Posts Tagged Steve Blake
Trade Fallout: So many trades, so few roster spots
Posted by fantasy hoopster in Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Pickups, Fantasy Basketball Rankings, Fantasy Basketball Strategy, Fantasy Basketball Trades, Fantasy Fallout on February 18, 2010
Wow, that was a busy trade season. I haven’t seen that many players swapped since baseball cards were still cool to collect. But since, realistically, most of us only had one or two roster spots to tinker with, how do we make sense of all the trade winners and losers? Well, here’s my preliminary ranking (by tiers) of guys who are available in 50+% of Yahoo leagues (at least, before the trading deadline):
MUST-OWNS
Andray Blatche
First game post-Jamison and Haywood said it all, even if it came against the undersized T-Wolves.
Omri Casspi
Put up top 50 numbers when Martin was out earlier this year, and is a clear building block of the franchise.
Tyrus Thomas
With ample playing time, expect some wild stl/blk stat lines in the future.
JaVale McGee (at least in deeper leagues)
Like Blatche, he had an eye-opening effort against the T-Wolves, Before that, he’s been very promising in stretches, albeit inconsistent. He’s in the top tier because of his upside and the fact that his FT% isn’t nearly as bad as another C I’ll mention below.
NICE-TO-OWNS
Taj Gibson
Should see a nice boost while Joakim Noah is out. Otherwise, at least he should enjoy a nice boost in confidence with Thomas gone.
Sergio Rodriguez
This guy might belong in the top tier if he can take Chris Duhon’s starting job, as has been rumored. He’s probably a must-own in deeper leagues based purely on speculation.
Tracy McGrady
It’s kind of sad I would rather own Sergio Rodriguez right now, but T-Mac probably has more upside than anyone on this list. He’s the true wild card of this group.
Josh Howard
Okay, he’s probably already taken in your league. But if not, I’d rank him right below T-Mac.
Rasual Butler
Al Thornton’s exit and Travis Outlaw’s uncertain return mean big minutes for Butler.
DeAndre Jordan
Mixed bag in first two games post-Marcus Camby. His upside is equal to McGee’s, but in his career as a starter he’s shooting a putrid 36% on a substantial 4.4 FT attempts per game. His inconsistency might not be worth that negative pressure.
Craig Smith
Doesn’t do much besides score and score efficiently. Those looking to make a last minute charge up the FG% ranks in roto leagues should consider him.
Francisco Garcia
He was a stud last year after the Kings traded away John Salmons. The only problem this year — Tyreke Evans, Donte Greene, and Omri Casspi are all emerging and playing well. And who knows what Larry Hughes’ role will be.
Donte Greene
See: Garcia, Francisco.
KEEP AN EYE ON
Nate Robinson
I dropped Nate for JaVale McGee in what was a needs-based move in one league, but BOS might actually be a good situation for Nate. You know they want to rest Ray Allen for the playoffs, so it’s possible Nate could get 25-30 mpg as an instant offense sixth man. Or, he could get the same minutes Eddie House was getting. Who knows? So keep an eye on him.
Nick Young
WAS is playing for the future, and Young would qualify as such. If you need 3’s, they might start falling soon…
Rudy Fernandez and Jerryd Bayless
Even with Steve Blake gone, these guys kind of cancel each other out. If Brandon Roy continues to be hampered by his hammy, both would enjoy instant upgrades.
Jared Jeffries and Hilton Armstrong
Jeffries’ skills are a perfect match for Houston’s style of play. However, he probably won’t get close to the minutes he was getting in NY. We’ll have to wait and see what that averages out to. And speaking of playing time, Armstrong will be battling Jeffries for the minutes that Carl Landry vacated in Houston. He hasn’t done much this year, but has been useful for stretches in the past.
Hakim Warrick
He doesn’t do much besides score, but CHI chose him over more defensive big men like Kurt Thomas and Francisco Elson for a reason. With Salmons gone, Warrick could be leaned on for some (unorthodox) post scoring.
Beno Udrih
Udrih was useful the first time Martin was missing games, but the return of Francisco Garcia complicates that backcourt enough for me to be cautiously optimistic about Udrih the rest of the way.
Al Thornton
A change of scenery might do him good, but he’s still playing behind Mike Miller and Howard.
IT’S NOT YOU, IT’S ME…
You might not want to cut some of these guys right away, but if you have to in order to snatch one of the “Must-Owns” I’d probably make the move.
Channing Frye
I’m sticking Frye on this list because he was probably hurt the most by the Suns’ inability to trade Amare Stoudemire. He could still very possibly get hot for multiple games at a time, but Robin Lopez is entrenched as the starter now, killing Frye’s consistency. (I’d hang onto him in deeper leagues though.)
J.J. Hickson and Anderson Varejao
Again, maybe wait at least a couple days before dropping these guys, but that CLE frontcourt is awfully crowded now. But do what you gotta do and don’t look back.
Drew Gooden
Looks like he’s staying in Clipperland, where he might actually be somewhat useful, but his upside is limited.
Ronnie Brewer and Charlie Bell
Brewer and Bell are headed to the MEM and MIL benches, and there are definitely more attractive fish in the sea.
Zydrunas Ilgauskas
If his contract is bought out, he’s worthless for 4 weeks. If he rejoins CLE or goes to DAL, it’s not much better.
Erick Dampier
I was down on him from the start. A broken finger sealed his fate.
Did I miss anyone? Of course I did. Feel free to let me know below…
Fantasy Fallout: Dumb and Dumber and Gilbert Arenas
Posted by fantasy hoopster in Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Pickups, Fantasy Basketball Strategy, Fantasy Fallout on January 6, 2010
Guns don’t kill fantasy seasons. Gilbert Arenas does.
Gilbert Arenas has been suspended indefinitely by David Stern. Randy Foye looks like the likely starter for now, while others who will receive an immediate bump in value include Mike Miller, Caron Butler, and Earl Boykins. Since Butler’s only available in one-on-one fantasy leagues, I prefer Miller first, then Foye. In fact, run out and pick up Miller now. I’ll explain below.
And — this is purely speculation — keep an eye on disgruntled point guards and crowded backcourts across the land, such as the Andre Miller/Steve Blake mess in Portland, Nate Robinson in NY, T.J. Ford in Indy, and Kirk Hinrich in Chi-town. These guys’ names have been floated around all season, but since there’s nothing certain, I’ll focus on the guys in Wizards uni’s.
Gilbert Arenas
If you own Arenas, you probably have to wait just a little bit — a few days? a week? — to see if this might be a temporary thing. But it’s probably not going to be. In the meantime, instead of yelling at ESPN, feel free to watch Arenas’ life implode real-time on his Twitter page.
UPDATE: Uh, scratch that “wait just a little bit” part. According to the reliable Adrian Wojnarowski, Arenas is likely done for the year.
Caron Butler
First of all, if you own Butler you can breathe a sigh of relief… for now. If things stay as they are (i.e., the Wizards don’t make any moves), I see no reason why Butler won’t regain his top 20 form from last year. He’s already been regaining his shooting touch in recent weeks. But the reason I added the “for now” part is because there are rumors the Wizards might blow up the whole team now. If Butler gets traded to, say, Chicago as one rumor has it, his value immediately drops in that crowded SF situation. If you own him, let him put up a few monster lines and then try to trade for a top 25ish guy if you’re worried about a potential trade. If you’re trying to trade for him, tread with caution.
Mike Miller
Since Butler is obviously probably already taken, I’d prefer Miller first, then Foye, then Boykins. Here’s why: Miller has the healthiest percentages of the group and has a real chance to average 4+ reb and ast while contributing 1+ threes and stl. It might not look that sexy on paper, but he’s a safe bet to be the highest ranked player of these three.
Randy Foye and Earl Boykins
Foye has been a starter in the past (though for the lowly T-Wolves) and can score if the Wizards call on him to do so. However, the Wizards already have plenty of guys who can score (Butler and Antawn Jamison, anyone?) so they may try to force Foye into that PG spot, much like MIN did, which didn’t work out too well now did it. But the Wizards probably wanted Foye as some Arenas insurance in the first place (little did they know it would be for Gil’s dumb ass rather than his bum knee), so he’ll get his chance. Bottom line: I wouldn’t be surprised if he averages something in the neighborhood of 15, 3, and 4 with 1.X threes, but I’d expect a lot of inconsistency too.
Who should you drop for Foye? I just decided not to drop Nate Robinson, but if you’re sick of someone like T.J. Ford who isn’t perfect (lack of threes) when he starts anyway, I’d probably make the move for Foye. (Again, just keep an eye on the situation as Ford could potentially replace Foye in real life via trade.) Also, if someone just beat you to picking up Rafer Alston, who was just dealt to Miami and will start for the Heat, Foye is a nice consolation. I think they’ll put up similar numbers, with Foye scoring more and Rafer hitting some more 3’s at a worse FG%.
As for Little Earl Boykins (why do I always feel compelled to add “Little” before his name), he could be a sneaky pick-up in deeper leagues, but just as (if not more) inconsistent than Foye.
Andray Blatche, Nick Young, JaVale McGee, etc.
And if the Wizards do use this as an unexpected gift/excuse to void Arenas’ contract and blow up the team, look for some of the young guys to get a spike in value. It’s all speculative now, but be ready to jump on Blatche if Butler or Jamison get shipped out.
And although it’s unlikely, wouldn’t it be kind of awesome if Javaris Crittenton was the biggest benefactor of all?
Player Spotlight: Is the “old” Brandon Jennings back?
Posted by fantasy hoopster in Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Strategy on December 10, 2009

See that look in his eyes? It's called infrared court vision. (Getty Images)
Brandon Jennings finally found the bottom of the net again last night, “breaking out” of an ugly shooting slump. (He also hyperextended his knee in the third quarter, although it seems to be no big deal.) Sure, it’s nice that he shot an Andrew Bogut-like FG% vs the Raptors, and I’ve been begging owners to be patient with Young Money and not to sell low on him, but does it really mean he broke out of his slump? Or is something else going on here? The answer might be in the splits…
Jennings at home: 25.5 ppg, 5.9 apg, 3.6 rpg, 3.0 3pg, 47.9% FG, 56.9% 3PT, 80.4% FT
Jennings on the road: 16.4 ppg, 5.5 apg, 4.0 rpg, 1.4 3pg, 34.4% FG, 28.6% 3PT, 78.8% FT
Those are pretty drastic differences, especially in PTS, 3PM, and FG%. (Of course, let’s not forget the double-nickel vs GS at home.) Sure enough, his 10-game shooting slump started with the Bucks’ longest road trip of the year, at Memphis back on Nov. 21, with 7 of those 10 games on the road.
Does that mean Jennings is going to put up top 20 numbers at home and only top 100 numbers on the road? Or did he just happen to hit a rough patch (with defenses finally learning how to slow him down) during a long road stretch? I’m taking the safe answer here and going straight down the middle. (I know. How bold of me!) Both of those factors — opposing teams’ gang-tackle defense and a long road trip — contributed to the rookie’s first slump.
So what? Is the slump over?
If you are a (once-again) proud Jennings owner, hopefully you didn’t bail on him over the last couple weeks. I expect those home and road splits to even out over the course of the year, although I wouldn’t be surprised if the home stats still look considerably better when all’s said and done. But has he broken out of his slump? Yes and no. Yes, I think he has stopped the bleeding. However, I’m not expecting him to start another hot streak right away. Sure, he could torch Steve Blake and Derek Fisher in the next two games at home, but I think we’ll see some middle-of-the-road numbers over the next month or so.
However, it’s looking more and more like Jennings’ FG% will be sub-45% on the year, as he’s had one insanely hot stretch and one insanely cold stretch, and it’s all averaged out to 41.8% so far. It also puts him at #57 in Yahoo rankings (by averages) on the year, although he’s probably ranked higher in ESPN leagues, most of which don’t count TO. I think the PTS, REB, AST, and 3’s are here to stay, so his ultimate ranking depends on that FG%. I’ve been saying for a while that I think he’ll finish in the top 50, although I amended that to “flirting with the top 50″ a couple weeks back if his FG% sunk. (Note: There are also several other factors at play here, including Michael Redd’s return and Luke Ridnour’s emergence at the PG spot, shifting Jennings to SG for long stretches, so nothing is ever certain in fantasy.)
In other words, if people have been lobbing trade offers at you (and I would expect them to pick up again), I’d still target a safe top 50 player at the least, although you could probably get much better if you waited for another Jennings hot streak. If you absolutely can’t stand his streakiness, I’d take my time getting the best offer possible, but just beware of the Bucks’ extended road trip starting January 10 (6 games, although 2 of them are against fantasy-friendly squads in PHO and GSW).
I actually recently traded Jennings for Paul Pierce in one roto league where my FG% is keeping me out of the top spot, as Pierce is enjoying his most efficient year in a while. (No, I don’t think he can sustain 49.6% FG, but he’s taking more efficient shots while providing Jennings-esque across-the-board production. But more on that in a different post.) I’m hanging onto Jennings in my other leagues though, unless an “offer I can’t refuse” comes along.
By the way… yes, I’m looking forward to that SAC/MIL matchup next week. Can you say “Rookie Smackdown”?
Fantasy Fallout, Rumor Edition: Tyrus Thomas, Tracy McGrady, Andre Miller, and Elton Brand
Posted by fantasy hoopster in Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Pickups, Fantasy Basketball Strategy, Fantasy Fallout on December 4, 2009
Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports just posted a must-read article on the latest trade rumors in the NBA. Some highlights:

Is Thomas the next Stoudemire? Marion? Or just the next heckling target for New Yorkers? (Getty Images)
Tyrus Thomas
“Several sources believe the Bulls are agreeable to a package of Thomas and Jerome James for Knicks forward Al Harrington.”
Mike D’Antoni has apparently coveted Thomas’ athleticism for years, although I’m not exactly sure how Thomas would be used on offense. Is he more the Shawn Marion or Amare Stoudemire type?… because he seems somewhere in between and not necessarily in a good way, although I can’t really pinpoint why. Maybe because he’s more generally regarded as a defensive player. Anyway, he takes a nice speculative bump in value going to that open offense and is worth a roster spot if you can afford it.
Meanwhile, Al Harrington could be taking Ben Gordon’s old 6th man/instant offense role, but going to a more structured offense makes it hard to predict exactly how his value will be affected. It probably goes down though, as Al likely can’t jack up 5 three-pt attempts per game anywhere outside of NY or GS.
And even though Al would be coming in, Taj Gibson gets a nice boost in confidence/value, while it becomes more likely that Joakim Noah can maintain his nice start. (I was thinking of selling high on him as late as last week, but will hold off on that until news breaks.)
Tracy McGrady
“Houston seems willing to take back a longer-term contract for McGrady, but most executives believe his high salary makes it hard to put together a package.
“Rockets GM Daryl Morey and coach Rick Adelman don’t want McGrady back with the team, and have insisted that he isn’t physically ready to return to the lineup. McGrady would love a trade, but knows he must start playing again for it to be possible.”
This situation seems messier and messier to me, although this is the first “new” news I’ve heard in a while. (And updating my last post here, apparently there are T-Mac trade rumors. Of course!) In my last post, I also said this all reminded me of Allen Iverson’s past couple weeks, but it actually might be more reminiscent of the Stephen Jackson situation in GSW.
Remember that night Jackson got benched the entire second half when things got really heated/awkward, then played almost the entire next game? It’s called “showcasing”… and I’m guessing the Rockets are waiting for the right time (i.e., until T-Mac is absolutely healthy) to showcase his skills and ship him off. To where? Who knows. But a lot of New Yorkers on this message board from The Knicks Blog think it will be, you got it, the Knicks.
Andre Miller
“Sources say that Brandon Roy clearly prefers playing with Blake over Miller, and that’s an issue that Pritchard must contend with.”
This all stems from the Blazers’ need to fill the gap left by Travis Outlaw’s injury. It’s great news for anyone who recently picked Steve Blake off waivers. I’ve been saying I’d rather own him than Miller all year, so gooo me! (Unfortunately I don’t own him in any leagues though. So, hypooocrite!) It’s probably good news for any Miller owners too, as he’s clearly good enough to start on most NBA teams and this seems like more of a personal preference (on Brandon Roy’s part) rather than a big character issue that would hurt Miller’s value.
Elton Brand
“Sixers GM Ed Stefanski is desperate to unload forward Elton Brand and the $66 million owed over the remaining four years of his crippling contract, sources say, but that will be incredibly difficult.”
Not totally surprising, and hey, maybe that’s why he was getting big minutes before his hamstring got overheated. (Showcasing, anyone? No wait. That Marreese Speights guy got injured. Anyway.) Doesn’t look like anything will happen, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.
Fantasy Basketball Draft Rankings: 11-20
Posted by fantasy hoopster in Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Draft, Fantasy Basketball Rankings on September 30, 2009
Fantasy basketball draft rankings: 11-20
These rankings are based on a standard 9-category format, with a slight leaning towards H2H leagues, although differing strategies for roto leagues are noted when applicable.
| Player | Team | POS | Analysis | |
| 11 | Dwight Howard | ORL | C | It’s the same old story with Howard. Is it worth sacrificing FT% to dominate in FG%, REB, and BLK? Yes, in H2H leagues if you decide to punt FT%. In roto leagues you would need to draft the likes of a Kevin Martin or Chancey Billups later to have a shot in FT%. Personally I like Big Al and Amare better. Things get a little fuzzier with Bosh and Pau – it just depends on your personal strategy. |
| 12 | Chris Bosh | TOR | PF, C | Like Al Jefferson, Bosh will give you 20+ and 10 with nearly a steal per game. Given his track record, he’s probably a slightly safer bet as well. The only downside is his mediocre 1.0 bpg. But if you’re confident you can account for that elsewhere, Bosh should be in store for a nice bump in efficiency this year, with a healthy Calderon and newly-acquired Turkoglu setting him up. |
| 13 | Pau Gasol | LAK | PF, C | Some people are taking Pau in the first round, but I’d wait until early second. Just take a look at Pau’s splits with (18 and 9) and without (21 and 10) Bynum last season. Of course Pau’s real value is in his FG%, but I’m betting on Bynum to play 60+ games this year, which means Pau’s final numbers should be closer to the former. |
| 14 | Brandon Roy | POR | SG | He’s officially a fantasy stud, but the biggest question is how Andre Miller will affect him. A steady Steve Blake already ate into Roy’s assist numbers last year, so you’d have to think those will take another slight hit. However, the %s and scoring might creep up with a more experienced floor general at the helm. |
| 15 | Andre Iguodala | PHI | SG, SF | With shoot-first Louis Williams replacing pass-first Andre Miller at PG, AI will probably control the ball more and pad his AST. Unfortunately, Miller’s departure might also negatively affect AI’s FG% and TO. (And AI’s owners already have to deal with his subpar FT%.) With a healthy Brand back in the lineup, AI’s scoring might not go up as much as expected, but it’s hard to argue against the AST value from a forward. |
| 16 | Chauncey Billips | DEN | PG | Billups is a stud PG who, like Nash, has seemingly defied Father Time. Although Nash has higher FG% and AST, I give Billups a slight edge b/c of his superior 3PM and STL. Many think having a year in Denver under his belt will lead to a slight boost in Billups’ numbers, although I think it will be negligible considering his age. In H2H leagues, I give a clear nod to Billups given Denver’s great schedule. |
| 17 | Steve Nash | PHO | PG | This guy never ceases to amaze me. After a slow start last year, Nash was back to around 10 apg the rest of the year when PHO returned to its shoot-early offense. With Shaq out of town, expect more of the same. The biggest question mark: Will his 3PM return to the 2+ range? If so he will be a steal here. If not, he’s still a solid building block. |
| 18 | Joe Johnson | ATL | PG, SG | ATL is still Joe Johnson’s team. The addition of Jamal Crawford will more likely negatively impact Bibby. I was surprised Johnson’s FG% wasn’t closer to the mid-40s last season playing off a capable set-up man in Bibby. Now that he’ll be playing off two capable set-up men nearly every second he’s on the court, I expect his FG% to get back to his early ATL years. |
| 19 | Tim Duncan | SA | PF, C | While still a solid fantasy C, Duncan’s minutes have declined in 7 of the last 8 seasons. His numbers have followed suit. Dissecting the stats another way, his minutes also declined month-to-month last year, to the point where he was essentially a glorified David Lee during the fantasy playoffs. While I wouldn’t mind owning him, I’d rather take a quality wing or guard at this point in the draft and target an up-and-coming C later. (See: Lopez, Biedrins, Horford.) |
| 20 | Carmelo Anthony | DEN | SF | Melo has come a long way in fantasy hoops. Once a notorious “brand name” player who only provided scoring, Melo has steadily raised his 3PM (not to mention 3P%) the last four years. He’s gotten his REB to a respectable level for a SF, and his AST and STL are above average for his position. He started last year in a horrible shooting slump en route to his worst FG% since his sophomore year, but now that he’s found his groove with Chauncey, I expect him to shoot 47-49% next year. |











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