Posts Tagged Steve Blake

Trade Fallout: So many trades, so few roster spots

Wow, that was a busy trade season.  I haven’t seen that many players swapped since baseball cards were still cool to collect.  But since, realistically, most of us only had one or two roster spots to tinker with, how do we make sense of all the trade winners and losers?  Well, here’s my preliminary ranking (by tiers) of guys who are available in 50+% of Yahoo leagues (at least, before the trading deadline):

MUST-OWNS

Andray Blatche

First game post-Jamison and Haywood said it all, even if it came against the undersized T-Wolves.

Omri Casspi

Put up top 50 numbers when Martin was out earlier this year, and is a clear building block of the franchise.

Tyrus Thomas

With ample playing time, expect some wild stl/blk stat lines in the future.

JaVale McGee (at least in deeper leagues)

Like Blatche, he had an eye-opening effort against the T-Wolves,  Before that, he’s been very promising in stretches, albeit inconsistent.  He’s in the top tier because of his upside and the fact that his FT% isn’t nearly as bad as another C I’ll mention below.

NICE-TO-OWNS

Taj Gibson

Should see a nice boost while Joakim Noah is out.  Otherwise, at least he should enjoy a nice boost in confidence with Thomas gone.

Sergio Rodriguez

This guy might belong in the top tier if he can take Chris Duhon’s starting job, as has been rumored.  He’s probably a must-own in deeper leagues based purely on speculation.

Tracy McGrady

It’s kind of sad I would rather own Sergio Rodriguez right now, but T-Mac probably has more upside than anyone on this list.  He’s the true wild card of this group.

Josh Howard

Okay, he’s probably already taken in your league.  But if not, I’d rank him right below T-Mac.

Rasual Butler

Al Thornton’s exit and Travis Outlaw’s uncertain return mean big minutes for Butler.

DeAndre Jordan

Mixed bag in first two games post-Marcus Camby.  His upside is equal to McGee’s, but in his career as a starter he’s shooting a putrid 36% on a substantial 4.4 FT attempts per game.  His inconsistency might not be worth that negative pressure.

Craig Smith

Doesn’t do much besides score and score efficiently.  Those looking to make a last minute charge up the FG% ranks in roto leagues should consider him.

Francisco Garcia

He was a stud last year after the Kings traded away John Salmons.  The only problem this year — Tyreke Evans, Donte Greene, and Omri Casspi are all emerging and playing well.  And who knows what Larry Hughes’ role will be.

Donte Greene

See: Garcia, Francisco.

KEEP AN EYE ON

Nate Robinson

I dropped Nate for JaVale McGee in what was a needs-based move in one league, but BOS might actually be a good situation for Nate.  You know they want to rest Ray Allen for the playoffs, so it’s possible Nate could get 25-30 mpg as an instant offense sixth man.  Or, he could get the same minutes Eddie House was getting.  Who knows?  So keep an eye on him.

Nick Young

WAS is playing for the future, and Young would qualify as such.  If you need 3’s, they might start falling soon…

Rudy Fernandez and Jerryd Bayless

Even with Steve Blake gone, these guys kind of cancel each other out.  If Brandon Roy continues to be hampered by his hammy, both would enjoy instant upgrades.

Jared Jeffries and Hilton Armstrong

Jeffries’ skills are a perfect match for Houston’s style of play.  However, he probably won’t get close to the minutes he was getting in NY.  We’ll have to wait and see what that averages out to.  And speaking of playing time, Armstrong will be battling Jeffries for the minutes that Carl Landry vacated in Houston.  He hasn’t done much this year, but has been useful for stretches in the past.

Hakim Warrick

He doesn’t do much besides score, but CHI chose him over more defensive big men like Kurt Thomas and Francisco Elson for a reason.  With Salmons gone, Warrick could be leaned on for some (unorthodox) post scoring.

Beno Udrih

Udrih was useful the first time Martin was missing games, but the return of Francisco Garcia complicates that backcourt enough for me to be cautiously optimistic about Udrih the rest of the way.

Al Thornton

A change of scenery might do him good, but he’s still playing behind Mike Miller and Howard.

IT’S NOT YOU, IT’S ME…

You might not want to cut some of these guys right away, but if you have to in order to snatch one of the “Must-Owns” I’d probably make the move.

Channing Frye

I’m sticking Frye on this list because he was probably hurt the most by the Suns’ inability to trade Amare Stoudemire.  He could still very possibly get hot for multiple games at a time, but Robin Lopez is entrenched as the starter now, killing Frye’s consistency.  (I’d hang onto him in deeper leagues though.)

J.J. Hickson and Anderson Varejao

Again, maybe wait at least a couple days before dropping these guys, but that CLE frontcourt is awfully crowded now. But do what you gotta do and don’t look back.

Drew Gooden

Looks like he’s staying in Clipperland, where he might actually be somewhat useful, but his upside is limited.

Ronnie Brewer and Charlie Bell

Brewer and Bell are headed to the MEM and MIL benches, and there are definitely more attractive fish in the sea.

Zydrunas Ilgauskas

If his contract is bought out, he’s worthless for 4 weeks.  If he rejoins CLE or goes to DAL, it’s not much better.

Erick Dampier

I was down on him from the start.  A broken finger sealed his fate.

Did I miss anyone?  Of course I did.  Feel free to let me know below…

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Trade Fallout: Marcus Camby (about to be) traded for Pennies on the Dollar

I was about to post a Western Conference edition of my previous Trade Winds post, but since the action is already in motion, let’s just evaluate the imminent trade that will send Marcus Camby to the Blazers for Steve Blake, Travis Outlaw, and a bucket of beers.

Biggest winner: Jerryd Bayless will be a popular add over the next few days, but it’s hard for me to get too excited about him with Brandon Roy coming back soon and Rudy Fernandez healthy again.  He could have a nice week if Roy misses more time though, and has been useful when getting ~25 mpg, which is a real possibility now.  I think the two guys who stand to benefit the most are DeAndre Jordan and Craig SmithIf you need to hit a homerun to win your league, I’d take a chance on Jordan — consider him a poor man’s Camby.  Smith, meanwhile, could be a great addition for those in roto leagues looking for help in FG%.  (And even as I’m hyping them both, I also have to point out both will negatively impact your FT%, especially Jordan.)

Keep an eye on: Baron Davis.  Now that the Clippers have officially waved the white flag (yes, I know, I actually predicted they’d make the playoffs this year, and they were in contention as late as mid-January, when they proceeded to lose 8 of 9 games), it’ll be that much harder for Davis to bring his game every night.  The Clippers already put up an awful effort against Golden State in their last game before the break — perhaps they knew a big trade was already in the works.  Who knows, maybe Davis will still bring it and continue bringing it late into the season, but if I were in a H2H league I might start exploring trade options for B-Diddy.

Andre Miller is a wild card too.  This is definitely a great vote of confidence for him, and he’s been playing well (for the most part) lately.  But with Roy coming back soon, any boost in motivation might be offset by Roy’s inevitable 20, 5, and 5 every night.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he continues putting up his current February splits of 14 ppg and 7 apg — basically the Andre Miller of old.

Biggest loser: LaMarcus Aldridge was finally starting to get his rebounding stats to respectability, averaging a shade under 10 rpg in February without Greg Oden or Joel Przybilla.  Now he has to contend with a more voracious rebounder than either of those guys.  Plus, with Roy coming back, LA won’t be called upon to score as much.  He’ll still be very useful, just not nearly as good as he has been recently.  It also looks like one of my favorite waiver guys, Rasual Butler, and Al Thornton might see a slight dip in minutes/production with Outlaw (eventually) coming aboard, while Juwan Howard is now droppable in most formats.

Which big man would you prefer on your team?

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Week 12 Recap (Raaaaaaaandy!) and Week 13 Pickups

Week 12 featured a franchise quickly forgetting its (once) franchise player, the return of another (once?) franchise player in Sacramento, and the continued (and now seemingly sustainable) dominance of a player playing with a purpose.

(By the way, “Raaaaaaaandy!” is actually spelled exactly correctly.  It’s a reference to Aziz Ansari’s character in the movie Funny People.  Check it out at LaughYourDickOff.com.  Yes, you read that right.)

Randy Foye got off to such a hot start as Agent 0's replacement, you knew Fantasy Hoopster had to trade him.  (Getty Images)

Randy Foye got off to such a hot start as Agent 0's replacement, you knew Fantasy Hoopster had to trade him. (Getty Images)

Randy Foye

Gilbert who?  Life went on in WAS without Gilbert Arenas, with Antawn Jamison picking up much of the slack.  But it was Foye who particular impressed this past week, playing the best stretch of his year, so of course I just traded him.  Was it the right move?  Who knows, but here’s my reasoning.

Reasons to sell high: He’s shooting well above his career FG% right now.  If Caron Butler or Jamison gets traded, that might translate into more points but at a less efficient rate, which equals a bad tradeoff in my mind (at least for my particular team).  Also, when Mike Miller returns that’ll likely dent into Foye’s AST totals.

Reasons to keep: Apparently he has the reins to the team.  He took shots at the end of both overtimes (missing both) against Chicago.  Maybe he just needed a new setting and style of offense to excel.  His only (current) competition at PG is technically considered a dwarf in certain countries.

Obviously, I leaned towards the former.  In my trade, I packaged Foye along with Andre Iguodala (I also threw in Yi Jianlian) for Dwyane Wade and a couple scrubs who I plan to drop for Luke Ridnour and another player to be determined.  Yes, I know I overpaid, but the trade made sense to me for several reasons, which I might point out in another post if people are interested.

Also, going back to an earlier post when Arenas was first suspended, back then I decided not to drop Nate Robinson for Foye, but then quickly decided to drop Tyrus Thomas instead.  I’m sure most of you have already figured out Foye is currently the hottest player of all three, although as exhibited on Saturday night, he’s not perfect.

Kevin Martin

Martin returned this week and quickly resumed draining threes again.  That’s not too surprising.  The more interesting subplot (or is it main plot now?) to this story involves his effect on a couple of Sacto’s rising rookies: Tyreke Evans and Omri Casspi.

Two games isn’t much of a sample, but it appears as if Evans won’t be affected too much at all — he still controlled the ball for the most part and his shot attempts were still there — while Casspi’s role in the offense was reduced.  This isn’t too surprising; even though Martin just signed a nice extension, I’d argue Evans is Sacto’s new franchise player now.  It’s still early, but I’m glad I didn’t advise anyone to sell high on Evans.  Sadly, I also didn’t have enough balls to advise trading for him from a panicked manager who might’ve sold him on the cheap.  Either way, if you own Evans I’d breathe a slight sigh of relief, although everything is fluid in fantasy of course.

As for Casspi, I think some of those shot attempts might come back, but probably not at a consistent enough level for him to be mentioned in the fantasy ROY race anymore.  Evans and Martin are going to get their shots, so that probably means a lot of inconsistency for the rest of the Kings, especially Casspi.

ROY Race

This hasn’t been much of a race lately, at least not between Brandon Jennings and Tyreke Evans.  (Hello, Stephen Curry with your 6 stl/fouls against MIL on Friday night.)  I just mentioned Evans has a great chance to retain most of his value even with KevMart back, but it’s the absence of Michael Redd that might revitalize Jennings’ season.  Jennings is clearly a rhythm shooter, and he never quite found the rhythm (or volume) for his shots with Redd back.  But now that he (and Andrew Bogut) are the primary offensive options in MIL again, Jennings has a chance to get back to his old numbers… although I wouldn’t expect him to shoot above 40%.  If you can handle the ugly shooting, you might be able to snag him with a lowball offer.

Samuel Dalembert

Dalembert has been on a tear the entire month of January, and his last couple games have been particularly sweet.  In the past, I’ve recommended him as a waiver wire pickup that people should sell high on if possible because of his historic inconsistency, but I think I’m changing my tune now, for two (non-stat-based) reasons.

Dalembert’s productivity (along with a lot of other NBA players) is often directly related to his motivation/focus.  Well non-stat-based reason #1 that I like Sammy D the rest of the way is because he really plays with more passion whenever Allen Iverson is on the court.  Back when Iverson was first signed by the 76ers, I mentioned Dalembert even had dreams that AI would return to the squad.  Man-crush or motivation?  Who knows, but it’s translated into great numbers for Sammy D.

Non-stat-based reason #2, on the other hand, is no joking matter at all.  Dalembert is a native Haitian, and in the two games since the tragedy in Haiti, a lot of people have been saying he’s played with a clear focus (14.5 ppg and 16.5 rpg with 2 bpg while shooting a combined 13-15 from the floor).  I hate to bring reality into a blog about pure fantasy, but if you’ve ever had something absolutely shitty happen to you in real life, I’m sure you can relate with “focusing on work” as a temporary escape.  I don’t think NBA players are an exception to that, and it looks like Dalembert might be playing with a heavy heart from here on out.

By the way, there are a ton of ways to help out with the earthquake in Haiti.  Here’s one organization that’s already been working there for 20 years that some friends of mine have volunteered for.  It’s called Partners in Health, and I know they make a difference if you’re worried about how your donations are spent.

standwithhaiti

And in other Week 12 (fantasy) news:

As the guys at GiveMeTheRock point out, Charlotte is on a roll, led by none other than Stephen JacksonGerald Wallace and Raymond Felton are still playing well, but the other big fantasy news out of CHA is Boris Diaw, who is finally adjusting to his new teammate.  Buy low if you can.

In LA, Pau Gasol returned from injury, and Andrew Bynum decided to put up another great line.  This is encouraging news if you own Bynum, although I wouldn’t expect it to be the norm.  I still expect Bynum to have many more night like this, but with some mediocre games sprinkled in.

In Chicago, Joakim Noah is on fire from the free throw line and the sole reason why I’ve risen a couple spots in that category so far this month in one roto league.

In Indiana, Roy Hibbert is on fire from everywhere… and that’s with Danny Granger and Troy Murphy back.  Remember when I said he’d average a double-double with 2 bpg back when he was mired in a slump?  Even I laughed at myself.  Expect some inconsistency, but I’m glad/relieved I still have him in all my leagues.

WEEK 13 PICKUPS

Since my top pick from last week is still owned in less than half of Yahoo leagues, I’ll just mention Kirk Hinrich (49%) first.  Okay, there.  Now onto to some fresh meat.

Rasual Butler (26%)

Just in case you were wondering who that guy who keeps hitting 3's for your team looks like... (Getty Images)

Just in case you were wondering who that guy who keeps hitting 3's for your team looks like... (Getty Images)

Okay, so he’s not exactly fresh because this is probably the fourth time he’s made this list.  Also, I alluded to this earlier in the week, but with Blake Griffin out for the year, both Butler and Al Thornton don’t have to look over their shoulders quite as much anymore.  I much prefer Butler (as does Mike Dunleavy Sr.), and he has a real chance to keep up his current pace of 13.8 ppg with 1.7 threes as starting SF (including 33 pts and 4 treys versus the Cavs Saturday night), albeit with some inconsistency.

DeJuan Blair (23%)

I mentioned Blair in a recent Eye-Opening Lines post.  Since then, the undersized center had 8 and 8 in a foul-plagued game against MEM.  If you need a big man, check him out.

Luke Ridnour (38%), Ersan Ilyasova (38%), and Carlos Delfino (6%)

I mentioned these guys last week, and I still like them to benefit from Michael Redd’s season-ending injury (roughly in this order).  At one point earlier in the year, Ridnour was actually ranked in the top 50 as he was an efficient source of 3’s and ast.  Meanwhile Ilyasova had already been solid in recent weeks, while Delfino exploded for 28 pts in his last game.

Robin Lopez (7%)

I’ve been waiting for Lopez to eat into Channing Frye’s minutes all year and it finally happened last week.  In PHO’s two most recent games, Lopez averaged 12.5 ppg and 4.5 bpg in 27 mpg (all season highs).  One of the games was a blowout; one was highly contested.  I’m not sure if this is a trend, but pay close to attention if you need blk.

Some guys I’ve spent plenty of ink on already:

Mike Miller (37% — no official word on return, but should be owned in most leagues), Martell Webster (47%), Matt Barnes (29% — if you’re worried about Rashard Lewis, it’s actually Barnes and not Vince Carter who is hurting him more)

Some other guys to keep an eye on:

Corey Brewer (34%), Jonas Jerebko (7% — back in the starting lineup…for now), Delonte West (21%), Steve Blake (10% — still hitting 3’s as a sub), Vladimir Radmanovic (5% — check status), Chuck Hayes (12% — last week’s averages were inflated by a monster 3OT game, but he was relevant earlier in the year), Earl Watson (10%), Jared Jeffries (1% — still a cheap source of stl/blk), James Posey (5%), Shannon Brown (2%), DeAndre Jordan (3% — check Chris Kaman’s status)

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Fantasy Fallout: Dumb and Dumber and Gilbert Arenas

Guns don’t kill fantasy seasons.  Gilbert Arenas does.

Gilbert Arenas has been suspended indefinitely by David Stern.  Randy Foye looks like the likely starter for now, while others who will receive an immediate bump in value include Mike Miller, Caron Butler, and Earl Boykins.  Since Butler’s only available in one-on-one fantasy leagues, I prefer Miller first, then Foye.  In fact, run out and pick up Miller now.  I’ll explain below.

And — this is purely speculation — keep an eye on disgruntled point guards and crowded backcourts across the land, such as the Andre Miller/Steve Blake mess in Portland, Nate Robinson in NY, T.J. Ford in Indy, and Kirk Hinrich in Chi-town.  These guys’ names have been floated around all season, but since there’s nothing certain, I’ll focus on the guys in Wizards uni’s.

Gilbert Arenas

If you own Arenas, you probably have to wait just a little bit — a few days?  a week? — to see if this might be a temporary thing.  But it’s probably not going to be.  In the meantime, instead of yelling at ESPN, feel free to watch Arenas’ life implode real-time on his Twitter page.

UPDATE: Uh, scratch that “wait just a little bit” part.  According to the reliable Adrian Wojnarowski, Arenas is likely done for the year.

Caron Butler

First of all, if you own Butler you can breathe a sigh of relief… for now.  If things stay as they are (i.e., the Wizards don’t make any moves), I see no reason why Butler won’t regain his top 20 form from last year.  He’s already been regaining his shooting touch in recent weeks.  But the reason I added the “for now” part is because there are rumors the Wizards might blow up the whole team now.  If Butler gets traded to, say, Chicago as one rumor has it, his value immediately drops in that crowded SF situation.  If you own him, let him put up a few monster lines and then try to trade for a top 25ish guy if you’re worried about a potential trade.  If you’re trying to trade for him, tread with caution.

Mike Miller

Since Butler is obviously probably already taken, I’d prefer Miller first, then Foye, then Boykins.  Here’s why: Miller has the healthiest percentages of the group and has a real chance to average 4+ reb and ast while contributing 1+ threes and stl.  It might not look that sexy on paper, but he’s a safe bet to be the highest ranked player of these three.

Randy Foye and Earl Boykins

Foye has been a starter in the past (though for the lowly T-Wolves) and can score if the Wizards call on him to do so.  However, the Wizards already have plenty of guys who can score (Butler and Antawn Jamison, anyone?) so they may try to force Foye into that PG spot, much like MIN did, which didn’t work out too well now did it.  But the Wizards probably wanted Foye as some Arenas insurance in the first place (little did they know it would be for Gil’s dumb ass rather than his bum knee), so he’ll get his chance.  Bottom line: I wouldn’t be surprised if he averages something in the neighborhood of 15, 3, and 4 with 1.X threes, but I’d expect a lot of inconsistency too.

Who should you drop for Foye?  I just decided not to drop Nate Robinson, but if you’re sick of someone like T.J. Ford who isn’t perfect (lack of threes) when he starts anyway, I’d probably make the move for Foye.  (Again, just keep an eye on the situation as Ford could potentially replace Foye in real life via trade.)  Also, if someone just beat you to picking up Rafer Alston, who was just dealt to Miami and will start for the Heat, Foye is a nice consolation.  I think they’ll put up similar numbers, with Foye scoring more and Rafer hitting some more 3’s at a worse FG%.

As for Little Earl Boykins (why do I always feel compelled to add “Little” before his name), he could be a sneaky pick-up in deeper leagues, but just as (if not more) inconsistent than Foye.

Andray Blatche, Nick Young, JaVale McGee, etc.

And if the Wizards do use this as an unexpected gift/excuse to void Arenas’ contract and blow up the team, look for some of the young guys to get a spike in value.  It’s all speculative now, but be ready to jump on Blatche if Butler or Jamison get shipped out.

And although it’s unlikely, wouldn’t it be kind of awesome if Javaris Crittenton was the biggest benefactor of all?

Which PG would you most want to own right now?

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Player Spotlight: Is the “old” Brandon Jennings back?

See that look in his eyes?  It's called infrared court vision.  (Getty Images)

See that look in his eyes? It's called infrared court vision. (Getty Images)

Brandon Jennings finally found the bottom of the net again last night, “breaking out” of an ugly shooting slump.  (He also hyperextended his knee in the third quarter, although it seems to be no big deal.)  Sure, it’s nice that he shot an Andrew Bogut-like FG% vs the Raptors, and I’ve been begging owners to be patient with Young Money and not to sell low on him, but does it really mean he broke out of his slump?  Or is something else going on here?  The answer might be in the splits

Jennings at home: 25.5 ppg, 5.9 apg, 3.6 rpg, 3.0 3pg, 47.9% FG, 56.9% 3PT, 80.4% FT

Jennings on the road: 16.4 ppg, 5.5 apg, 4.0 rpg, 1.4 3pg, 34.4% FG, 28.6% 3PT, 78.8% FT

Those are pretty drastic differences, especially in PTS, 3PM, and FG%.  (Of course, let’s not forget the double-nickel vs GS at home.)  Sure enough, his 10-game shooting slump started with the Bucks’ longest road trip of the year, at Memphis back on Nov. 21, with 7 of those 10 games on the road.

Does that mean Jennings is going to put up top 20 numbers at home and only top 100 numbers on the road?  Or did he just happen to hit a rough patch (with defenses finally learning how to slow him down) during a long road stretch?  I’m taking the safe answer here and going straight down the middle.  (I know.  How bold of me!)  Both of those factors — opposing teams’ gang-tackle defense and a long road trip — contributed to the rookie’s first slump.

So what?  Is the slump over?

If you are a (once-again) proud Jennings owner, hopefully you didn’t bail on him over the last couple weeks.  I expect those home and road splits to even out over the course of the year, although I wouldn’t be surprised if the home stats still look considerably better when all’s said and done.  But has he broken out of his slump?  Yes and no.  Yes, I think he has stopped the bleeding.  However, I’m not expecting him to start another hot streak right away.  Sure, he could torch Steve Blake and Derek Fisher in the next two games at home, but I think we’ll see some middle-of-the-road numbers over the next month or so.

However, it’s looking more and more like Jennings’ FG% will be sub-45% on the year, as he’s had one insanely hot stretch and one insanely cold stretch, and it’s all averaged out to 41.8% so far.  It also puts him at #57 in Yahoo rankings (by averages) on the year, although he’s probably ranked higher in ESPN leagues, most of which don’t count TO.  I think the PTS, REB, AST, and 3’s are here to stay, so his ultimate ranking depends on that FG%.  I’ve been saying for a while that I think he’ll finish in the top 50, although I amended that to “flirting with the top 50″ a couple weeks back if his FG% sunk.  (Note: There are also several other factors at play here, including Michael Redd’s return and Luke Ridnour’s emergence at the PG spot, shifting Jennings to SG for long stretches, so nothing is ever certain in fantasy.)

In other words, if people have been lobbing trade offers at you (and I would expect them to pick up again), I’d still target a safe top 50 player at the least, although you could probably get much better if you waited for another Jennings hot streak.  If you absolutely can’t stand his streakiness, I’d take my time getting the best offer possible, but just beware of the Bucks’ extended road trip starting January 10 (6 games, although 2 of them are against fantasy-friendly squads in PHO and GSW).

I actually recently traded Jennings for Paul Pierce in one roto league where my FG% is keeping me out of the top spot, as Pierce is enjoying his most efficient year in a while.  (No, I don’t think he can sustain 49.6% FG, but he’s taking more efficient shots while providing Jennings-esque across-the-board production.  But more on that in a different post.)  I’m hanging onto Jennings in my other leagues though, unless an “offer I can’t refuse” comes along.

If the season were to start today, which PG would you most want on your fantasy team?

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By the way… yes, I’m looking forward to that SAC/MIL matchup next week.  Can you say “Rookie Smackdown”?

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Fantasy Fallout, Rumor Edition: Tyrus Thomas, Tracy McGrady, Andre Miller, and Elton Brand

Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports just posted a must-read article on the latest trade rumors in the NBA.  Some highlights:

Is Thomass the next Stoudemire?  Marion?  Or just the next heckling target for New Yorkers?  (Getty Images)

Is Thomas the next Stoudemire? Marion? Or just the next heckling target for New Yorkers? (Getty Images)

Tyrus Thomas

“Several sources believe the Bulls are agreeable to a package of Thomas and Jerome James for Knicks forward Al Harrington.”

Mike D’Antoni has apparently coveted Thomas’ athleticism for years, although I’m not exactly sure how Thomas would be used on offense.  Is he more the Shawn Marion or Amare Stoudemire type?… because he seems somewhere in between and not necessarily in a good way, although I can’t really pinpoint why.  Maybe because he’s more generally regarded as a defensive player.  Anyway, he takes a nice speculative bump in value going to that open offense and is worth a roster spot if you can afford it.

Meanwhile, Al Harrington could be taking Ben Gordon’s old 6th man/instant offense role, but going to a more structured offense makes it hard to predict exactly how his value will be affected.  It probably goes down though, as Al likely can’t jack up 5 three-pt attempts per game anywhere outside of NY or GS.

And even though Al would be coming in, Taj Gibson gets a nice boost in confidence/value, while it becomes more likely that Joakim Noah can maintain his nice start.  (I was thinking of selling high on him as late as last week, but will hold off on that until news breaks.)

Tracy McGrady

“Houston seems willing to take back a longer-term contract for McGrady, but most executives believe his high salary makes it hard to put together a package.

“Rockets GM Daryl Morey and coach Rick Adelman don’t want McGrady back with the team, and have insisted that he isn’t physically ready to return to the lineup. McGrady would love a trade, but knows he must start playing again for it to be possible.”

This situation seems messier and messier to me, although this is the first “new” news I’ve heard in a while.  (And updating my last post here, apparently there are T-Mac trade rumors.  Of course!)  In my last post, I also said this all reminded me of Allen Iverson’s past couple weeks, but it actually might be more reminiscent of the Stephen Jackson situation in GSW.

Remember that night Jackson got benched the entire second half when things got really heated/awkward, then played almost the entire next game?  It’s called “showcasing”… and I’m guessing the Rockets are waiting for the right time (i.e., until T-Mac is absolutely healthy) to showcase his skills and ship him off.  To where?  Who knows.  But a lot of New Yorkers on this message board from The Knicks Blog think it will be, you got it, the Knicks.

Andre Miller

“Sources say that Brandon Roy clearly prefers playing with Blake over Miller, and that’s an issue that Pritchard must contend with.”

This all stems from the Blazers’ need to fill the gap left by Travis Outlaw’s injury.  It’s great news for anyone who recently picked Steve Blake off waivers.  I’ve been saying I’d rather own him than Miller all year, so gooo me!  (Unfortunately I don’t own him in any leagues though.  So, hypooocrite!)  It’s probably good news for any Miller owners too, as he’s clearly good enough to start on most NBA teams and this seems like more of a personal preference (on Brandon Roy’s part) rather than a big character issue that would hurt Miller’s value.

Elton Brand

“Sixers GM Ed Stefanski is desperate to unload forward Elton Brand and the $66 million owed over the remaining four years of his crippling contract, sources say, but that will be incredibly difficult.”

Not totally surprising, and hey, maybe that’s why he was getting big minutes before his hamstring got overheated.  (Showcasing, anyone?  No wait.  That Marreese Speights guy got injured.  Anyway.)  Doesn’t look like anything will happen, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.

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Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Week 4 Recap and Week 5 Pickups

Don't call it a comeback, Brand's been here all year long.  He's just finally making some noise.  (Getty Images)

Don't call it a comeback, Brand's been here all year long. He's just finally making some noise. (Getty Images)

WEEK 4 RECAP

They’re Ba-aaack

Week 4 featured the return of several fantasy studs: Rashard Lewis, Devin Harris, Troy Murphy, and Pau Gasol.  (Thanks for playing, Ryan Andersen and Rafer Alston.  Here are some nice parting gifts…)

As for Murphy and Gasol, their fantasy impact is a little more complicated.  Murphy will definitely take away some of Roy Hibbert’s stats, but I think the young center will still be valuable contributing a near double-double with 2 bpg.  Meanwhile, if you didn’t sell high on Andrew Bynum before Gasol’s return, please don’t panic and let someone buy low on him these next few (or more?) games as he readjusts to Gasol.  19 and 11 might be a little much to expect, but he’ll be much better than 11 and 8 (his first game with Pau back).

On the flip side, Week 4 also saw some key injuries, including Jameer Nelson and Andrew Bogut.  If you’re looking for replacements, Jason Williams has had a couple decent games thus far, while Kurt Thomas/Hakim Warrick have each had a nice game (depending on the matchup) in Bogut’s absence.  (There are some more exciting pickups further below.)

They’re “Ba-aaack”

Week 4 also featured the “return” of two stud centers: Elton Brand and Al Jefferson. With Marresse Speights out of the way due to injury, Brand absolutely erupted, averaging 20 and 10 with 2.7/3.7 spg/bpg this week, good for the #2 ranking by averages in Yahoo leagues.  I’m not sure what to make of this unexpected outburst quite yet, as the 76ers lost two of those games and barely beat a new-look CHA team in the other game, but I’ll have my thoughts on whether Brand is a sell high or buy low guy shortly.

Read the rest of this entry »

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Fantasy Basketball Draft Rankings: 61-70

Fantasy basketball draft rankings: 61-70

These rankings are based on a standard 9-category format, with a slight leaning towards H2H leagues, although differing strategies for roto leagues are noted when applicable.


Player Team POS Analysis
61 Al Horford ATL PF, C Post All Star-break, Horford averaged 13 and 10.6 with 1+ STL/BLK while shooting solid %’s for a C.  Not too far off from the likes of Nene and Biedrins (the main difference being Horford’s FG% doesn’t positively affect your team % as much).
62 Ben Gordon DET SG Gordon has as much playmaking ability as anyone on that DET roster, especially with Stuckey as a (thus-far) shoot-first PG.  While he will get his PTS and 3PM, expect a slight boost in his AST as well.
63 Ray Allen BOS SG Like Pierce, Allen seemingly defied his age and actually increased his mpg from the previous season, largely due to the Celtics’ injury woes.  However, the C’s are deeper this year, so expect Allen’s mpg and production to take a slight dip.  Hopefully that means his efficiency will stay constant with his excellent stats last year, although a more reasonable guess is that his %’s also creep back down to his lifetime averages.
64 Andrea Bargnani TOR PF, C Not many guys have 1/1 3PM/BLK potential.  After the All-Star break Bargnani was 1.7+ on both while shooting 49% from the field.  While it will be hard to expect such efficiency next year, the 45% he averaged across the entire year seems manageable.
65 Al Harrington NY PF, C Harrington resurrected his career in NY last year under Mike D’Antoni, and that roster hasn’t changed much as NY seems content to wait it out until Summer 2010.  Harrington is also in a contract year (as with basically the rest of the Knicks roster), so he should be motivated.  Hopefully, that doesn’t result in too many forced shots…
66 Manu Ginobili SA SG Apparently, Ginobili’s body can’t handle more than 30+ mpg, as he fell apart last year after his only season logging such minutes the previous year.  The good news: he only needs about 28 mpg to be a Top 50 fantasy player.  As usual, expect great value when he’s not dropping a DNP in a paper bag on your front porch.
67 Emeka Okafor NO PF, C While his defensive numbers will stay pretty steady, with CP3 feeding him the rock, Okafor’s offensive stats will likely provide better value across the board.  With one exception: free throws.  Even if he shoots at the same lackluster FT%, expect it to more negatively impact your team %, as Okafor’s FTA might rise with CP3 tossing him all those lobs.
68 Charlie Villanueva DET PF I’ve owned CV every year he’s been in the league.  I’ve also dropped him every year he’s been in the league, and it finally bit me in the arse last year.  CV should be in line for a career year as the new starting PF in DET.  I like him to improve in every category and flirt with 1/1/1 status with solid %’s.
69 Zach Randolph MEM PF, C I’ve never been in love with Randolph’s game, but he’s a pretty consistent near-20 and 10 guy, and he’s extended his range to the 3-pt line in recent years.  I probably won’t draft him (again) but you could do worse than a C-eligible player who also quietly adds 0.9 spg.
70 Andre Miller POR PG On one hand, Miller will have more scorers to spread the ball around to in POR.  On the other hand, POR also plays a slower style than PHI.  (Although in fairness one reason they brought him in was to mix up the tempos.)  Either way, with Brandon Roy commanding the ball a little more than AI did in PHI, as well as a capable Steve Blake in the picture, I’d temper my expectations.

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Fantasy Basketball Draft Rankings: 11-20

Fantasy basketball draft rankings: 11-20

These rankings are based on a standard 9-category format, with a slight leaning towards H2H leagues, although differing strategies for roto leagues are noted when applicable.


Player Team POS Analysis
11 Dwight Howard ORL C It’s the same old story with Howard.  Is it worth sacrificing FT% to dominate in FG%, REB, and BLK?  Yes, in H2H leagues if you decide to punt FT%.  In roto leagues you would need to draft the likes of a Kevin Martin or Chancey Billups later to have a shot in FT%.  Personally I like Big Al and Amare better.  Things get a little fuzzier with Bosh and Pau – it just depends on your personal strategy.
12 Chris Bosh TOR PF, C Like Al Jefferson, Bosh will give you 20+ and 10 with nearly a steal per game.  Given his track record, he’s probably a slightly safer bet as well.  The only downside is his mediocre 1.0 bpg.  But if you’re confident you can account for that elsewhere, Bosh should be in store for a nice bump in efficiency this year, with a healthy Calderon and newly-acquired Turkoglu setting him up.
13 Pau Gasol LAK PF, C Some people are taking Pau in the first round, but I’d wait until early second.  Just take a look at Pau’s splits with (18 and 9) and without (21 and 10) Bynum last season.  Of course Pau’s real value is in his FG%, but I’m betting on Bynum to play 60+ games this year, which means Pau’s final numbers should be closer to the former.
14 Brandon Roy POR SG He’s officially a fantasy stud, but the biggest question is how Andre Miller will affect him.  A steady Steve Blake already ate into Roy’s assist numbers last year, so you’d have to think those will take another slight hit.  However, the %s and scoring might creep up with a more experienced floor general at the helm.
15 Andre Iguodala PHI SG, SF With shoot-first Louis Williams replacing pass-first Andre Miller at PG, AI will probably control the ball more and pad his AST.  Unfortunately, Miller’s departure might also negatively affect AI’s FG% and TO.  (And AI’s owners already have to deal with his subpar FT%.)  With a healthy Brand back in the lineup, AI’s scoring might not go up as much as expected, but it’s hard to argue against the AST value from a forward.
16 Chauncey Billips DEN PG Billups is a stud PG who, like Nash, has seemingly defied Father Time.  Although Nash has higher FG% and AST, I give Billups a slight edge b/c of his superior 3PM and STL.  Many think having a year in Denver under his belt will lead to a slight boost in Billups’ numbers, although I think it will be negligible considering his age.  In H2H leagues, I give a clear nod to Billups given Denver’s great schedule.
17 Steve Nash PHO PG This guy never ceases to amaze me.  After a slow start last year, Nash was back to around 10 apg the rest of the year when PHO returned to its shoot-early offense.  With Shaq out of town, expect more of the same.  The biggest question mark: Will his 3PM return to the 2+ range?  If so he will be a steal here.  If not, he’s still a solid building block.
18 Joe Johnson ATL PG, SG ATL is still Joe Johnson’s team.  The addition of Jamal Crawford will more likely negatively impact Bibby.  I was surprised Johnson’s FG% wasn’t closer to the mid-40s last season playing off a capable set-up man in Bibby.  Now that he’ll be playing off two capable set-up men nearly every second he’s on the court, I expect his FG% to get back to his early ATL years.
19 Tim Duncan SA PF, C While still a solid fantasy C, Duncan’s minutes have declined in 7 of the last 8 seasons.  His numbers have followed suit.  Dissecting the stats another way, his minutes also declined month-to-month last year, to the point where he was essentially a glorified David Lee during the fantasy playoffs.  While I wouldn’t mind owning him, I’d rather take a quality wing or guard at this point in the draft and target an up-and-coming C later.  (See: Lopez, Biedrins, Horford.)
20 Carmelo Anthony DEN SF Melo has come a long way in fantasy hoops.  Once a notorious “brand name” player who only provided scoring, Melo has steadily raised his 3PM (not to mention 3P%) the last four years.  He’s gotten his REB to a respectable level for a SF, and his AST and STL are above average for his position.  He started last year in a horrible shooting slump en route to his worst FG% since his sophomore year, but now that he’s found his groove with Chauncey, I expect him to shoot 47-49% next year.

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