Posts Tagged Shaquille O’Neal

Trade Fallout: Emir Preldzic traded!

That’s right — Cleveland has traded the rights to Emir Preldzic to Washington (in exchange for Antawn Jamison).  This was actually a three-team deal, with CLE getting Jamison and Sebastian Telfair, WAS getting Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Al Thornton, Brian Skinner, and of course EMIR PRELDZIC(!), and LAC getting Drew Gooden.  Ilgauskas and Gooden will likely both be bought out, with Ilgauskas likely returning to CLE and Gooden likely heading back to DAL.  (If true, both should be dropped, as they won’t even be in action for 30 days.)

The fantasy fallout?  No immediate hot pickups (that I haven’t already discussed in detail) jump out at me.  Here’s the quick rundown:

Biggest winner: Besides the entire city of Cleveland?  Thornton might have a chance to jumpstart his season, but I’m not rushing to own him as he’s still behind Mike Miller, Josh Howard, and possibly even James Singleton on the depth chart.  And oh yeah, Andray Blatche is a must-own now (I’ve mentioned him so much lately I almost forgot to include him), while JaVale McGee deserves a long look.

(The other winners here?  Amare Stoudemire and Troy Murphy owners, as they won’t have to worry about their big men being destroyed by that CLE frontcourt situation.)

Keep an eye on: Rasual Butler and Travis Outlaw now only have each other to compete with for minutes at the SF spot in LAC.  Both should be solid weekly plays the rest of the way, with Butler especially roster-worthy as long as Outlaw is still injured.

Biggest loser: The entire city of New York.  The much-anticipated LeBron sweepstakes of 2010 might not even happen if the LeBron/Jamison experiment works out.

From a fantasy perspective, Jamison takes a hit in value, as do all the other bigs in CLE: J.J. Hickson, Anderson Varejao, Shaquille O’Neal, and Ilgauskas (when he returns).  Hickson made my last weekly pickups list because I assumed the team willing to deal their stud PF would at least get him in return.  WAS failed me, and Hickson’s fantasy value is on life support now.  Damn you, Wizards!

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Injury Timeout: Mo Williams

Mo Williams is out 4-6 weeks with a shoulder sprain.  This is terrible news as he had really adapted to playing with LeBron in his second season in CLE.  (Mo actually has a poor +/- this year, but the guys at Cavs: The Blog do a good job of explaining why in the link.)

Anyways.  The obvious pickup would be Delonte West… and that is exactly who you should grab right now.  In my main roto league, I just dropped another one of my favorite pickups, Luke Ridnour, for him.  I’d be a little more hesitant to make the same move in a H2H league, as Mo should be back by the fantasy playoffs, at which point West probably reverts to something closer to his current stats.  But if you need help making the playoffs, I think West will be better over the next 4-6 weeks, and maybe a little longer as Mo gets back into shape.

Anthony Parker (and Daniel Gibson) should see a bump in production as well.  And there’s an outside chance Shaquille O’Neal could pick up some offensive slack, as Mo often leads the second unit when LeBron is out of the game.  That’s just a hunch, and I still don’t want him on my team though.  But if you have Shaq in a deeper league, there is some room for optimism…

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Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Week 4 Recap and Week 5 Pickups

Don't call it a comeback, Brand's been here all year long.  He's just finally making some noise.  (Getty Images)

Don't call it a comeback, Brand's been here all year long. He's just finally making some noise. (Getty Images)

WEEK 4 RECAP

They’re Ba-aaack

Week 4 featured the return of several fantasy studs: Rashard Lewis, Devin Harris, Troy Murphy, and Pau Gasol.  (Thanks for playing, Ryan Andersen and Rafer Alston.  Here are some nice parting gifts…)

As for Murphy and Gasol, their fantasy impact is a little more complicated.  Murphy will definitely take away some of Roy Hibbert’s stats, but I think the young center will still be valuable contributing a near double-double with 2 bpg.  Meanwhile, if you didn’t sell high on Andrew Bynum before Gasol’s return, please don’t panic and let someone buy low on him these next few (or more?) games as he readjusts to Gasol.  19 and 11 might be a little much to expect, but he’ll be much better than 11 and 8 (his first game with Pau back).

On the flip side, Week 4 also saw some key injuries, including Jameer Nelson and Andrew Bogut.  If you’re looking for replacements, Jason Williams has had a couple decent games thus far, while Kurt Thomas/Hakim Warrick have each had a nice game (depending on the matchup) in Bogut’s absence.  (There are some more exciting pickups further below.)

They’re “Ba-aaack”

Week 4 also featured the “return” of two stud centers: Elton Brand and Al Jefferson. With Marresse Speights out of the way due to injury, Brand absolutely erupted, averaging 20 and 10 with 2.7/3.7 spg/bpg this week, good for the #2 ranking by averages in Yahoo leagues.  I’m not sure what to make of this unexpected outburst quite yet, as the 76ers lost two of those games and barely beat a new-look CHA team in the other game, but I’ll have my thoughts on whether Brand is a sell high or buy low guy shortly.

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Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Eye-Opening Lines from Week 2

The only thing that can stop Kaman so far is Kaman himself.  Or Reggie Evans' right hand.  (AP)

The only thing that can stop Kaman so far is Kaman himself. Or Reggie Evans' right hand. (AP)

Week 2 had plenty of surprises, including a fantasy stud who keeps getting better, some old-timers rising from the dead, some sleepers living up to the hype, and plenty of potential free agents who might be able to help your squad.

THE RICH GET RICHER

Chris Paul

First of all, I just want to point out one of the sickest stats of this young season.  As if there was any doubt who the (statistically) best fantasy player in the league is, Paul has hit a ridiculous 72% of his threes this year.  (He’s only hitting 64% of his overall shots though.  Slacker.)

ZOMBIELAND

Meanwhile, a handful of fantasy old-timers (some older than others) have seemingly risen from the dead to put up top-notch fantasy stats.

Andrei Kirilenko

In 4 November games, AK-47 approached his pre-Boozer/Deron AK-47 numbers with 1.8 spg/bpg to go along with 13 ppg and solid %’s, good for a top 25 Yahoo ranking by averages.

Chris Kaman

Kaman’s monster season continued in week 2.  His game log speaks for itself.  Sell high, anyone?

Andrew Bogut

It’s been a couple years since Bogut was a top-tier fantasy C, but last week he sure played like one, averaging 18 and 10 with 1/2 spg/bpg.  With Michael Redd coming back in the next week or so, I’m not sure Bogut will continue to get 14 shots per game, but he’s clearly found his offensive rhythm again.

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Schmuck Bait: Buy Low Sell High, Week 1

Jason Kidd is a nice buy-low target.  His wife has nothing to do w/ this article but she's, uh, wearing a bikini.  (SI)

Jason Kidd is a nice buy-low target. His wife has nothing to do w/ this article but she, uh, looks not so bad. (SI)

A week into the season is plenty of time for people to start panicking about their teams.  It’s also a perfect time to make some sneaky trades.  And so, the first installment of Buy Low Sell High.  (I know, I know.  I’ll try to come up with a better name once my brain isn’t fried.)

As a bonus, I’ll throw in some salesman-y schmuck bait you can use with each player.

BUY LOW

Al Jefferson

He missed a good chunk of the pre-season due to a sore Achilles, and his minutes were limited the first couple games.  So, in a way, he’s still getting into basketball shape.  I know, because he’s sinking one of my teams right now.  But if the guy who owns Big Al in your league isn’t as patient, feel free to lob him an offer.

The schmuck bait: He’s one wobbly knee from imploding your entire season.  (This is actually true, but I like him to stay relatively healthy.)

Jason Kidd

Kidd hasn’t been a scorer in years, but he’s only made four shots in three games so far!  I’m not even expecting double-digit scoring from him, but if he can hit 1.X threes per game, his numbers will be pretty close to last year, when he was a top 10 player by totals.  And according to some of my readers, his owners are already getting antsy with his lack of 3’s/scoring, even though all the other numbers are there.

The schmuck bait: He’s old (i.e., fantasy finished).

Jose Calderon

A lot of people, including me, expected big things from Calderon this year after he took the summer off to improve his conditioning.  Looks like he should’ve spent more time getting acquainted with Hedo Turkoglu.  Here’s a telling stat: Calderon has already missed 4 FTs this year — more than all of last year.  To me, that would hint that this initial slow start is more mental than anything else.  It might take him a while to get used to Hedo, in which case you have time to decide whether he’s worth the “gamble”, but I’d act sooner than later.

The schmuck bait: He’s a Spaniard.  Just kidding.  He’s still unproven over an entire year as a go-to PG.

11/o6/09 UPDATE: Please see my Tough Questions post about Calderon to see exactly what I mean by “gamble”.

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Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Eye-Opening Lines from the Season’s First Full Night of Action

Although neither of them can jump anymore, one of these O'Neals might not be fantasy-finished just quite yet...  (NBAE)

Although neither of them can jump anymore, one of these O'Neals might not be fantasy-finished just quite yet... (NBAE)

Now that we’re done with those meaningless and (potentially) misleading eye-opening lines from the pre-season, how about some eye-opening lines from games that actually count.  In addition to looking at some lines from guys that are probably already rostered, I’ll look at (perhaps more importantly) lines from guys you want to keep an eye on.

First, a word of caution: While it can make or break your season if you land one of these game-changing free agents that went undrafted, something that can also make or break your season is dropping one of your sleepers before he pans out.  So, if you’re carrying dead weight, go ahead and jump on some of these guys.  Otherwise, just keep an eye on them and be ready to pounce (like, say, during the second quarter of their third consecutive solid game — sometimes you just can’t wait until that night).

Without further ado, some eye-opening lines from the season’s first full night of action (and a few from the first night too):

STARS

Gilbert Arenas

Sure, LeBron put up back-to-back monster lines, but that wasn’t the most eye-opening performance to me.  Even though I don’t own him in any leagues, it was still great to see Gilbert Arenas pour in 29 points with 9 assists in his season debut.  It’s certainly not a guarantee of anything, but still, nice to see.

Danny Granger

While Kevin Durant posted a line worthy of a fantasy first-rounder with 25 and 11, those who stuck with their guns and drafted Danny Granger must quietly be thrilled with his 31 points on 5 threes.  Again, it’s still early, but you geniuses may as well pat yourselves on the back (especially before Granger hurts himself).

BIGS

Nobody thrived more on opening night (and a half) than the League’s big men.  Some cases in point:

Brook Lopez poured in 27 and 15 with 5 blocks, and against Al Jefferson nonetheless.

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Fantasy Basketball Draft Rankings: 101-125

I’ve finished updating my draft rankings from 101-150.  I’ll post it in two different entries, to make it a little more readable.  Be sure to check out the complete list from 1-150 on the Draft Rankings tab, complete with one-liners.

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Fantasy Basketball Draft Rankings: 1-10

Fantasy basketball draft rankings: 1-10

These rankings are based on a standard 9-category format, with a slight leaning towards H2H leagues, although differing strategies for roto leagues are noted when applicable.


Player Team POS Analysis
1 LeBron James CLE SF As if LeBron needs any more motivation, how about these two words: Contract year. LBJ’s FT% has increased the last three years after decreasing his first three as a pro. His only stat that might regress?  REB, as the additions of Shaq and Leon Powe to Varejao, Hickson, and Big Z crowd the frontcourt.  But on the other hand…
2 Chris Paul NO PG Strictly by the numbers, CP3 is more valuable than LBJ. Guards who shoot 50% are rare, and we all know about the AST and STL. In roto leagues, I take CP3 first. In H2H leagues, I take LeBron b/c CLE has a superior schedule to NO. In fact, NO has one of the worst skeds in the league, especially during the fantasy playoffs.
3 Dwyane Wade MIA SG The big question: Can he stay healthy two years in a row?  Barring freak injuries, I see no reason why not.  Although his FT% was erratic month-to-month last year, there’s not much to complain about when D-Wade drops 2+ spg and 1+ bpg as a guard.
4 Kevin Durant OKC SG, SF I like Durant over Kobe because of a) his position eligibility b) his 1/1/1 potential and c) he’s still getting better.  As a bonus in H2H leagues, OKC has a great playoff schedule. I have a feeling he might lead some squads to a fantasy championship…
5 Kobe Bryant LAK SG Kobe is as consistent as they come, willing to play through broken fingers to deliver fantasy glory for his owners.  (He probably owns himself in a dynasty league.)  But his PTS, FTA, and 3PM have dropped the last four seasons.  If you’re willing to take a slight risk, go with Durant or Granger.  (On the other hand, the Lakers’ favorable sked in H2H formats might be enough to take Kobe ahead of those young’ns.)
6 Danny Granger IND SG, SF While it will be hard for Granger to improve at the same rate as his first four seasons, there is one category with room for growth.  DG managed to keep his FG% level last year despite taking 4 more shots per game.  With Brandon Rush maturing and Dunleavy returning (eventually), I like DG’s FGA to stay relatively level, while his FG% ticks back above his lifetime avg of 45%.  Also, his improving supporting cast should take some pressure off that achy knee.
7 Dirk Nowitzki DAL PF Dirk Diggler is consistent to the point of being boring.  With the exception of his slowly dwindling REB rate, his stats haven’t changed much over the last 4 years, and that’s what you’re paying for with him.  Also, he’s played in 76+ games the past 10 seasons.  I hope I didn’t just jinx him…
8 Amare Stoudemire PHO PF, C Traditionally a top-5 pick, Amare could be a steal late in the first round thanks to a mediocre and injury-plagued 2008 campaign.  With Shaq gone and the Suns’ shoot-early offense back, Amare will provide great value here.  (I also expect him to get back to 1.5+ bpg without Shaq clogging the middle.)  If you don’t want to be stuck without a stud center, I would consider taking him ahead of Dirk.
9 Al Jefferson MIN PF, C Big Al is progressing well in his rehab.  When healthy, he gives you exactly what you would expect from a stud center.  The added bonus?  He’s averaged 0.9 spg the last two years.  Added bonus #2?  He’s improved his FTA and FT% every year as a pro.  While I’m not thrilled MIN will start a rookie PG not named Rubio, Big Al’s ability to create on his own should prevent a steep drop in efficiency.
10 Deron Williams UTA PG He’s improved on all the major stats every year in the league, with the exception of FG% last year, when he got off to a horrible start after an offseason ankle injury.  I’d expect the PTS and AST to level off around 20 and 11, with his FG% to trend back towards 50%.  It’d be nice if he got more than a 3PM and STL per game, but D-Will is still the clear second-best PG in the league.

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