Posts Tagged Rudy Fernandez

Trade Fallout: So many trades, so few roster spots

Wow, that was a busy trade season.  I haven’t seen that many players swapped since baseball cards were still cool to collect.  But since, realistically, most of us only had one or two roster spots to tinker with, how do we make sense of all the trade winners and losers?  Well, here’s my preliminary ranking (by tiers) of guys who are available in 50+% of Yahoo leagues (at least, before the trading deadline):

MUST-OWNS

Andray Blatche

First game post-Jamison and Haywood said it all, even if it came against the undersized T-Wolves.

Omri Casspi

Put up top 50 numbers when Martin was out earlier this year, and is a clear building block of the franchise.

Tyrus Thomas

With ample playing time, expect some wild stl/blk stat lines in the future.

JaVale McGee (at least in deeper leagues)

Like Blatche, he had an eye-opening effort against the T-Wolves,  Before that, he’s been very promising in stretches, albeit inconsistent.  He’s in the top tier because of his upside and the fact that his FT% isn’t nearly as bad as another C I’ll mention below.

NICE-TO-OWNS

Taj Gibson

Should see a nice boost while Joakim Noah is out.  Otherwise, at least he should enjoy a nice boost in confidence with Thomas gone.

Sergio Rodriguez

This guy might belong in the top tier if he can take Chris Duhon’s starting job, as has been rumored.  He’s probably a must-own in deeper leagues based purely on speculation.

Tracy McGrady

It’s kind of sad I would rather own Sergio Rodriguez right now, but T-Mac probably has more upside than anyone on this list.  He’s the true wild card of this group.

Josh Howard

Okay, he’s probably already taken in your league.  But if not, I’d rank him right below T-Mac.

Rasual Butler

Al Thornton’s exit and Travis Outlaw’s uncertain return mean big minutes for Butler.

DeAndre Jordan

Mixed bag in first two games post-Marcus Camby.  His upside is equal to McGee’s, but in his career as a starter he’s shooting a putrid 36% on a substantial 4.4 FT attempts per game.  His inconsistency might not be worth that negative pressure.

Craig Smith

Doesn’t do much besides score and score efficiently.  Those looking to make a last minute charge up the FG% ranks in roto leagues should consider him.

Francisco Garcia

He was a stud last year after the Kings traded away John Salmons.  The only problem this year — Tyreke Evans, Donte Greene, and Omri Casspi are all emerging and playing well.  And who knows what Larry Hughes’ role will be.

Donte Greene

See: Garcia, Francisco.

KEEP AN EYE ON

Nate Robinson

I dropped Nate for JaVale McGee in what was a needs-based move in one league, but BOS might actually be a good situation for Nate.  You know they want to rest Ray Allen for the playoffs, so it’s possible Nate could get 25-30 mpg as an instant offense sixth man.  Or, he could get the same minutes Eddie House was getting.  Who knows?  So keep an eye on him.

Nick Young

WAS is playing for the future, and Young would qualify as such.  If you need 3’s, they might start falling soon…

Rudy Fernandez and Jerryd Bayless

Even with Steve Blake gone, these guys kind of cancel each other out.  If Brandon Roy continues to be hampered by his hammy, both would enjoy instant upgrades.

Jared Jeffries and Hilton Armstrong

Jeffries’ skills are a perfect match for Houston’s style of play.  However, he probably won’t get close to the minutes he was getting in NY.  We’ll have to wait and see what that averages out to.  And speaking of playing time, Armstrong will be battling Jeffries for the minutes that Carl Landry vacated in Houston.  He hasn’t done much this year, but has been useful for stretches in the past.

Hakim Warrick

He doesn’t do much besides score, but CHI chose him over more defensive big men like Kurt Thomas and Francisco Elson for a reason.  With Salmons gone, Warrick could be leaned on for some (unorthodox) post scoring.

Beno Udrih

Udrih was useful the first time Martin was missing games, but the return of Francisco Garcia complicates that backcourt enough for me to be cautiously optimistic about Udrih the rest of the way.

Al Thornton

A change of scenery might do him good, but he’s still playing behind Mike Miller and Howard.

IT’S NOT YOU, IT’S ME…

You might not want to cut some of these guys right away, but if you have to in order to snatch one of the “Must-Owns” I’d probably make the move.

Channing Frye

I’m sticking Frye on this list because he was probably hurt the most by the Suns’ inability to trade Amare Stoudemire.  He could still very possibly get hot for multiple games at a time, but Robin Lopez is entrenched as the starter now, killing Frye’s consistency.  (I’d hang onto him in deeper leagues though.)

J.J. Hickson and Anderson Varejao

Again, maybe wait at least a couple days before dropping these guys, but that CLE frontcourt is awfully crowded now. But do what you gotta do and don’t look back.

Drew Gooden

Looks like he’s staying in Clipperland, where he might actually be somewhat useful, but his upside is limited.

Ronnie Brewer and Charlie Bell

Brewer and Bell are headed to the MEM and MIL benches, and there are definitely more attractive fish in the sea.

Zydrunas Ilgauskas

If his contract is bought out, he’s worthless for 4 weeks.  If he rejoins CLE or goes to DAL, it’s not much better.

Erick Dampier

I was down on him from the start.  A broken finger sealed his fate.

Did I miss anyone?  Of course I did.  Feel free to let me know below…

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Trade Fallout: Marcus Camby (about to be) traded for Pennies on the Dollar

I was about to post a Western Conference edition of my previous Trade Winds post, but since the action is already in motion, let’s just evaluate the imminent trade that will send Marcus Camby to the Blazers for Steve Blake, Travis Outlaw, and a bucket of beers.

Biggest winner: Jerryd Bayless will be a popular add over the next few days, but it’s hard for me to get too excited about him with Brandon Roy coming back soon and Rudy Fernandez healthy again.  He could have a nice week if Roy misses more time though, and has been useful when getting ~25 mpg, which is a real possibility now.  I think the two guys who stand to benefit the most are DeAndre Jordan and Craig SmithIf you need to hit a homerun to win your league, I’d take a chance on Jordan — consider him a poor man’s Camby.  Smith, meanwhile, could be a great addition for those in roto leagues looking for help in FG%.  (And even as I’m hyping them both, I also have to point out both will negatively impact your FT%, especially Jordan.)

Keep an eye on: Baron Davis.  Now that the Clippers have officially waved the white flag (yes, I know, I actually predicted they’d make the playoffs this year, and they were in contention as late as mid-January, when they proceeded to lose 8 of 9 games), it’ll be that much harder for Davis to bring his game every night.  The Clippers already put up an awful effort against Golden State in their last game before the break — perhaps they knew a big trade was already in the works.  Who knows, maybe Davis will still bring it and continue bringing it late into the season, but if I were in a H2H league I might start exploring trade options for B-Diddy.

Andre Miller is a wild card too.  This is definitely a great vote of confidence for him, and he’s been playing well (for the most part) lately.  But with Roy coming back soon, any boost in motivation might be offset by Roy’s inevitable 20, 5, and 5 every night.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he continues putting up his current February splits of 14 ppg and 7 apg — basically the Andre Miller of old.

Biggest loser: LaMarcus Aldridge was finally starting to get his rebounding stats to respectability, averaging a shade under 10 rpg in February without Greg Oden or Joel Przybilla.  Now he has to contend with a more voracious rebounder than either of those guys.  Plus, with Roy coming back, LA won’t be called upon to score as much.  He’ll still be very useful, just not nearly as good as he has been recently.  It also looks like one of my favorite waiver guys, Rasual Butler, and Al Thornton might see a slight dip in minutes/production with Outlaw (eventually) coming aboard, while Juwan Howard is now droppable in most formats.

Which big man would you prefer on your team?

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Week 16 Pickups

George Hill plays on Monday and Thursday this week.  If that's important to you, then congratulations.  You're a fantasy nerd.  (AP)

George Hill plays on Monday and Thursday this week. If that's important to you, then congratulations. You're a fantasy nerd. (AP)

Because Week 16 is a short week (4 days), pickups are that much more important in H2H leagues.  So, in order to give you guys some more time to make those make-or-break pickups, I’m skipping the Week 15 Recap (Noah and the Foot Arch) in favor of posting this a day earlier than usual.  First, some logistics:

Mabye the most important thing to note: ORL has 3 games.

Most teams have two games, but SA has two games and plays on both Monday and Thursday (where there are only a total of 5 games going on).  This is important because it allows you to maximize (if your league doesn’t have a cap) the number of games you can get in for this week.

Think about it: If you’re only able to start 6 or 8 players per night, for example, you can maximize your games played (and minimize your games wasted on the bench) by picking up players that play on Monday and/or Thursday (or what I call “Off-Days” because most teams have those days off).  ORL and SA both play on both of the Off-Days for this week.  The following teams have 2 games this week, 1 of which occurs on an Off-Day: NO, GS, DAL, LAK, SA, DEN, and CLE.  In other words, if you have limited pickups, target players on ORL, SA, or these squads. Now onto the pickups (by team, with all/most guys available in 50+% of Yahoo leagues):

Orlando

J.J. Redick and Jason Williams are both decent bets for 3’s, as they’re getting solid minutes off the bench.  Matt Barnes has slowed of late, but he provides across the board production (and 3 games from him might be worth more than 1 game by a better player).

San Antonio

The best potentially available option out of SA is George Hill.  I’ve already written enough about him the past couple weeks so I won’t add too much more.  DeJuan Blair and Antonio McDyess could be helpful if you’re looking for boards.

Guys with 2 games (1 on an Off-Day)

The guys above are nice from a “quantity” perspective.  These guys might provide better quality: Darren Collison (if he’s available in your league, but if you’re reading fantasy basketball blogs, he’s probably not), Marcus Thornton (missed last two games, check status), Drew Gooden and Rodrigue Beaubois (esepcially on Monday vs GS), Shannon Brown, Arron AfflaloDaniel Gibson/Delonte West (check West’s status)

And if you don’t care about schedules…

Courtney Lee (heating up again), Brad Miller and Taj Gibson (with Joakim Noah out until the All Star break), Rudy Fernandez (with Roy out next week as well), Brandon Rush (only 1 game)

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Week 6 Recap (Starring Kevin Love as Troy Murphy) and Week 7 Pickups

I'm so sad I can't even make fun of Oden's 58-yr-old face.  Oops I did it again.  (Getty Images)

I'm so sad I can't even make fun of Oden's 58-yr-old face. Oops I did it again. (Getty Images)

Week 6 featured the return of Chris Paul and Troy Murphy Kevin Love, although the “return” on everyone’s minds doesn’t come until tomorrow night in Philadelphia.  It also featured the fall of one of my favorite sleepers on the year.  Greg “Sigh” Oden.

Chris Paul

In case anyone forgot, Paul returned to the lineup earlier than expected to remind everyone why he’s the most valuable player in fantasy with a near triple-double (the CP3 way): 16 pts, 15 ast, and 8 stl.

Some other immediate ramifications: Peja Stojakovic’s shot attempts sunk to 10 after enjoying about 13 per game during Paul’s absence (although in Peja’s defense he was returning from a minor injury).  Emeka Okafor saw an immediate boost in productivity, and I expect David West to follow shortly, in case you were looking to BUY LOW on either.  And Devin Brown (2% owned in Yahoo leagues) is emerging as a fantasy-viable player as the starting SG, totaling 11 treys in Paul’s last 4 (complete) healthy games.

Kevin Love (and Al Jefferson)

Love did his best impersonation of Troy Murphy in his first two games of action, averaging 14.5 pts and 10.5 reb to go with 2.0 3pg.  The 3’s were a pleasant surprise and after hitting only 2 all of last year, it looks like he’ll take at least 1 or 2 attempts per game this year.

Meanwhile, Al Jefferson enjoyed his two best rebounding games in a while, totaling 25 in Love’s first two games back.  It might seem a little counter-intuitive, but I like this trend to continue, even when Love is inserted into the starting lineup.  As I mentioned back when Love got injured, Jefferson doesn’t have to shoulder the entire rebounding load anymore, as the other team will actually have to box out another legitimate rebounder now.  The other contributing factor?  Jefferson has looked lackadaisical at times this year, but not the last two games.  Energy is contagious around Love, and even though the Wolves won’t be fighting for a playoff spot anytime soon, I like Jefferson to play with a little more fire now that their squad has a legit chance to win every most some nights.

If you can convince Big Al’s owner that Love will actually eat into his stats, he could still be a nice BUY LOW option if you can get him at a reasonable price. Read the rest of this entry »

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Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Week 4 Recap and Week 5 Pickups

Don't call it a comeback, Brand's been here all year long.  He's just finally making some noise.  (Getty Images)

Don't call it a comeback, Brand's been here all year long. He's just finally making some noise. (Getty Images)

WEEK 4 RECAP

They’re Ba-aaack

Week 4 featured the return of several fantasy studs: Rashard Lewis, Devin Harris, Troy Murphy, and Pau Gasol.  (Thanks for playing, Ryan Andersen and Rafer Alston.  Here are some nice parting gifts…)

As for Murphy and Gasol, their fantasy impact is a little more complicated.  Murphy will definitely take away some of Roy Hibbert’s stats, but I think the young center will still be valuable contributing a near double-double with 2 bpg.  Meanwhile, if you didn’t sell high on Andrew Bynum before Gasol’s return, please don’t panic and let someone buy low on him these next few (or more?) games as he readjusts to Gasol.  19 and 11 might be a little much to expect, but he’ll be much better than 11 and 8 (his first game with Pau back).

On the flip side, Week 4 also saw some key injuries, including Jameer Nelson and Andrew Bogut.  If you’re looking for replacements, Jason Williams has had a couple decent games thus far, while Kurt Thomas/Hakim Warrick have each had a nice game (depending on the matchup) in Bogut’s absence.  (There are some more exciting pickups further below.)

They’re “Ba-aaack”

Week 4 also featured the “return” of two stud centers: Elton Brand and Al Jefferson. With Marresse Speights out of the way due to injury, Brand absolutely erupted, averaging 20 and 10 with 2.7/3.7 spg/bpg this week, good for the #2 ranking by averages in Yahoo leagues.  I’m not sure what to make of this unexpected outburst quite yet, as the 76ers lost two of those games and barely beat a new-look CHA team in the other game, but I’ll have my thoughts on whether Brand is a sell high or buy low guy shortly.

Read the rest of this entry »

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20-Second Timeout: Rudy Fernandez, Allen Iverson, and Anthony Morrow (updated 11/20/09)

UP.  (all Getty Images)

UP. (all Getty Images)

ME.

ME.

PICK.

PICK.

Now this is what I call a real 20-second timeout!  Very quickly, three guys who should be picked up, or at the very least you should have your eye on:

Rudy Fernandez

With new that Travis Outlaw will be out 3-5 months, Fernandez looks to be the clear winner.  He already posted 4 threes/steals in his last game.  (He’s currently available in 56% of Yahoo leagues.)  Also keep an eye on Martell Webster.  By the way, I would’ve posted this sooner if the Stephen Jackson trade hadn’t distracted me.  That S-Jax, always with the distractions!

Allen Iverson

The latest rumors out of New York have Allen Iverson heading to the Knicks.  If someone in your league recently cut him, he’s worth stashing right now.  (He’s currently available in 61% of Yahoo leagues.)  Iverson has stated he’ll only return to the NBA as a starter, so if the Knicks sign him, I couldn’t imagine him getting less than 30 min a night.

If you think about it, it’s actually a perfect marriage.  On one hand, Iverson just wants to prove to the world he can still carry a team.  On the other hand, it’s not even December and the Knicks have already decided to tank the season.  With AI starting, not only can they tank, they can also sell tickets!  Nothing is guaranteed, but this could be a fantasy goldmine if it plays out.  And if it does, Chris Duhon, Larry Hughes, Nate Robinson, and the budding Toney Douglas would all take a hit.

[11/20/09 update]  Never mind!  Looks like the Knicks are passing on Iverson. As I was writing the original post, I was already pitying Mike D’Antoni for having to take on AI.  Turns out he was probably the one to kill the deal.  Iverson could still land on another team, but the Knicks would’ve been ideal from a fantasy perspective, and since that’s not happening I would probably cut Iverson unless you can afford the roster spot and want to gamble.

Anthony Morrow

I’ve already mentioned him a few times, but just a friendly reminder: Make sure he’s not available in your league.  (He’s currently available in 61% of Yahoo leagues.)  In the Warriors’ first game without Stephen Jackson and Kelenna Azubuike, Morrow quickly drained 4 threes while going head-to-head with that LeBron James guy.  Monta Ellis is also rumored to be on the way out, so you might want to keep an eye on Stephen Curry as well.

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