Posts Tagged Rafer Alston

Week 17 Recap (Snatch Blatche) and Week 18 Pickups

Week 17 was all about the trades.  It saw the emergence of a perennial sleeper candidate (or two), the triumphant (at least for now) return of a former first rounder, and the early deaths of some promising fantasy seasons… all the result of big-time trades.  The Recap:

Not to rain on T-Mac's parade, but another former Magic/Rocket, Steve Francis, also had a solid Knick debut with 16, 5, and 4. Just saying... (Getty)

Cavs lose!  Cavs lose!  Cavs lose!

That’s right, the new-look Cavs are 0-3 after acquiring Antawn Jamison.  Is it the curse of Big Z?  Or is it a hex of fantasy owners of Jamison, Ilgauskas, J.J. Hickson, and Anderson Varejao?  Of course, the trade had obvious fantasy ramifications (basically, it sucked for all the guys mentioned above), but why is the losing streak so important?  Because it means the Cavs and Lakers are in a near-dead heat for the top record in the NBA… which is great news if you own guys like LeBron or Kobe, who probably can’t afford to rest late into the season as the race for home court advantage comes down to the wire.

(Meanwhile, Jamison put up a dud in his first game but bounced back on Sunday.  All those other bigs in CLE?  I’m not sure they’ll ever bounce back.)

T-Mac + D’Antoni = WTF

If you look at my rankings of the biggest trade deadline winners (and losers), I had Tracy McGrady ranked near the top of the second tier (although of course qualified that by saying he had the biggest upside of anyone on the list).  Well, he made his case for being ranked near the top of the first tier in his first game as a Knick, going off for 26, 4, and 5 with great percentages.  Hell, he even shocked himself, as he didn’t expect to play more than 20 min and was admittedly exhausted by the end of the OT game.

I’ve always said the main reason I would own McGrady would be to sell high on him after a hot streak.  Well, this might be the right time if you can get a good bounty in return.  However, Mike D’Antoni has said the Knicks are going to run the rest of the way (See: Wilson Chandler starting at PF instead of SG, where he has started all year).  And with T-Mac playing nice and saying he’s willing to come back to NY at a discount next year, D’Antoni just might keep running him out there for 30+ mpg to build chemistry.  Because of his injury risk, I’d be inclined to sell high, but don’t sell yourself short.

Fantasy ROY Race

First it was Tyreke Evans vs. Brandon Jennings.  Then it was Evans vs. Stephen Curry.  Now is it Curry vs. Darren Collison?  Okay, that’s an overstatement.  But over the last three weeks, it’s been pretty close:


FG% FT% 3PM PTS REB AST STL BLK TO
Stephen Curry .434 .933 2.2 18.4 4.6 7.6 1.8 0.0 4.1
Darren Collison .473 .829 1.1 19.7 4.7 9.8 1.7 0.2 4.9

Of course, when Chris Paul returns, this race ends, but it just goes to show how valuable both have been over the last three weeks, and how valuable Curry will be the rest of the year.

WEEK 18 PICKUPS

I’m going to steal from myself and just reiterate some of the biggest trade deadline winners, with some slight adjustments given 3 days-worth of new info.

First of all, trade deadline winners like Andray Blatche (62%) , Tyrus Thomas (63%), T-Mac (74%), and Josh Howard (76%) have already cleared the 50% ownership mark in Yahoo leagues and will thus be excluded.  (I like them in that order by the way.)  The rest:

Casspi & Butler. Ambiguously gay photo, unambiguously solid fantasy pickups. (Getty)

Omri Casspi (33%)

Casspi posted 15, 5, and 3 with 3 steals in his first game with the new-look Kings.  Nothing flashy, but he should get relatively consistent minutes in SAC the rest of the way, as he and Evans are the clear building blocks of that team’s future.

JaVale McGee (17%)

It’s tough to find 11 ppg, 7.3 rpg, and 2.7 bpg off the FA list, but that’s exactly what McGee has delivered in 3 post-trade starts… and all while playing with a sprained wrist.

Rasual Butler (31%)

He can be streaky, but right now he’s streaking the right direction with 17 treys in his last 5 games.  It might take some time, but with Al Thornton out of the way and Travis Outlaw’s indefinite return, Butler could slowly make his was off this list by clearing the 50% hurdle.

C.J. Watson (18%)

Watson has reemerged with Monta Ellis starting to burn out.  Don Nelson recently stated he would not be running guys out for 40+ mpg sometime soon, which means Watson should/might start getting consistent playing time again.  So while I wouldn’t expect the 27, 4, and 4 with great percentages and ~2 treys/stl per game that Watson posted last week, I’d still expect useful fantasy stats.

DeAndre Jordan (5%)

Jordan had a mixed bag of results in the Clips’ first 3 games without Marcus Camby, averaging 8 and 8 with 2.3 bpg.  Those numbers might not be worth taking on his atrocious FT%, but if you’ve already punted that category, he’s a nice pickup.  If not, approach with caution.  (Also keep in mind that Drew Gooden has decided not to take a buy-out and will stay with the Clips.  Obviously Gooden cares about winning and not living in sunny southern California…)

Sergio Rodriguez (9%) and Eddie House (13%)

Rodriguez was the hot pickup after whispers that he might start in New York.  And even though he had a lackluster debut, he’d still be a big catch running the Knicks’ new old up-tempo offense.  Meanwhile, House — who has played and excelled for D’Antoni before — stepped right in and had a huge first game as the Knicks’ super-6th man.  Looks like they both have a chance to make a splash in NY, but just remember that Rodriguez has a real chance to average 8+ apg if/when he steps into that starter’s role before you give up on him.

Keep an eye on… everyone from my trade deadline post, with some tweaks:

Taj Gibson (24% — I’m slightly downgrading him from my previous list because Joakim Noah has already returned; check Noah’s status and think about selling high on Gibson if Noah’s foot starts feeling better), Nate Robinson (52% — been dropped so much he might actually be available; keep an eye on his new role in BOS), Al Thornton and Hakim Warrick (45% and 14% — slight upgrades after debuts on new squads), Jonas Jerebko (9%), Shannon Brown (6% — check Kobe’s status), Mario Chalmers (33% — check Rafer Alston’s status), and last but not least, Anthony Tolliver (6%)

Which trade deadline winner would you prefer on your squad?

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Week 11 Recap (Out with the “0″ and in with the Grangerous) and Week 12 Pickups

I almost pulled off a deal that would've landed me Granger to go with Durant, but then Granger came back from injury a week early.  F my life.  (Getty Images)

I almost pulled off a deal that would've landed me Granger to go with Durant, but then Granger came back from injury a week early. F my life. (Getty Images)

Week 11 featured the early end to what was turning into a triumphant return for Agent 0, the mixed bag early return of a nicknameless fantasy stud, and one of my favorite parts of fantasy basketball that can never come too early… trade winds.

Gilbert Arenas

Don’t athletes only pay tribute to their fallen teammates after they’re… uh… dead?  Well, DeShawn Stevenson felt compelled to pay tribute to Arenas before the Wizards’ home game on Sunday after the WIzards’ top brass decided to erase Arenas from their programs, marketing campaigns, and memory.  Maybe “dead” is a little strong/inappropriate, but it’s looking more and more like Arenas is dead to the Wizards.

Yet Gilbert is still owned in 72% of Yahoo leagues, which tells me most of his owners are in denial.  Feel free to stay in that lovely state, at least for another week or so, if there are no quality FA left in your league.  But if there’s a hot item, jump on it.  The fact that Arenas’ infamous Twitter account is officially dead is probably more a sign of the times than a sign of remorse.

Although Randy Foye was the obvious favorite to take over at starting PG, I really liked Mike Miller as a better pickup last week because of his efficiency.  And while I still like him (and own him in one league), he already aggravated his calf injury in just his second game back.  So, Foye is the clear guy to own now, with Nick Young playing big minutes in Miller’s absence on Sunday as well.  Young is a nice start this week, assuming the Wizards won’t rush Miller back.  And I still like Caron Butler to pull it around… if he’s still a Wizard.

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Fantasy Fallout: Dumb and Dumber and Gilbert Arenas

Guns don’t kill fantasy seasons.  Gilbert Arenas does.

Gilbert Arenas has been suspended indefinitely by David Stern.  Randy Foye looks like the likely starter for now, while others who will receive an immediate bump in value include Mike Miller, Caron Butler, and Earl Boykins.  Since Butler’s only available in one-on-one fantasy leagues, I prefer Miller first, then Foye.  In fact, run out and pick up Miller now.  I’ll explain below.

And — this is purely speculation — keep an eye on disgruntled point guards and crowded backcourts across the land, such as the Andre Miller/Steve Blake mess in Portland, Nate Robinson in NY, T.J. Ford in Indy, and Kirk Hinrich in Chi-town.  These guys’ names have been floated around all season, but since there’s nothing certain, I’ll focus on the guys in Wizards uni’s.

Gilbert Arenas

If you own Arenas, you probably have to wait just a little bit — a few days?  a week? — to see if this might be a temporary thing.  But it’s probably not going to be.  In the meantime, instead of yelling at ESPN, feel free to watch Arenas’ life implode real-time on his Twitter page.

UPDATE: Uh, scratch that “wait just a little bit” part.  According to the reliable Adrian Wojnarowski, Arenas is likely done for the year.

Caron Butler

First of all, if you own Butler you can breathe a sigh of relief… for now.  If things stay as they are (i.e., the Wizards don’t make any moves), I see no reason why Butler won’t regain his top 20 form from last year.  He’s already been regaining his shooting touch in recent weeks.  But the reason I added the “for now” part is because there are rumors the Wizards might blow up the whole team now.  If Butler gets traded to, say, Chicago as one rumor has it, his value immediately drops in that crowded SF situation.  If you own him, let him put up a few monster lines and then try to trade for a top 25ish guy if you’re worried about a potential trade.  If you’re trying to trade for him, tread with caution.

Mike Miller

Since Butler is obviously probably already taken, I’d prefer Miller first, then Foye, then Boykins.  Here’s why: Miller has the healthiest percentages of the group and has a real chance to average 4+ reb and ast while contributing 1+ threes and stl.  It might not look that sexy on paper, but he’s a safe bet to be the highest ranked player of these three.

Randy Foye and Earl Boykins

Foye has been a starter in the past (though for the lowly T-Wolves) and can score if the Wizards call on him to do so.  However, the Wizards already have plenty of guys who can score (Butler and Antawn Jamison, anyone?) so they may try to force Foye into that PG spot, much like MIN did, which didn’t work out too well now did it.  But the Wizards probably wanted Foye as some Arenas insurance in the first place (little did they know it would be for Gil’s dumb ass rather than his bum knee), so he’ll get his chance.  Bottom line: I wouldn’t be surprised if he averages something in the neighborhood of 15, 3, and 4 with 1.X threes, but I’d expect a lot of inconsistency too.

Who should you drop for Foye?  I just decided not to drop Nate Robinson, but if you’re sick of someone like T.J. Ford who isn’t perfect (lack of threes) when he starts anyway, I’d probably make the move for Foye.  (Again, just keep an eye on the situation as Ford could potentially replace Foye in real life via trade.)  Also, if someone just beat you to picking up Rafer Alston, who was just dealt to Miami and will start for the Heat, Foye is a nice consolation.  I think they’ll put up similar numbers, with Foye scoring more and Rafer hitting some more 3’s at a worse FG%.

As for Little Earl Boykins (why do I always feel compelled to add “Little” before his name), he could be a sneaky pick-up in deeper leagues, but just as (if not more) inconsistent than Foye.

Andray Blatche, Nick Young, JaVale McGee, etc.

And if the Wizards do use this as an unexpected gift/excuse to void Arenas’ contract and blow up the team, look for some of the young guys to get a spike in value.  It’s all speculative now, but be ready to jump on Blatche if Butler or Jamison get shipped out.

And although it’s unlikely, wouldn’t it be kind of awesome if Javaris Crittenton was the biggest benefactor of all?

Which PG would you most want to own right now?

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Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Week 4 Recap and Week 5 Pickups

Don't call it a comeback, Brand's been here all year long.  He's just finally making some noise.  (Getty Images)

Don't call it a comeback, Brand's been here all year long. He's just finally making some noise. (Getty Images)

WEEK 4 RECAP

They’re Ba-aaack

Week 4 featured the return of several fantasy studs: Rashard Lewis, Devin Harris, Troy Murphy, and Pau Gasol.  (Thanks for playing, Ryan Andersen and Rafer Alston.  Here are some nice parting gifts…)

As for Murphy and Gasol, their fantasy impact is a little more complicated.  Murphy will definitely take away some of Roy Hibbert’s stats, but I think the young center will still be valuable contributing a near double-double with 2 bpg.  Meanwhile, if you didn’t sell high on Andrew Bynum before Gasol’s return, please don’t panic and let someone buy low on him these next few (or more?) games as he readjusts to Gasol.  19 and 11 might be a little much to expect, but he’ll be much better than 11 and 8 (his first game with Pau back).

On the flip side, Week 4 also saw some key injuries, including Jameer Nelson and Andrew Bogut.  If you’re looking for replacements, Jason Williams has had a couple decent games thus far, while Kurt Thomas/Hakim Warrick have each had a nice game (depending on the matchup) in Bogut’s absence.  (There are some more exciting pickups further below.)

They’re “Ba-aaack”

Week 4 also featured the “return” of two stud centers: Elton Brand and Al Jefferson. With Marresse Speights out of the way due to injury, Brand absolutely erupted, averaging 20 and 10 with 2.7/3.7 spg/bpg this week, good for the #2 ranking by averages in Yahoo leagues.  I’m not sure what to make of this unexpected outburst quite yet, as the 76ers lost two of those games and barely beat a new-look CHA team in the other game, but I’ll have my thoughts on whether Brand is a sell high or buy low guy shortly.

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Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Eye-Opening Lines from Week 2

The only thing that can stop Kaman so far is Kaman himself.  Or Reggie Evans' right hand.  (AP)

The only thing that can stop Kaman so far is Kaman himself. Or Reggie Evans' right hand. (AP)

Week 2 had plenty of surprises, including a fantasy stud who keeps getting better, some old-timers rising from the dead, some sleepers living up to the hype, and plenty of potential free agents who might be able to help your squad.

THE RICH GET RICHER

Chris Paul

First of all, I just want to point out one of the sickest stats of this young season.  As if there was any doubt who the (statistically) best fantasy player in the league is, Paul has hit a ridiculous 72% of his threes this year.  (He’s only hitting 64% of his overall shots though.  Slacker.)

ZOMBIELAND

Meanwhile, a handful of fantasy old-timers (some older than others) have seemingly risen from the dead to put up top-notch fantasy stats.

Andrei Kirilenko

In 4 November games, AK-47 approached his pre-Boozer/Deron AK-47 numbers with 1.8 spg/bpg to go along with 13 ppg and solid %’s, good for a top 25 Yahoo ranking by averages.

Chris Kaman

Kaman’s monster season continued in week 2.  His game log speaks for itself.  Sell high, anyone?

Andrew Bogut

It’s been a couple years since Bogut was a top-tier fantasy C, but last week he sure played like one, averaging 18 and 10 with 1/2 spg/bpg.  With Michael Redd coming back in the next week or so, I’m not sure Bogut will continue to get 14 shots per game, but he’s clearly found his offensive rhythm again.

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Fantasy Basketball Sleepers 2009-10

Since you all are drafting him, might as well know what he looks like (Rocky Widner/NBAE/Getty Images)

Since you all are drafting him, might as well know what Anthony Randolph looks like (Rocky Widner/NBAE/Getty Images)

I’m not a huge fan of the term “sleeper” when it comes to fantasy basketball.  How many people does it take to jump on the bandwagon before someone graduates from being a Sleeper to becoming just plain Good?  In any case, I’ll try to point out some guys who should provide value where they’re drafted (as long as you don’t reach too far for them).

First of all, a list of guys who have graduated from becoming sleepers: Derrick Rose, Brook Lopez (in fact, they both skipped the whole step of becoming a sleeper), John Salmons, J.R. Smith, Francisco Garcia, Charlie Villanueva, Spencer Hawes, you get the idea.  Now then…

VALUE SLEEPERS (GUYS YOU ALREADY KNOW)

Jameer Nelson, ORL, PG

Nelson already came back from injury, and thankfully for his fantasy owners this year, he didn’t look so hot.  That last image of a player looking a step too slow can sometimes play tricks on fantasy owners, even if an entire summer has passed.  Nelson was a top 30 guy when he was healthy last year, and ORL had enough confidence in his playmaking ability to lose both Rafer Alston and Hedo Turkoglu in the offseason (although of course VC came aboard).  Current average draft position (ADP) in Yahoo leagues: 57.  I like him in the late fourth round (of a 12-team draft).

Chris Duhon, NY, PG

Going along with the “bad taste in your mouth” idea, Duhon made it look easy after the All Star break last year, as he frankly just burned out.  But remember, he’s still the starting PG on a Mike D’Antoni team.  Unless the management in New York has no clue how to run a team (quite possible), they’ll likely monitor Duhon’s minutes more closely this year.  So while he probably won’t drop 22 AST on anyone this year, he’s certainly capable of averaging 7+ apg over an entire year.  He’s not even cracking the top 100 in ADP, but I’d take him in the ninth, maybe eighth round.

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