Posts Tagged Pau Gasol

Week 14 Recap (Who Dat? It’s Darren Collison) and Week 15 Pickups

Week 14 was business as usual for the most part… until it was reported Sunday that Chris Paul will undergo arthroscopic surgery on his left knee and miss 1-2 months.  Before you even read anything else, run out and pick up Darren Collison, who had 18 assists in Paul’s absence on Saturday.  More on that below, but first the (abbrev.) recap:

Darren Collison, it's time to shake up some fantasy basketball leagues.  (Getty Images)

Darren Collison, it's time to shake up some fantasy basketball leagues. (Getty Images)

WEEK 14 RECAP

  • Mike Miller exploded for 25, 9, and 8 including 7-10 from downtown against the Knicks on Saturday.  When news of Gilbert Arenas’ legal woes first broke, I thought Miller would give Randy Foye a run for his money in terms of being the most valuable pickup.  It’s just one game (and chances are the Knicks won’t play zone against WAS when they meet again this week), but at the very least make sure Miller isn’t a FA in your league.
  • Attention, Tyreke Evans and Brandon Jennings: Stephen Curry is running away with the fantasy ROY race.
  • The Detroit backcourt is slowly getting healthy… putting a dent in the fantasy values of every member of that team, as there are only so many minutes to go around.
  • Channing Frye might be better as a sixth man, as he’s become a much more efficient player.  Lou Williams: better as a sixth man?  Not so much.  (Although Lou posted a nice line Sunday, it seems whenever Jrue Holiday or Willie Green are playing well, Lou is the odd man out.)  Both are worth holding, especially Frye, as the Suns and 76ers figure to make deals before the trade deadline.  (I dropped Lou for Paul Millsap in one league though.)  And if Amare Stoudemire gets shipped out of Phoenix, Frye could very well end up back in the starting lineup starting alongside Robin Lopez.
  • Andrew Bynum is learning to coexist with Pau Gasol.
  • And after nearly getting suspended earlier in the week, J.R. Smith had his best week of the year, averaging 17 ppg, 3.3 threes and 2.3 spg in Carmelo Anthony’s absence.  Meanwhile, Kenyon Martin continues to dominate the boards, hurting Nene Hilario’s value.  I expect that to even out (some) in the long term though, and since KMart is a perennial injury risk, I would sell high.  (Nene could be a sneaky buy low as well, as nagging injuries have slowed him down some lately.)

WEEK 15 PICKUPS

In New Orleans, everyone's saying "Who Dat?" lately.  Why, it's Darren Collison again.  Pick him up.  (Getty Images)

In New Orleans, everyone's saying "Who Dat?" lately. Why, it's Darren Collison again. Pick him up. (Getty Images)

Darren Collison (15%)

At the time I’m writing this, Collison has already jumped up from being owned in 2% of Yahoo leagues to start the week to 15% and rising.  He filled in admirably for Paul on Saturday night and could deliver some teams to fantasy victory in the coming months.

Marcus Thornton (25%)

Likewise, Thornton should benefit from Paul’s absence.  I was already going to include him on this list as he was recently inserted into the starting lineup, but now his playing time/value increases even more.  In 4 games as a starter (one without CP3), Thornton is averaging 18 ppg and 2.3 treys.

Goerge Hill (23%)

Continuing with the point/combo-guard theme, Hill is a great add with Tony Parker out in the short term.  And, like Thornton above, Hill had recently been inserted into the starting lineup anyway, where he was already being productive.  I give a slight nod to Thornton in preference, but only because the Hornets will need him to step up without CP3 the next 1-2 months, whereas Parker’s injury isn’t as serious.

Brandon Rush (39%)

One of my preseason sleepers, Rush is quietly averaging 13.6 ppg and 5 rpg to go with 2.1/0.6/1.0 threes/stl/blk per game over the last two weeks.  Like I mentioned last week, Danny Granger’s return has really sparked him.

Robin Lopez (40%)

There’s no reason Lopez should be owned in less than half of Yahoo leagues (unless all his owners are dropping him for Collison).  If Amare Stoudemire does in fact get traded, Lopez should get all the minutes he can handle, with Steve Nash spoon-feeding him buckets.  He had a mediocre week last week, but he’s still worth a calculated gamble in my book.

Jared Jeffries (5%)

If you need defensive help in deeper leagues, Jeffries has averaged 1.3 spg and bpg over the last two months.

Keep an eye on: Keyon Dooling (2% — check Devin Harris’ status), Brad Miller (41% — resurrected his season this past week), Kris Humprhies (7%), Chase Budinger (3% — second guy off the bench with Kyle Lowry out), Goran Dragic (16%)

And before I go…

Corey Brewer (54%)

He’s made my “Keep an eye on” list the last several weeks, and Brewer has finally cleared the 50% hurdle with another stellar 3-pt shooting week.  Add in the fact that MIN only has 2 games this week, and you’re probably wondering why I’m including him here though.  Well, I just needed an excuse to post this video.  (Apologies, Derek Fisher.)

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Week 12 Recap (Raaaaaaaandy!) and Week 13 Pickups

Week 12 featured a franchise quickly forgetting its (once) franchise player, the return of another (once?) franchise player in Sacramento, and the continued (and now seemingly sustainable) dominance of a player playing with a purpose.

(By the way, “Raaaaaaaandy!” is actually spelled exactly correctly.  It’s a reference to Aziz Ansari’s character in the movie Funny People.  Check it out at LaughYourDickOff.com.  Yes, you read that right.)

Randy Foye got off to such a hot start as Agent 0's replacement, you knew Fantasy Hoopster had to trade him.  (Getty Images)

Randy Foye got off to such a hot start as Agent 0's replacement, you knew Fantasy Hoopster had to trade him. (Getty Images)

Randy Foye

Gilbert who?  Life went on in WAS without Gilbert Arenas, with Antawn Jamison picking up much of the slack.  But it was Foye who particular impressed this past week, playing the best stretch of his year, so of course I just traded him.  Was it the right move?  Who knows, but here’s my reasoning.

Reasons to sell high: He’s shooting well above his career FG% right now.  If Caron Butler or Jamison gets traded, that might translate into more points but at a less efficient rate, which equals a bad tradeoff in my mind (at least for my particular team).  Also, when Mike Miller returns that’ll likely dent into Foye’s AST totals.

Reasons to keep: Apparently he has the reins to the team.  He took shots at the end of both overtimes (missing both) against Chicago.  Maybe he just needed a new setting and style of offense to excel.  His only (current) competition at PG is technically considered a dwarf in certain countries.

Obviously, I leaned towards the former.  In my trade, I packaged Foye along with Andre Iguodala (I also threw in Yi Jianlian) for Dwyane Wade and a couple scrubs who I plan to drop for Luke Ridnour and another player to be determined.  Yes, I know I overpaid, but the trade made sense to me for several reasons, which I might point out in another post if people are interested.

Also, going back to an earlier post when Arenas was first suspended, back then I decided not to drop Nate Robinson for Foye, but then quickly decided to drop Tyrus Thomas instead.  I’m sure most of you have already figured out Foye is currently the hottest player of all three, although as exhibited on Saturday night, he’s not perfect.

Kevin Martin

Martin returned this week and quickly resumed draining threes again.  That’s not too surprising.  The more interesting subplot (or is it main plot now?) to this story involves his effect on a couple of Sacto’s rising rookies: Tyreke Evans and Omri Casspi.

Two games isn’t much of a sample, but it appears as if Evans won’t be affected too much at all — he still controlled the ball for the most part and his shot attempts were still there — while Casspi’s role in the offense was reduced.  This isn’t too surprising; even though Martin just signed a nice extension, I’d argue Evans is Sacto’s new franchise player now.  It’s still early, but I’m glad I didn’t advise anyone to sell high on Evans.  Sadly, I also didn’t have enough balls to advise trading for him from a panicked manager who might’ve sold him on the cheap.  Either way, if you own Evans I’d breathe a slight sigh of relief, although everything is fluid in fantasy of course.

As for Casspi, I think some of those shot attempts might come back, but probably not at a consistent enough level for him to be mentioned in the fantasy ROY race anymore.  Evans and Martin are going to get their shots, so that probably means a lot of inconsistency for the rest of the Kings, especially Casspi.

ROY Race

This hasn’t been much of a race lately, at least not between Brandon Jennings and Tyreke Evans.  (Hello, Stephen Curry with your 6 stl/fouls against MIL on Friday night.)  I just mentioned Evans has a great chance to retain most of his value even with KevMart back, but it’s the absence of Michael Redd that might revitalize Jennings’ season.  Jennings is clearly a rhythm shooter, and he never quite found the rhythm (or volume) for his shots with Redd back.  But now that he (and Andrew Bogut) are the primary offensive options in MIL again, Jennings has a chance to get back to his old numbers… although I wouldn’t expect him to shoot above 40%.  If you can handle the ugly shooting, you might be able to snag him with a lowball offer.

Samuel Dalembert

Dalembert has been on a tear the entire month of January, and his last couple games have been particularly sweet.  In the past, I’ve recommended him as a waiver wire pickup that people should sell high on if possible because of his historic inconsistency, but I think I’m changing my tune now, for two (non-stat-based) reasons.

Dalembert’s productivity (along with a lot of other NBA players) is often directly related to his motivation/focus.  Well non-stat-based reason #1 that I like Sammy D the rest of the way is because he really plays with more passion whenever Allen Iverson is on the court.  Back when Iverson was first signed by the 76ers, I mentioned Dalembert even had dreams that AI would return to the squad.  Man-crush or motivation?  Who knows, but it’s translated into great numbers for Sammy D.

Non-stat-based reason #2, on the other hand, is no joking matter at all.  Dalembert is a native Haitian, and in the two games since the tragedy in Haiti, a lot of people have been saying he’s played with a clear focus (14.5 ppg and 16.5 rpg with 2 bpg while shooting a combined 13-15 from the floor).  I hate to bring reality into a blog about pure fantasy, but if you’ve ever had something absolutely shitty happen to you in real life, I’m sure you can relate with “focusing on work” as a temporary escape.  I don’t think NBA players are an exception to that, and it looks like Dalembert might be playing with a heavy heart from here on out.

By the way, there are a ton of ways to help out with the earthquake in Haiti.  Here’s one organization that’s already been working there for 20 years that some friends of mine have volunteered for.  It’s called Partners in Health, and I know they make a difference if you’re worried about how your donations are spent.

standwithhaiti

And in other Week 12 (fantasy) news:

As the guys at GiveMeTheRock point out, Charlotte is on a roll, led by none other than Stephen JacksonGerald Wallace and Raymond Felton are still playing well, but the other big fantasy news out of CHA is Boris Diaw, who is finally adjusting to his new teammate.  Buy low if you can.

In LA, Pau Gasol returned from injury, and Andrew Bynum decided to put up another great line.  This is encouraging news if you own Bynum, although I wouldn’t expect it to be the norm.  I still expect Bynum to have many more night like this, but with some mediocre games sprinkled in.

In Chicago, Joakim Noah is on fire from the free throw line and the sole reason why I’ve risen a couple spots in that category so far this month in one roto league.

In Indiana, Roy Hibbert is on fire from everywhere… and that’s with Danny Granger and Troy Murphy back.  Remember when I said he’d average a double-double with 2 bpg back when he was mired in a slump?  Even I laughed at myself.  Expect some inconsistency, but I’m glad/relieved I still have him in all my leagues.

WEEK 13 PICKUPS

Since my top pick from last week is still owned in less than half of Yahoo leagues, I’ll just mention Kirk Hinrich (49%) first.  Okay, there.  Now onto to some fresh meat.

Rasual Butler (26%)

Just in case you were wondering who that guy who keeps hitting 3's for your team looks like... (Getty Images)

Just in case you were wondering who that guy who keeps hitting 3's for your team looks like... (Getty Images)

Okay, so he’s not exactly fresh because this is probably the fourth time he’s made this list.  Also, I alluded to this earlier in the week, but with Blake Griffin out for the year, both Butler and Al Thornton don’t have to look over their shoulders quite as much anymore.  I much prefer Butler (as does Mike Dunleavy Sr.), and he has a real chance to keep up his current pace of 13.8 ppg with 1.7 threes as starting SF (including 33 pts and 4 treys versus the Cavs Saturday night), albeit with some inconsistency.

DeJuan Blair (23%)

I mentioned Blair in a recent Eye-Opening Lines post.  Since then, the undersized center had 8 and 8 in a foul-plagued game against MEM.  If you need a big man, check him out.

Luke Ridnour (38%), Ersan Ilyasova (38%), and Carlos Delfino (6%)

I mentioned these guys last week, and I still like them to benefit from Michael Redd’s season-ending injury (roughly in this order).  At one point earlier in the year, Ridnour was actually ranked in the top 50 as he was an efficient source of 3’s and ast.  Meanwhile Ilyasova had already been solid in recent weeks, while Delfino exploded for 28 pts in his last game.

Robin Lopez (7%)

I’ve been waiting for Lopez to eat into Channing Frye’s minutes all year and it finally happened last week.  In PHO’s two most recent games, Lopez averaged 12.5 ppg and 4.5 bpg in 27 mpg (all season highs).  One of the games was a blowout; one was highly contested.  I’m not sure if this is a trend, but pay close to attention if you need blk.

Some guys I’ve spent plenty of ink on already:

Mike Miller (37% — no official word on return, but should be owned in most leagues), Martell Webster (47%), Matt Barnes (29% — if you’re worried about Rashard Lewis, it’s actually Barnes and not Vince Carter who is hurting him more)

Some other guys to keep an eye on:

Corey Brewer (34%), Jonas Jerebko (7% — back in the starting lineup…for now), Delonte West (21%), Steve Blake (10% — still hitting 3’s as a sub), Vladimir Radmanovic (5% — check status), Chuck Hayes (12% — last week’s averages were inflated by a monster 3OT game, but he was relevant earlier in the year), Earl Watson (10%), Jared Jeffries (1% — still a cheap source of stl/blk), James Posey (5%), Shannon Brown (2%), DeAndre Jordan (3% — check Chris Kaman’s status)

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Injury Timeout(s): Anthony Randolph, Blake Griffin, and Kobe Bryant

Anthony Randolph

Most of you have heard about Randolph’s ankle by now.  Unless you’re faaaaar (notice all those a’s?) out in the lead in a H2H league (or are in a keeper league), you can probably drop him, as he’ll likely miss at least two months.  However, those savvier H2H owners who are a lock for the fantasy playoffs should consider stashing him sometime in February, as he might be back in time to help some teams (who of course didn’t draft him and didn’t have to sit through his wild inconsistency) win some leagues this year.

In the meantime, guys like Vladimir Radmanovic (if his Achilles injury isn’t too serious), Ronny Turiaf (if his ankle injury isn’t too serious), and Andris Biedrins (if he can get back into shape after his injury which was serious) should all see a boost in production, with Biedrins a decent buy-low candidateAnthony Morrow has also been coming along lately and had a big game against the Heat in VladRad and AntRand’s combined absence.  Corey Maggette should continue to get big minutes, and even though I vowed long ago never to own him, if I had to, this would be the year.  And rookie Cartier Martin is worth a look in deeper leagues, as he posted a solid line in 34 min in his first NBA game.

Blake Griffin

And we are once again reminded why, sometimes, it doesn’t pay to stash away injured players.  Griffin has pulled a Greg Oden and will miss the entire season.  Hey, at least he’s been consistent all year; you can’t say that about all rookies.  Owners of Chris Kaman and Marcus Camby should breathe a slight sigh of relief as the only thing that stands to cut into their minutes now are their own achy backs and knees.  And in case those don’t hold up, DeAndre Jordan is the big winner here.

One of my preseason busts, Al Thornton, has a chance to put up decent numbers now that he doesn’t have to look over his shoulder (as much) anymore.  I’m not rushing to pick him up, but he’s worth a look.  Also, one of my favorite waiver wire plays of late, Rasual Butler, has a real chance to keep hitting 3’s while scoring in double figures from here on out.

Kobe Bryant

Okay, I didn’t mean to scare any Kobe owners.  His finger injury (and now, also back problems) is nowhere as serious as the other two guys’.  But it probably affected fantasy matchups a lot more, at least so far this week.  The good news about Kobe is he’ll play through anything.  That’s maybe the reason you drafted him above, say, Danny “Away in a” Granger.  The not-so-good news is you probably won’t know exactly which Kobe you’re going to get any given night — scorer or facilitator — considering his aches and pains will feel different from one game to the next.  And yet, there’s no way you can sit him when he suits up.  If I owned Kobe, I’d curse the earth, and then probably just sit and wait this one out before making any drastic moves.

But this is good news if you own Andrew Bynum or Pau Gasol (and Ron Artest to an extent), the only other consistent offensive threats on the Lakers.  As long as Kobe isn’t feeling the shooting touch, you better believe the Lakers will feed the post.  I’m not too worried about Gasol, but maybe baby brother Bynum can learn to co-exist now that the Lakers actually “need” him.

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Week 11 Recap (Out with the “0″ and in with the Grangerous) and Week 12 Pickups

I almost pulled off a deal that would've landed me Granger to go with Durant, but then Granger came back from injury a week early.  F my life.  (Getty Images)

I almost pulled off a deal that would've landed me Granger to go with Durant, but then Granger came back from injury a week early. F my life. (Getty Images)

Week 11 featured the early end to what was turning into a triumphant return for Agent 0, the mixed bag early return of a nicknameless fantasy stud, and one of my favorite parts of fantasy basketball that can never come too early… trade winds.

Gilbert Arenas

Don’t athletes only pay tribute to their fallen teammates after they’re… uh… dead?  Well, DeShawn Stevenson felt compelled to pay tribute to Arenas before the Wizards’ home game on Sunday after the WIzards’ top brass decided to erase Arenas from their programs, marketing campaigns, and memory.  Maybe “dead” is a little strong/inappropriate, but it’s looking more and more like Arenas is dead to the Wizards.

Yet Gilbert is still owned in 72% of Yahoo leagues, which tells me most of his owners are in denial.  Feel free to stay in that lovely state, at least for another week or so, if there are no quality FA left in your league.  But if there’s a hot item, jump on it.  The fact that Arenas’ infamous Twitter account is officially dead is probably more a sign of the times than a sign of remorse.

Although Randy Foye was the obvious favorite to take over at starting PG, I really liked Mike Miller as a better pickup last week because of his efficiency.  And while I still like him (and own him in one league), he already aggravated his calf injury in just his second game back.  So, Foye is the clear guy to own now, with Nick Young playing big minutes in Miller’s absence on Sunday as well.  Young is a nice start this week, assuming the Wizards won’t rush Miller back.  And I still like Caron Butler to pull it around… if he’s still a Wizard.

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Week 10 Recap (Starring Gilbert Arenas as a Washington Bullet) and Week 11 Pickups

Three explosive fantasy guards dominated the headlines in Week 10, with only one of them doing it for the right reasons.

Are you ready for your mug shot, or, er, close up, Mr. Arenas?  (The Canadian Press)

Are you ready for your mug shot, or, er, close up, Mr. Arenas? (The Canadian Press)

Gilbert Arenas

Is that a gun in your pocket or are you just happy to…  Oh.  That is a gun in your pocket.  Agent Zero made headlines for all the wrong reasons this week as he inexplicably brought/stored three guns at work.  In his defense though, he’s kind of a bonehead (and the guns were unloaded).  There are sources reporting everything from Hibachi trying to pull off a practical joke gone awry to Arenas and teammate Javaris Crittenton going Alien vs. Predator on one another over a gambling debt.  I have a feeling it’s a little closer to the former, but regardless of the intent, this doesn’t bode well if you own Arenas.

Some people, including Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo sports, think Arenas could be in store for an extended suspension.  David Stern is hard to predict, but if he decides to make an example of Arenas, Caron Butler and Randy Foye (in theory) would enjoy an immediate jump in value.  We should all know Arenas’ fate by Monday.  Keep your fingers crossed if you spent a third round pick on him.

Nate Robinson

KryptoNate came back down to earth on Sunday, but I think you can forgive him after his 41-pt, 6-reb, 8-ast effort on Friday night — single-handedly carrying the Knicks over the Hawks.  In his post-game interview, Robinson seemed genuinely humbled by his month layoff at the hands of Mike D’Antoni, and more importantly, in the game he seemed hungry.  He’s still available in 47% of Yahoo leagues.  (I added him in one league over the weekend.)

And on a side note, Larry Hughes hasn’t played the last 2 games.

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20-Second Timeout: Pau Gasol, Omri Casspi, and Tyrus Thomas

Pau Gasol

According to Hoopsworld and Ball Don’t Lie, Gasol is on the verge of signing a 3-year extension starting in the $18.7-$19.7 million range.  Hmmm… 18.7 and 19.7?  That seems like about what Gasol has been averaging lately, as his owners (and Andrew Bynum’s owners) can tell you.

I don’t think Gasol’s production will drop off a cliff after he signs this extension, but if you own Bynum you must be thinking: “Just sign the F-ing thing already!!!!!!!”  Maybe then Gasol will feel a little less need to prove himself (as if he really needs to) and he might let Bynum grab a few boards…just like Rajon Rondo started letting some of the other Celtics grab a few assists after he signed his extension (Rondo’s 4 games before signing extension: 11.8 apg.  4 games after extension: 6.3 apg).  There’s nothing like job security to decrease productivity!  At least in the NBA…

I still think Bynum is a great buy low target, and news of Gasol’s extension (oddly) reinforces that idea more (somehow).  I just offered Joakim Noah for him in one roto league where I’m far out ahead in REB and need some help in FG%.  That deal might not be ideal in every league (or perhaps, any league), but I think it’s the right long-term move for that specific squad.  (More on that below.)

Omri Casspi

According to (early but yet to be confirmed) reports by the usually reliable Sam Amick of the Sacramento Bee, it looks like Casspi is getting his second straight start tonight against the T-Wolves.  His first start was (at least according to Coach Westphal) was for matchup purposes, as Westphal wanted the more mobile Casspi to cover Antawn Jamison.  However, in facing a not-exactly “mobile” front line of Al Jefferson and Kevin Love, if Casspi gets the starting nod tonight it could be more of a permanent move.  He’s already made several of my weekly pickup lists, and while he might be inconsistent, this young Israeli is probably now roster-able in most formats.

Spencer Hawes looks like he will become a super-sub, and his splits as a sub were actually better than his splits as a starter, at least before his last dud off the bench.  I just dropped Hawes for someone else in this post (hint: see below) in one tightly contested H2H league, but am being more patient with the young FC in a deeper roto league.

Tyrus Thomas

Thomas was back at non-contact drills Thursday.  His projected return is still vague, but Sam Smith of the Bulls Blog projects it as next Saturday (10/26) versus Thomas’ home state Hornets.  While there are still some question marks about Thomas’ role with the Bulls (especially with Taj Gibson playing well), I think he’s worth picking up if you need help in the defensive cats.  I just picked him up in one league where I need steals, as he’s pretty solid there for a PF.  And if those Thomas-Al Harrington trade rumors from a few weeks back turn out to be true, Thomas’ value would certainly spike.

Thomas’ impending return is also one reason why offering Noah for Bynum wasn’t as hard to stomach.  Even if Thomas gets traded, Harrington will be another body to alleviate Noah of the big minutes he’s been logging (34 mpg… 10 more than last year) — and Noah reportedly needed a cortisone shot before his last game.

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Schmuck Bait: Marc Gasol, Anthony Morrow, Channing Frye, and (yet again) Andrew Bynum

Several guys who rose out of obscurity the first month of the year to enjoy fantasy stardom have hit a wall in recent weeks, including Marc Gasol, Anthony Morrow, and Channing Frye.  I like Gasol and Morrow as great buy low options if you can convince their owners that reality has set in and get them at the right price.  I’m actively trying to snag both, while I’m slightly more cautious of Frye.  Meanwhile, two fantasy veterans (at least compared to those three guys) in Andrea Bargnani and Andrew Bynum are both great buy low targets as well.

Marc Gasol is pleading for you to buy him for pennies on the dollar.  (AP)

Marc Gasol is pleading for you to buy him for pennies on the dollar. (AP)

Marc Gasol

Just a couple weeks ago, Marc Gasol seemed untouchable, and in fact many of you put him on par with Al Horford in value according to a recent poll.  If you still value him that much, now is your chance to get him on the cheap.

Zach Randolph has been on an offensive tear recently, which has translated into bigger minutes, which has also translated into eating up some of Gasol’s REB stats and shot attempts this month.  Yes, that’s exactly what Z-Bo excels at, but he’s also playing a crazy 39 mpg this month, and his career high for a season is about 35 mpg, so I don’t think he can keep up this pace…

And of course, as I was writing the first part of this post Sunday night, Z-Bo had an off-night while Gasol went off for a big double-double on 7-7 shooting.  However, Gasol fell back to earth a little facing a tough front line in the form of Kendrick Perkins and Kevin Garnett last night, so hopefully his owner has already forgotten about his 16 and 15 performance from Sunday.  In other words, I think Randolph’s strong play as of late has definitely influenced Gasol’s stats.  And as Randolph gets more comfortable in MEM, Gasol will probably have trouble stringing monster double-doubles in a row.  But Gasol’s last 6-game stretch (excluding MIA) will probably end up being one of his worse ones all year, so if you can convince Gasol’s owner that those games represent his true value, you could land yourself a nice starting C.

The other variable to keep an eye on here is Hasheem Thabeet, who has totaled 9 blocks in his last two games.  Even if Thabeet can muster 20 mpg eventually (he was at 9 mpg in Nov and is currently at 14 mpg in Dec), Gasol should still get 30+ mpg, as they’re on the floor together for stretches.  I don’t think it will hurt Gasol’s overall numbers too much (otherwise I wouldn’t be mentioning Gasol here), but it could negatively impact Gasol’s bpg, which were already at a higher per-minute clip than last year.  Nonetheless, most of Gasol’s value comes in his efficiency and nice steals from the C spot a la Nene Hilario, so I’m still banking on a top 50 finish.

Anthony Morrow

As for Morrow, he was on an absolute tear before a death in the family.  He missed 2 games and hasn’t been the same in 4 games since he returned, shooting 27% from the field after topping 50% all year.  Part of it might be mental.  Part of it might just be the law of averages.  Either way, last year he shot 48% from the field, and since he’s such a pure shooter, he’s probably much closer to the 50% guy even if he can’t keep that pace up all year.

Another factor here might be CJ Watson’s recent emergence, which I keep raving about in my weekly pickup posts.  (Although I’m sure Don Nelson will start inexplicably benching him once you’ve picked him up.)  But like I mentioned in my last post, I still like Morrow to find his touch again even if Watson continues to excel.  To reiterate, they have very different roles on the team, with Watson a distributor and Morrow a gunner.

Even with his horrible 4-game stretch, Morrow is ranked #44 by averages over the last month, mainly based on the strength of his 2.4 3pg and amazing efficiency before these last 4 games.  He probably won’t end up that high, but if you can steal him away for an under-performing middle rounder like Mike Bibby, Ron Artest, or Boris Diaw, consider yourself lucky.

Channing Frye

Frye is an “Approach with Caution” guy to me.  I’ve been waiting for his shots to stop falling all year, as he’s never taken close to this many attempts (especially 3’s) his entire career.  But even when Robin Lopez came back, Frye kept getting big minutes and delivering.  His recent 4-game slump (where he’s still hit 4 3’s) is probably just a result of the law of averages, as he was on fire to start the year.  It might also be worth noting that two of those games came against Dwight Howard and Andrew Bynum/Pau Gasol, not exactly the easiest front lines to go up against.  The other two games came against Dirk Nowitzki and Nene Hilario/Kenyon Martin, some of the more mobile big men in the league (and thus guys who could contest Frye on the perimeter).

I’m a little wary of the inconsistency, but if you can stomach that, I think it’s still safe to expect an Andrea Bargnani-ish combination of 3’s/blk when all is said and done.  Factoring in decent percentages, Frye could still finish the year as a top 60 player, although please don’t overpay.

And speaking of Bargnani, I think he’s a great buy low candidate right now as well.  In fact, I just traded Aaron Brooks for him in one league.  He’s not even ranked in the top 100 over the last month after a sizzling start to the year, in large part because a sprained ankle and confidence issues.  But head coach Jay Triano still wants Bargnani to be aggressive, and anyone who noticed AB’s post-all star splits from last year (which is also when Triano came aboard) knows what AB is capable of.

Andrew Bynum

After his last few underwhelming rebounding games, Andrew Bynum might be the biggest prize on this list.  Yes, I know.  If you’re a regular reader of Fantasy Hoopster, I said Bynum would be at his rock bottom during Gasol’s first week back.  Well, I was wrong because after Bynum bounced back in Gasol’s second week, Drew took another downturn last (Gasol’s third) week.

But here’s a safe bet: Pau Gasol is not going to get 20 reb every night.  In fact, if you look at Gasol’s game log and Bynum’s game log, you’ll see Pau went through a similar rough rebounding stretch just before his back-to-back 20 reb outburst, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Bynum rebounds with a nice rebounding stretch eventually as well.  (See what I did there?  It’s called clever word play being a dork.)

Sure enough, if you look at both their game logs last year, you’ll notice they took turns dominating for games at a time.  So sadly, it doesn’t look like they’ll both be able to produce monster games on the same night.  But Bynum still averaged 14 and 8 with 1.8 bpg last year alongside Pau.  With improvements in both his offensive and defensive skill sets (and mpg), I think he can up those numbers to 16 and 8 with 2 bpg.  Add in his impactful FG% and solid FT% for a C, and that’s a top 30-40 finish.  If you need a reference point, check out Greg Oden’s ranking by Yahoo averages: 11 and 8 with 2.3 bpg and solid %s = #36.

In other words, I think this week is just one of those bad stretches for Bynum, and next week could very well be one of the good ones.  I might not trade a first, second, or even third-round draft pick for him, but if you can convince Bynum’s owner that Gasol has officially crushed his value, you might be able to steal him for a middle-rounder.

[And on a side note, Bynum is also getting majorly out-(offensive) rebounded by Gasol, which tends to happen when you become a black hole anytime anyone feeds you the ball... because it's kind of hard to rebound your own fallaway jumpers.  If/when Bynum becomes truly comfortable alongside Pau, hopefully his forced shot attempts will decrease, while his offensive rebounds, easy putback attempts, and maybe even assists might creep up again.  But this might just be wishful thinking...]

Which of these buy low options is the best "value" right now?

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20-Second Timeout: Anthony Morrow, Elton Brand, and Lou Williams

Who has been the most valuable 76er in fantasy this year?  Here's a hint: NOT Elton Brand.  (Getty Images)

Who has been the most valuable 76er in fantasy this year? Here's a hint: NOT Elton Brand. (Getty Images)

Anthony Morrow

After last night’s performance, this will probably be your last chance to snatch Morrow off the FA list.  Against a solid defensive team in DAL (although granted they were without Josh Howard and Shawn Marion), Morrow poured in 27 pts, 9 reb and 5 ast on 9-16 shooting (6-8 from downtown) while chipping in 3 stl.  Sure it took him 48 minutes to do, but when your team only dresses 8 players and only plays 6 of them, you’re going to end up playing 48 minutes some nights.  (Or in Morrow’s case, 48 minutes 2 games in a row.)  He’s somehow still available in 47% of Yahoo leagues.

By the way, every Warrior who played was worth starting tonight.  Monta Ellis went off for 37, Stephen Curry had a nice all-around game, and even Vladimir Radmanovic recorded his first double-double since who knows when (adding 4 stl) as Corey Maggette and Andris Biedrins sat out with injuries.  Curry should be owned in most leagues; Radmanovic should be owned in more than the 4% of Yahoo leagues he’s currently owned.

Elton Brand

When Marreese Speights went down with an injury a week and a half ago, some astute fantasy basketballers noted these next couple weeks could really define Brand’s value this season.  Well, after last week’s dominant 3-game stretch, Brand fell back to earth with a resounding thud against the Wizards.  EB only mustered 4 pts and 7 reb on 1-9 shooting, not to mention only recording one measly block and no steals after having 11/8 blk/stl his previous 3 games.

Initially, I thought it might have something to do with the front line WAS marched out against Brand: Brendan Haywood, Fabricio Oberto (one of those pesky defensive post players), and Antawn Jamison.  (If I’m not mistaken, Brand’s only bucket came against Andray Blatche.)  If this were the case… no big deal.  Even first-rounders will have their off-nights against solid defenses.

However, Brand wound up leaving the game in the 3rd quarter with a sore hamstring, which is much more worrisome because his age/conditioning is the biggest red flag surrounding him this year.  Last week he wanted to prove coach Eddie Jordan wrong by playing big minutes (35+ for 3 games); tonight he proved that maybe he actually can’t handle big minutes.

What’s it all mean?  Brand probably goes back to having his minutes monitored somewhat (at least for the immediate future), which means we probably won’t see as many nights like last week’s.  Then again, he’s also proven that he can still bring it.  Unfortunately, I’d expect inconsistency (start him against J.J. Hickson and Ilgauskas; sit him against Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum), but overall I think he can still average 16 and 9 with 1.5-2.0 blk, which is pretty much what he did last year (with one extra made FG per game).  In other words, if you can get a top 50 player for him, I’d probably cut my losses and take it.  If not, not all is lost as Brand can probably still provide value in the 50-75 range.  (This, of course, is a moving target.  This next week where we see what Brand can do with 30 mpg without Speights should be telling.)

Lou Williams

Lost in the Elton Brand Stock Panic of 2009 is the rise of Lou Williams in Philly.  I doubted Sweet Lou in the preseason (because I’ve never been a fan of shoot-first PG’s), but Lou has been the most consistent 76er so far this year.  He probably can’t keep shooting 50%, so I still think he’s a SELL HIGH candidate, but just don’t sell yourself short, as I think he can maintain his sneaky-good 1.7 spg (which is pretty on-target with his career steals per minute averages).

By the way, since Williams’ sleeper days are long gone, there’s a new sleeper in Philadelphia and his name is Jrue Holiday.  11 pts, 6 reb, 3 treys, and 2 stl last night…in 10 minutes as the 76ers almost came back against the Wizards.  Keep an eye on him in deeper leagues as he makes his case for more playing time.

Where will Elton Brand end this season ranked?

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Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Week 4 Recap and Week 5 Pickups

Don't call it a comeback, Brand's been here all year long.  He's just finally making some noise.  (Getty Images)

Don't call it a comeback, Brand's been here all year long. He's just finally making some noise. (Getty Images)

WEEK 4 RECAP

They’re Ba-aaack

Week 4 featured the return of several fantasy studs: Rashard Lewis, Devin Harris, Troy Murphy, and Pau Gasol.  (Thanks for playing, Ryan Andersen and Rafer Alston.  Here are some nice parting gifts…)

As for Murphy and Gasol, their fantasy impact is a little more complicated.  Murphy will definitely take away some of Roy Hibbert’s stats, but I think the young center will still be valuable contributing a near double-double with 2 bpg.  Meanwhile, if you didn’t sell high on Andrew Bynum before Gasol’s return, please don’t panic and let someone buy low on him these next few (or more?) games as he readjusts to Gasol.  19 and 11 might be a little much to expect, but he’ll be much better than 11 and 8 (his first game with Pau back).

On the flip side, Week 4 also saw some key injuries, including Jameer Nelson and Andrew Bogut.  If you’re looking for replacements, Jason Williams has had a couple decent games thus far, while Kurt Thomas/Hakim Warrick have each had a nice game (depending on the matchup) in Bogut’s absence.  (There are some more exciting pickups further below.)

They’re “Ba-aaack”

Week 4 also featured the “return” of two stud centers: Elton Brand and Al Jefferson. With Marresse Speights out of the way due to injury, Brand absolutely erupted, averaging 20 and 10 with 2.7/3.7 spg/bpg this week, good for the #2 ranking by averages in Yahoo leagues.  I’m not sure what to make of this unexpected outburst quite yet, as the 76ers lost two of those games and barely beat a new-look CHA team in the other game, but I’ll have my thoughts on whether Brand is a sell high or buy low guy shortly.

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Schmuck Bait: Andrew Bynum

Gasol's return might actually be a good thing for Bynum owners...well, if you don't own him yet.  (Getty Images)

Gasol's return might actually be a good thing for Bynum owners...well, if you don't own him yet. (Getty Images)

Pau Gasol returned to action last night and immediately exhibited mid-season form with 24 and 13 on 9-15 shooting.  He had been one of my top buy-low candidates the past few weeks because of uncertainty about his hamstring, and hopefully some of you were able to get him on the cheap.  But now that the “other” Gasol is back in fantasy lineups, that opens up a new buy-low window (at least the next 48 hours, maybe the next couple weeks) for another C in Los Angeles…

Andrew Bynum

First, let me just say I have owned Bynum in each of the last three years.  There’s a case he’s the most valuable C in fantasy when healthy, as he doesn’t have Dwight Howard’s FT% Achilles (Bynum is at 70% the last two years) and he gets more than Chris Bosh’s 1 bpg.  So, yes, I like the young big man.  And, yes, there will always be injury risk with Bynum (just like any other big man, really), so if you’re not into high-risk, high-reward bigs (or can’t afford one because your team already has a lot of injury risk), stop reading now.

For those of you still interested in Bynum but who don’t own him, these next 48 hours (and maybe the next few games) will be your opportunity to get him at his cheapest.  Gasol’s return last night translated into Bynum’s worst performance of the year, as Drew only chipped in 11 points and 8 rebounds with a measly block.

But if you look a little more closely at the box score, you’ll also notice Bynum only played 24 minutes, checking out with 4 minutes to go in the third quarter and never checking back into the Lakers’ blowout win.  With a 20 point lead early in the 4th against his old team, you wouldn’t think Phil Jackson would play it safe though.  And indeed, Kobe didn’t check out until 4 and a half minutes left in the game.  It turns out, Bynum sprained his ankle on his last play in the 3rd quarter.  In short, don’t worry if you own Bynum.  He didn’t sit out the 4th quarter because Gasol was being more effective (which he was), it was because of a minor ankle sprain.

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