Posts Tagged Michael Redd
Player Spotlight: Is the “old” Brandon Jennings back?
Posted by fantasy hoopster in Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Strategy on December 10, 2009

See that look in his eyes? It's called infrared court vision. (Getty Images)
Brandon Jennings finally found the bottom of the net again last night, “breaking out” of an ugly shooting slump. (He also hyperextended his knee in the third quarter, although it seems to be no big deal.) Sure, it’s nice that he shot an Andrew Bogut-like FG% vs the Raptors, and I’ve been begging owners to be patient with Young Money and not to sell low on him, but does it really mean he broke out of his slump? Or is something else going on here? The answer might be in the splits…
Jennings at home: 25.5 ppg, 5.9 apg, 3.6 rpg, 3.0 3pg, 47.9% FG, 56.9% 3PT, 80.4% FT
Jennings on the road: 16.4 ppg, 5.5 apg, 4.0 rpg, 1.4 3pg, 34.4% FG, 28.6% 3PT, 78.8% FT
Those are pretty drastic differences, especially in PTS, 3PM, and FG%. (Of course, let’s not forget the double-nickel vs GS at home.) Sure enough, his 10-game shooting slump started with the Bucks’ longest road trip of the year, at Memphis back on Nov. 21, with 7 of those 10 games on the road.
Does that mean Jennings is going to put up top 20 numbers at home and only top 100 numbers on the road? Or did he just happen to hit a rough patch (with defenses finally learning how to slow him down) during a long road stretch? I’m taking the safe answer here and going straight down the middle. (I know. How bold of me!) Both of those factors — opposing teams’ gang-tackle defense and a long road trip — contributed to the rookie’s first slump.
So what? Is the slump over?
If you are a (once-again) proud Jennings owner, hopefully you didn’t bail on him over the last couple weeks. I expect those home and road splits to even out over the course of the year, although I wouldn’t be surprised if the home stats still look considerably better when all’s said and done. But has he broken out of his slump? Yes and no. Yes, I think he has stopped the bleeding. However, I’m not expecting him to start another hot streak right away. Sure, he could torch Steve Blake and Derek Fisher in the next two games at home, but I think we’ll see some middle-of-the-road numbers over the next month or so.
However, it’s looking more and more like Jennings’ FG% will be sub-45% on the year, as he’s had one insanely hot stretch and one insanely cold stretch, and it’s all averaged out to 41.8% so far. It also puts him at #57 in Yahoo rankings (by averages) on the year, although he’s probably ranked higher in ESPN leagues, most of which don’t count TO. I think the PTS, REB, AST, and 3’s are here to stay, so his ultimate ranking depends on that FG%. I’ve been saying for a while that I think he’ll finish in the top 50, although I amended that to “flirting with the top 50″ a couple weeks back if his FG% sunk. (Note: There are also several other factors at play here, including Michael Redd’s return and Luke Ridnour’s emergence at the PG spot, shifting Jennings to SG for long stretches, so nothing is ever certain in fantasy.)
In other words, if people have been lobbing trade offers at you (and I would expect them to pick up again), I’d still target a safe top 50 player at the least, although you could probably get much better if you waited for another Jennings hot streak. If you absolutely can’t stand his streakiness, I’d take my time getting the best offer possible, but just beware of the Bucks’ extended road trip starting January 10 (6 games, although 2 of them are against fantasy-friendly squads in PHO and GSW).
I actually recently traded Jennings for Paul Pierce in one roto league where my FG% is keeping me out of the top spot, as Pierce is enjoying his most efficient year in a while. (No, I don’t think he can sustain 49.6% FG, but he’s taking more efficient shots while providing Jennings-esque across-the-board production. But more on that in a different post.) I’m hanging onto Jennings in my other leagues though, unless an “offer I can’t refuse” comes along.
By the way… yes, I’m looking forward to that SAC/MIL matchup next week. Can you say “Rookie Smackdown”?
Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Week 5 Recap and Week 6 Pickups (updated)
Posted by fantasy hoopster in Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Injuries, Fantasy Basketball Pickups, Fantasy Basketball Strategy on November 30, 2009
WEEK 5 RECAP
Week 5 featured the return of an old fantasy friend, the departure of a new fantasy stud, and the comings and goings (and potential returnings) of a fantasy legend.

"Brett Favre ain't got nothing on me!" (AP)
Allen Iverson
Iverson was probably my favorite player over the past decade, as I’ve always admired his “fight” and determination. That’s why the announcing of his retirement came as a total shock to me. Turns out, it might have been a little premature. A week ago, the Knicks seemed like the only team desperate enough to give Iverson a starting job again. Well, it’s funny what a broken jaw can do to a team’s desperation factor. If the 76ers pick up Iverson, I don’t like him as much as I did had he become a Knick, but he’s probably too good to be a FA in most fantasy leagues. (He’s currently available in 64% of Yahoo leagues; so keep a close eye on this situation.)
Lou Williams
Speaking of that broken jaw, Williams was absolutely killing it when I finally admitted I might have underestimated him in my last article. If you own him, I’m sorry… I take all the blame for jinxing him.
It looks like Lou will be out 8 weeks. I was just telling some readers that I might hang onto him if I’m in or near the lead in my league (or at least see how my team does for the next week). On the other hand, if you’re in the middle of the pack in a H2H league, you might not be able to afford the roster spot. Adding a wrinkle to the situation is Allen Iverson’s possible un-retirement, which would put a damper on William’s eventual return and might push me over the edge in dropping Lou. By the way, so far the big “winners” from Williams’ injury are Andre Iguodala and Jrue Holiday (although beware of FG%’s!).
Mike Dunleavy
Dunleavy had a successful return last week, chipping in 13 pts against the Mavs in only 15 min (while adding 1 3pm/stl/blk). That Indiana wing position suddenly looks crowded with Brandon Rush and Dahntay Jones in the mix too, but Dunleavy might have the most upside of all three. And he’s currently available in over half (53%) of Yahoo leagues.
20-Second Timeout: Brandon Jennings + Andrew Bogut = BROGUT!
Posted by fantasy hoopster in 20-Second Timeout, Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Strategy on November 15, 2009
Wow. In case you missed the biggest stat line from Saturday night, the first half of Brogut (thanks for the ingenious name, Brew Hoop) Brandon Jennings dropped 55 points on 21-34 shooting against the Warriors. (Yes, I know GSW is in shambles right now but the stats still count!) Oh, and he also added 7 threes, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists.
It’s been about two weeks since I wrote about Michael Redd’s injury and mentioned that Jennings might be at a sell high point in, you got it, two weeks. Here’s the thing though — how do you trade away a guy after he drops 55 points in his seventh NBA game???
Well, it depends on what you can get in return. I would be intrigued by a Jennings for Jose Calderon or Jason Kidd deal, for instance. Less intrigued by a Jennings for Derrick Rose deal. One of my readers just dealt Jennings for Russell Westbrook (talk about moving quickly!), but in my opinion that actually seems like more of a needs-based deal than a sell high deal (Westrbook’s REB/AST/STL for Jennings’ 3PM/TO/maybe FG). If you’re going to deal Jennings in the immediate future, I would definitely aim higher, if only for the fact he’s currently getting mentioned alongside Wilt Chamberlain and Elgin Baylor on ESPN right now.
So, what value should you be targeting (if you’re even looking to move him at all)? Well, after his third (or fourth?) coming out party last night, Jennings is ranked #17 in Yahoo leagues by averages. He’s quickly turning into this year’s D-Rose, except he actually hits 3’s. Once Michael Redd returns, his scoring will likely drop, but his assists should creep back up. If he can manage 18, 4, and 6 with decent percentages and 1+ 3pm/stl, that looks like a top 50 finish to me. (He was at 20+, 4, and 5 before last night.) That being said, you should probably still move him for more consistent veterans like Jameer Nelson and Mo Williams, although I wouldn’t blame you if you want to enjoy the ride.
Meanwhile, Andrew Bogut, added 19 and 11 on 9-12 shooting (although his FT shooting returned to its old ways after a couple perfect games from the stripe). Again, after a slow start, it looks like Bogut is primed for a nice bounce back year… although he’s mainly getting mentioned here because he’s the other half of Brogut!
20-Second Timeout: Pau Gasol, Brandon Jennings, Russell Westbrook and MORE!
Posted by fantasy hoopster in 20-Second Timeout, Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Injuries, Fantasy Basketball Strategy on November 12, 2009

If you can flip Marc Gasol for this Gasol, either your name is Mitch Kupchak or you're one savvy fantasy manager. (Getty Images)
There was a lot of action on Wednesday night, on and off the court. Without further ado, some of the newsier and more actionable items:
Pau Gasol
Gasol hasn’t even suited up this year, but he was at the center of attention in fantasy news headlines Wednesday. First, earlier in the day, Phil Jackson told the Los Angeles Daily News that Gasol might be out until Christmas. Then, later that night, the Lakers clarified that Phil Jackson was in fact joking (Hahaha! Oh, Phil), and Gasol is actually day-to-day. How long will Gasol actually be out? Probably somewhere in between “day-to-day” and “a long time.”
One thing’s for sure, his owners are probably starting to lose patience, especially with these ambiguous/conflicting reports. If you can afford to stash him (for what could amount to several weeks), I think Gasol is a nice BUY LOW option right now.
Brandon Jennings and Andrew Bogut
As the guys over at BrewHoop mention, Wednesday’s game against the Nuggets and Chauncey Billups was supposed to be Jennings’ first true PG test (even though the young Buck already went toe-to-toe with Derrick Rose). He responded with 32 points and 9 assists while shooting 11-19, 8-8, and 2-2 from FG, FT, and 3-pt range. The guys at BrewHoop summed it up nicely: “In short, he was everything. Again.”
Meanwhile, Andrew Bogut did a pretty good impression of Andrew Bogut circa 2007 with 23 and 10 with 4 blocks. The makeup of their numbers will change when/if Michael Redd returns, but they should both be rostered in almost all fantasy formats. (Yet somehow they’re each available in 22% of Yahoo leagues.) Read the rest of this entry »














The latest chatter