Posts Tagged Luke Ridnour

Injury Timeout: Mo Williams

Mo Williams is out 4-6 weeks with a shoulder sprain.  This is terrible news as he had really adapted to playing with LeBron in his second season in CLE.  (Mo actually has a poor +/- this year, but the guys at Cavs: The Blog do a good job of explaining why in the link.)

Anyways.  The obvious pickup would be Delonte West… and that is exactly who you should grab right now.  In my main roto league, I just dropped another one of my favorite pickups, Luke Ridnour, for him.  I’d be a little more hesitant to make the same move in a H2H league, as Mo should be back by the fantasy playoffs, at which point West probably reverts to something closer to his current stats.  But if you need help making the playoffs, I think West will be better over the next 4-6 weeks, and maybe a little longer as Mo gets back into shape.

Anthony Parker (and Daniel Gibson) should see a bump in production as well.  And there’s an outside chance Shaquille O’Neal could pick up some offensive slack, as Mo often leads the second unit when LeBron is out of the game.  That’s just a hunch, and I still don’t want him on my team though.  But if you have Shaq in a deeper league, there is some room for optimism…

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Week 12 Recap (Raaaaaaaandy!) and Week 13 Pickups

Week 12 featured a franchise quickly forgetting its (once) franchise player, the return of another (once?) franchise player in Sacramento, and the continued (and now seemingly sustainable) dominance of a player playing with a purpose.

(By the way, “Raaaaaaaandy!” is actually spelled exactly correctly.  It’s a reference to Aziz Ansari’s character in the movie Funny People.  Check it out at LaughYourDickOff.com.  Yes, you read that right.)

Randy Foye got off to such a hot start as Agent 0's replacement, you knew Fantasy Hoopster had to trade him.  (Getty Images)

Randy Foye got off to such a hot start as Agent 0's replacement, you knew Fantasy Hoopster had to trade him. (Getty Images)

Randy Foye

Gilbert who?  Life went on in WAS without Gilbert Arenas, with Antawn Jamison picking up much of the slack.  But it was Foye who particular impressed this past week, playing the best stretch of his year, so of course I just traded him.  Was it the right move?  Who knows, but here’s my reasoning.

Reasons to sell high: He’s shooting well above his career FG% right now.  If Caron Butler or Jamison gets traded, that might translate into more points but at a less efficient rate, which equals a bad tradeoff in my mind (at least for my particular team).  Also, when Mike Miller returns that’ll likely dent into Foye’s AST totals.

Reasons to keep: Apparently he has the reins to the team.  He took shots at the end of both overtimes (missing both) against Chicago.  Maybe he just needed a new setting and style of offense to excel.  His only (current) competition at PG is technically considered a dwarf in certain countries.

Obviously, I leaned towards the former.  In my trade, I packaged Foye along with Andre Iguodala (I also threw in Yi Jianlian) for Dwyane Wade and a couple scrubs who I plan to drop for Luke Ridnour and another player to be determined.  Yes, I know I overpaid, but the trade made sense to me for several reasons, which I might point out in another post if people are interested.

Also, going back to an earlier post when Arenas was first suspended, back then I decided not to drop Nate Robinson for Foye, but then quickly decided to drop Tyrus Thomas instead.  I’m sure most of you have already figured out Foye is currently the hottest player of all three, although as exhibited on Saturday night, he’s not perfect.

Kevin Martin

Martin returned this week and quickly resumed draining threes again.  That’s not too surprising.  The more interesting subplot (or is it main plot now?) to this story involves his effect on a couple of Sacto’s rising rookies: Tyreke Evans and Omri Casspi.

Two games isn’t much of a sample, but it appears as if Evans won’t be affected too much at all — he still controlled the ball for the most part and his shot attempts were still there — while Casspi’s role in the offense was reduced.  This isn’t too surprising; even though Martin just signed a nice extension, I’d argue Evans is Sacto’s new franchise player now.  It’s still early, but I’m glad I didn’t advise anyone to sell high on Evans.  Sadly, I also didn’t have enough balls to advise trading for him from a panicked manager who might’ve sold him on the cheap.  Either way, if you own Evans I’d breathe a slight sigh of relief, although everything is fluid in fantasy of course.

As for Casspi, I think some of those shot attempts might come back, but probably not at a consistent enough level for him to be mentioned in the fantasy ROY race anymore.  Evans and Martin are going to get their shots, so that probably means a lot of inconsistency for the rest of the Kings, especially Casspi.

ROY Race

This hasn’t been much of a race lately, at least not between Brandon Jennings and Tyreke Evans.  (Hello, Stephen Curry with your 6 stl/fouls against MIL on Friday night.)  I just mentioned Evans has a great chance to retain most of his value even with KevMart back, but it’s the absence of Michael Redd that might revitalize Jennings’ season.  Jennings is clearly a rhythm shooter, and he never quite found the rhythm (or volume) for his shots with Redd back.  But now that he (and Andrew Bogut) are the primary offensive options in MIL again, Jennings has a chance to get back to his old numbers… although I wouldn’t expect him to shoot above 40%.  If you can handle the ugly shooting, you might be able to snag him with a lowball offer.

Samuel Dalembert

Dalembert has been on a tear the entire month of January, and his last couple games have been particularly sweet.  In the past, I’ve recommended him as a waiver wire pickup that people should sell high on if possible because of his historic inconsistency, but I think I’m changing my tune now, for two (non-stat-based) reasons.

Dalembert’s productivity (along with a lot of other NBA players) is often directly related to his motivation/focus.  Well non-stat-based reason #1 that I like Sammy D the rest of the way is because he really plays with more passion whenever Allen Iverson is on the court.  Back when Iverson was first signed by the 76ers, I mentioned Dalembert even had dreams that AI would return to the squad.  Man-crush or motivation?  Who knows, but it’s translated into great numbers for Sammy D.

Non-stat-based reason #2, on the other hand, is no joking matter at all.  Dalembert is a native Haitian, and in the two games since the tragedy in Haiti, a lot of people have been saying he’s played with a clear focus (14.5 ppg and 16.5 rpg with 2 bpg while shooting a combined 13-15 from the floor).  I hate to bring reality into a blog about pure fantasy, but if you’ve ever had something absolutely shitty happen to you in real life, I’m sure you can relate with “focusing on work” as a temporary escape.  I don’t think NBA players are an exception to that, and it looks like Dalembert might be playing with a heavy heart from here on out.

By the way, there are a ton of ways to help out with the earthquake in Haiti.  Here’s one organization that’s already been working there for 20 years that some friends of mine have volunteered for.  It’s called Partners in Health, and I know they make a difference if you’re worried about how your donations are spent.

standwithhaiti

And in other Week 12 (fantasy) news:

As the guys at GiveMeTheRock point out, Charlotte is on a roll, led by none other than Stephen JacksonGerald Wallace and Raymond Felton are still playing well, but the other big fantasy news out of CHA is Boris Diaw, who is finally adjusting to his new teammate.  Buy low if you can.

In LA, Pau Gasol returned from injury, and Andrew Bynum decided to put up another great line.  This is encouraging news if you own Bynum, although I wouldn’t expect it to be the norm.  I still expect Bynum to have many more night like this, but with some mediocre games sprinkled in.

In Chicago, Joakim Noah is on fire from the free throw line and the sole reason why I’ve risen a couple spots in that category so far this month in one roto league.

In Indiana, Roy Hibbert is on fire from everywhere… and that’s with Danny Granger and Troy Murphy back.  Remember when I said he’d average a double-double with 2 bpg back when he was mired in a slump?  Even I laughed at myself.  Expect some inconsistency, but I’m glad/relieved I still have him in all my leagues.

WEEK 13 PICKUPS

Since my top pick from last week is still owned in less than half of Yahoo leagues, I’ll just mention Kirk Hinrich (49%) first.  Okay, there.  Now onto to some fresh meat.

Rasual Butler (26%)

Just in case you were wondering who that guy who keeps hitting 3's for your team looks like... (Getty Images)

Just in case you were wondering who that guy who keeps hitting 3's for your team looks like... (Getty Images)

Okay, so he’s not exactly fresh because this is probably the fourth time he’s made this list.  Also, I alluded to this earlier in the week, but with Blake Griffin out for the year, both Butler and Al Thornton don’t have to look over their shoulders quite as much anymore.  I much prefer Butler (as does Mike Dunleavy Sr.), and he has a real chance to keep up his current pace of 13.8 ppg with 1.7 threes as starting SF (including 33 pts and 4 treys versus the Cavs Saturday night), albeit with some inconsistency.

DeJuan Blair (23%)

I mentioned Blair in a recent Eye-Opening Lines post.  Since then, the undersized center had 8 and 8 in a foul-plagued game against MEM.  If you need a big man, check him out.

Luke Ridnour (38%), Ersan Ilyasova (38%), and Carlos Delfino (6%)

I mentioned these guys last week, and I still like them to benefit from Michael Redd’s season-ending injury (roughly in this order).  At one point earlier in the year, Ridnour was actually ranked in the top 50 as he was an efficient source of 3’s and ast.  Meanwhile Ilyasova had already been solid in recent weeks, while Delfino exploded for 28 pts in his last game.

Robin Lopez (7%)

I’ve been waiting for Lopez to eat into Channing Frye’s minutes all year and it finally happened last week.  In PHO’s two most recent games, Lopez averaged 12.5 ppg and 4.5 bpg in 27 mpg (all season highs).  One of the games was a blowout; one was highly contested.  I’m not sure if this is a trend, but pay close to attention if you need blk.

Some guys I’ve spent plenty of ink on already:

Mike Miller (37% — no official word on return, but should be owned in most leagues), Martell Webster (47%), Matt Barnes (29% — if you’re worried about Rashard Lewis, it’s actually Barnes and not Vince Carter who is hurting him more)

Some other guys to keep an eye on:

Corey Brewer (34%), Jonas Jerebko (7% — back in the starting lineup…for now), Delonte West (21%), Steve Blake (10% — still hitting 3’s as a sub), Vladimir Radmanovic (5% — check status), Chuck Hayes (12% — last week’s averages were inflated by a monster 3OT game, but he was relevant earlier in the year), Earl Watson (10%), Jared Jeffries (1% — still a cheap source of stl/blk), James Posey (5%), Shannon Brown (2%), DeAndre Jordan (3% — check Chris Kaman’s status)

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Week 11 Recap (Out with the “0″ and in with the Grangerous) and Week 12 Pickups

I almost pulled off a deal that would've landed me Granger to go with Durant, but then Granger came back from injury a week early.  F my life.  (Getty Images)

I almost pulled off a deal that would've landed me Granger to go with Durant, but then Granger came back from injury a week early. F my life. (Getty Images)

Week 11 featured the early end to what was turning into a triumphant return for Agent 0, the mixed bag early return of a nicknameless fantasy stud, and one of my favorite parts of fantasy basketball that can never come too early… trade winds.

Gilbert Arenas

Don’t athletes only pay tribute to their fallen teammates after they’re… uh… dead?  Well, DeShawn Stevenson felt compelled to pay tribute to Arenas before the Wizards’ home game on Sunday after the WIzards’ top brass decided to erase Arenas from their programs, marketing campaigns, and memory.  Maybe “dead” is a little strong/inappropriate, but it’s looking more and more like Arenas is dead to the Wizards.

Yet Gilbert is still owned in 72% of Yahoo leagues, which tells me most of his owners are in denial.  Feel free to stay in that lovely state, at least for another week or so, if there are no quality FA left in your league.  But if there’s a hot item, jump on it.  The fact that Arenas’ infamous Twitter account is officially dead is probably more a sign of the times than a sign of remorse.

Although Randy Foye was the obvious favorite to take over at starting PG, I really liked Mike Miller as a better pickup last week because of his efficiency.  And while I still like him (and own him in one league), he already aggravated his calf injury in just his second game back.  So, Foye is the clear guy to own now, with Nick Young playing big minutes in Miller’s absence on Sunday as well.  Young is a nice start this week, assuming the Wizards won’t rush Miller back.  And I still like Caron Butler to pull it around… if he’s still a Wizard.

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Player Spotlight: Is the “old” Brandon Jennings back?

See that look in his eyes?  It's called infrared court vision.  (Getty Images)

See that look in his eyes? It's called infrared court vision. (Getty Images)

Brandon Jennings finally found the bottom of the net again last night, “breaking out” of an ugly shooting slump.  (He also hyperextended his knee in the third quarter, although it seems to be no big deal.)  Sure, it’s nice that he shot an Andrew Bogut-like FG% vs the Raptors, and I’ve been begging owners to be patient with Young Money and not to sell low on him, but does it really mean he broke out of his slump?  Or is something else going on here?  The answer might be in the splits

Jennings at home: 25.5 ppg, 5.9 apg, 3.6 rpg, 3.0 3pg, 47.9% FG, 56.9% 3PT, 80.4% FT

Jennings on the road: 16.4 ppg, 5.5 apg, 4.0 rpg, 1.4 3pg, 34.4% FG, 28.6% 3PT, 78.8% FT

Those are pretty drastic differences, especially in PTS, 3PM, and FG%.  (Of course, let’s not forget the double-nickel vs GS at home.)  Sure enough, his 10-game shooting slump started with the Bucks’ longest road trip of the year, at Memphis back on Nov. 21, with 7 of those 10 games on the road.

Does that mean Jennings is going to put up top 20 numbers at home and only top 100 numbers on the road?  Or did he just happen to hit a rough patch (with defenses finally learning how to slow him down) during a long road stretch?  I’m taking the safe answer here and going straight down the middle.  (I know.  How bold of me!)  Both of those factors — opposing teams’ gang-tackle defense and a long road trip — contributed to the rookie’s first slump.

So what?  Is the slump over?

If you are a (once-again) proud Jennings owner, hopefully you didn’t bail on him over the last couple weeks.  I expect those home and road splits to even out over the course of the year, although I wouldn’t be surprised if the home stats still look considerably better when all’s said and done.  But has he broken out of his slump?  Yes and no.  Yes, I think he has stopped the bleeding.  However, I’m not expecting him to start another hot streak right away.  Sure, he could torch Steve Blake and Derek Fisher in the next two games at home, but I think we’ll see some middle-of-the-road numbers over the next month or so.

However, it’s looking more and more like Jennings’ FG% will be sub-45% on the year, as he’s had one insanely hot stretch and one insanely cold stretch, and it’s all averaged out to 41.8% so far.  It also puts him at #57 in Yahoo rankings (by averages) on the year, although he’s probably ranked higher in ESPN leagues, most of which don’t count TO.  I think the PTS, REB, AST, and 3’s are here to stay, so his ultimate ranking depends on that FG%.  I’ve been saying for a while that I think he’ll finish in the top 50, although I amended that to “flirting with the top 50″ a couple weeks back if his FG% sunk.  (Note: There are also several other factors at play here, including Michael Redd’s return and Luke Ridnour’s emergence at the PG spot, shifting Jennings to SG for long stretches, so nothing is ever certain in fantasy.)

In other words, if people have been lobbing trade offers at you (and I would expect them to pick up again), I’d still target a safe top 50 player at the least, although you could probably get much better if you waited for another Jennings hot streak.  If you absolutely can’t stand his streakiness, I’d take my time getting the best offer possible, but just beware of the Bucks’ extended road trip starting January 10 (6 games, although 2 of them are against fantasy-friendly squads in PHO and GSW).

I actually recently traded Jennings for Paul Pierce in one roto league where my FG% is keeping me out of the top spot, as Pierce is enjoying his most efficient year in a while.  (No, I don’t think he can sustain 49.6% FG, but he’s taking more efficient shots while providing Jennings-esque across-the-board production.  But more on that in a different post.)  I’m hanging onto Jennings in my other leagues though, unless an “offer I can’t refuse” comes along.

If the season were to start today, which PG would you most want on your fantasy team?

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By the way… yes, I’m looking forward to that SAC/MIL matchup next week.  Can you say “Rookie Smackdown”?

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Week 6 Recap (Starring Kevin Love as Troy Murphy) and Week 7 Pickups

I'm so sad I can't even make fun of Oden's 58-yr-old face.  Oops I did it again.  (Getty Images)

I'm so sad I can't even make fun of Oden's 58-yr-old face. Oops I did it again. (Getty Images)

Week 6 featured the return of Chris Paul and Troy Murphy Kevin Love, although the “return” on everyone’s minds doesn’t come until tomorrow night in Philadelphia.  It also featured the fall of one of my favorite sleepers on the year.  Greg “Sigh” Oden.

Chris Paul

In case anyone forgot, Paul returned to the lineup earlier than expected to remind everyone why he’s the most valuable player in fantasy with a near triple-double (the CP3 way): 16 pts, 15 ast, and 8 stl.

Some other immediate ramifications: Peja Stojakovic’s shot attempts sunk to 10 after enjoying about 13 per game during Paul’s absence (although in Peja’s defense he was returning from a minor injury).  Emeka Okafor saw an immediate boost in productivity, and I expect David West to follow shortly, in case you were looking to BUY LOW on either.  And Devin Brown (2% owned in Yahoo leagues) is emerging as a fantasy-viable player as the starting SG, totaling 11 treys in Paul’s last 4 (complete) healthy games.

Kevin Love (and Al Jefferson)

Love did his best impersonation of Troy Murphy in his first two games of action, averaging 14.5 pts and 10.5 reb to go with 2.0 3pg.  The 3’s were a pleasant surprise and after hitting only 2 all of last year, it looks like he’ll take at least 1 or 2 attempts per game this year.

Meanwhile, Al Jefferson enjoyed his two best rebounding games in a while, totaling 25 in Love’s first two games back.  It might seem a little counter-intuitive, but I like this trend to continue, even when Love is inserted into the starting lineup.  As I mentioned back when Love got injured, Jefferson doesn’t have to shoulder the entire rebounding load anymore, as the other team will actually have to box out another legitimate rebounder now.  The other contributing factor?  Jefferson has looked lackadaisical at times this year, but not the last two games.  Energy is contagious around Love, and even though the Wolves won’t be fighting for a playoff spot anytime soon, I like Jefferson to play with a little more fire now that their squad has a legit chance to win every most some nights.

If you can convince Big Al’s owner that Love will actually eat into his stats, he could still be a nice BUY LOW option if you can get him at a reasonable price. Read the rest of this entry »

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Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Week 5 Recap and Week 6 Pickups (updated)

WEEK 5 RECAP

Week 5 featured the return of an old fantasy friend, the departure of a new fantasy stud, and the comings and goings (and potential returnings) of a fantasy legend.

Say it ain't so, AI!  Oh, that was easy... (AP)

"Brett Favre ain't got nothing on me!" (AP)

Allen Iverson

Iverson was probably my favorite player over the past decade, as I’ve always admired his “fight” and determination.  That’s why the announcing of his retirement came as a total shock to me.  Turns out, it might have been a little premature.  A week ago, the Knicks seemed like the only team desperate enough to give Iverson a starting job again.  Well, it’s funny what a broken jaw can do to a team’s desperation factor.  If the 76ers pick up Iverson, I don’t like him as much as I did had he become a Knick, but he’s probably too good to be a FA in most fantasy leagues.  (He’s currently available in 64% of Yahoo leagues; so keep a close eye on this situation.)

Lou Williams

Speaking of that broken jaw, Williams was absolutely killing it when I finally admitted I might have underestimated him in my last article.  If you own him, I’m sorry… I take all the blame for jinxing him.

It looks like Lou will be out 8 weeks.  I was just telling some readers that I might hang onto him if I’m in or near the lead in my league (or at least see how my team does for the next week).  On the other hand, if you’re in the middle of the pack in a H2H league, you might not be able to afford the roster spot.  Adding a wrinkle to the situation is Allen Iverson’s possible un-retirement, which would put a damper on William’s eventual return and might push me over the edge in dropping Lou.  By the way, so far the big “winners” from Williams’ injury are Andre Iguodala and Jrue Holiday (although beware of FG%’s!).

Mike Dunleavy

Dunleavy had a successful return last week, chipping in 13 pts against the Mavs in only 15 min (while adding 1 3pm/stl/blk).  That Indiana wing position suddenly looks crowded with Brandon Rush and Dahntay Jones in the mix too, but Dunleavy might have the most upside of all three.  And he’s currently available in over half (53%) of Yahoo leagues.

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Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Week 4 Recap and Week 5 Pickups

Don't call it a comeback, Brand's been here all year long.  He's just finally making some noise.  (Getty Images)

Don't call it a comeback, Brand's been here all year long. He's just finally making some noise. (Getty Images)

WEEK 4 RECAP

They’re Ba-aaack

Week 4 featured the return of several fantasy studs: Rashard Lewis, Devin Harris, Troy Murphy, and Pau Gasol.  (Thanks for playing, Ryan Andersen and Rafer Alston.  Here are some nice parting gifts…)

As for Murphy and Gasol, their fantasy impact is a little more complicated.  Murphy will definitely take away some of Roy Hibbert’s stats, but I think the young center will still be valuable contributing a near double-double with 2 bpg.  Meanwhile, if you didn’t sell high on Andrew Bynum before Gasol’s return, please don’t panic and let someone buy low on him these next few (or more?) games as he readjusts to Gasol.  19 and 11 might be a little much to expect, but he’ll be much better than 11 and 8 (his first game with Pau back).

On the flip side, Week 4 also saw some key injuries, including Jameer Nelson and Andrew Bogut.  If you’re looking for replacements, Jason Williams has had a couple decent games thus far, while Kurt Thomas/Hakim Warrick have each had a nice game (depending on the matchup) in Bogut’s absence.  (There are some more exciting pickups further below.)

They’re “Ba-aaack”

Week 4 also featured the “return” of two stud centers: Elton Brand and Al Jefferson. With Marresse Speights out of the way due to injury, Brand absolutely erupted, averaging 20 and 10 with 2.7/3.7 spg/bpg this week, good for the #2 ranking by averages in Yahoo leagues.  I’m not sure what to make of this unexpected outburst quite yet, as the 76ers lost two of those games and barely beat a new-look CHA team in the other game, but I’ll have my thoughts on whether Brand is a sell high or buy low guy shortly.

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Fantasy Basketball Sleepers 2009-10

Since you all are drafting him, might as well know what he looks like (Rocky Widner/NBAE/Getty Images)

Since you all are drafting him, might as well know what Anthony Randolph looks like (Rocky Widner/NBAE/Getty Images)

I’m not a huge fan of the term “sleeper” when it comes to fantasy basketball.  How many people does it take to jump on the bandwagon before someone graduates from being a Sleeper to becoming just plain Good?  In any case, I’ll try to point out some guys who should provide value where they’re drafted (as long as you don’t reach too far for them).

First of all, a list of guys who have graduated from becoming sleepers: Derrick Rose, Brook Lopez (in fact, they both skipped the whole step of becoming a sleeper), John Salmons, J.R. Smith, Francisco Garcia, Charlie Villanueva, Spencer Hawes, you get the idea.  Now then…

VALUE SLEEPERS (GUYS YOU ALREADY KNOW)

Jameer Nelson, ORL, PG

Nelson already came back from injury, and thankfully for his fantasy owners this year, he didn’t look so hot.  That last image of a player looking a step too slow can sometimes play tricks on fantasy owners, even if an entire summer has passed.  Nelson was a top 30 guy when he was healthy last year, and ORL had enough confidence in his playmaking ability to lose both Rafer Alston and Hedo Turkoglu in the offseason (although of course VC came aboard).  Current average draft position (ADP) in Yahoo leagues: 57.  I like him in the late fourth round (of a 12-team draft).

Chris Duhon, NY, PG

Going along with the “bad taste in your mouth” idea, Duhon made it look easy after the All Star break last year, as he frankly just burned out.  But remember, he’s still the starting PG on a Mike D’Antoni team.  Unless the management in New York has no clue how to run a team (quite possible), they’ll likely monitor Duhon’s minutes more closely this year.  So while he probably won’t drop 22 AST on anyone this year, he’s certainly capable of averaging 7+ apg over an entire year.  He’s not even cracking the top 100 in ADP, but I’d take him in the ninth, maybe eighth round.

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