Posts Tagged Kevin Martin

Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Why trading LeBron* might deliver you a H2H Championship

This will be my last post for the next couple weeks, as I’m going on vacation.  (Later, suckas!)  But before I leave, I just wanted to point out an important date coming up in 10 days: March 4, the trade deadline for most Yahoo leagues.  And if you own LeBron James, this might be your last chance to trade for Kevin Durant.

Hold on, WTF?!?!

I’ll explain further down below, but first: If you’re in a H2H league — and this post is primarily for H2H leaguers — this is your last chance to make your team as bulletproof as possible for the fantasy playoffs.  I’ve already done so for my own teams, but I suggest you click forward on your team’s weekly schedule to see if there are any particular weeks where the NBA scheduling gods have screwed you over.  These next 10 days are your best bet to make the schedule work in your favor.

Even if CP3 comes back at full strength and LeBron continues to dominate, Durant might be the fantasy MVP of H2H leagues. (Getty)

For example, skip ahead to Week 22 (Mar 22-28), the first or second week of most leagues’ fantasy playoffs.  You might notice that all (or almost all) of your players play on Mon/Wed/Fri/Sun, while nobody (or close to nobody) plays on Tues/Thur/Sat.  Well, if you’re only allowed to start 6, 8, or even 10 players per day, that means some of your players — maybe even some of your studs — might be riding the bench on Mon/Wed/Fri or Sun of that week.

Somehow, that’s what happened in one of my leagues, and I partially corrected the situation by making a trade I probably would’ve done anyway, by shipping out Al Jefferson and Brandon Jennings for Nene Hilario and Mike Miller.

Let’s ignore the fact that Big Al has been losing minutes to Darko (Darko?!) Milicic lately, or that Jennings’ FG% has amazingly declined every single month, or that Josh Howard is out for the year, perhaps rejuvenating Miller’s season.  Even if the players involved were exactly even, I just gained 3 extra games for that week because Miller has a Tues/Wed/Fri/Sat sked that week, while Nene has a Tues/Wed/Fri/Sun sked.  Meanwhile, Big Al and Jennings both have Mon/Wed/Fri/Sun skeds, like nearly everyone else on my squad, and I possibly wouldn’t even have used either that week.  (This particular league only has 6 starting spots per day.)  In other words, I just made my road to a three-peat in this league a little bit more manageable.  (Yes, that’s me kissing my own ass.)

Every league has different settings, so check to see when your playoffs start.  The first round is usually Week 22.  Before the season began, I actually did an analysis of which teams have the best playoff schedules — factoring in both total games played and if these games occur on “Off-Days”, or days with only a few games on the NBA schedule.  (Although, again, double-check your own schedule against the NBA schedule to see where you need help.)  This might help you get started though:

BEST PLAYOFF SCHEDULES

[Note: The specific numbers below are for leagues with playoffs from Mar 22 to Apr 14.  Apparently the Yahoo default is Mar 15 to Apr 4 this year.  Most of this still applies, but use it as a general guide, and I'll point out any big discrepancies.  For games by week (without the Off-Days), check out Basketball Monster's Schedule Grid.]

Chicago — plays 13 times over the last 3.5 weeks, and in leagues where you can only start 6-8 per night, CHI is especially useful as they have games on 3 Off-Days, 2 of which are during the finals.  How can you use this info for your benefit?  Well if you’re ballsy, buy low on Joakim Noah.  He’s a gamble, but if you’ve already secured a first round bye (and even more time for him to heal), he might be worth it.

There's a good chance all of the guys above will be in play during the fantasy playoffs. (Getty

Dallas — plays 13 times with 3 Off-Days.  I’ve been targeting Jason Kidd for a while…

[Note: In leagues where the playoffs begin Mar 15: DAL only has 2 games the first week.  In other words, only make a deal for Kidd if you're almost guaranteed of a first round bye.]

Houston — plays 14 times with 1 Off-Day.  As Trevor Ariza becomes option #3 or 3.5 in that HOU offense, I like his efficiency to increase, making him a potentially cheap addition this late in the season.  Kevin Martin is a good buy low target as well.

Washington — plays 14 times with 1 Off-Day.  By the way, yes, this fantasy-friendly playoff schedule is yet another reason why I’ve been so big on Andray Blatche.  When your opponent scrambles for spot starts from guys like David Andersen in Week 22, you’ll especially enjoy Blatche’s double-doubles.

Milwaukee, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, and Toronto — all play 14 times, but none on Off-Days.

Which brings us back to our initial topic: Why trading LeBron* might deliver you a H2H Championship.  Well, that asterisk has Durant’s name written all over it.  I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that KD will be on a higher percentage of H2H champion rosters than LBJ.  OKC’s fantasy playoff schedule is a big part of the reason; keep reading for the other half of the story…

[Note: In leagues where the playoffs begin Mar 15: WAS, HOU, and SA are the only teams to play 4 games each week.]

WORST PLAYOFF SCHEDULES

Cleveland and New Orleans — they both only play 11 times over the last 3.5 weeks.  But it’s not like you’d ever trade LeBron away…  Right?  Well, maaaaybe for Durant? Talk about ballsy, but 3 extra games over the entirety of the playoffs — one extra game per week — just might be worth it.  (Although in fairness, this is more like comparing 3 LeBron games + 1 ‘To be determined’ game vs. 4 Durant games.  But on the other hand, if you did decide to trade LeBron for Durant, you could probably get a pretty nice upgrade on another player — probably a PG to make up for the assists.  So many factors…)

[Note: In leagues where the playoffs begin Mar 15, CLE actually has a 4-game week for the first week, whereas OKC only has a 3-game week.  However, those of you with LeBron probably have a first round bye anyway.  So, for rounds 2 and 3 of your playoffs, you're actually comparing 3 LBJ games to 4 KD games each week.]

Also, New Orlean’s hideous fantasy schedule, including only 4 games during the finals (one and a half weeks in most leagues) is one reason why I didn’t gamble and trade for Chris Paul.

[Note: In leagues where the playoffs begin Mar 15, NO actually has a nice schedule, starting with a 4-game week.  While CP3 is a risky play for that week, he does have a nice 4-game week in the finals for these leagues.  If you have a first-round bye, Kidd or CP3 are nice gambles, with Kidd being safer of course.]

MIXED BAG PLAYOFF SCHEDULES

Denver — only plays 12 times, but 4 of those games come on Off-Days, including 2 during the finals.  Again, the Off-Days are more important in leagues starting less than 10 players per night, but this is a big reason why I targeted Nene in that specific league.

[Note: In leagues where the playoffs begin Mar 15, DEN is a great play.]

Portland — only plays 11 times, but 2 of those games come on Off-Days.

[Note: In leagues where the playoffs begin Mar 15, POR is still tricky, with only 8 games over 3 weeks, but 2 of those games on Off-Days.  Meanwhile, ORL is also tricky, with only 9 games over 3 weeks, but 2 of those games on Off-Days as well.]

And here, again, is the Off-Days chart, if I haven’t made this confusing enough already.  (No, this isn’t a Verizon 3G coverage chart.  “4G” means the team is playing on a night with only four NBA games on the schedule.  For example, take Week 1 of the fantasy playoffs (Week 22 overall, NOT Week 21).  Of Dallas’ 4 games that week, it plays one of them on a night with only 4 games on the schedule and another on a night with only 3 games on the schedule.)

Happy shopping.

In H2H leagues, who would you rather have during the fantasy playoffs (starting Mar 15)?

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In H2H leagues, who would you rather have during the fantasy playoffs (starting Mar 22)?

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Trade Fallout: Tracy McGrady traded for Kevin Martin (Damn you for making me rewrite this, Daryl Morey!)

Remember that last T-Mac post?  Perhaps you glossed over the Sacramento part of it.  That’s because Daryl Morey is a sneaky bastard.

Tracy McGrady is actually headed to Sacramento in exchange for Kevin Martin (hey, at least I was right about the “marquee player” part).  Also going to Sacto: Joey Dorsey and (shockingly) Carl Landry.  Also going to H-Town: Kenny Thomas, Hilton Armstrong, and Sergio Rodriguez.  There are still a lot of moving parts to this deal — for example, T-Mac could still end up in New York by Thursday night, and Rodriquez could end up elsewhere as well, as the Rockets already have two pretty good PG’s in Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry.  But here’s the initial fallout:

Biggest winner: Martin — he desperately needed a change in scenery, and while he still won’t get the 20+ shot attempts/game he was getting at the beginning of the year, I think his shots start falling sooner rather than later.  As I said in my false last T-Mac post, I also like Trevor Ariza to improve his efficiency now that he’s a clear #3 or even #3.5 scoring option.

Meanwhile, the athletic Armstrong has a chance to carve out a place in the HOU rotation, with Landry vacating 25-30 minutes of playing time there.  And if Sacto ends up shipping T-Mac away, expect Francisco Garcia to be relevant again, as a starter or as Donte Greene’s backup.  Omri Casspi should also rediscover some of that shooting touch he enjoyed earlier this year.

One more thing: It’s hard to argue against T-Mac here, as going from zero minutes to any minutes will likely help his fantasy value.  (Yes, I copied and pasted that from the previous post, and I’m not afraid to do it again if T-Mac ends up in NY.)

Keep an eye on: That three-headed frontcourt monster of Landry, Jason Thompson, and Spencer Hawes.  I think all three will still log minutes, but this trade definitely limits the upside of all three as well.

Biggest loser: If you were using Shane Battier in a deeper league, unfortunately he might start seeing his minutes squeezed soon.  Even if he still starts, you can expect Ariza to shift over to SF with Martin at SG for long stretches, and Battier’s stats have always been pretty well-correlated with his minutes.

On the Sacramento side, the fantasy “losers” really depend on whether or not T-Mac gets shipped out.  If he stays, he basically hurts those same guys — Garcia, Greene, and Casspi — I mentioned above.

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Week 12 Recap (Raaaaaaaandy!) and Week 13 Pickups

Week 12 featured a franchise quickly forgetting its (once) franchise player, the return of another (once?) franchise player in Sacramento, and the continued (and now seemingly sustainable) dominance of a player playing with a purpose.

(By the way, “Raaaaaaaandy!” is actually spelled exactly correctly.  It’s a reference to Aziz Ansari’s character in the movie Funny People.  Check it out at LaughYourDickOff.com.  Yes, you read that right.)

Randy Foye got off to such a hot start as Agent 0's replacement, you knew Fantasy Hoopster had to trade him.  (Getty Images)

Randy Foye got off to such a hot start as Agent 0's replacement, you knew Fantasy Hoopster had to trade him. (Getty Images)

Randy Foye

Gilbert who?  Life went on in WAS without Gilbert Arenas, with Antawn Jamison picking up much of the slack.  But it was Foye who particular impressed this past week, playing the best stretch of his year, so of course I just traded him.  Was it the right move?  Who knows, but here’s my reasoning.

Reasons to sell high: He’s shooting well above his career FG% right now.  If Caron Butler or Jamison gets traded, that might translate into more points but at a less efficient rate, which equals a bad tradeoff in my mind (at least for my particular team).  Also, when Mike Miller returns that’ll likely dent into Foye’s AST totals.

Reasons to keep: Apparently he has the reins to the team.  He took shots at the end of both overtimes (missing both) against Chicago.  Maybe he just needed a new setting and style of offense to excel.  His only (current) competition at PG is technically considered a dwarf in certain countries.

Obviously, I leaned towards the former.  In my trade, I packaged Foye along with Andre Iguodala (I also threw in Yi Jianlian) for Dwyane Wade and a couple scrubs who I plan to drop for Luke Ridnour and another player to be determined.  Yes, I know I overpaid, but the trade made sense to me for several reasons, which I might point out in another post if people are interested.

Also, going back to an earlier post when Arenas was first suspended, back then I decided not to drop Nate Robinson for Foye, but then quickly decided to drop Tyrus Thomas instead.  I’m sure most of you have already figured out Foye is currently the hottest player of all three, although as exhibited on Saturday night, he’s not perfect.

Kevin Martin

Martin returned this week and quickly resumed draining threes again.  That’s not too surprising.  The more interesting subplot (or is it main plot now?) to this story involves his effect on a couple of Sacto’s rising rookies: Tyreke Evans and Omri Casspi.

Two games isn’t much of a sample, but it appears as if Evans won’t be affected too much at all — he still controlled the ball for the most part and his shot attempts were still there — while Casspi’s role in the offense was reduced.  This isn’t too surprising; even though Martin just signed a nice extension, I’d argue Evans is Sacto’s new franchise player now.  It’s still early, but I’m glad I didn’t advise anyone to sell high on Evans.  Sadly, I also didn’t have enough balls to advise trading for him from a panicked manager who might’ve sold him on the cheap.  Either way, if you own Evans I’d breathe a slight sigh of relief, although everything is fluid in fantasy of course.

As for Casspi, I think some of those shot attempts might come back, but probably not at a consistent enough level for him to be mentioned in the fantasy ROY race anymore.  Evans and Martin are going to get their shots, so that probably means a lot of inconsistency for the rest of the Kings, especially Casspi.

ROY Race

This hasn’t been much of a race lately, at least not between Brandon Jennings and Tyreke Evans.  (Hello, Stephen Curry with your 6 stl/fouls against MIL on Friday night.)  I just mentioned Evans has a great chance to retain most of his value even with KevMart back, but it’s the absence of Michael Redd that might revitalize Jennings’ season.  Jennings is clearly a rhythm shooter, and he never quite found the rhythm (or volume) for his shots with Redd back.  But now that he (and Andrew Bogut) are the primary offensive options in MIL again, Jennings has a chance to get back to his old numbers… although I wouldn’t expect him to shoot above 40%.  If you can handle the ugly shooting, you might be able to snag him with a lowball offer.

Samuel Dalembert

Dalembert has been on a tear the entire month of January, and his last couple games have been particularly sweet.  In the past, I’ve recommended him as a waiver wire pickup that people should sell high on if possible because of his historic inconsistency, but I think I’m changing my tune now, for two (non-stat-based) reasons.

Dalembert’s productivity (along with a lot of other NBA players) is often directly related to his motivation/focus.  Well non-stat-based reason #1 that I like Sammy D the rest of the way is because he really plays with more passion whenever Allen Iverson is on the court.  Back when Iverson was first signed by the 76ers, I mentioned Dalembert even had dreams that AI would return to the squad.  Man-crush or motivation?  Who knows, but it’s translated into great numbers for Sammy D.

Non-stat-based reason #2, on the other hand, is no joking matter at all.  Dalembert is a native Haitian, and in the two games since the tragedy in Haiti, a lot of people have been saying he’s played with a clear focus (14.5 ppg and 16.5 rpg with 2 bpg while shooting a combined 13-15 from the floor).  I hate to bring reality into a blog about pure fantasy, but if you’ve ever had something absolutely shitty happen to you in real life, I’m sure you can relate with “focusing on work” as a temporary escape.  I don’t think NBA players are an exception to that, and it looks like Dalembert might be playing with a heavy heart from here on out.

By the way, there are a ton of ways to help out with the earthquake in Haiti.  Here’s one organization that’s already been working there for 20 years that some friends of mine have volunteered for.  It’s called Partners in Health, and I know they make a difference if you’re worried about how your donations are spent.

standwithhaiti

And in other Week 12 (fantasy) news:

As the guys at GiveMeTheRock point out, Charlotte is on a roll, led by none other than Stephen JacksonGerald Wallace and Raymond Felton are still playing well, but the other big fantasy news out of CHA is Boris Diaw, who is finally adjusting to his new teammate.  Buy low if you can.

In LA, Pau Gasol returned from injury, and Andrew Bynum decided to put up another great line.  This is encouraging news if you own Bynum, although I wouldn’t expect it to be the norm.  I still expect Bynum to have many more night like this, but with some mediocre games sprinkled in.

In Chicago, Joakim Noah is on fire from the free throw line and the sole reason why I’ve risen a couple spots in that category so far this month in one roto league.

In Indiana, Roy Hibbert is on fire from everywhere… and that’s with Danny Granger and Troy Murphy back.  Remember when I said he’d average a double-double with 2 bpg back when he was mired in a slump?  Even I laughed at myself.  Expect some inconsistency, but I’m glad/relieved I still have him in all my leagues.

WEEK 13 PICKUPS

Since my top pick from last week is still owned in less than half of Yahoo leagues, I’ll just mention Kirk Hinrich (49%) first.  Okay, there.  Now onto to some fresh meat.

Rasual Butler (26%)

Just in case you were wondering who that guy who keeps hitting 3's for your team looks like... (Getty Images)

Just in case you were wondering who that guy who keeps hitting 3's for your team looks like... (Getty Images)

Okay, so he’s not exactly fresh because this is probably the fourth time he’s made this list.  Also, I alluded to this earlier in the week, but with Blake Griffin out for the year, both Butler and Al Thornton don’t have to look over their shoulders quite as much anymore.  I much prefer Butler (as does Mike Dunleavy Sr.), and he has a real chance to keep up his current pace of 13.8 ppg with 1.7 threes as starting SF (including 33 pts and 4 treys versus the Cavs Saturday night), albeit with some inconsistency.

DeJuan Blair (23%)

I mentioned Blair in a recent Eye-Opening Lines post.  Since then, the undersized center had 8 and 8 in a foul-plagued game against MEM.  If you need a big man, check him out.

Luke Ridnour (38%), Ersan Ilyasova (38%), and Carlos Delfino (6%)

I mentioned these guys last week, and I still like them to benefit from Michael Redd’s season-ending injury (roughly in this order).  At one point earlier in the year, Ridnour was actually ranked in the top 50 as he was an efficient source of 3’s and ast.  Meanwhile Ilyasova had already been solid in recent weeks, while Delfino exploded for 28 pts in his last game.

Robin Lopez (7%)

I’ve been waiting for Lopez to eat into Channing Frye’s minutes all year and it finally happened last week.  In PHO’s two most recent games, Lopez averaged 12.5 ppg and 4.5 bpg in 27 mpg (all season highs).  One of the games was a blowout; one was highly contested.  I’m not sure if this is a trend, but pay close to attention if you need blk.

Some guys I’ve spent plenty of ink on already:

Mike Miller (37% — no official word on return, but should be owned in most leagues), Martell Webster (47%), Matt Barnes (29% — if you’re worried about Rashard Lewis, it’s actually Barnes and not Vince Carter who is hurting him more)

Some other guys to keep an eye on:

Corey Brewer (34%), Jonas Jerebko (7% — back in the starting lineup…for now), Delonte West (21%), Steve Blake (10% — still hitting 3’s as a sub), Vladimir Radmanovic (5% — check status), Chuck Hayes (12% — last week’s averages were inflated by a monster 3OT game, but he was relevant earlier in the year), Earl Watson (10%), Jared Jeffries (1% — still a cheap source of stl/blk), James Posey (5%), Shannon Brown (2%), DeAndre Jordan (3% — check Chris Kaman’s status)

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Week 10 Recap (Starring Gilbert Arenas as a Washington Bullet) and Week 11 Pickups

Three explosive fantasy guards dominated the headlines in Week 10, with only one of them doing it for the right reasons.

Are you ready for your mug shot, or, er, close up, Mr. Arenas?  (The Canadian Press)

Are you ready for your mug shot, or, er, close up, Mr. Arenas? (The Canadian Press)

Gilbert Arenas

Is that a gun in your pocket or are you just happy to…  Oh.  That is a gun in your pocket.  Agent Zero made headlines for all the wrong reasons this week as he inexplicably brought/stored three guns at work.  In his defense though, he’s kind of a bonehead (and the guns were unloaded).  There are sources reporting everything from Hibachi trying to pull off a practical joke gone awry to Arenas and teammate Javaris Crittenton going Alien vs. Predator on one another over a gambling debt.  I have a feeling it’s a little closer to the former, but regardless of the intent, this doesn’t bode well if you own Arenas.

Some people, including Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo sports, think Arenas could be in store for an extended suspension.  David Stern is hard to predict, but if he decides to make an example of Arenas, Caron Butler and Randy Foye (in theory) would enjoy an immediate jump in value.  We should all know Arenas’ fate by Monday.  Keep your fingers crossed if you spent a third round pick on him.

Nate Robinson

KryptoNate came back down to earth on Sunday, but I think you can forgive him after his 41-pt, 6-reb, 8-ast effort on Friday night — single-handedly carrying the Knicks over the Hawks.  In his post-game interview, Robinson seemed genuinely humbled by his month layoff at the hands of Mike D’Antoni, and more importantly, in the game he seemed hungry.  He’s still available in 47% of Yahoo leagues.  (I added him in one league over the weekend.)

And on a side note, Larry Hughes hasn’t played the last 2 games.

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Week 9 Recap (All Carl Landry wants for Christmas is his 2-pt buckets) and Week 10 Pickups

Elbows to his face aren't the only high-percentage shots Carl Landry is taking lately.  (Getty Images)

Elbows to his face aren't the only high-percentage shots Carl Landry is taking lately. (Getty Images)

Week 9 featured the return of some quality fantasy backups, the emergence and re-emergence of some efficiency experts, and the re-emergence of an inefficiency expert.

Tyrus Thomas, Leandro Barbosa, and Jameer Nelson

All three guys returned this week, and I’m pretty psyched to have all three on one of my squads (Thomas and Barbosa as of two weeks ago).  Thomas made the biggest noise with a 21 and 9 performance vs. the Hornets Saturday night, while Barbosa had a couple solid games and Nelson was a little up-and-down.  Needless to say, all three should be taken in most formats.

Zach Randolph and Carl Landry

Meanwhile, two guys who started off the season with fairly pedestrian numbers have really stepped their games up over the last several weeks.  Don’t look now, but Z-Bo is averaging 23 and 14 in the month of December on 51% shooting from the field and a ridiculous 92% from the stripe.  Meanwhile, Carl “All I want for Christmas is my two front teeth” Landry has averaged 17.6 and 5.6 on a whopping 63% from the field and 86% from the stripe (and with a nice 7 attempts per game).

They’re also both relatively cheap trade targets, for different reasons.  Landry, because he’s still relatively unknown, and Randolph, because he’s traditionally known as only a “points and rebounds” guy, which is still mostly true (he’s also at 1.1 spg over the last month), but his efficiency has translated into a #28 ranking by Yahoo averages over the last month.  (Landry is #44.)  Both will likely drop off  some, but if you’re going to target either, you can probably get Landry at a much better value, although you might want to wait for him to stop having 20-point games before making an offer.

(And speaking of efficiency, I also wanted to note another potentially “cheap” guy.  Raymond Felton is ranked a ridiculous #14 over the last month, shooting 53% from the field and 90% from the line.  Again, he likely can’t keep that up, but he looks to have turned a corner with his improved shot selection.)

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Week 8 Recap (T-Mac plays “7 Minutes in Heaven”) and Week 9 Pickups

7 minutes in heaven?  Seventh graders are getting more play than T-Mac is right now...  (Getty Images)

7 minutes in heaven? Seventh graders are getting more play than T-Mac is right now... (Getty Images)

In Week 8, some of the most important fantasy happenings occurred off the court, with several fantasy stars on the verge of returning to the court.  It also featured Superman returning to form, T-Mac getting “out-played” by seventh graders, and a possible new contender in the fantasy ROY race.

Lou Williams, Jameer Nelson, and Tyrus Thomas (and Marreese Speights)

Hopefully you heard some of my barking (as well as some of the guys on my message boards) and were quick enough to pick up Williams, Nelson, or Thomas over the past week.  Williams actually already returned to action with a subpar outing versus the Clippers, but with Allen Iverson out at least a week due to arthritis, Sweet Lou will have plenty of time to get back into form… and before we know it, Iverson will be the one adjusting to him instead of the other way around.

Meanwhile, Nelson is expected to return early in Week 9, while Thomas will likely return at the end of the week.  And another guy who returned to the lineup after an extended absence and has already turned in 3 solid (including one great) game is Marreese Speights.  With both Elton Brand and Samuel Dalembert healthy and playing decently, I’m not expecting too much consistency from Speights.  But if you need help at C, he’s definitely worth a look, and he’s only taken in 30% of Yahoo leagues right now.

By the way, if you missed out on any of the above guys, the next (mini) wave of injured guys returning includes Leandro Barbosa (expected to return around mid-to-late week) and in deeper leagues, Yi Jianlian (expected back mid-week).

Dwight Howard

Meanwhile, Superman returned to form, averaging 17 and 18 with 4.5 bpg in 4 games.  It’s no coincidence this Superman-esque stretch occurred after a Dec. 11 game at Phoenix in which the Suns went Hack-a-Howard and allowed D-12 to only get off 1 (yes ONE) field goal attempt.  I unsuccessfully tried to buy low on Howard all year in one H2H league where I already own Rajon Rondo and Andrew Bogut (FT% punt, anyone?), and that window has probably slammed shut for good now.  Oh well.

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Week 7 Recap (Raymond Felton is a model of efficiency) and Week 8 Pickups

In Week 7, Rip Hamilton and Michael Redd returned from injury.  Allen Iverson returned from the grave.  Several fast-starters hit a wall.  Raymond Felton did his best Chris Paul impersonation.  And in the biggest news of all, Danny Granger did his best, well, Danny Granger impersonation.  (And Jose Calderon might have done his Jose Calderon impersonation as well.)

Is Raymond Felton turning into a crafty veteran?  Because here he sure looks like that old dude at the Y who somehow uses his elbows when he shoots.  (Getty Images)

Is Raymond Felton turning into a crafty veteran? Because here he sure looks like that old dude at the Y who somehow uses his off-elbow when he shoots. (Getty Images)

Danny Granger

I already posted an immediate reaction to Granger’s injury, and a lot of it holds true.  As a lot of you agreed, Mike Dunleavy is the guy to own, especially after a monster performance against the Wizards Friday.  Roy Hibbert indeed shifted into the starting lineup and has taken about 12 shots per game since DG went down, but he only hit those shots in one game where he went off for 20 and 9 (on his birthday).  Once those shots start falling, he’ll be a very useful fantasy C over the next month.  I’d expect somewhere in the neighborhood of 14 and 8 with 1.5 bpg.  And last but not least, Tyler Hansbrough has had three very solid performances, averaging about 18 and 7 with 1.7 spg.

Raymond Felton

It’s already almost been a month since Stephen Jackson was traded to Charlotte, and there are some clear patterns emerging.  First of all, I decided to play my “wild card” guess on Gerald Wallace, predicting that Jackson’s arrival would spark him, so I’ll pat myself on the back for that.  I also took an educated guess that Raymond Felton’s AST would go down, which was also true (barely), but I didn’t expect his value to skyrocket to the tune of a #57 ranking over the last month (Yahoo averages).


FG% FT% 3PM PTS REB AST STL BLK TO
Raymond Felton .482 .769 0.9 11.9 3.2 5.1 2.2 0.1 1.6

There’s a few things working in Felton’s favor here.  First of all, he’s enjoying what might be his most efficient stretch in his career, shooting 48% from the field (career 40%) with only 1.6 TO per game (career 2.7) over the last month.  A lot of that has to do with taking less shots because of Jackson, and also more efficient shots playing alongside another playmaker for once.  Over the last week in particular, he’s shooting 60% from the field with 3.7 spg, which probably qualifies him as a sell high candidate… Read the rest of this entry »

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Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Week 4 Recap and Week 5 Pickups

Don't call it a comeback, Brand's been here all year long.  He's just finally making some noise.  (Getty Images)

Don't call it a comeback, Brand's been here all year long. He's just finally making some noise. (Getty Images)

WEEK 4 RECAP

They’re Ba-aaack

Week 4 featured the return of several fantasy studs: Rashard Lewis, Devin Harris, Troy Murphy, and Pau Gasol.  (Thanks for playing, Ryan Andersen and Rafer Alston.  Here are some nice parting gifts…)

As for Murphy and Gasol, their fantasy impact is a little more complicated.  Murphy will definitely take away some of Roy Hibbert’s stats, but I think the young center will still be valuable contributing a near double-double with 2 bpg.  Meanwhile, if you didn’t sell high on Andrew Bynum before Gasol’s return, please don’t panic and let someone buy low on him these next few (or more?) games as he readjusts to Gasol.  19 and 11 might be a little much to expect, but he’ll be much better than 11 and 8 (his first game with Pau back).

On the flip side, Week 4 also saw some key injuries, including Jameer Nelson and Andrew Bogut.  If you’re looking for replacements, Jason Williams has had a couple decent games thus far, while Kurt Thomas/Hakim Warrick have each had a nice game (depending on the matchup) in Bogut’s absence.  (There are some more exciting pickups further below.)

They’re “Ba-aaack”

Week 4 also featured the “return” of two stud centers: Elton Brand and Al Jefferson. With Marresse Speights out of the way due to injury, Brand absolutely erupted, averaging 20 and 10 with 2.7/3.7 spg/bpg this week, good for the #2 ranking by averages in Yahoo leagues.  I’m not sure what to make of this unexpected outburst quite yet, as the 76ers lost two of those games and barely beat a new-look CHA team in the other game, but I’ll have my thoughts on whether Brand is a sell high or buy low guy shortly.

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Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Eye-Opening Lines from Week 2

The only thing that can stop Kaman so far is Kaman himself.  Or Reggie Evans' right hand.  (AP)

The only thing that can stop Kaman so far is Kaman himself. Or Reggie Evans' right hand. (AP)

Week 2 had plenty of surprises, including a fantasy stud who keeps getting better, some old-timers rising from the dead, some sleepers living up to the hype, and plenty of potential free agents who might be able to help your squad.

THE RICH GET RICHER

Chris Paul

First of all, I just want to point out one of the sickest stats of this young season.  As if there was any doubt who the (statistically) best fantasy player in the league is, Paul has hit a ridiculous 72% of his threes this year.  (He’s only hitting 64% of his overall shots though.  Slacker.)

ZOMBIELAND

Meanwhile, a handful of fantasy old-timers (some older than others) have seemingly risen from the dead to put up top-notch fantasy stats.

Andrei Kirilenko

In 4 November games, AK-47 approached his pre-Boozer/Deron AK-47 numbers with 1.8 spg/bpg to go along with 13 ppg and solid %’s, good for a top 25 Yahoo ranking by averages.

Chris Kaman

Kaman’s monster season continued in week 2.  His game log speaks for itself.  Sell high, anyone?

Andrew Bogut

It’s been a couple years since Bogut was a top-tier fantasy C, but last week he sure played like one, averaging 18 and 10 with 1/2 spg/bpg.  With Michael Redd coming back in the next week or so, I’m not sure Bogut will continue to get 14 shots per game, but he’s clearly found his offensive rhythm again.

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Draft Strategy: Gilbert vs. The World

"Aflac!"  Gilbert Gottfried, all de time (Scott Gries/Getty Images)

"Aflac!" -Gilbert Gottfried, all de time (Scott Gries/Getty Images)

"When I had fun, I got criticized. So we’ll see what happens when I’m serious.” Gilbert Arenas, September 2009 (AP/Haraz Ghanbari)

"When I had fun, I got criticized. So we’ll see what happens when I’m serious.” -Gilbert Arenas, Sept 2009 (AP/Haraz Ghanbari)

It just might be the single-most important decision affecting fantasy leagues this season.  And the answer’s right here: I’m drafting Gilbert Gottfried in the third round of my Fantasy Jewish Comedians League.  Think about it.  He’s basically the Jason Kidd of Jewish comedians, consistently delivering across multiple platforms: television, film, even video games.

“Thanks for wasting my time, buddy.  But where the hell do I draft Gilbert Arenas?”  I’m glad you asked.  I’m also glad Erik over at Points in the Paint already answered this question, because it makes my life a whole lot easier.

So what’s the point of this article?  First, I’m going to touch on one great point Erik makes that I also alluded to in my Draft Rankings, as well as pose two important questions you should ask yourself on draft day.  And I’ll throw in a case study… FOR FREE!  (By the way, you’ll see I have Gilbert ranked #39.  I’ll explain why I have him down there, but you’ll probably have to draft him much earlier if you want him.)  Second, I’m going to touch on “The World” part of Gilbert vs. The World.  Namely, how does Agent 0’s return affect two other fantasy studs: Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison?

THE GILBERT PART

Okay.  This is it.  The third round’s about to begin.  Gilbert’s still on the board.  What do you do?  For me, it comes down to two (okay, three) questions:

a) Who else is on the draft board?

b) Who else is on my team?  (And who else do I want on my team later?)

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