Posts Tagged John Salmons

Trade Fallout: So many trades, so few roster spots

Wow, that was a busy trade season.  I haven’t seen that many players swapped since baseball cards were still cool to collect.  But since, realistically, most of us only had one or two roster spots to tinker with, how do we make sense of all the trade winners and losers?  Well, here’s my preliminary ranking (by tiers) of guys who are available in 50+% of Yahoo leagues (at least, before the trading deadline):

MUST-OWNS

Andray Blatche

First game post-Jamison and Haywood said it all, even if it came against the undersized T-Wolves.

Omri Casspi

Put up top 50 numbers when Martin was out earlier this year, and is a clear building block of the franchise.

Tyrus Thomas

With ample playing time, expect some wild stl/blk stat lines in the future.

JaVale McGee (at least in deeper leagues)

Like Blatche, he had an eye-opening effort against the T-Wolves,  Before that, he’s been very promising in stretches, albeit inconsistent.  He’s in the top tier because of his upside and the fact that his FT% isn’t nearly as bad as another C I’ll mention below.

NICE-TO-OWNS

Taj Gibson

Should see a nice boost while Joakim Noah is out.  Otherwise, at least he should enjoy a nice boost in confidence with Thomas gone.

Sergio Rodriguez

This guy might belong in the top tier if he can take Chris Duhon’s starting job, as has been rumored.  He’s probably a must-own in deeper leagues based purely on speculation.

Tracy McGrady

It’s kind of sad I would rather own Sergio Rodriguez right now, but T-Mac probably has more upside than anyone on this list.  He’s the true wild card of this group.

Josh Howard

Okay, he’s probably already taken in your league.  But if not, I’d rank him right below T-Mac.

Rasual Butler

Al Thornton’s exit and Travis Outlaw’s uncertain return mean big minutes for Butler.

DeAndre Jordan

Mixed bag in first two games post-Marcus Camby.  His upside is equal to McGee’s, but in his career as a starter he’s shooting a putrid 36% on a substantial 4.4 FT attempts per game.  His inconsistency might not be worth that negative pressure.

Craig Smith

Doesn’t do much besides score and score efficiently.  Those looking to make a last minute charge up the FG% ranks in roto leagues should consider him.

Francisco Garcia

He was a stud last year after the Kings traded away John Salmons.  The only problem this year — Tyreke Evans, Donte Greene, and Omri Casspi are all emerging and playing well.  And who knows what Larry Hughes’ role will be.

Donte Greene

See: Garcia, Francisco.

KEEP AN EYE ON

Nate Robinson

I dropped Nate for JaVale McGee in what was a needs-based move in one league, but BOS might actually be a good situation for Nate.  You know they want to rest Ray Allen for the playoffs, so it’s possible Nate could get 25-30 mpg as an instant offense sixth man.  Or, he could get the same minutes Eddie House was getting.  Who knows?  So keep an eye on him.

Nick Young

WAS is playing for the future, and Young would qualify as such.  If you need 3′s, they might start falling soon…

Rudy Fernandez and Jerryd Bayless

Even with Steve Blake gone, these guys kind of cancel each other out.  If Brandon Roy continues to be hampered by his hammy, both would enjoy instant upgrades.

Jared Jeffries and Hilton Armstrong

Jeffries’ skills are a perfect match for Houston’s style of play.  However, he probably won’t get close to the minutes he was getting in NY.  We’ll have to wait and see what that averages out to.  And speaking of playing time, Armstrong will be battling Jeffries for the minutes that Carl Landry vacated in Houston.  He hasn’t done much this year, but has been useful for stretches in the past.

Hakim Warrick

He doesn’t do much besides score, but CHI chose him over more defensive big men like Kurt Thomas and Francisco Elson for a reason.  With Salmons gone, Warrick could be leaned on for some (unorthodox) post scoring.

Beno Udrih

Udrih was useful the first time Martin was missing games, but the return of Francisco Garcia complicates that backcourt enough for me to be cautiously optimistic about Udrih the rest of the way.

Al Thornton

A change of scenery might do him good, but he’s still playing behind Mike Miller and Howard.

IT’S NOT YOU, IT’S ME…

You might not want to cut some of these guys right away, but if you have to in order to snatch one of the “Must-Owns” I’d probably make the move.

Channing Frye

I’m sticking Frye on this list because he was probably hurt the most by the Suns’ inability to trade Amare Stoudemire.  He could still very possibly get hot for multiple games at a time, but Robin Lopez is entrenched as the starter now, killing Frye’s consistency.  (I’d hang onto him in deeper leagues though.)

J.J. Hickson and Anderson Varejao

Again, maybe wait at least a couple days before dropping these guys, but that CLE frontcourt is awfully crowded now. But do what you gotta do and don’t look back.

Drew Gooden

Looks like he’s staying in Clipperland, where he might actually be somewhat useful, but his upside is limited.

Ronnie Brewer and Charlie Bell

Brewer and Bell are headed to the MEM and MIL benches, and there are definitely more attractive fish in the sea.

Zydrunas Ilgauskas

If his contract is bought out, he’s worthless for 4 weeks.  If he rejoins CLE or goes to DAL, it’s not much better.

Erick Dampier

I was down on him from the start.  A broken finger sealed his fate.

Did I miss anyone?  Of course I did.  Feel free to let me know below…

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

3 Comments

Trade Fallout: McGrady, Thomas, Robinson, Salmons, Boozer(?)

Thanks to the recession and the possibility of an NBA lockout next season, trading is fast and furious this season.  I’ll try to rank the biggest gainers by the end of today, as you’ll need to be quick to grab some of these names off FA lists.  So far, among potentially available pickups, Andray Blatche appears to be the biggest winner, with JaVale McGee, DeAndre Jordan, Craig Smith, Donte Greene, and Francisco Garcia trailing.  But more on that later.

You should be checking Rotowire, Rotoworld, and Adrian Wojnarowski’s Twitter feed (all in the right-hand column) up until the trade deadline of 3 pm EST and even a couple hours after, as some trades come in late.  Here’s some of the latest chatter I haven’t covered yet:

Tracy McGrady to NY (after all)

McGrady is worth a flyer in most leagues.  With Larry Hughes headed to SAC, Donte Greene and Francisco Garcia’s prospects look slightly dimmer, and I’d probably rather gamble on McGrady.

Meanwhile, for those of you looking for assists, keep an eye on Chris Duhon’s new backup, Sergio Rodriguez.  They could very well swap roles by the end of the season.

John Salmons to MIL

Salmons will likely start at SG and gets an immediate upgrade.  Charlie Bell loses his starting job, while Carlos Delfino might lose some touches.

Tyrus Thomas to CHA

Thomas gets a boost in CHA as his playing time will likely increase.  Boris Diaw might take a slight hit, while Gerald Wallace’s rebounding numbers might also dip some.

Nate Robinson to BOS

Initially I didn’t like this move for Nate, but check tonight’s game to see what his his role will (roughly) be.

Carlos Boozer to MIA?

Apparently, UTA and MIA are in last minute trade talks.  As a Paul Millsap owner, I’m hoping this happens.  As a D-Wade fan, I’m also hoping this happens.

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

No Comments

Trade Fallout: Tracy McGrady (to be) traded for the Knicks Bench… or the Bulls Bench

And I thought I procrastinated.

The Rockets are nearing a deal with the Knicks that would send Tracy McGrady to New York for Jared Jeffries, Jordan Hill, Larry Hughes and an assortment of draft picks/swaps/etc.  OR… a deal that would send T-Mac to the Bulls for Tyrus Thomas, Brad Miller, and John Salmons or Kirk Hinrich.

If you own any Rockets, you’re hoping for the first deal, as those incoming Knicks players won’t “interfere” as much with current team chemistry.  Since Houston has just been looking for a marquee player or future prospects (and because I’m feeling a little bit lazy), I’m guessing they go with the Knicks deal as well.  The fallout (Daryl Morey, please don’t make me re-write this post):

Biggest winner: It’s hard to argue against T-Mac here, as going from zero minutes to any minutes will likely help his fantasy value.  Although Mike D’Antoni has said as recently as last weekend that he planned to play “the kids” the rest of the way, he has also (contradictorily) said he’ll play T-Mac.  And here’s my theory on why:

Mike D’Antoni to LeBron and/or D-Wade: “Hey, if raggedy T-Mac can average 15-5-5 with this supporting cast, just imagine what you can do!”

So, yeah, expect T-Mac to get some run.  Don’t expect his percentages to be anywhere near respectable, but if they let him play, he’s going to put up stats.

Keep an eye on: The Knicks roster.  Jeffries was the only player of the three dealt getting significant playing time, which one would assume T-Mac will take a chunk of.  That means everyone else should get a couple more minutes, especially guys like Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari.  But Jeffries also didn’t shoot as much as T-Mac probably will, so it remains to be seen how their scoring will be affected.  If the Knicks successfully shop Al Harrington, those two guys in particular will probably gain the most.

Biggest loser: Jeffries was already only useful in deeper leagues, but I find it hard for him to maintain his numbers, which took him 30+ (and sometimes 40) mpg to get.

But the real (collective) biggest loser is all of the Houston Rockets, as the three newbies each have potential to carve out a place in the rotation.  I think Aaron Brooks is the only guy whose numbers won’t be affected.  But guys like Carl Landry and Luis Scola could easily lose some touches/rebounds to Jeffries and Hill.  They’re still worth owning, but the chance of an occasional dud just got a little bit higher for those guys.

The one exception might be Trevor Ariza, who has already been supplanted by Brooks as the #1 scoring option earlier in the year and later by Landry as the #2 scoring option.  If Ariza gets knocked down to, say, the #4 option, I think most owners would actually welcome the increased efficiency.

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

No Comments

Trade Winds: Eastern Conference

Get ready for one of the most important weeks of the fantasy basketball season.  The days leading up to the trade deadline (February 18) can make or break fantasy squads.  Since there are no more games this week, you should be filling your ‘dead’ roster spots with guys who would benefit from possible trades, if you haven’t already.  (See: Francisco Garcia, 2009 or Drew Gooden, 2008.)

If you've got a dead roster spot, it might be worth it to stash someone like Blatche for the next 6 days.  (Getty)

If you've got a dead roster spot, it might be worth it to stash someone like Blatche for the next 6 days. (Getty)

For example, one of the most popular pieces of trade bait is Troy Murphy.  Nobody knows where he will go (or if he will go), but the biggest winner from a Murphy trade would be Roy Hibbert.  Since Hibbert’s probably already taken, you’d want to keep an eye on Tyler Hansbrough.  He’s currently injured but would be a safe bet to get 25-30 mpg once he returns.  And lastly, the biggest loser of this deal would probably be Murphy himself (especially if he winds up in CLE, but maybe not if he winds up in SAC).

Got it?  Since there are so many rumored scenarios, I’m just going to run through the most popular trade targets and the ripple effect that would happen if they were moved.  Of course, this is imperfect because I’m (mainly) looking at one side of the deal, so just consider this a general set of guidelines before the actual deals start getting announced next week.

ANTAWN JAMISON

Biggest winner: Andray Blatche

Biggest loser: Probably Jamison (the most likely destination for him is CLE, which is already stacked with bigs)

CARON BUTLER

Biggest winner: Mike Miller (in store for a bigger role)

Keep an eye on: Nick Young (Miller might shift to the SF spot, freeing up the starting SG spot)

Biggest loser: I would’ve said Butler, but this might actually jumpstart him.

ELTON BRAND

Biggest winner: Marreese Speights

Keep an eye on: Thaddeus Young

Biggest loser: The PF on whatever team Brand is headed to.

ANDRE IGUODALA

Biggest winner: Lou Williams (if Willie Green plays more minutes at the SF spot, it could finally relieve that backcourt traffic jam)

Keep an eye on: Willie Green and Thaddeus Young

Biggest loser: The SF on whatever team Iggy is headed to.

KIRK HINRICH

Biggest winner: John Salmons

Keep an eye on: Hinrich (he’s already useful now, and his value could rise even more if he’s moved into a starting PG role)

Biggest loser: The PG on whatever team Hinrich is headed to.

CHRIS BOSH

Biggest winner: Andrea Bargnani

Keep an eye on: Amir Johnson

Biggest loser: You got it: the big men on whatever team Bosh is headed to.  (Okay, I’ll stop mentioning the biggest loser if there’s no clear one yet.)

NATE ROBINSON

Biggest winner: Chris Duhon (he needs anything to happen to jumpstart himself) and Larry Hughes

Keep an eye on: Nate, as he might move to a situation with more playing time, but not necessarily more responsibility.

DEVIN HARRIS

Biggest winner: Keyon Dooling

Biggest loser: Probably Harris, as he’s currently The Man in New Jersey.  At least when he’s healthy.

TYRUS THOMAS

Biggest winner: Probably Thomas himself, as he can only crack about 20 mpg right now, and Taj Gibson

Keep an eye on: Brad Miller

Okay, hope that’s enough to get the juices flowing for now.  Watch out for my Western Conference edition sometime this weekend, and feel free to point out any pieces of trade bait I missed.

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

3 Comments

Week 11 Recap (Out with the “0″ and in with the Grangerous) and Week 12 Pickups

I almost pulled off a deal that would've landed me Granger to go with Durant, but then Granger came back from injury a week early.  F my life.  (Getty Images)

I almost pulled off a deal that would've landed me Granger to go with Durant, but then Granger came back from injury a week early. F my life. (Getty Images)

Week 11 featured the early end to what was turning into a triumphant return for Agent 0, the mixed bag early return of a nicknameless fantasy stud, and one of my favorite parts of fantasy basketball that can never come too early… trade winds.

Gilbert Arenas

Don’t athletes only pay tribute to their fallen teammates after they’re… uh… dead?  Well, DeShawn Stevenson felt compelled to pay tribute to Arenas before the Wizards’ home game on Sunday after the WIzards’ top brass decided to erase Arenas from their programs, marketing campaigns, and memory.  Maybe “dead” is a little strong/inappropriate, but it’s looking more and more like Arenas is dead to the Wizards.

Yet Gilbert is still owned in 72% of Yahoo leagues, which tells me most of his owners are in denial.  Feel free to stay in that lovely state, at least for another week or so, if there are no quality FA left in your league.  But if there’s a hot item, jump on it.  The fact that Arenas’ infamous Twitter account is officially dead is probably more a sign of the times than a sign of remorse.

Although Randy Foye was the obvious favorite to take over at starting PG, I really liked Mike Miller as a better pickup last week because of his efficiency.  And while I still like him (and own him in one league), he already aggravated his calf injury in just his second game back.  So, Foye is the clear guy to own now, with Nick Young playing big minutes in Miller’s absence on Sunday as well.  Young is a nice start this week, assuming the Wizards won’t rush Miller back.  And I still like Caron Butler to pull it around… if he’s still a Wizard.

Read the rest of this entry »

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

4 Comments

Fantasy Basketball Draft Rankings: 101-125

I’ve finished updating my draft rankings from 101-150.  I’ll post it in two different entries, to make it a little more readable.  Be sure to check out the complete list from 1-150 on the Draft Rankings tab, complete with one-liners.

Read the rest of this entry »

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

No Comments

Draft Strategy: Don’t hate the player, hate the team

Note: Since you can find some good links to fantasy basketball draft strategy here, I’ll try to focus on a few areas often overlooked.

Don't hate Devin Harris.  Hate the Nets.

Don't hate Devin Harris. Hate the Nets. (Marc Rasbury/Icon SMI)

Team schedule.  It might sound like the most boring part of playing fantasy basketball, but sometimes it makes a world of difference, especially in H2H leagues (note: this article is mainly intended for H2H players).  There are two crucial parts of team schedule:

a) How many times a team plays per week.

b) How many “Off-Days” a team plays.

As I was gearing up to write this, I came across a pretty great analysis of the former at Basketball Free For All via another site, FourPointPlay.  I was planning to do something similar but they’ve already done a great job analyzing the NBA schedule on a play-per-week basis.  So I’ll focus on the latter.

What exactly do I mean by Off-Days?  The days where almost every team gets a day off.  Your Thanksgivings, Christmases, and New Years, to name a few.  But there are always some teams playing on those days, and since they’re often big primetime TV days, the teams are usually the superstar-led ones, like the Cavaliers, Lakers, and Celtics.  But not always.

In H2H leagues it’s especially useful to own players on these teams (it doesn’t always have to be the superstar, mind you) because it often adds to your TOTAL GAME count for that week (assuming you don’t have a weekly cap on games).  Even if you do have a cap on games, when your best players play on these Off-Days, it frees you up to use your most efficient combination of players on the days where everyone seems to be playing.  Here’s an example:

Read the rest of this entry »

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

6 Comments

Fantasy Basketball Sleepers 2009-10

Since you all are drafting him, might as well know what he looks like (Rocky Widner/NBAE/Getty Images)

Since you all are drafting him, might as well know what Anthony Randolph looks like (Rocky Widner/NBAE/Getty Images)

I’m not a huge fan of the term “sleeper” when it comes to fantasy basketball.  How many people does it take to jump on the bandwagon before someone graduates from being a Sleeper to becoming just plain Good?  In any case, I’ll try to point out some guys who should provide value where they’re drafted (as long as you don’t reach too far for them).

First of all, a list of guys who have graduated from becoming sleepers: Derrick Rose, Brook Lopez (in fact, they both skipped the whole step of becoming a sleeper), John Salmons, J.R. Smith, Francisco Garcia, Charlie Villanueva, Spencer Hawes, you get the idea.  Now then…

VALUE SLEEPERS (GUYS YOU ALREADY KNOW)

Jameer Nelson, ORL, PG

Nelson already came back from injury, and thankfully for his fantasy owners this year, he didn’t look so hot.  That last image of a player looking a step too slow can sometimes play tricks on fantasy owners, even if an entire summer has passed.  Nelson was a top 30 guy when he was healthy last year, and ORL had enough confidence in his playmaking ability to lose both Rafer Alston and Hedo Turkoglu in the offseason (although of course VC came aboard).  Current average draft position (ADP) in Yahoo leagues: 57.  I like him in the late fourth round (of a 12-team draft).

Chris Duhon, NY, PG

Going along with the “bad taste in your mouth” idea, Duhon made it look easy after the All Star break last year, as he frankly just burned out.  But remember, he’s still the starting PG on a Mike D’Antoni team.  Unless the management in New York has no clue how to run a team (quite possible), they’ll likely monitor Duhon’s minutes more closely this year.  So while he probably won’t drop 22 AST on anyone this year, he’s certainly capable of averaging 7+ apg over an entire year.  He’s not even cracking the top 100 in ADP, but I’d take him in the ninth, maybe eighth round.

Read the rest of this entry »

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

4 Comments

Fantasy Basketball Draft Rankings: 71-80

Fantasy basketball draft rankings: 71-80

These rankings are based on a standard 9-category format, with a slight leaning towards H2H leagues, although differing strategies for roto leagues are noted when applicable.


Player Team POS Analysis
71 John Salmons CHI SG, SF I’m still kicking myself for not drafting Salmons in the seventh round of one of my leagues last year.  Chances are he won’t make it that far this year as Salmons steps into the starting SG role for the Bulls sans Ben Gordon.  Expect similar numbers as last year, except in AST unfortunately, where playing alongside Derrick Rose (instead of, uh, Beno Udrih) for an entire year will likely hurt his apg.
72 Russell Westbrook OKC PG I am looking forward to increases across the board in Westbrook’s sophomore campaign.  While his erratic FG% is worrisome (ranging from 34% to 46% month-to-month), one would think with a year under his belt he can limit those atrocious 3 for 19 outings.  Already a 15, 5, and 5 guy, look for him to approach Steve Francis numbers circa 2003 when Francis was going in rounds 3 or 4 of drafts.
73 Tyrus Thomas CHI PF A popular sleeper the last few years, Thomas finally delivered on a somewhat consistent level last year, finishing with 1.2 spg and 1.9 bpg a la a mini-Ben Wallace from yesteryear. With some added consistency, his numbers should tick up a bit across the board.
74 Rasheed Wallace BOS PF, C Although it’s unclear whether Sheed will start, at worse he’ll log super sub minutes a la Lamar Odom. Plus, the last time Sheed was traded to a contending, veteran team, he fit in quite well. Expect the usual 1/1/1 numbers.
75 J.R. Smith DEN SG, SF With Kleiza out of town, Smith will be relied on even more to score. Plus, his disastrous shooting games have slowly decreased the last couple years, a sign that George Karl is finally getting through to him. (In fact he’s shot about 45% over the last two seasons.) Given that he’s F-eligible in Yahoo leagues, hits 2+ 3′s per game, and has steadily improved his AST and STL, he’ll be a popular choice on draft day.
76 Jason Terry DAL SG Marion’s arrival won’t help the Jet’s fantasy numbers.  However, I expect Marion to more negatively impact Josh Howard, even though Howard is slated to slide into that starting SG spot.  Although his scoring will likely dip, I still expect 2+ 3′s per game, which unfortunately for us means we’ll be seeing just as much of that airplane-flying-thingy he does after every 3PM.
77 Eric Gordon LAC SG With the Clippers adding (through health or draft) multiple scoring options to the squad next year, expect Gordon’s sophomore jump to be tempered.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Baron sets him up for more 3′s, but the overall ppg might stay relatively level.  Add in the fact that he lost his F-eligibility (in Yahoo leagues) from last year, and his value takes another slight hit.
78 Anthony Randolph GS PF How much do you reach for Randolph?  The 7th round in a 12-team draft seems reasonable, but someone on the hype machine might grab him even before that.  If you do happen to land him, be prepared for inconsistency, but it should be a pretty fun ride.
79 Trevor Ariza HOU SF After being the fifth (maybe even sixth?) option on the Lakers last year, Ariza is suddenly the go-to guy on the Rockets this year.  While he should improve his numbers across the board, I have a feeling his %’s will give owners headaches all year.  With no Kobe, Pau, or Yao to free him up for open looks, things could get ugly for his FG%.
80 Spencer Hawes SAC PF, C As the starting C for the Kings last year, Hawes delivered 13 and 8 with a few assists while also tossing in 0.7/0.7/1.1 3PM/STL/BLK.  He’s slated to start at C this year and should be a nice fantasy play.

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

No Comments