Posts Tagged Jermaine O’Neal

Week 19 Recap (I don’t like mosquitoes) and Week 20 Pickups

The Week 19 Recap will be a little different this week because, amazingly, I only spent 5 minutes checking fantasy stats while vacationing in Central America, with just one mid-week check-in on my main H2H squad to make sure Gerald Wallace and Dwight Howard weren’t pummeling me too much.  (A special thanks to Andrew Bogut for making me rest easy the rest of the week.)

The final fantasy tally from my trip? About 13 fishies devoured, 2 oceans dipped in, 1 cave spelunked, 1 river rafted, 1 military coup averted, 30+ mosquito bites, 3 fire ant bites, 1 sprained ankle, 1 allergic reaction, and 1 cartoonishly swollen foot.  (Unfortunately, the last four items all occurred to the same foot.  I’d post pictures but they’re NSFW.)

And now back to reality.  Or, uh, fantasy.  After a Sunday of devouring stats and updates, here are the…

WEEK 20 PICKUPS

First of all, make sure guys like Drew Gooden (49%), Taj Gibson (42%), and George Hill (48%) aren’t taken.  You might also want to consider Richard Jefferson, who’s owned in 50+% of Yahoo leagues but might have been dropped anytime in the last several weeks.  He carried some of the offensive burden when Tony Parker exited the Spurs’ last game with a broken hand.  Carlos Delfino (46%) is another guy who might have been dropped recently who is putting things together again.

Quentin Richardson (21%)

He’s on fire, with 12 makes from downtown over his last 2 games.  It’s hard to fully endorse him because he’s been streaky his entire career, but with Jermaine O’Neal out, Q is taking more shots and could singlehandedly decide 3’s in H2H leagues.

Anthony Tolliver (17%)

I probably overhyped him the first time I mentioned him several weeks ago, but with Andris Biedrins out, Tolliver is a nice Channing Frye-ish (pre-Robin Lopez) clone.  Ronny Turiaf is also useful for blocks, although I’d rather own the guy two spots below.

Rodrigue Beaubois (14%)

Beaubois was my first pickup upon returning stateside.  He’s posted back-to-back-to-back career highs in scoring his last three games with Jason Terry out of commission.

JaVale McGee (21%)

He’s slowly rounding into the form that made him one of my “must-owns” (at least in deeper leagues) in the aftermath of the trade deadline, averaging nearly 4 bpg over his last 5.

Jonas Jerebko (18%)

Posted near-1/1/1 stats last week and is getting plenty of touches as DET continues to jostle for lottery position.

Keep an eye on:

James Harden (32% — his up-and-down rookie season was “up” last week), Jrue Holiday (11% — ditto), J.J. Hickson (17%), Matt Bonner (6% — another candidate to hoist more shots sans Tony P), Matt Barnes (20% — playing well + nice sked this week), Bill Walker (5%), Serge Ibaka (4%).

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Week 11 Recap (Out with the “0″ and in with the Grangerous) and Week 12 Pickups

I almost pulled off a deal that would've landed me Granger to go with Durant, but then Granger came back from injury a week early.  F my life.  (Getty Images)

I almost pulled off a deal that would've landed me Granger to go with Durant, but then Granger came back from injury a week early. F my life. (Getty Images)

Week 11 featured the early end to what was turning into a triumphant return for Agent 0, the mixed bag early return of a nicknameless fantasy stud, and one of my favorite parts of fantasy basketball that can never come too early… trade winds.

Gilbert Arenas

Don’t athletes only pay tribute to their fallen teammates after they’re… uh… dead?  Well, DeShawn Stevenson felt compelled to pay tribute to Arenas before the Wizards’ home game on Sunday after the WIzards’ top brass decided to erase Arenas from their programs, marketing campaigns, and memory.  Maybe “dead” is a little strong/inappropriate, but it’s looking more and more like Arenas is dead to the Wizards.

Yet Gilbert is still owned in 72% of Yahoo leagues, which tells me most of his owners are in denial.  Feel free to stay in that lovely state, at least for another week or so, if there are no quality FA left in your league.  But if there’s a hot item, jump on it.  The fact that Arenas’ infamous Twitter account is officially dead is probably more a sign of the times than a sign of remorse.

Although Randy Foye was the obvious favorite to take over at starting PG, I really liked Mike Miller as a better pickup last week because of his efficiency.  And while I still like him (and own him in one league), he already aggravated his calf injury in just his second game back.  So, Foye is the clear guy to own now, with Nick Young playing big minutes in Miller’s absence on Sunday as well.  Young is a nice start this week, assuming the Wizards won’t rush Miller back.  And I still like Caron Butler to pull it around… if he’s still a Wizard.

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Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Week 4 Recap and Week 5 Pickups

Don't call it a comeback, Brand's been here all year long.  He's just finally making some noise.  (Getty Images)

Don't call it a comeback, Brand's been here all year long. He's just finally making some noise. (Getty Images)

WEEK 4 RECAP

They’re Ba-aaack

Week 4 featured the return of several fantasy studs: Rashard Lewis, Devin Harris, Troy Murphy, and Pau Gasol.  (Thanks for playing, Ryan Andersen and Rafer Alston.  Here are some nice parting gifts…)

As for Murphy and Gasol, their fantasy impact is a little more complicated.  Murphy will definitely take away some of Roy Hibbert’s stats, but I think the young center will still be valuable contributing a near double-double with 2 bpg.  Meanwhile, if you didn’t sell high on Andrew Bynum before Gasol’s return, please don’t panic and let someone buy low on him these next few (or more?) games as he readjusts to Gasol.  19 and 11 might be a little much to expect, but he’ll be much better than 11 and 8 (his first game with Pau back).

On the flip side, Week 4 also saw some key injuries, including Jameer Nelson and Andrew Bogut.  If you’re looking for replacements, Jason Williams has had a couple decent games thus far, while Kurt Thomas/Hakim Warrick have each had a nice game (depending on the matchup) in Bogut’s absence.  (There are some more exciting pickups further below.)

They’re “Ba-aaack”

Week 4 also featured the “return” of two stud centers: Elton Brand and Al Jefferson. With Marresse Speights out of the way due to injury, Brand absolutely erupted, averaging 20 and 10 with 2.7/3.7 spg/bpg this week, good for the #2 ranking by averages in Yahoo leagues.  I’m not sure what to make of this unexpected outburst quite yet, as the 76ers lost two of those games and barely beat a new-look CHA team in the other game, but I’ll have my thoughts on whether Brand is a sell high or buy low guy shortly.

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Schmuck Bait: Buy Low Sell High, Week 1

Jason Kidd is a nice buy-low target.  His wife has nothing to do w/ this article but she's, uh, wearing a bikini.  (SI)

Jason Kidd is a nice buy-low target. His wife has nothing to do w/ this article but she, uh, looks not so bad. (SI)

A week into the season is plenty of time for people to start panicking about their teams.  It’s also a perfect time to make some sneaky trades.  And so, the first installment of Buy Low Sell High.  (I know, I know.  I’ll try to come up with a better name once my brain isn’t fried.)

As a bonus, I’ll throw in some salesman-y schmuck bait you can use with each player.

BUY LOW

Al Jefferson

He missed a good chunk of the pre-season due to a sore Achilles, and his minutes were limited the first couple games.  So, in a way, he’s still getting into basketball shape.  I know, because he’s sinking one of my teams right now.  But if the guy who owns Big Al in your league isn’t as patient, feel free to lob him an offer.

The schmuck bait: He’s one wobbly knee from imploding your entire season.  (This is actually true, but I like him to stay relatively healthy.)

Jason Kidd

Kidd hasn’t been a scorer in years, but he’s only made four shots in three games so far!  I’m not even expecting double-digit scoring from him, but if he can hit 1.X threes per game, his numbers will be pretty close to last year, when he was a top 10 player by totals.  And according to some of my readers, his owners are already getting antsy with his lack of 3’s/scoring, even though all the other numbers are there.

The schmuck bait: He’s old (i.e., fantasy finished).

Jose Calderon

A lot of people, including me, expected big things from Calderon this year after he took the summer off to improve his conditioning.  Looks like he should’ve spent more time getting acquainted with Hedo Turkoglu.  Here’s a telling stat: Calderon has already missed 4 FTs this year — more than all of last year.  To me, that would hint that this initial slow start is more mental than anything else.  It might take him a while to get used to Hedo, in which case you have time to decide whether he’s worth the “gamble”, but I’d act sooner than later.

The schmuck bait: He’s a Spaniard.  Just kidding.  He’s still unproven over an entire year as a go-to PG.

11/o6/09 UPDATE: Please see my Tough Questions post about Calderon to see exactly what I mean by “gamble”.

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Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Eye-Opening Lines (quick hits)

In the first couple weeks of the season, sometimes it’s all about being the first in line.  I’ll do this more regularly (probably every Sunday/Wednesday) during the season, but I just wanted to point out a few impressive lines these first couple days.

Danilo Gallinari

Blow-outs or not, Gallinari has put up numbers across the board in the first few games of the season.  And now that D’Antoni has named him a starter, he should be picked up.

Andray Blatche

Once Jamison comes back, Blatche’s numbers will come back down to earth.  But he’s a cheap short term rental with potential to earn bigger minutes even when Jamison returns.

Brandon Jennings

Nearly notched a triple-double in his rookie debut.  Like I said in a pre-season note about him, he’ll be inconsistent, but he has an opportunity to rack up numbers across the board.

Randy Foye

Foye went under the radar in many drafts this year, but even as a sub in the Wizards’ first two games, Foye got 30+ minutes.  In his latest game as a starter, he delivered 17 points and 8 assists.

Jermaine O’Neal

He probably went drafted in your leagues, but if not, snatch him up.  And if you already have him, he just might be at his peak trade value right now… so even though I like him this year, I’d also be willing to listen to (legit) trade offers.

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Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Eye-Opening Lines from the Season’s First Full Night of Action

Although neither of them can jump anymore, one of these O'Neals might not be fantasy-finished just quite yet...  (NBAE)

Although neither of them can jump anymore, one of these O'Neals might not be fantasy-finished just quite yet... (NBAE)

Now that we’re done with those meaningless and (potentially) misleading eye-opening lines from the pre-season, how about some eye-opening lines from games that actually count.  In addition to looking at some lines from guys that are probably already rostered, I’ll look at (perhaps more importantly) lines from guys you want to keep an eye on.

First, a word of caution: While it can make or break your season if you land one of these game-changing free agents that went undrafted, something that can also make or break your season is dropping one of your sleepers before he pans out.  So, if you’re carrying dead weight, go ahead and jump on some of these guys.  Otherwise, just keep an eye on them and be ready to pounce (like, say, during the second quarter of their third consecutive solid game — sometimes you just can’t wait until that night).

Without further ado, some eye-opening lines from the season’s first full night of action (and a few from the first night too):

STARS

Gilbert Arenas

Sure, LeBron put up back-to-back monster lines, but that wasn’t the most eye-opening performance to me.  Even though I don’t own him in any leagues, it was still great to see Gilbert Arenas pour in 29 points with 9 assists in his season debut.  It’s certainly not a guarantee of anything, but still, nice to see.

Danny Granger

While Kevin Durant posted a line worthy of a fantasy first-rounder with 25 and 11, those who stuck with their guns and drafted Danny Granger must quietly be thrilled with his 31 points on 5 threes.  Again, it’s still early, but you geniuses may as well pat yourselves on the back (especially before Granger hurts himself).

BIGS

Nobody thrived more on opening night (and a half) than the League’s big men.  Some cases in point:

Brook Lopez poured in 27 and 15 with 5 blocks, and against Al Jefferson nonetheless.

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Fantasy Basketball Draft Rankings: 101-125

I’ve finished updating my draft rankings from 101-150.  I’ll post it in two different entries, to make it a little more readable.  Be sure to check out the complete list from 1-150 on the Draft Rankings tab, complete with one-liners.

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Fantasy Basketball Draft Rankings: 31-40

Fantasy basketball draft rankings: 31-40

These rankings are based on a standard 9-category format, with a slight leaning towards H2H leagues, although differing strategies for roto leagues are noted when applicable.


Player Team POS Analysis
31 David West NO PF What West lacks in flashiness he makes up for in consistency.  He would be a great complement to a riskier early round pick, say an Al Jefferson or Amare Stoudemire.  Even if you don’t have either of those guys, drafting consistent players like West also frees you up to make calculated risks in other rounds, like a Camby or a Bynum.
32 Kevin Martin SAC SG While Martin has increased his scoring every year in the league, he’s done it at the expense of his FG%.  I’m not sure starting alongside a rookie PG will help in that respect.  But the scoring, 3’s, and amazing FT% (at a high attempt rate) are why you draft Martin anyways.
33 Brook Lopez NJ PF, C Although D-Rose and Mayo get the hype, B-Lo should be the first sophomore taken in fantasy drafts.  With VC out of town, I wouldn’t be surprised if Lopez averages 17+ PTS while shooting solid percentages and blocking 2 shots per game.  Although Duncan will go much earlier, I’d actually rather have Lopez next year.
34 Troy Murphy IND PF, C Is Murphy a one-hit wonder?  I don’t think he’ll be quite as good as last year.  (He shot 45% on 3’s.)  But there are several reasons to believe last year wasn’t a fluke.  His career 3P% is actually 39.7%, meaning if he keeps shooting about 5 3’s per game, he should still make 2.  Not bad for a C.  Also, whenever he’s gotten 30+ mpg, he’s averaged double-digit REB that season.  Despite the drafting of Hansbrough, with no Jermaine O’Neal around, Murphy should still continue to log big minutes.
35 Elton Brand PHI PF, C If C-eligible in your league, I’d consider taking him earlier, as all reports are that his shoulder and Achilles have healed.  Just be prepared for a slow start, as the Sixers no longer have a true PG and Brand will essentially be starting over.  Again.
36 Carlos Boozer UTA PF, C Like Brand, I would consider taking him earlier if he’s C-eligible in your league.  However, if you play him as a C, just prepare for his mediocre bpg accordingly.  Also, don’t be surprised if Millsap steals a few minutes from him.  All reasons why I’m choosing brandy over booze.
37 Rajon Rondo BOS PG After nearly averaging a triple-double in the playoffs last year, Rondo is on a lot of people’s “Must-Have” lists.  But while it was one of the most impressive 14-game stretches in basketball last year, he only really came close to replicating it one month during the regular season (Feb).  That being said, I would love to own Rondo (despite the lack of 3PM and low FT%), but I think someone else will overpay for him before I have the chance.  Oh well.
38 Vince Carter ORL SG, SF You’re probably wondering why I have VC ranked so low.  I’ll be the first to admit, I always underrate him.  Every year.  And he always proves me wrong.  Maybe he burned me once when he was still Air Canada.  Maybe I should be telling my psychiatrist this instead of all of you.  On the positive side, there are few better sources of AST from the F position than Carter.  And a motivated VC (as he should be with a championship contender) could be a scary VC.
39 Gilbert Arenas WAS PG It comes down to this: Who is a sure bet you would not be embarrassed to draft even if Agent 0 explodes?  If there are none left, scoop Arenas up.  Since Arenas is a risk, if I land him I probably won’t draft similarly risky players early in the draft, such as Baron, Brand, or Camby, although I will take risks later.  (ADDENDUM: Looks like people are gambling on Gil as early as the low-30’s, so if you crave the Hibachi, adjust your draft order accordingly.  Just please don’t pay too much.)
40 Baron Davis LAC PG Like Josh Smith and Gerald Wallace, Davis is a perennial injury risk.  However, the Clippers have assembled a nice pool of talent, and, playing in his hometown, you have to think Baron has something to prove after last year’s debacle.  You can probably get him in the fourth round (just be sure to draft some depth at PG).  Although the DNPs will pop up, I like the Clippers to contend for a playoff spot this year (yes, I actually said that), which means Baron should be playing/trying deep into the fantasy playoffs…

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