Posts Tagged Jameer Nelson

Week 9 Recap (All Carl Landry wants for Christmas is his 2-pt buckets) and Week 10 Pickups

Elbows to his face aren't the only high-percentage shots Carl Landry is taking lately.  (Getty Images)

Elbows to his face aren't the only high-percentage shots Carl Landry is taking lately. (Getty Images)

Week 9 featured the return of some quality fantasy backups, the emergence and re-emergence of some efficiency experts, and the re-emergence of an inefficiency expert.

Tyrus Thomas, Leandro Barbosa, and Jameer Nelson

All three guys returned this week, and I’m pretty psyched to have all three on one of my squads (Thomas and Barbosa as of two weeks ago).  Thomas made the biggest noise with a 21 and 9 performance vs. the Hornets Saturday night, while Barbosa had a couple solid games and Nelson was a little up-and-down.  Needless to say, all three should be taken in most formats.

Zach Randolph and Carl Landry

Meanwhile, two guys who started off the season with fairly pedestrian numbers have really stepped their games up over the last several weeks.  Don’t look now, but Z-Bo is averaging 23 and 14 in the month of December on 51% shooting from the field and a ridiculous 92% from the stripe.  Meanwhile, Carl “All I want for Christmas is my two front teeth” Landry has averaged 17.6 and 5.6 on a whopping 63% from the field and 86% from the stripe (and with a nice 7 attempts per game).

They’re also both relatively cheap trade targets, for different reasons.  Landry, because he’s still relatively unknown, and Randolph, because he’s traditionally known as only a “points and rebounds” guy, which is still mostly true (he’s also at 1.1 spg over the last month), but his efficiency has translated into a #28 ranking by Yahoo averages over the last month.  (Landry is #44.)  Both will likely drop off  some, but if you’re going to target either, you can probably get Landry at a much better value, although you might want to wait for him to stop having 20-point games before making an offer.

(And speaking of efficiency, I also wanted to note another potentially “cheap” guy.  Raymond Felton is ranked a ridiculous #14 over the last month, shooting 53% from the field and 90% from the line.  Again, he likely can’t keep that up, but he looks to have turned a corner with his improved shot selection.)

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Week 8 Recap (T-Mac plays “7 Minutes in Heaven”) and Week 9 Pickups

7 minutes in heaven?  Seventh graders are getting more play than T-Mac is right now...  (Getty Images)

7 minutes in heaven? Seventh graders are getting more play than T-Mac is right now... (Getty Images)

In Week 8, some of the most important fantasy happenings occurred off the court, with several fantasy stars on the verge of returning to the court.  It also featured Superman returning to form, T-Mac getting “out-played” by seventh graders, and a possible new contender in the fantasy ROY race.

Lou Williams, Jameer Nelson, and Tyrus Thomas (and Marreese Speights)

Hopefully you heard some of my barking (as well as some of the guys on my message boards) and were quick enough to pick up Williams, Nelson, or Thomas over the past week.  Williams actually already returned to action with a subpar outing versus the Clippers, but with Allen Iverson out at least a week due to arthritis, Sweet Lou will have plenty of time to get back into form… and before we know it, Iverson will be the one adjusting to him instead of the other way around.

Meanwhile, Nelson is expected to return early in Week 9, while Thomas will likely return at the end of the week.  And another guy who returned to the lineup after an extended absence and has already turned in 3 solid (including one great) game is Marreese Speights.  With both Elton Brand and Samuel Dalembert healthy and playing decently, I’m not expecting too much consistency from Speights.  But if you need help at C, he’s definitely worth a look, and he’s only taken in 30% of Yahoo leagues right now.

By the way, if you missed out on any of the above guys, the next (mini) wave of injured guys returning includes Leandro Barbosa (expected to return around mid-to-late week) and in deeper leagues, Yi Jianlian (expected back mid-week).

Dwight Howard

Meanwhile, Superman returned to form, averaging 17 and 18 with 4.5 bpg in 4 games.  It’s no coincidence this Superman-esque stretch occurred after a Dec. 11 game at Phoenix in which the Suns went Hack-a-Howard and allowed D-12 to only get off 1 (yes ONE) field goal attempt.  I unsuccessfully tried to buy low on Howard all year in one H2H league where I already own Rajon Rondo and Andrew Bogut (FT% punt, anyone?), and that window has probably slammed shut for good now.  Oh well.

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20-Second Timeout: Lou Williams and Chauncey Billups

Lou Williams

According to Kate Fagan of the Philly Inquirer, Lou Williams could be back at practice as soon as today.  Coupled with the news of Allen Iverson needing an MRI for his achy knee, Lou’s fantasy prospects suddenly look a lot brighter.  If you can afford to hold him for what could be anything from 1-2 weeks of DNPs, I’d grab him off waivers.  I just did in one of my leagues.

With Jameer Nelson and Mike Miller also on the verge of returning, all three are probably worth stashing depending on your needs/the size of your league.  If you need STL, go with Lou.  If you want more classic PG stats, go with Jameer.  And if you’re looking for across-the-board production (and a sneaky source of AST from the SF spot), go with Miller.  I value them roughly in that order as well, with Williams and Nelson neck-and-neck because of the AI factor.

Chauncey Billups

The other half of AI’s last trade is also awaiting MRI results.  While Billups’ groin injury isn’t thought to be serious, you can bet the Nuggets will be cautious with their aging vet.  Ty Lawson is worth a short-term pickup, and everyone else (especially J.R. Smith) should enjoy a few more shot attempts.

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Week 7 Recap (Raymond Felton is a model of efficiency) and Week 8 Pickups

In Week 7, Rip Hamilton and Michael Redd returned from injury.  Allen Iverson returned from the grave.  Several fast-starters hit a wall.  Raymond Felton did his best Chris Paul impersonation.  And in the biggest news of all, Danny Granger did his best, well, Danny Granger impersonation.  (And Jose Calderon might have done his Jose Calderon impersonation as well.)

Is Raymond Felton turning into a crafty veteran?  Because here he sure looks like that old dude at the Y who somehow uses his elbows when he shoots.  (Getty Images)

Is Raymond Felton turning into a crafty veteran? Because here he sure looks like that old dude at the Y who somehow uses his off-elbow when he shoots. (Getty Images)

Danny Granger

I already posted an immediate reaction to Granger’s injury, and a lot of it holds true.  As a lot of you agreed, Mike Dunleavy is the guy to own, especially after a monster performance against the Wizards Friday.  Roy Hibbert indeed shifted into the starting lineup and has taken about 12 shots per game since DG went down, but he only hit those shots in one game where he went off for 20 and 9 (on his birthday).  Once those shots start falling, he’ll be a very useful fantasy C over the next month.  I’d expect somewhere in the neighborhood of 14 and 8 with 1.5 bpg.  And last but not least, Tyler Hansbrough has had three very solid performances, averaging about 18 and 7 with 1.7 spg.

Raymond Felton

It’s already almost been a month since Stephen Jackson was traded to Charlotte, and there are some clear patterns emerging.  First of all, I decided to play my “wild card” guess on Gerald Wallace, predicting that Jackson’s arrival would spark him, so I’ll pat myself on the back for that.  I also took an educated guess that Raymond Felton’s AST would go down, which was also true (barely), but I didn’t expect his value to skyrocket to the tune of a #57 ranking over the last month (Yahoo averages).


FG% FT% 3PM PTS REB AST STL BLK TO
Raymond Felton .482 .769 0.9 11.9 3.2 5.1 2.2 0.1 1.6

There’s a few things working in Felton’s favor here.  First of all, he’s enjoying what might be his most efficient stretch in his career, shooting 48% from the field (career 40%) with only 1.6 TO per game (career 2.7) over the last month.  A lot of that has to do with taking less shots because of Jackson, and also more efficient shots playing alongside another playmaker for once.  Over the last week in particular, he’s shooting 60% from the field with 3.7 spg, which probably qualifies him as a sell high candidate… Read the rest of this entry »

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Week 6 Recap (Starring Kevin Love as Troy Murphy) and Week 7 Pickups

I'm so sad I can't even make fun of Oden's 58-yr-old face.  Oops I did it again.  (Getty Images)

I'm so sad I can't even make fun of Oden's 58-yr-old face. Oops I did it again. (Getty Images)

Week 6 featured the return of Chris Paul and Troy Murphy Kevin Love, although the “return” on everyone’s minds doesn’t come until tomorrow night in Philadelphia.  It also featured the fall of one of my favorite sleepers on the year.  Greg “Sigh” Oden.

Chris Paul

In case anyone forgot, Paul returned to the lineup earlier than expected to remind everyone why he’s the most valuable player in fantasy with a near triple-double (the CP3 way): 16 pts, 15 ast, and 8 stl.

Some other immediate ramifications: Peja Stojakovic’s shot attempts sunk to 10 after enjoying about 13 per game during Paul’s absence (although in Peja’s defense he was returning from a minor injury).  Emeka Okafor saw an immediate boost in productivity, and I expect David West to follow shortly, in case you were looking to BUY LOW on either.  And Devin Brown (2% owned in Yahoo leagues) is emerging as a fantasy-viable player as the starting SG, totaling 11 treys in Paul’s last 4 (complete) healthy games.

Kevin Love (and Al Jefferson)

Love did his best impersonation of Troy Murphy in his first two games of action, averaging 14.5 pts and 10.5 reb to go with 2.0 3pg.  The 3’s were a pleasant surprise and after hitting only 2 all of last year, it looks like he’ll take at least 1 or 2 attempts per game this year.

Meanwhile, Al Jefferson enjoyed his two best rebounding games in a while, totaling 25 in Love’s first two games back.  It might seem a little counter-intuitive, but I like this trend to continue, even when Love is inserted into the starting lineup.  As I mentioned back when Love got injured, Jefferson doesn’t have to shoulder the entire rebounding load anymore, as the other team will actually have to box out another legitimate rebounder now.  The other contributing factor?  Jefferson has looked lackadaisical at times this year, but not the last two games.  Energy is contagious around Love, and even though the Wolves won’t be fighting for a playoff spot anytime soon, I like Jefferson to play with a little more fire now that their squad has a legit chance to win every most some nights.

If you can convince Big Al’s owner that Love will actually eat into his stats, he could still be a nice BUY LOW option if you can get him at a reasonable price. Read the rest of this entry »

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20-Second Timeout: Jameer Nelson and Tracy McGrady

Wouldn't you be bored if you had to sit next to Stan Van Gundy all the time?  (Getty Images)

Wouldn't you be bored if you had to sit next to Stan Van Gundy all the time? (Getty Images)

Jameer Nelson

It’s been about 2 weeks since Nelson’s surgery on his left knee.  The original timeframe for his return was 4-6 weeks, so that puts him at 2-4 weeks away.  If he’s available in your league (33% of Yahoo leagues), I’d pick him up sooner rather than later.  If you want to trade for him on the relatively cheap, that window is quickly closing.  Jason Williams has established himself in ORL’s rotation, but I still like Nelson to approach top 50 numbers (by averages) with his efficiency.

There’s no real “newsy” news on his status, besides that the original timeframe still applies as of two days ago.  But if you want to read into anything (like I love to do), here’s a quote from last week in the Orlando Sentinel:

“Some teammates have been forecasting a quicker return for Nelson then the original four-to-six week prognosis.

“When asked about how far he was from a come back, Nelson said, coyly, ‘Weeks. Four to six. That’s what I say. I don’t know.’”

Yes, I know, it’s that same 4-6 week timeframe.  But he said it coyly!  Coyly!!!  Anyways.

Tracy McGrady

Is T-Mac the new AI?  (Getty Images)

Is T-Mac the new AI? (Getty Images)

McGrady’s situation is a lot less clear than Nelson’s.  In fact, the clearest report that I’ve read of his potential return is still (admittedly) pretty murky itself.  From yesterday’s Houston Chronicle:

“Rockets coach Rick Adelman said again on Wednesday that there is “no timetable” for McGrady’s return. There is, he said, one criterion to meet for McGrady to make his season debut. McGrady, Adelman said, must be ready in Adelman’s estimation to help the Rockets win.

“As uncomplicated as that seems, however, the decision seems more about basketball than health considerations…”

In other words, it seems like the Rockets are treating McGrady much like a lot of teams were treating Allen Iverson the past couple weeks.  Sure, he still has skills… but is he going to totally disrupt that Houston offense??  The Rockets are surprising everyone — including me, a native Houstonian — this year.  (Although if you think about it, it shouldn’t be too surprising given the Rocket’s performance sans Yao Ming and T-Mac in the playoffs last year.)  If the Rockets were struggling, you’d have to think they might be in a bigger hurry to bring T-Mac back.

Another factor at play here is T-Mac’s trade value.  I haven’t heard any rumors in recent months, but last year a T-Mac for Chancey Billups deal was rumored before Billups was dealt for AI.  T-Mac’s value as a player has declined since then, but he still has that huge expiring contract — and just in time for the FA class of 2010.  Maybe the Rockets are being cautious because they want to be as certain as possible that T-Mac won’t hurt himself and hurt his trade value any more?

Fantasy-wise, it’s a headache that I personally don’t want to deal with.  Even though I wouldn’t be surprised if T-Mac has some monster games this year, I also wouldn’t be surprised by some unexpected DNP’s.  The main reason I’d take a flyer on him is if I thought I could flip him in a trade after a hot streak.  But that’s easier said than done after T-Mac’s injury-riddled last couple years.  (He’s available in 41% of Yahoo leagues.)

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Fantasy Fallout: It’s Always Allen Iverson in Philadelphia

Good times!  I only have one question.  Which one's AI and which one's AI2 now?  (NBA Media Ventures)

Good times! I only have one question. Which one's AI and which one's AI2 now? (NBA Media Ventures)

It’s official.  After a close call with the Knicks, followed by hours and hours of meetings with Philly’s top brass, Allen Iverson is un-retiring and returning to the 76ers.  According to Philadelphia’s own Stephen A. Smith, Iverson will step into the starting PG spot when he plays his first game Monday and is worth a roster spot in almost all fantasy formats.  (By the way, despite the content of my last several posts, this is not a 76ers fan blog.  It’s just the result of what I like to call Fantasy Dominos, starting with that broken jaw…)

But what exactly can we expect from AI?  And how will AI’s return affect Lou Williams, Andre Iguodala, and the other 76ers?  Well, allow me to answer my two questions with two more questions:

a) What will be AI’s new role on his old team?

b) What will be AI’s role once Williams returns?

From Stephen A.’s article:

“Team sources confirmed on Friday that Iverson would be a starter because Jordan had planned on starting Williams with rookie Jrue Holiday anyway, just to put some excitement and more ball-handlers into his Princeton-style offense.  So even once Williams returns from injury, he’d be in the starting lineup with Iverson.”

Oh.  Well that’s convenient.  As long as he stays healthy, Iverson is slated to start.  Does that mean an automatic return to AI’s numbers circa 2006, the last time he was in Philly?  Of course not.  Although the core of the roster is familiar, this is clearly Andre Iguodala and Lou Williams’ team now.  Or for the next 8 weeks, Iguodala’s team.  I can almost imagine the conversations between Iverson, Iverson’s agent, 76ers GM/President Ed Stefanski (since Dec 07), and head coach Eddie Jordan (since May 09) over the last few days in Dallas:

ED STEFANKSI

It’s an honor to meet you, Allen.  We’re all huge fans.

ALLEN IVERSON

You’re too kind.  But please, call me AI.

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Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Week 4 Recap and Week 5 Pickups

Don't call it a comeback, Brand's been here all year long.  He's just finally making some noise.  (Getty Images)

Don't call it a comeback, Brand's been here all year long. He's just finally making some noise. (Getty Images)

WEEK 4 RECAP

They’re Ba-aaack

Week 4 featured the return of several fantasy studs: Rashard Lewis, Devin Harris, Troy Murphy, and Pau Gasol.  (Thanks for playing, Ryan Andersen and Rafer Alston.  Here are some nice parting gifts…)

As for Murphy and Gasol, their fantasy impact is a little more complicated.  Murphy will definitely take away some of Roy Hibbert’s stats, but I think the young center will still be valuable contributing a near double-double with 2 bpg.  Meanwhile, if you didn’t sell high on Andrew Bynum before Gasol’s return, please don’t panic and let someone buy low on him these next few (or more?) games as he readjusts to Gasol.  19 and 11 might be a little much to expect, but he’ll be much better than 11 and 8 (his first game with Pau back).

On the flip side, Week 4 also saw some key injuries, including Jameer Nelson and Andrew Bogut.  If you’re looking for replacements, Jason Williams has had a couple decent games thus far, while Kurt Thomas/Hakim Warrick have each had a nice game (depending on the matchup) in Bogut’s absence.  (There are some more exciting pickups further below.)

They’re “Ba-aaack”

Week 4 also featured the “return” of two stud centers: Elton Brand and Al Jefferson. With Marresse Speights out of the way due to injury, Brand absolutely erupted, averaging 20 and 10 with 2.7/3.7 spg/bpg this week, good for the #2 ranking by averages in Yahoo leagues.  I’m not sure what to make of this unexpected outburst quite yet, as the 76ers lost two of those games and barely beat a new-look CHA team in the other game, but I’ll have my thoughts on whether Brand is a sell high or buy low guy shortly.

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20-Second Timeout: Brandon Jennings + Andrew Bogut = BROGUT!

Wow.  In case you missed the biggest stat line from Saturday night, the first half of Brogut (thanks for the ingenious name, Brew Hoop) Brandon Jennings dropped 55 points on 21-34 shooting against the Warriors.  (Yes, I know GSW is in shambles right now but the stats still count!)  Oh, and he also added 7 threes, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists.

It’s been about two weeks since I wrote about Michael Redd’s injury and mentioned that Jennings might be at a sell high point in, you got it, two weeks.  Here’s the thing though — how do you trade away a guy after he drops 55 points in his seventh NBA game???

Well, it depends on what you can get in return.  I would be intrigued by a Jennings for Jose Calderon or Jason Kidd deal, for instance.  Less intrigued by a Jennings for Derrick Rose deal.  One of my readers just dealt Jennings for Russell Westbrook (talk about moving quickly!), but in my opinion that actually seems like more of a needs-based deal than a sell high deal (Westrbook’s REB/AST/STL for Jennings’ 3PM/TO/maybe FG).  If you’re going to deal Jennings in the immediate future, I would definitely aim higher, if only for the fact he’s currently getting mentioned alongside Wilt Chamberlain and Elgin Baylor on ESPN right now.

So, what value should you be targeting (if you’re even looking to move him at all)?  Well, after his third (or fourth?) coming out party last night, Jennings is ranked #17 in Yahoo leagues by averages.  He’s quickly turning into this year’s D-Rose, except he actually hits 3’s.  Once Michael Redd returns, his scoring will likely drop, but his assists should creep back up.  If he can manage 18, 4, and 6 with decent percentages and 1+ 3pm/stl, that looks like a top 50 finish to me.  (He was at 20+, 4, and 5 before last night.)  That being said, you should probably still move him for more consistent veterans like Jameer Nelson and Mo Williams, although I wouldn’t blame you if you want to enjoy the ride.

Meanwhile, Andrew Bogut, added 19 and 11 on 9-12 shooting (although his FT shooting returned to its old ways after a couple perfect games from the stripe).  Again, after a slow start, it looks like Bogut is primed for a nice bounce back year… although he’s mainly getting mentioned here because he’s the other half of Brogut!

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Draft Strategy: Gilbert vs. The World

"Aflac!"  Gilbert Gottfried, all de time (Scott Gries/Getty Images)

"Aflac!" -Gilbert Gottfried, all de time (Scott Gries/Getty Images)

"When I had fun, I got criticized. So we’ll see what happens when I’m serious.” Gilbert Arenas, September 2009 (AP/Haraz Ghanbari)

"When I had fun, I got criticized. So we’ll see what happens when I’m serious.” -Gilbert Arenas, Sept 2009 (AP/Haraz Ghanbari)

It just might be the single-most important decision affecting fantasy leagues this season.  And the answer’s right here: I’m drafting Gilbert Gottfried in the third round of my Fantasy Jewish Comedians League.  Think about it.  He’s basically the Jason Kidd of Jewish comedians, consistently delivering across multiple platforms: television, film, even video games.

“Thanks for wasting my time, buddy.  But where the hell do I draft Gilbert Arenas?”  I’m glad you asked.  I’m also glad Erik over at Points in the Paint already answered this question, because it makes my life a whole lot easier.

So what’s the point of this article?  First, I’m going to touch on one great point Erik makes that I also alluded to in my Draft Rankings, as well as pose two important questions you should ask yourself on draft day.  And I’ll throw in a case study… FOR FREE!  (By the way, you’ll see I have Gilbert ranked #39.  I’ll explain why I have him down there, but you’ll probably have to draft him much earlier if you want him.)  Second, I’m going to touch on “The World” part of Gilbert vs. The World.  Namely, how does Agent 0’s return affect two other fantasy studs: Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison?

THE GILBERT PART

Okay.  This is it.  The third round’s about to begin.  Gilbert’s still on the board.  What do you do?  For me, it comes down to two (okay, three) questions:

a) Who else is on the draft board?

b) Who else is on my team?  (And who else do I want on my team later?)

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