Darren Collison, it's time to shake up some fantasy basketball leagues. (Getty Images)

WEEK 14 RECAP

• Mike Miller exploded for 25, 9, and 8 including 7-10 from downtown against the Knicks on Saturday.  When news of Gilbert Arenas’ legal woes first broke, I thought Miller would give Randy Foye a run for his money in terms of being the most valuable pickup.  It’s just one game (and chances are the Knicks won’t play zone against WAS when they meet again this week), but at the very least make sure Miller isn’t a FA in your league.

• Attention, Tyreke Evans and Brandon Jennings: Stephen Curry is running away with the fantasy ROY race.

• The Detroit backcourt is slowly getting healthy… putting a dent in the fantasy values of every member of that team, as there are only so many minutes to go around.

• Channing Frye might be better as a sixth man, as he’s become a much more efficient player.  Lou Williams: better as a sixth man?  Not so much.  (Although Lou posted a nice line Sunday, it seems whenever Jrue Holiday or Willie Green are playing well, Lou is the odd man out.)  Both are worth holding, especially Frye, as the Suns and 76ers figure to make deals before the trade deadline.  (I dropped Lou for Paul Millsap in one league though.)  And if Amare Stoudemire gets shipped out of Phoenix, Frye could very well end up back in the starting lineup starting alongside Robin Lopez.

• Andrew Bynum is learning to coexist with Pau Gasol.

• And after nearly getting suspended earlier in the week, J.R. Smith had his best week of the year, averaging 17 ppg, 3.3 threes and 2.3 spg in Carmelo Anthony’s absence.  Meanwhile, Kenyon Martin continues to dominate the boards, hurting Nene Hilario’s value.  I expect that to even out (some) in the long term though, and since KMart is a perennial injury risk, I would sell high.  (Nene could be a sneaky buy low as well, as nagging injuries have slowed him down some lately.)

WEEK 15 PICKUPS

In New Orleans, everyone's saying "Who Dat?" lately. Why, it's Darren Collison again. Pick him up. (Getty Images)

Darren Collison (15%)

At the time I’m writing this, Collison has already jumped up from being owned in 2% of Yahoo leagues to start the week to 15% and rising.  He filled in admirably for Paul on Saturday night and could deliver some teams to fantasy victory in the coming months.

Marcus Thornton (25%)

Likewise, Thornton should benefit from Paul’s absence.  I was already going to include him on this list as he was recently inserted into the starting lineup, but now his playing time/value increases even more.  In 4 games as a starter (one without CP3), Thornton is averaging 18 ppg and 2.3 treys.

Goerge Hill (23%)

Continuing with the point/combo-guard theme, Hill is a great add with Tony Parker out in the short term.  And, like Thornton above, Hill had recently been inserted into the starting lineup anyway, where he was already being productive.  I give a slight nod to Thornton in preference, but only because the Hornets will need him to step up without CP3 the next 1-2 months, whereas Parker’s injury isn’t as serious.

Brandon Rush (39%)

One of my preseason sleepers, Rush is quietly averaging 13.6 ppg and 5 rpg to go with 2.1/0.6/1.0 threes/stl/blk per game over the last two weeks.  Like I mentioned last week, Danny Granger’s return has really sparked him.

Robin Lopez (40%)

There’s no reason Lopez should be owned in less than half of Yahoo leagues (unless all his owners are dropping him for Collison).  If Amare Stoudemire does in fact get traded, Lopez should get all the minutes he can handle, with Steve Nash spoon-feeding him buckets.  He had a mediocre week last week, but he’s still worth a calculated gamble in my book.

Jared Jeffries (5%)

If you need defensive help in deeper leagues, Jeffries has averaged 1.3 spg and bpg over the last two months.

Keep an eye on: Keyon Dooling (2% — check Devin Harris’ status), Brad Miller (41% — resurrected his season this past week), Kris Humprhies (7%), Chase Budinger (3% — second guy off the bench with Kyle Lowry out), Goran Dragic (16%)

And before I go…

Corey Brewer (54%)

He’s made my “Keep an eye on” list the last several weeks, and Brewer has finally cleared the 50% hurdle with another stellar 3-pt shooting week.  Add in the fact that MIN only has 2 games this week, and you’re probably wondering why I’m including him here though.  Well, I just needed an excuse to post this video.  (Apologies, Derek Fisher.)

According to Kate Fagan of the Philly Inquirer, Lou Williams could be back at practice as soon as today.  Coupled with the news of Allen Iverson needing an MRI for his achy knee, Lou’s fantasy prospects suddenly look a lot brighter.  If you can afford to hold him for what could be anything from 1-2 weeks of DNPs, I’d grab him off waivers.  I just did in one of my leagues.

With Jameer Nelson and Mike Miller also on the verge of returning, all three are probably worth stashing depending on your needs/the size of your league.  If you need STL, go with Lou.  If you want more classic PG stats, go with Jameer.  And if you’re looking for across-the-board production (and a sneaky source of AST from the SF spot), go with Miller.  I value them roughly in that order as well, with Williams and Nelson neck-and-neck because of the AI factor.

Chauncey Billups

The other half of AI’s last trade is also awaiting MRI results.  While Billups’ groin injury isn’t thought to be serious, you can bet the Nuggets will be cautious with their aging vet.  Ty Lawson is worth a short-term pickup, and everyone else (especially J.R. Smith) should enjoy a few more shot attempts.

When your teammates would rather have Corey Maggette than you, that's a bad sign. (AP)

For my more regular readers… don’t panic.  Stephen Jackson isn’t injured.  I’m changing the name of my injury updates/fallouts to what they should have been called in the first place, Injury Timeouts.  (Duh.)  20-Second Timeouts will be quick in-depth analyses from interesting news items around the Association.

Stephen Jackson

Even though he won Golden State of Mind’s “Warrior Wonder” award for his 10 point, 15 assist double-double last night (yes, it was against MIN but it still counts!), Yahoo Sports is reporting that the Warriors are anxious to part ways with S-Jax and have as many as ten suitors.  Nothing’s certain, but at this point I’d be more surprised if he ends the year as a Warrior than if he doesn’t.

What would it mean for his fantasy value?

If you drafted Jackson, like I did in one league (one of those “he’s too talented to be drafted this late” situations), you had to expect this after Jackson’s off-season griping.  His future fantasy value depends on where he’s traded, but his value will likely decline based on assists alone.  He wants to be traded to a contender, and there are few contenders I can think of who will let Jackson handle the ball as much as he did in The City.  However, I expect his other numbers to stay relatively level, but it all depends.  If you’re at all worried about his value nosediving, try to trade him now.  I’m listening to offers but not panicking.

What would it mean for the other Warriors’ value?

Again, this depends on where Jackson is headed to, or rather, what pieces are coming back to Golden State.  The Warriors are reportedly coveting a big man, so guys like Kelenna Azubuike and Anthony Morrow should be picked up and stashed.  They’re already valuable in deeper leagues, and if Jackson gets traded, they’ll be among this year’s waiver wire steals.  Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry should also see some bumps in production, particularly assists, as they would need to handle the ball more with Jackson gone.

Anthony Randolph

Since we’re on the Warriors, last night Anthony Randolph had the kind of performance his fantasy owners were expecting on a nightly basis with 23 and 7 with 3 stl/blk.  There are a couple things working in his favor, but also a couple things working against him.

The good: Andris Biedrins is out another two weeks, and Golden State fans are getting restless.  Usually the latter doesn’t have much bearing on fantasy basketball, but who knows with Don Nelson at the helm.  Maybe he’ll take a few weeks off and let some guy sitting courtside coach a game or two.

The bad: Before Biedrins’ injury, Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News wasn’t too optimistic about Randolph’s expected minutes over the next month.  When Biedrins comes back, even if Randolph is putting up sick stats, his minutes will still be unpredictable under Nellie.  Plus, if the Warriors add a big man in return for Jackson, Randolph’s playing time takes another potential hit.

So what?

If you own Randolph and were thinking about dropping him as late as Monday morning, you got a little break with Biedrins’ injury.  There are two things you can do:

How soon before the "My Name Is Earl" jokes make Smith go back to J.R.?

a) After Randolph puts up big numbers these next couple weeks, hope he earns  his way back into Nellie’s rotation for the rest of the year.

b) After Randolph puts up big numbers these next couple weeks, trade him at what might be his peak trade value of the season.

Earl Smith III

If Earl Smith III is available in your league, pick him up immediately.  Okay, he probably isn’t even listed yet.  That’s because J.R. Smith has decided to go by his birth name, Earl Smith III, starting tonight, when he returns against Chicago.

Don't hate Devin Harris. Hate the Nets. (Marc Rasbury/Icon SMI)

Team schedule.  It might sound like the most boring part of playing fantasy basketball, but sometimes it makes a world of difference, especially in H2H leagues (note: this article is mainly intended for H2H players).  There are two crucial parts of team schedule:

a) How many times a team plays per week.

b) How many “Off-Days” a team plays.

As I was gearing up to write this, I came across a pretty great analysis of the former at Basketball Free For All via another site, FourPointPlay.  I was planning to do something similar but they’ve already done a great job analyzing the NBA schedule on a play-per-week basis.  So I’ll focus on the latter.

What exactly do I mean by Off-Days?  The days where almost every team gets a day off.  Your Thanksgivings, Christmases, and New Years, to name a few.  But there are always some teams playing on those days, and since they’re often big primetime TV days, the teams are usually the superstar-led ones, like the Cavaliers, Lakers, and Celtics.  But not always.

In H2H leagues it’s especially useful to own players on these teams (it doesn’t always have to be the superstar, mind you) because it often adds to your TOTAL GAME count for that week (assuming you don’t have a weekly cap on games).  Even if you do have a cap on games, when your best players play on these Off-Days, it frees you up to use your most efficient combination of players on the days where everyone seems to be playing.  Here’s an example:

Let’s say you’re in a H2H league with daily changes where you start 6 players each night: G, G, F, F, C, Util.  It’s the weekend and you’re in a tight race.  You have 8 players playing Saturday, but Sunday is one of these Off-Days and you only have one guy playing.  Meanwhile, your opponent has 6 players playing Sat, and 3 on Sun.  Even if you add-drop to get a couple players on Sun, the quality of your added players (both FA) will probably be subpar compared to your opponents’ regular starters.  (Plus, your opponent could always add-drop as well.)  Another way to look at it: You might have to sit your third-string G on Sat, someone like an Eric Gordon, while you start a FA like Jordan Farmar on Sun.  And of course, your opponent has Kobe going Sun, while he was able to start someone comparable to Gordon on Sat.

Sure, it’s a tidy scenario to help me make my point, but it’ll happen at least once or twice a year, and that could decide whether you make the fantasy playoffs or not.  And when it happens during the fantasy playoffs, it could decide whether or not you just wasted the previous 6 months of your life.

“That’s great, but how does it help me on draft day?”  Good question.  That’s why I’ve made a table highlighting the Off-Days schedule for every team in the league:

How to read the chart:

“4G” indicates an Off-Day where there are only 4 games on the schedule.  Boston has a “1″ under 4G from “Oct to Dec”, meaning the Celtics play on only one of those days in that time span.  However, they also play on 2 days where there only 3 games on the schedule from Oct to Dec.  From Jan to Mar 21 (the last day of the fantasy regular season in most H2H formats), Boston plays on 6 total Off-Days, including 3 days where there are only 2 games going on.  For the entire fantasy regular season, Boston plays on 9 total Off-Days.  During the fantasy playoffs, they play on 1 Off-Day during championship week.  Get it?

Some interesting observations:

• If you draft star players from Chicago or Denver, you’re going to be the guy laughing all the way to the bank on Sunday.  Not only do they play on several Off-Days during the regular season, but also during the fantasy playoffs (especially championship week).  You’re going to feel mighty good about yourself starting D-Rose, John Salmons, Carmelo, and Nene on these days while your opponents are scrambling for their FA backups — Renaldo Balkman, Anthony Carter, Aaron Gray, and whichever D-Leaguers make things interesting this year.

• Meanwhile, while you would still love to own guys like Devin Harris and Brook Lopez, their value takes a slight hit in H2H leagues because of the Nets’ hideous Off-Day schedule.  In fact, they don’t play on any days with 4 or less games on the schedule.  Zero.  So if you pick up sleepers like Courtney Lee or Yi Jianlian (one of my targeted sleepers in roto leagues), you might not be able to start them too often, as they mainly play on days where everyone else is playing too.  In fact, with all those blanks, NJ was kind enough to allow me to plug myself on my chart…

• 

  The New Orlean Hornets: Fantasy basketball schedule FAIL. (Getty Images)

  This Off-Day schedule should help in making some difficult first-round decisions in particular.  While the fantasy gods have tried to level the playing field in the fantasy playoffs by giving both LeBron’s Cavs and CP3′s Hornets only 11 games (as opposed to 14 for HOU, MIL, OKC, SA, TOR, WAS), LeBron has the clearly favorable Off-Day schedule during the regular season.  In fact of the 14 days on the NBA calendar with only 2 games in action, the Cavs play on 8 of those days.  8 out of 14.  Meanwhile, there are 11 other teams that don’t play on any of those days.  (The Hornets play on 1.)  Although CP3 is statistically the most valuable player in the league, that’s enough for me to take LeBron H2H.  Although I’m sticking with CP3 in roto.

• Other first round decisions: The Lakers have a great regular season schedule as usual and a pretty good fantasy playoff.  That’s enough for me to pull the trigger on Kobe over Granger in the first round, even though I expect Granger to have the better fantasy year by averages.  However, I still like Kevin Durant over Kobe, not only because he’s a fantasy stud, but also because the Thunder have a sneaky good fantasy playoff schedule despite a mediocre regular season schedule.  (Now there’s just the matter of making the playoffs…)

• One other interesting note: Houston has traditionally enjoyed playing on several Off-Days in recent years.  But with Yao and T-Mac out, someone at the NBA scheduling office noticed.  They only play on 3 such days this year.

Beyond draft day, the Off-Days schedule should also help in targeting players for trades.  When used with the overall NBA schedule analyzer from Basketball Free For All, you can pinpoint the teams that play most often and on the most Off-Days to finish out the year.

Disclaimer:

I’m not saying you should load your team up with Bulls, Nuggets, and Spurs if you’re not getting great value for the round that you take them.  (You probably also shouldn’t have more than two players from any team for general scheduling purposes.)  However, when you’re making difficult decisions on draft day, use this schedule as a tiebreaker.  For instance, if you’re deciding between J.R. Smith or Eric Gordon in the middle rounds, I’d go with Smith based on DEN’s great schedule.  If you don’t clearly prefer Luol Deng or Thaddeus Young later, grab the Bull by the horns.  Just don’t blame me if Gordon or Young blow up this year.  Okay, blame me.

Since you all are drafting him, might as well know what Anthony Randolph looks like (Rocky Widner/NBAE/Getty Images)

I’m not a huge fan of the term “sleeper” when it comes to fantasy basketball.  How many people does it take to jump on the bandwagon before someone graduates from being a Sleeper to becoming just plain Good?  In any case, I’ll try to point out some guys who should provide value where they’re drafted (as long as you don’t reach too far for them).

First of all, a list of guys who have graduated from becoming sleepers: Derrick Rose, Brook Lopez (in fact, they both skipped the whole step of becoming a sleeper), John Salmons, J.R. Smith, Francisco Garcia, Charlie Villanueva, Spencer Hawes, you get the idea.  Now then…

VALUE SLEEPERS (GUYS YOU ALREADY KNOW)

Jameer Nelson, ORL, PG

Nelson already came back from injury, and thankfully for his fantasy owners this year, he didn’t look so hot.  That last image of a player looking a step too slow can sometimes play tricks on fantasy owners, even if an entire summer has passed.  Nelson was a top 30 guy when he was healthy last year, and ORL had enough confidence in his playmaking ability to lose both Rafer Alston and Hedo Turkoglu in the offseason (although of course VC came aboard).  Current average draft position (ADP) in Yahoo leagues: 57.  I like him in the late fourth round (of a 12-team draft).

Chris Duhon, NY, PG

Going along with the “bad taste in your mouth” idea, Duhon made it look easy after the All Star break last year, as he frankly just burned out.  But remember, he’s still the starting PG on a Mike D’Antoni team.  Unless the management in New York has no clue how to run a team (quite possible), they’ll likely monitor Duhon’s minutes more closely this year.  So while he probably won’t drop 22 AST on anyone this year, he’s certainly capable of averaging 7+ apg over an entire year.  He’s not even cracking the top 100 in ADP, but I’d take him in the ninth, maybe eighth round.

Andrew Bynum, LAK, C

Third time’s the charm, right?  After suffering two freak(ish) injuries in the previous two seasons, Bynum’s current ADP is 65.  I plan on taking him in the 50′s because even if he can play just 60+ games (a big if, granted), he should still provide good value there.  And if he’s healthy during your fantasy playoffs for H2H leagues, it’s like having an extra third round pick.

Wilson Chandler, NY, SG, SF

There are several reasons to like Chandler this year.  He’s a potential 1/1/1 guy with position-flexibility.  It’s also worth noting that he’s one of the few Knicks not in a contract year.  While NBA guys playing for their next contract is usually a good thing, in this case Chandler’s situation serves him well because he should be a lock for as many minutes as he can handle for development reasons.

SLEEPERS YOU MIGHT HAVE FORGOTTEN ABOUT

Ramon Sessions, MIN, PG, SG

He was a popular sleeper choice last year after an insane April (’08).  However, he split minutes with Luke Ridnour most of the year and never really found his groove.  While Sessions will be going to a team with arguably even less scorers in the T-Wolves, and also isn’t technically the starting PG, he will get the minutes he needs to produce numbers.  He’s currently not in the top 100 for ADP, but I have a feeling I’ll need to draft him in the eighth round in most of my leagues.

Mario Chalmers, MIA, PG

Here’s another second-year player primed for some improvement.  For one thing, I’m pretty sure he can handle more than the 32 mpg he got last year.  There’s just one disclaimer: with Wade handling the ball so much, Super Mario probably can’t wildly improve on his rookie season.  But I am looking forward to seeing upticks across the board (and he was already at 2 spg last year).

This guy's only played a year? Count on Oden to go Benjamin Button on everyone next year (AP)

Greg Oden, POR, C

Oden’s current ADP is 115.  I’m fairly confident he can finish the year as at least a top 114 player.  Remember, most players enjoy their biggest statistical improvements between their first and second years, and this is essentially Oden’s sophomore campaign.  Unlike many of last year’s star rookies, Oden didn’t play big minutes, so there’s room for improvement due to both improved skill/experience (less fouling hopefully) and increased playing time.  I’d be thrilled to land him in the ninth, maybe eighth round.

SLEEPERS EVERYONE IS TALKING ABOUT

Lou Williams, PHI, PG, SG and Russell Westbrook, OKC, PG, SG

I group these guys together because a) everybody knows they’re in line for improvements across the board.  And b) there’s probably too much hype around them to call them sleepers.  Williams is a shoot-first PG, which doesn’t translate into great fantasy stats unless you make a high enough % of them like Monta Ellis.  As for Westbrook, I’m more hopeful than confident that he can get his FG% and TO in line.  Both will certainly improve next year, but it’s hard to call them sleepers if they don’t provide value where they’re drafted.

Anthony Randolph, GS, PF

Speaking of hype…  Randolph is another guy primed for a big jump in numbers.  And month-to-month, I think he’ll deliver.  Week-to-week?  Maybe not quite as consistent.  But with the minutes he’s expected to get, he should at least be able to avoid the roller coaster that was Tyrus Thomas’ first two and a half seasons.  The only question is, with Randolph being taken earlier and earlier in drafts, will he deliver good value?

SLEEPER SLEEPERS

Jason Thompson, SAC, PF

Enough people probably know about Thompson that he can’t be called a sleeper sleeper, but since he plays in a no-man’s land, I figured I’d slot him here.  Thompson finished last season averaging a double-double with 1.3 bpg in April, and he should get plenty of minutes next year as well.

Yi Jianlian, NJ, PF

New Jersey is officially in rebuilding mode (amazingly, last year they were actually trying to make the playoffs), which means Yi should get plenty of minutes.  He’s had some individual games that leave you wanting more, and with ample playing time he figures to be able to string some of those together this year.  A potential 1/1/1 guy.

Brandon Rush, IND, SG

When he started at SG last year, Rush averaged 17 and 5 with two 3PM and decent STL/BLK.  He’s starting at SG this year.  And the latest news out of Indiana has Mike Dunleavy (surprise) suffering further setbacks with his return from injury.  Granger, Ford, and Murphy will all get theirs, but Rush could provide value in the last round.

Chris Wilcox, DET, PF, C

Wilcox has been a sleeper in years past, but this year he finds himself in a pretty favorable situation.  Detroit’s frontcourt is as thin as it’s been in years, and someone will need to rebound.  Right now, Wilcox’s primary competition for that task includes Kwame Brown and Jason Maxiell.  Or rather, just Jason Maxiell.

No-Stats All-Star? Thankfully not in fantasy basketball... (Robert Seale for The NY Times)

Shane Battier, HOU, F

Battier should get big minutes this year, because someone has to play on that team.  And with big minutes, he should clear that 1/1/1 hurdle, a great value in the last round of your draft.  Also, when else can you link to the New York Times on a fantasy basketball blog?

DeMar DeRozan, TOR, SG

DeRozan is slated to start on a TOR team with plenty of offensive firepower in that starting lineup, which means he will be called on for his defensive skills.  He could be a sneaky Jamario Moon-type player by season’s end.  You probably don’t have to draft him unless you’re in a very deep league, but keep an eye on him.  One thing is for sure, he will lead the league in capitalized letters per name.

10/22 UPDATE/ADDITIONS:

Gerald Henderson, CHA, SG, SF

With news of Raja Bell’s injury, D.J. Augustin looks like he should be upgraded in fantasy drafts.  However, the sleeper beneficiary of Bell’s injury is rookie Gerald Henderson, arguably the most athletic (and potentially defensive-minded) option at SG for the Bobcats.  I haven’t seen him play, but from what I’ve heard he could put up Ariza-like numbers (ORL Ariza not HOU Ariza).  Just someone to keep an eye on in deep leagues.

Roy Hibbert, IND, C

I pointed out some of Hibbert’s big lines from the pre-season already, and he’s been snatched up in late rounds in most drafts since he posted those lines.  While he’s put up some real duds since then (a good reminder that he’ll probably still lack consistency), I still like his potential as a second-year C.

These rankings are based on a standard 9-category format, with a slight leaning towards H2H leagues, although differing strategies for roto leagues are noted when applicable.