Posts Tagged J.R. Smith

Week 14 Recap (Who Dat? It’s Darren Collison) and Week 15 Pickups

Week 14 was business as usual for the most part… until it was reported Sunday that Chris Paul will undergo arthroscopic surgery on his left knee and miss 1-2 months.  Before you even read anything else, run out and pick up Darren Collison, who had 18 assists in Paul’s absence on Saturday.  More on that below, but first the (abbrev.) recap:

Darren Collison, it's time to shake up some fantasy basketball leagues.  (Getty Images)

Darren Collison, it's time to shake up some fantasy basketball leagues. (Getty Images)

WEEK 14 RECAP

  • Mike Miller exploded for 25, 9, and 8 including 7-10 from downtown against the Knicks on Saturday.  When news of Gilbert Arenas’ legal woes first broke, I thought Miller would give Randy Foye a run for his money in terms of being the most valuable pickup.  It’s just one game (and chances are the Knicks won’t play zone against WAS when they meet again this week), but at the very least make sure Miller isn’t a FA in your league.
  • Attention, Tyreke Evans and Brandon Jennings: Stephen Curry is running away with the fantasy ROY race.
  • The Detroit backcourt is slowly getting healthy… putting a dent in the fantasy values of every member of that team, as there are only so many minutes to go around.
  • Channing Frye might be better as a sixth man, as he’s become a much more efficient player.  Lou Williams: better as a sixth man?  Not so much.  (Although Lou posted a nice line Sunday, it seems whenever Jrue Holiday or Willie Green are playing well, Lou is the odd man out.)  Both are worth holding, especially Frye, as the Suns and 76ers figure to make deals before the trade deadline.  (I dropped Lou for Paul Millsap in one league though.)  And if Amare Stoudemire gets shipped out of Phoenix, Frye could very well end up back in the starting lineup starting alongside Robin Lopez.
  • Andrew Bynum is learning to coexist with Pau Gasol.
  • And after nearly getting suspended earlier in the week, J.R. Smith had his best week of the year, averaging 17 ppg, 3.3 threes and 2.3 spg in Carmelo Anthony’s absence.  Meanwhile, Kenyon Martin continues to dominate the boards, hurting Nene Hilario’s value.  I expect that to even out (some) in the long term though, and since KMart is a perennial injury risk, I would sell high.  (Nene could be a sneaky buy low as well, as nagging injuries have slowed him down some lately.)

WEEK 15 PICKUPS

In New Orleans, everyone's saying "Who Dat?" lately.  Why, it's Darren Collison again.  Pick him up.  (Getty Images)

In New Orleans, everyone's saying "Who Dat?" lately. Why, it's Darren Collison again. Pick him up. (Getty Images)

Darren Collison (15%)

At the time I’m writing this, Collison has already jumped up from being owned in 2% of Yahoo leagues to start the week to 15% and rising.  He filled in admirably for Paul on Saturday night and could deliver some teams to fantasy victory in the coming months.

Marcus Thornton (25%)

Likewise, Thornton should benefit from Paul’s absence.  I was already going to include him on this list as he was recently inserted into the starting lineup, but now his playing time/value increases even more.  In 4 games as a starter (one without CP3), Thornton is averaging 18 ppg and 2.3 treys.

Goerge Hill (23%)

Continuing with the point/combo-guard theme, Hill is a great add with Tony Parker out in the short term.  And, like Thornton above, Hill had recently been inserted into the starting lineup anyway, where he was already being productive.  I give a slight nod to Thornton in preference, but only because the Hornets will need him to step up without CP3 the next 1-2 months, whereas Parker’s injury isn’t as serious.

Brandon Rush (39%)

One of my preseason sleepers, Rush is quietly averaging 13.6 ppg and 5 rpg to go with 2.1/0.6/1.0 threes/stl/blk per game over the last two weeks.  Like I mentioned last week, Danny Granger’s return has really sparked him.

Robin Lopez (40%)

There’s no reason Lopez should be owned in less than half of Yahoo leagues (unless all his owners are dropping him for Collison).  If Amare Stoudemire does in fact get traded, Lopez should get all the minutes he can handle, with Steve Nash spoon-feeding him buckets.  He had a mediocre week last week, but he’s still worth a calculated gamble in my book.

Jared Jeffries (5%)

If you need defensive help in deeper leagues, Jeffries has averaged 1.3 spg and bpg over the last two months.

Keep an eye on: Keyon Dooling (2% — check Devin Harris’ status), Brad Miller (41% — resurrected his season this past week), Kris Humprhies (7%), Chase Budinger (3% — second guy off the bench with Kyle Lowry out), Goran Dragic (16%)

And before I go…

Corey Brewer (54%)

He’s made my “Keep an eye on” list the last several weeks, and Brewer has finally cleared the 50% hurdle with another stellar 3-pt shooting week.  Add in the fact that MIN only has 2 games this week, and you’re probably wondering why I’m including him here though.  Well, I just needed an excuse to post this video.  (Apologies, Derek Fisher.)

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20-Second Timeout: Lou Williams and Chauncey Billups

Lou Williams

According to Kate Fagan of the Philly Inquirer, Lou Williams could be back at practice as soon as today.  Coupled with the news of Allen Iverson needing an MRI for his achy knee, Lou’s fantasy prospects suddenly look a lot brighter.  If you can afford to hold him for what could be anything from 1-2 weeks of DNPs, I’d grab him off waivers.  I just did in one of my leagues.

With Jameer Nelson and Mike Miller also on the verge of returning, all three are probably worth stashing depending on your needs/the size of your league.  If you need STL, go with Lou.  If you want more classic PG stats, go with Jameer.  And if you’re looking for across-the-board production (and a sneaky source of AST from the SF spot), go with Miller.  I value them roughly in that order as well, with Williams and Nelson neck-and-neck because of the AI factor.

Chauncey Billups

The other half of AI’s last trade is also awaiting MRI results.  While Billups’ groin injury isn’t thought to be serious, you can bet the Nuggets will be cautious with their aging vet.  Ty Lawson is worth a short-term pickup, and everyone else (especially J.R. Smith) should enjoy a few more shot attempts.

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20-Second Timeout: Stephen Jackson, Anthony Randolph, and Earl Smith III

When your teammates would rather have Corey Maggette than you, that's a bad sign.  (AP)

When your teammates would rather have Corey Maggette than you, that's a bad sign. (AP)

For my more regular readers… don’t panic.  Stephen Jackson isn’t injured.  I’m changing the name of my injury updates/fallouts to what they should have been called in the first place, Injury Timeouts.  (Duh.)  20-Second Timeouts will be quick in-depth analyses from interesting news items around the Association.

Stephen Jackson

Even though he won Golden State of Mind’s “Warrior Wonder” award for his 10 point, 15 assist double-double last night (yes, it was against MIN but it still counts!), Yahoo Sports is reporting that the Warriors are anxious to part ways with S-Jax and have as many as ten suitors.  Nothing’s certain, but at this point I’d be more surprised if he ends the year as a Warrior than if he doesn’t.

What would it mean for his fantasy value?

If you drafted Jackson, like I did in one league (one of those “he’s too talented to be drafted this late” situations), you had to expect this after Jackson’s off-season griping.  His future fantasy value depends on where he’s traded, but his value will likely decline based on assists alone.  He wants to be traded to a contender, and there are few contenders I can think of who will let Jackson handle the ball as much as he did in The City.  However, I expect his other numbers to stay relatively level, but it all depends.  If you’re at all worried about his value nosediving, try to trade him now.  I’m listening to offers but not panicking.

What would it mean for the other Warriors’ value?

Again, this depends on where Jackson is headed to, or rather, what pieces are coming back to Golden State.  The Warriors are reportedly coveting a big man, so guys like Kelenna Azubuike and Anthony Morrow should be picked up and stashed.  They’re already valuable in deeper leagues, and if Jackson gets traded, they’ll be among this year’s waiver wire steals.  Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry should also see some bumps in production, particularly assists, as they would need to handle the ball more with Jackson gone.

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Draft Strategy: Don’t hate the player, hate the team

Note: Since you can find some good links to fantasy basketball draft strategy here, I’ll try to focus on a few areas often overlooked.

Don't hate Devin Harris.  Hate the Nets.

Don't hate Devin Harris. Hate the Nets. (Marc Rasbury/Icon SMI)

Team schedule.  It might sound like the most boring part of playing fantasy basketball, but sometimes it makes a world of difference, especially in H2H leagues (note: this article is mainly intended for H2H players).  There are two crucial parts of team schedule:

a) How many times a team plays per week.

b) How many “Off-Days” a team plays.

As I was gearing up to write this, I came across a pretty great analysis of the former at Basketball Free For All via another site, FourPointPlay.  I was planning to do something similar but they’ve already done a great job analyzing the NBA schedule on a play-per-week basis.  So I’ll focus on the latter.

What exactly do I mean by Off-Days?  The days where almost every team gets a day off.  Your Thanksgivings, Christmases, and New Years, to name a few.  But there are always some teams playing on those days, and since they’re often big primetime TV days, the teams are usually the superstar-led ones, like the Cavaliers, Lakers, and Celtics.  But not always.

In H2H leagues it’s especially useful to own players on these teams (it doesn’t always have to be the superstar, mind you) because it often adds to your TOTAL GAME count for that week (assuming you don’t have a weekly cap on games).  Even if you do have a cap on games, when your best players play on these Off-Days, it frees you up to use your most efficient combination of players on the days where everyone seems to be playing.  Here’s an example:

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Fantasy Basketball Sleepers 2009-10

Since you all are drafting him, might as well know what he looks like (Rocky Widner/NBAE/Getty Images)

Since you all are drafting him, might as well know what Anthony Randolph looks like (Rocky Widner/NBAE/Getty Images)

I’m not a huge fan of the term “sleeper” when it comes to fantasy basketball.  How many people does it take to jump on the bandwagon before someone graduates from being a Sleeper to becoming just plain Good?  In any case, I’ll try to point out some guys who should provide value where they’re drafted (as long as you don’t reach too far for them).

First of all, a list of guys who have graduated from becoming sleepers: Derrick Rose, Brook Lopez (in fact, they both skipped the whole step of becoming a sleeper), John Salmons, J.R. Smith, Francisco Garcia, Charlie Villanueva, Spencer Hawes, you get the idea.  Now then…

VALUE SLEEPERS (GUYS YOU ALREADY KNOW)

Jameer Nelson, ORL, PG

Nelson already came back from injury, and thankfully for his fantasy owners this year, he didn’t look so hot.  That last image of a player looking a step too slow can sometimes play tricks on fantasy owners, even if an entire summer has passed.  Nelson was a top 30 guy when he was healthy last year, and ORL had enough confidence in his playmaking ability to lose both Rafer Alston and Hedo Turkoglu in the offseason (although of course VC came aboard).  Current average draft position (ADP) in Yahoo leagues: 57.  I like him in the late fourth round (of a 12-team draft).

Chris Duhon, NY, PG

Going along with the “bad taste in your mouth” idea, Duhon made it look easy after the All Star break last year, as he frankly just burned out.  But remember, he’s still the starting PG on a Mike D’Antoni team.  Unless the management in New York has no clue how to run a team (quite possible), they’ll likely monitor Duhon’s minutes more closely this year.  So while he probably won’t drop 22 AST on anyone this year, he’s certainly capable of averaging 7+ apg over an entire year.  He’s not even cracking the top 100 in ADP, but I’d take him in the ninth, maybe eighth round.

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Fantasy Basketball Draft Rankings: 71-80

Fantasy basketball draft rankings: 71-80

These rankings are based on a standard 9-category format, with a slight leaning towards H2H leagues, although differing strategies for roto leagues are noted when applicable.


Player Team POS Analysis
71 John Salmons CHI SG, SF I’m still kicking myself for not drafting Salmons in the seventh round of one of my leagues last year.  Chances are he won’t make it that far this year as Salmons steps into the starting SG role for the Bulls sans Ben Gordon.  Expect similar numbers as last year, except in AST unfortunately, where playing alongside Derrick Rose (instead of, uh, Beno Udrih) for an entire year will likely hurt his apg.
72 Russell Westbrook OKC PG I am looking forward to increases across the board in Westbrook’s sophomore campaign.  While his erratic FG% is worrisome (ranging from 34% to 46% month-to-month), one would think with a year under his belt he can limit those atrocious 3 for 19 outings.  Already a 15, 5, and 5 guy, look for him to approach Steve Francis numbers circa 2003 when Francis was going in rounds 3 or 4 of drafts.
73 Tyrus Thomas CHI PF A popular sleeper the last few years, Thomas finally delivered on a somewhat consistent level last year, finishing with 1.2 spg and 1.9 bpg a la a mini-Ben Wallace from yesteryear. With some added consistency, his numbers should tick up a bit across the board.
74 Rasheed Wallace BOS PF, C Although it’s unclear whether Sheed will start, at worse he’ll log super sub minutes a la Lamar Odom. Plus, the last time Sheed was traded to a contending, veteran team, he fit in quite well. Expect the usual 1/1/1 numbers.
75 J.R. Smith DEN SG, SF With Kleiza out of town, Smith will be relied on even more to score. Plus, his disastrous shooting games have slowly decreased the last couple years, a sign that George Karl is finally getting through to him. (In fact he’s shot about 45% over the last two seasons.) Given that he’s F-eligible in Yahoo leagues, hits 2+ 3’s per game, and has steadily improved his AST and STL, he’ll be a popular choice on draft day.
76 Jason Terry DAL SG Marion’s arrival won’t help the Jet’s fantasy numbers.  However, I expect Marion to more negatively impact Josh Howard, even though Howard is slated to slide into that starting SG spot.  Although his scoring will likely dip, I still expect 2+ 3’s per game, which unfortunately for us means we’ll be seeing just as much of that airplane-flying-thingy he does after every 3PM.
77 Eric Gordon LAC SG With the Clippers adding (through health or draft) multiple scoring options to the squad next year, expect Gordon’s sophomore jump to be tempered.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Baron sets him up for more 3’s, but the overall ppg might stay relatively level.  Add in the fact that he lost his F-eligibility (in Yahoo leagues) from last year, and his value takes another slight hit.
78 Anthony Randolph GS PF How much do you reach for Randolph?  The 7th round in a 12-team draft seems reasonable, but someone on the hype machine might grab him even before that.  If you do happen to land him, be prepared for inconsistency, but it should be a pretty fun ride.
79 Trevor Ariza HOU SF After being the fifth (maybe even sixth?) option on the Lakers last year, Ariza is suddenly the go-to guy on the Rockets this year.  While he should improve his numbers across the board, I have a feeling his %’s will give owners headaches all year.  With no Kobe, Pau, or Yao to free him up for open looks, things could get ugly for his FG%.
80 Spencer Hawes SAC PF, C As the starting C for the Kings last year, Hawes delivered 13 and 8 with a few assists while also tossing in 0.7/0.7/1.1 3PM/STL/BLK.  He’s slated to start at C this year and should be a nice fantasy play.

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