Posts Tagged Gilbert Arenas

Week 14 Recap (Who Dat? It’s Darren Collison) and Week 15 Pickups

Week 14 was business as usual for the most part… until it was reported Sunday that Chris Paul will undergo arthroscopic surgery on his left knee and miss 1-2 months.  Before you even read anything else, run out and pick up Darren Collison, who had 18 assists in Paul’s absence on Saturday.  More on that below, but first the (abbrev.) recap:

Darren Collison, it's time to shake up some fantasy basketball leagues.  (Getty Images)

Darren Collison, it's time to shake up some fantasy basketball leagues. (Getty Images)

WEEK 14 RECAP

  • Mike Miller exploded for 25, 9, and 8 including 7-10 from downtown against the Knicks on Saturday.  When news of Gilbert Arenas’ legal woes first broke, I thought Miller would give Randy Foye a run for his money in terms of being the most valuable pickup.  It’s just one game (and chances are the Knicks won’t play zone against WAS when they meet again this week), but at the very least make sure Miller isn’t a FA in your league.
  • Attention, Tyreke Evans and Brandon Jennings: Stephen Curry is running away with the fantasy ROY race.
  • The Detroit backcourt is slowly getting healthy… putting a dent in the fantasy values of every member of that team, as there are only so many minutes to go around.
  • Channing Frye might be better as a sixth man, as he’s become a much more efficient player.  Lou Williams: better as a sixth man?  Not so much.  (Although Lou posted a nice line Sunday, it seems whenever Jrue Holiday or Willie Green are playing well, Lou is the odd man out.)  Both are worth holding, especially Frye, as the Suns and 76ers figure to make deals before the trade deadline.  (I dropped Lou for Paul Millsap in one league though.)  And if Amare Stoudemire gets shipped out of Phoenix, Frye could very well end up back in the starting lineup starting alongside Robin Lopez.
  • Andrew Bynum is learning to coexist with Pau Gasol.
  • And after nearly getting suspended earlier in the week, J.R. Smith had his best week of the year, averaging 17 ppg, 3.3 threes and 2.3 spg in Carmelo Anthony’s absence.  Meanwhile, Kenyon Martin continues to dominate the boards, hurting Nene Hilario’s value.  I expect that to even out (some) in the long term though, and since KMart is a perennial injury risk, I would sell high.  (Nene could be a sneaky buy low as well, as nagging injuries have slowed him down some lately.)

WEEK 15 PICKUPS

In New Orleans, everyone's saying "Who Dat?" lately.  Why, it's Darren Collison again.  Pick him up.  (Getty Images)

In New Orleans, everyone's saying "Who Dat?" lately. Why, it's Darren Collison again. Pick him up. (Getty Images)

Darren Collison (15%)

At the time I’m writing this, Collison has already jumped up from being owned in 2% of Yahoo leagues to start the week to 15% and rising.  He filled in admirably for Paul on Saturday night and could deliver some teams to fantasy victory in the coming months.

Marcus Thornton (25%)

Likewise, Thornton should benefit from Paul’s absence.  I was already going to include him on this list as he was recently inserted into the starting lineup, but now his playing time/value increases even more.  In 4 games as a starter (one without CP3), Thornton is averaging 18 ppg and 2.3 treys.

Goerge Hill (23%)

Continuing with the point/combo-guard theme, Hill is a great add with Tony Parker out in the short term.  And, like Thornton above, Hill had recently been inserted into the starting lineup anyway, where he was already being productive.  I give a slight nod to Thornton in preference, but only because the Hornets will need him to step up without CP3 the next 1-2 months, whereas Parker’s injury isn’t as serious.

Brandon Rush (39%)

One of my preseason sleepers, Rush is quietly averaging 13.6 ppg and 5 rpg to go with 2.1/0.6/1.0 threes/stl/blk per game over the last two weeks.  Like I mentioned last week, Danny Granger’s return has really sparked him.

Robin Lopez (40%)

There’s no reason Lopez should be owned in less than half of Yahoo leagues (unless all his owners are dropping him for Collison).  If Amare Stoudemire does in fact get traded, Lopez should get all the minutes he can handle, with Steve Nash spoon-feeding him buckets.  He had a mediocre week last week, but he’s still worth a calculated gamble in my book.

Jared Jeffries (5%)

If you need defensive help in deeper leagues, Jeffries has averaged 1.3 spg and bpg over the last two months.

Keep an eye on: Keyon Dooling (2% — check Devin Harris’ status), Brad Miller (41% — resurrected his season this past week), Kris Humprhies (7%), Chase Budinger (3% — second guy off the bench with Kyle Lowry out), Goran Dragic (16%)

And before I go…

Corey Brewer (54%)

He’s made my “Keep an eye on” list the last several weeks, and Brewer has finally cleared the 50% hurdle with another stellar 3-pt shooting week.  Add in the fact that MIN only has 2 games this week, and you’re probably wondering why I’m including him here though.  Well, I just needed an excuse to post this video.  (Apologies, Derek Fisher.)

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Week 12 Recap (Raaaaaaaandy!) and Week 13 Pickups

Week 12 featured a franchise quickly forgetting its (once) franchise player, the return of another (once?) franchise player in Sacramento, and the continued (and now seemingly sustainable) dominance of a player playing with a purpose.

(By the way, “Raaaaaaaandy!” is actually spelled exactly correctly.  It’s a reference to Aziz Ansari’s character in the movie Funny People.  Check it out at LaughYourDickOff.com.  Yes, you read that right.)

Randy Foye got off to such a hot start as Agent 0's replacement, you knew Fantasy Hoopster had to trade him.  (Getty Images)

Randy Foye got off to such a hot start as Agent 0's replacement, you knew Fantasy Hoopster had to trade him. (Getty Images)

Randy Foye

Gilbert who?  Life went on in WAS without Gilbert Arenas, with Antawn Jamison picking up much of the slack.  But it was Foye who particular impressed this past week, playing the best stretch of his year, so of course I just traded him.  Was it the right move?  Who knows, but here’s my reasoning.

Reasons to sell high: He’s shooting well above his career FG% right now.  If Caron Butler or Jamison gets traded, that might translate into more points but at a less efficient rate, which equals a bad tradeoff in my mind (at least for my particular team).  Also, when Mike Miller returns that’ll likely dent into Foye’s AST totals.

Reasons to keep: Apparently he has the reins to the team.  He took shots at the end of both overtimes (missing both) against Chicago.  Maybe he just needed a new setting and style of offense to excel.  His only (current) competition at PG is technically considered a dwarf in certain countries.

Obviously, I leaned towards the former.  In my trade, I packaged Foye along with Andre Iguodala (I also threw in Yi Jianlian) for Dwyane Wade and a couple scrubs who I plan to drop for Luke Ridnour and another player to be determined.  Yes, I know I overpaid, but the trade made sense to me for several reasons, which I might point out in another post if people are interested.

Also, going back to an earlier post when Arenas was first suspended, back then I decided not to drop Nate Robinson for Foye, but then quickly decided to drop Tyrus Thomas instead.  I’m sure most of you have already figured out Foye is currently the hottest player of all three, although as exhibited on Saturday night, he’s not perfect.

Kevin Martin

Martin returned this week and quickly resumed draining threes again.  That’s not too surprising.  The more interesting subplot (or is it main plot now?) to this story involves his effect on a couple of Sacto’s rising rookies: Tyreke Evans and Omri Casspi.

Two games isn’t much of a sample, but it appears as if Evans won’t be affected too much at all — he still controlled the ball for the most part and his shot attempts were still there — while Casspi’s role in the offense was reduced.  This isn’t too surprising; even though Martin just signed a nice extension, I’d argue Evans is Sacto’s new franchise player now.  It’s still early, but I’m glad I didn’t advise anyone to sell high on Evans.  Sadly, I also didn’t have enough balls to advise trading for him from a panicked manager who might’ve sold him on the cheap.  Either way, if you own Evans I’d breathe a slight sigh of relief, although everything is fluid in fantasy of course.

As for Casspi, I think some of those shot attempts might come back, but probably not at a consistent enough level for him to be mentioned in the fantasy ROY race anymore.  Evans and Martin are going to get their shots, so that probably means a lot of inconsistency for the rest of the Kings, especially Casspi.

ROY Race

This hasn’t been much of a race lately, at least not between Brandon Jennings and Tyreke Evans.  (Hello, Stephen Curry with your 6 stl/fouls against MIL on Friday night.)  I just mentioned Evans has a great chance to retain most of his value even with KevMart back, but it’s the absence of Michael Redd that might revitalize Jennings’ season.  Jennings is clearly a rhythm shooter, and he never quite found the rhythm (or volume) for his shots with Redd back.  But now that he (and Andrew Bogut) are the primary offensive options in MIL again, Jennings has a chance to get back to his old numbers… although I wouldn’t expect him to shoot above 40%.  If you can handle the ugly shooting, you might be able to snag him with a lowball offer.

Samuel Dalembert

Dalembert has been on a tear the entire month of January, and his last couple games have been particularly sweet.  In the past, I’ve recommended him as a waiver wire pickup that people should sell high on if possible because of his historic inconsistency, but I think I’m changing my tune now, for two (non-stat-based) reasons.

Dalembert’s productivity (along with a lot of other NBA players) is often directly related to his motivation/focus.  Well non-stat-based reason #1 that I like Sammy D the rest of the way is because he really plays with more passion whenever Allen Iverson is on the court.  Back when Iverson was first signed by the 76ers, I mentioned Dalembert even had dreams that AI would return to the squad.  Man-crush or motivation?  Who knows, but it’s translated into great numbers for Sammy D.

Non-stat-based reason #2, on the other hand, is no joking matter at all.  Dalembert is a native Haitian, and in the two games since the tragedy in Haiti, a lot of people have been saying he’s played with a clear focus (14.5 ppg and 16.5 rpg with 2 bpg while shooting a combined 13-15 from the floor).  I hate to bring reality into a blog about pure fantasy, but if you’ve ever had something absolutely shitty happen to you in real life, I’m sure you can relate with “focusing on work” as a temporary escape.  I don’t think NBA players are an exception to that, and it looks like Dalembert might be playing with a heavy heart from here on out.

By the way, there are a ton of ways to help out with the earthquake in Haiti.  Here’s one organization that’s already been working there for 20 years that some friends of mine have volunteered for.  It’s called Partners in Health, and I know they make a difference if you’re worried about how your donations are spent.

standwithhaiti

And in other Week 12 (fantasy) news:

As the guys at GiveMeTheRock point out, Charlotte is on a roll, led by none other than Stephen JacksonGerald Wallace and Raymond Felton are still playing well, but the other big fantasy news out of CHA is Boris Diaw, who is finally adjusting to his new teammate.  Buy low if you can.

In LA, Pau Gasol returned from injury, and Andrew Bynum decided to put up another great line.  This is encouraging news if you own Bynum, although I wouldn’t expect it to be the norm.  I still expect Bynum to have many more night like this, but with some mediocre games sprinkled in.

In Chicago, Joakim Noah is on fire from the free throw line and the sole reason why I’ve risen a couple spots in that category so far this month in one roto league.

In Indiana, Roy Hibbert is on fire from everywhere… and that’s with Danny Granger and Troy Murphy back.  Remember when I said he’d average a double-double with 2 bpg back when he was mired in a slump?  Even I laughed at myself.  Expect some inconsistency, but I’m glad/relieved I still have him in all my leagues.

WEEK 13 PICKUPS

Since my top pick from last week is still owned in less than half of Yahoo leagues, I’ll just mention Kirk Hinrich (49%) first.  Okay, there.  Now onto to some fresh meat.

Rasual Butler (26%)

Just in case you were wondering who that guy who keeps hitting 3's for your team looks like... (Getty Images)

Just in case you were wondering who that guy who keeps hitting 3's for your team looks like... (Getty Images)

Okay, so he’s not exactly fresh because this is probably the fourth time he’s made this list.  Also, I alluded to this earlier in the week, but with Blake Griffin out for the year, both Butler and Al Thornton don’t have to look over their shoulders quite as much anymore.  I much prefer Butler (as does Mike Dunleavy Sr.), and he has a real chance to keep up his current pace of 13.8 ppg with 1.7 threes as starting SF (including 33 pts and 4 treys versus the Cavs Saturday night), albeit with some inconsistency.

DeJuan Blair (23%)

I mentioned Blair in a recent Eye-Opening Lines post.  Since then, the undersized center had 8 and 8 in a foul-plagued game against MEM.  If you need a big man, check him out.

Luke Ridnour (38%), Ersan Ilyasova (38%), and Carlos Delfino (6%)

I mentioned these guys last week, and I still like them to benefit from Michael Redd’s season-ending injury (roughly in this order).  At one point earlier in the year, Ridnour was actually ranked in the top 50 as he was an efficient source of 3’s and ast.  Meanwhile Ilyasova had already been solid in recent weeks, while Delfino exploded for 28 pts in his last game.

Robin Lopez (7%)

I’ve been waiting for Lopez to eat into Channing Frye’s minutes all year and it finally happened last week.  In PHO’s two most recent games, Lopez averaged 12.5 ppg and 4.5 bpg in 27 mpg (all season highs).  One of the games was a blowout; one was highly contested.  I’m not sure if this is a trend, but pay close to attention if you need blk.

Some guys I’ve spent plenty of ink on already:

Mike Miller (37% — no official word on return, but should be owned in most leagues), Martell Webster (47%), Matt Barnes (29% — if you’re worried about Rashard Lewis, it’s actually Barnes and not Vince Carter who is hurting him more)

Some other guys to keep an eye on:

Corey Brewer (34%), Jonas Jerebko (7% — back in the starting lineup…for now), Delonte West (21%), Steve Blake (10% — still hitting 3’s as a sub), Vladimir Radmanovic (5% — check status), Chuck Hayes (12% — last week’s averages were inflated by a monster 3OT game, but he was relevant earlier in the year), Earl Watson (10%), Jared Jeffries (1% — still a cheap source of stl/blk), James Posey (5%), Shannon Brown (2%), DeAndre Jordan (3% — check Chris Kaman’s status)

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Week 11 Recap (Out with the “0″ and in with the Grangerous) and Week 12 Pickups

I almost pulled off a deal that would've landed me Granger to go with Durant, but then Granger came back from injury a week early.  F my life.  (Getty Images)

I almost pulled off a deal that would've landed me Granger to go with Durant, but then Granger came back from injury a week early. F my life. (Getty Images)

Week 11 featured the early end to what was turning into a triumphant return for Agent 0, the mixed bag early return of a nicknameless fantasy stud, and one of my favorite parts of fantasy basketball that can never come too early… trade winds.

Gilbert Arenas

Don’t athletes only pay tribute to their fallen teammates after they’re… uh… dead?  Well, DeShawn Stevenson felt compelled to pay tribute to Arenas before the Wizards’ home game on Sunday after the WIzards’ top brass decided to erase Arenas from their programs, marketing campaigns, and memory.  Maybe “dead” is a little strong/inappropriate, but it’s looking more and more like Arenas is dead to the Wizards.

Yet Gilbert is still owned in 72% of Yahoo leagues, which tells me most of his owners are in denial.  Feel free to stay in that lovely state, at least for another week or so, if there are no quality FA left in your league.  But if there’s a hot item, jump on it.  The fact that Arenas’ infamous Twitter account is officially dead is probably more a sign of the times than a sign of remorse.

Although Randy Foye was the obvious favorite to take over at starting PG, I really liked Mike Miller as a better pickup last week because of his efficiency.  And while I still like him (and own him in one league), he already aggravated his calf injury in just his second game back.  So, Foye is the clear guy to own now, with Nick Young playing big minutes in Miller’s absence on Sunday as well.  Young is a nice start this week, assuming the Wizards won’t rush Miller back.  And I still like Caron Butler to pull it around… if he’s still a Wizard.

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Fantasy Fallout: Dumb and Dumber and Gilbert Arenas

Guns don’t kill fantasy seasons.  Gilbert Arenas does.

Gilbert Arenas has been suspended indefinitely by David Stern.  Randy Foye looks like the likely starter for now, while others who will receive an immediate bump in value include Mike Miller, Caron Butler, and Earl Boykins.  Since Butler’s only available in one-on-one fantasy leagues, I prefer Miller first, then Foye.  In fact, run out and pick up Miller now.  I’ll explain below.

And — this is purely speculation — keep an eye on disgruntled point guards and crowded backcourts across the land, such as the Andre Miller/Steve Blake mess in Portland, Nate Robinson in NY, T.J. Ford in Indy, and Kirk Hinrich in Chi-town.  These guys’ names have been floated around all season, but since there’s nothing certain, I’ll focus on the guys in Wizards uni’s.

Gilbert Arenas

If you own Arenas, you probably have to wait just a little bit — a few days?  a week? — to see if this might be a temporary thing.  But it’s probably not going to be.  In the meantime, instead of yelling at ESPN, feel free to watch Arenas’ life implode real-time on his Twitter page.

UPDATE: Uh, scratch that “wait just a little bit” part.  According to the reliable Adrian Wojnarowski, Arenas is likely done for the year.

Caron Butler

First of all, if you own Butler you can breathe a sigh of relief… for now.  If things stay as they are (i.e., the Wizards don’t make any moves), I see no reason why Butler won’t regain his top 20 form from last year.  He’s already been regaining his shooting touch in recent weeks.  But the reason I added the “for now” part is because there are rumors the Wizards might blow up the whole team now.  If Butler gets traded to, say, Chicago as one rumor has it, his value immediately drops in that crowded SF situation.  If you own him, let him put up a few monster lines and then try to trade for a top 25ish guy if you’re worried about a potential trade.  If you’re trying to trade for him, tread with caution.

Mike Miller

Since Butler is obviously probably already taken, I’d prefer Miller first, then Foye, then Boykins.  Here’s why: Miller has the healthiest percentages of the group and has a real chance to average 4+ reb and ast while contributing 1+ threes and stl.  It might not look that sexy on paper, but he’s a safe bet to be the highest ranked player of these three.

Randy Foye and Earl Boykins

Foye has been a starter in the past (though for the lowly T-Wolves) and can score if the Wizards call on him to do so.  However, the Wizards already have plenty of guys who can score (Butler and Antawn Jamison, anyone?) so they may try to force Foye into that PG spot, much like MIN did, which didn’t work out too well now did it.  But the Wizards probably wanted Foye as some Arenas insurance in the first place (little did they know it would be for Gil’s dumb ass rather than his bum knee), so he’ll get his chance.  Bottom line: I wouldn’t be surprised if he averages something in the neighborhood of 15, 3, and 4 with 1.X threes, but I’d expect a lot of inconsistency too.

Who should you drop for Foye?  I just decided not to drop Nate Robinson, but if you’re sick of someone like T.J. Ford who isn’t perfect (lack of threes) when he starts anyway, I’d probably make the move for Foye.  (Again, just keep an eye on the situation as Ford could potentially replace Foye in real life via trade.)  Also, if someone just beat you to picking up Rafer Alston, who was just dealt to Miami and will start for the Heat, Foye is a nice consolation.  I think they’ll put up similar numbers, with Foye scoring more and Rafer hitting some more 3’s at a worse FG%.

As for Little Earl Boykins (why do I always feel compelled to add “Little” before his name), he could be a sneaky pick-up in deeper leagues, but just as (if not more) inconsistent than Foye.

Andray Blatche, Nick Young, JaVale McGee, etc.

And if the Wizards do use this as an unexpected gift/excuse to void Arenas’ contract and blow up the team, look for some of the young guys to get a spike in value.  It’s all speculative now, but be ready to jump on Blatche if Butler or Jamison get shipped out.

And although it’s unlikely, wouldn’t it be kind of awesome if Javaris Crittenton was the biggest benefactor of all?

Which PG would you most want to own right now?

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Week 10 Recap (Starring Gilbert Arenas as a Washington Bullet) and Week 11 Pickups

Three explosive fantasy guards dominated the headlines in Week 10, with only one of them doing it for the right reasons.

Are you ready for your mug shot, or, er, close up, Mr. Arenas?  (The Canadian Press)

Are you ready for your mug shot, or, er, close up, Mr. Arenas? (The Canadian Press)

Gilbert Arenas

Is that a gun in your pocket or are you just happy to…  Oh.  That is a gun in your pocket.  Agent Zero made headlines for all the wrong reasons this week as he inexplicably brought/stored three guns at work.  In his defense though, he’s kind of a bonehead (and the guns were unloaded).  There are sources reporting everything from Hibachi trying to pull off a practical joke gone awry to Arenas and teammate Javaris Crittenton going Alien vs. Predator on one another over a gambling debt.  I have a feeling it’s a little closer to the former, but regardless of the intent, this doesn’t bode well if you own Arenas.

Some people, including Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo sports, think Arenas could be in store for an extended suspension.  David Stern is hard to predict, but if he decides to make an example of Arenas, Caron Butler and Randy Foye (in theory) would enjoy an immediate jump in value.  We should all know Arenas’ fate by Monday.  Keep your fingers crossed if you spent a third round pick on him.

Nate Robinson

KryptoNate came back down to earth on Sunday, but I think you can forgive him after his 41-pt, 6-reb, 8-ast effort on Friday night — single-handedly carrying the Knicks over the Hawks.  In his post-game interview, Robinson seemed genuinely humbled by his month layoff at the hands of Mike D’Antoni, and more importantly, in the game he seemed hungry.  He’s still available in 47% of Yahoo leagues.  (I added him in one league over the weekend.)

And on a side note, Larry Hughes hasn’t played the last 2 games.

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Week 9 Recap (All Carl Landry wants for Christmas is his 2-pt buckets) and Week 10 Pickups

Elbows to his face aren't the only high-percentage shots Carl Landry is taking lately.  (Getty Images)

Elbows to his face aren't the only high-percentage shots Carl Landry is taking lately. (Getty Images)

Week 9 featured the return of some quality fantasy backups, the emergence and re-emergence of some efficiency experts, and the re-emergence of an inefficiency expert.

Tyrus Thomas, Leandro Barbosa, and Jameer Nelson

All three guys returned this week, and I’m pretty psyched to have all three on one of my squads (Thomas and Barbosa as of two weeks ago).  Thomas made the biggest noise with a 21 and 9 performance vs. the Hornets Saturday night, while Barbosa had a couple solid games and Nelson was a little up-and-down.  Needless to say, all three should be taken in most formats.

Zach Randolph and Carl Landry

Meanwhile, two guys who started off the season with fairly pedestrian numbers have really stepped their games up over the last several weeks.  Don’t look now, but Z-Bo is averaging 23 and 14 in the month of December on 51% shooting from the field and a ridiculous 92% from the stripe.  Meanwhile, Carl “All I want for Christmas is my two front teeth” Landry has averaged 17.6 and 5.6 on a whopping 63% from the field and 86% from the stripe (and with a nice 7 attempts per game).

They’re also both relatively cheap trade targets, for different reasons.  Landry, because he’s still relatively unknown, and Randolph, because he’s traditionally known as only a “points and rebounds” guy, which is still mostly true (he’s also at 1.1 spg over the last month), but his efficiency has translated into a #28 ranking by Yahoo averages over the last month.  (Landry is #44.)  Both will likely drop off  some, but if you’re going to target either, you can probably get Landry at a much better value, although you might want to wait for him to stop having 20-point games before making an offer.

(And speaking of efficiency, I also wanted to note another potentially “cheap” guy.  Raymond Felton is ranked a ridiculous #14 over the last month, shooting 53% from the field and 90% from the line.  Again, he likely can’t keep that up, but he looks to have turned a corner with his improved shot selection.)

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Week 8 Recap (T-Mac plays “7 Minutes in Heaven”) and Week 9 Pickups

7 minutes in heaven?  Seventh graders are getting more play than T-Mac is right now...  (Getty Images)

7 minutes in heaven? Seventh graders are getting more play than T-Mac is right now... (Getty Images)

In Week 8, some of the most important fantasy happenings occurred off the court, with several fantasy stars on the verge of returning to the court.  It also featured Superman returning to form, T-Mac getting “out-played” by seventh graders, and a possible new contender in the fantasy ROY race.

Lou Williams, Jameer Nelson, and Tyrus Thomas (and Marreese Speights)

Hopefully you heard some of my barking (as well as some of the guys on my message boards) and were quick enough to pick up Williams, Nelson, or Thomas over the past week.  Williams actually already returned to action with a subpar outing versus the Clippers, but with Allen Iverson out at least a week due to arthritis, Sweet Lou will have plenty of time to get back into form… and before we know it, Iverson will be the one adjusting to him instead of the other way around.

Meanwhile, Nelson is expected to return early in Week 9, while Thomas will likely return at the end of the week.  And another guy who returned to the lineup after an extended absence and has already turned in 3 solid (including one great) game is Marreese Speights.  With both Elton Brand and Samuel Dalembert healthy and playing decently, I’m not expecting too much consistency from Speights.  But if you need help at C, he’s definitely worth a look, and he’s only taken in 30% of Yahoo leagues right now.

By the way, if you missed out on any of the above guys, the next (mini) wave of injured guys returning includes Leandro Barbosa (expected to return around mid-to-late week) and in deeper leagues, Yi Jianlian (expected back mid-week).

Dwight Howard

Meanwhile, Superman returned to form, averaging 17 and 18 with 4.5 bpg in 4 games.  It’s no coincidence this Superman-esque stretch occurred after a Dec. 11 game at Phoenix in which the Suns went Hack-a-Howard and allowed D-12 to only get off 1 (yes ONE) field goal attempt.  I unsuccessfully tried to buy low on Howard all year in one H2H league where I already own Rajon Rondo and Andrew Bogut (FT% punt, anyone?), and that window has probably slammed shut for good now.  Oh well.

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Week 7 Recap (Raymond Felton is a model of efficiency) and Week 8 Pickups

In Week 7, Rip Hamilton and Michael Redd returned from injury.  Allen Iverson returned from the grave.  Several fast-starters hit a wall.  Raymond Felton did his best Chris Paul impersonation.  And in the biggest news of all, Danny Granger did his best, well, Danny Granger impersonation.  (And Jose Calderon might have done his Jose Calderon impersonation as well.)

Is Raymond Felton turning into a crafty veteran?  Because here he sure looks like that old dude at the Y who somehow uses his elbows when he shoots.  (Getty Images)

Is Raymond Felton turning into a crafty veteran? Because here he sure looks like that old dude at the Y who somehow uses his off-elbow when he shoots. (Getty Images)

Danny Granger

I already posted an immediate reaction to Granger’s injury, and a lot of it holds true.  As a lot of you agreed, Mike Dunleavy is the guy to own, especially after a monster performance against the Wizards Friday.  Roy Hibbert indeed shifted into the starting lineup and has taken about 12 shots per game since DG went down, but he only hit those shots in one game where he went off for 20 and 9 (on his birthday).  Once those shots start falling, he’ll be a very useful fantasy C over the next month.  I’d expect somewhere in the neighborhood of 14 and 8 with 1.5 bpg.  And last but not least, Tyler Hansbrough has had three very solid performances, averaging about 18 and 7 with 1.7 spg.

Raymond Felton

It’s already almost been a month since Stephen Jackson was traded to Charlotte, and there are some clear patterns emerging.  First of all, I decided to play my “wild card” guess on Gerald Wallace, predicting that Jackson’s arrival would spark him, so I’ll pat myself on the back for that.  I also took an educated guess that Raymond Felton’s AST would go down, which was also true (barely), but I didn’t expect his value to skyrocket to the tune of a #57 ranking over the last month (Yahoo averages).


FG% FT% 3PM PTS REB AST STL BLK TO
Raymond Felton .482 .769 0.9 11.9 3.2 5.1 2.2 0.1 1.6

There’s a few things working in Felton’s favor here.  First of all, he’s enjoying what might be his most efficient stretch in his career, shooting 48% from the field (career 40%) with only 1.6 TO per game (career 2.7) over the last month.  A lot of that has to do with taking less shots because of Jackson, and also more efficient shots playing alongside another playmaker for once.  Over the last week in particular, he’s shooting 60% from the field with 3.7 spg, which probably qualifies him as a sell high candidate… Read the rest of this entry »

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Schmuck Bait: Buy Low Sell High, Week 1

Jason Kidd is a nice buy-low target.  His wife has nothing to do w/ this article but she's, uh, wearing a bikini.  (SI)

Jason Kidd is a nice buy-low target. His wife has nothing to do w/ this article but she, uh, looks not so bad. (SI)

A week into the season is plenty of time for people to start panicking about their teams.  It’s also a perfect time to make some sneaky trades.  And so, the first installment of Buy Low Sell High.  (I know, I know.  I’ll try to come up with a better name once my brain isn’t fried.)

As a bonus, I’ll throw in some salesman-y schmuck bait you can use with each player.

BUY LOW

Al Jefferson

He missed a good chunk of the pre-season due to a sore Achilles, and his minutes were limited the first couple games.  So, in a way, he’s still getting into basketball shape.  I know, because he’s sinking one of my teams right now.  But if the guy who owns Big Al in your league isn’t as patient, feel free to lob him an offer.

The schmuck bait: He’s one wobbly knee from imploding your entire season.  (This is actually true, but I like him to stay relatively healthy.)

Jason Kidd

Kidd hasn’t been a scorer in years, but he’s only made four shots in three games so far!  I’m not even expecting double-digit scoring from him, but if he can hit 1.X threes per game, his numbers will be pretty close to last year, when he was a top 10 player by totals.  And according to some of my readers, his owners are already getting antsy with his lack of 3’s/scoring, even though all the other numbers are there.

The schmuck bait: He’s old (i.e., fantasy finished).

Jose Calderon

A lot of people, including me, expected big things from Calderon this year after he took the summer off to improve his conditioning.  Looks like he should’ve spent more time getting acquainted with Hedo Turkoglu.  Here’s a telling stat: Calderon has already missed 4 FTs this year — more than all of last year.  To me, that would hint that this initial slow start is more mental than anything else.  It might take him a while to get used to Hedo, in which case you have time to decide whether he’s worth the “gamble”, but I’d act sooner than later.

The schmuck bait: He’s a Spaniard.  Just kidding.  He’s still unproven over an entire year as a go-to PG.

11/o6/09 UPDATE: Please see my Tough Questions post about Calderon to see exactly what I mean by “gamble”.

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Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Eye-Opening Lines from the Season’s First Full Night of Action

Although neither of them can jump anymore, one of these O'Neals might not be fantasy-finished just quite yet...  (NBAE)

Although neither of them can jump anymore, one of these O'Neals might not be fantasy-finished just quite yet... (NBAE)

Now that we’re done with those meaningless and (potentially) misleading eye-opening lines from the pre-season, how about some eye-opening lines from games that actually count.  In addition to looking at some lines from guys that are probably already rostered, I’ll look at (perhaps more importantly) lines from guys you want to keep an eye on.

First, a word of caution: While it can make or break your season if you land one of these game-changing free agents that went undrafted, something that can also make or break your season is dropping one of your sleepers before he pans out.  So, if you’re carrying dead weight, go ahead and jump on some of these guys.  Otherwise, just keep an eye on them and be ready to pounce (like, say, during the second quarter of their third consecutive solid game — sometimes you just can’t wait until that night).

Without further ado, some eye-opening lines from the season’s first full night of action (and a few from the first night too):

STARS

Gilbert Arenas

Sure, LeBron put up back-to-back monster lines, but that wasn’t the most eye-opening performance to me.  Even though I don’t own him in any leagues, it was still great to see Gilbert Arenas pour in 29 points with 9 assists in his season debut.  It’s certainly not a guarantee of anything, but still, nice to see.

Danny Granger

While Kevin Durant posted a line worthy of a fantasy first-rounder with 25 and 11, those who stuck with their guns and drafted Danny Granger must quietly be thrilled with his 31 points on 5 threes.  Again, it’s still early, but you geniuses may as well pat yourselves on the back (especially before Granger hurts himself).

BIGS

Nobody thrived more on opening night (and a half) than the League’s big men.  Some cases in point:

Brook Lopez poured in 27 and 15 with 5 blocks, and against Al Jefferson nonetheless.

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