Biggest winner: Howard has a chance to improve his value the most, but I still think the most valuable guy will be Mike Miller, as I could really see him controlling the ball for long stretches.  Meanwhile, with Haywood out of the picture (and perhaps Antawn Jamison to follow), Andray Blatche should be snatched immediately.  And although WAS should have little incentive to play him, Gooden is playing for his next contract and should be motivated (and possibly starting, depending on Jamison’s situation).

Keep an eye on: I’m not sure who will start at SG, but Nick Young should get plenty of touches.  JaVale McGee should also get more playing time.  He’s had some nice stretches but expect inconsistency.  Those in deep leagues should also track Dominic McGuire, who hasn’t done anything this year but was useful at the end of last season.

Biggest loser: Erick Dampier.  (He’s such an easy target that I feel bad picking on him, but if you Google those four words — biggest loser and Erick Dampier — you get over 1,400 hits.  Sad.)

Meanwhile, Butler’s role should be smaller in Dallas, although his efficiency might creep up playing alongside a better distributor in Jason Kidd and a better “floor-spreader guy” (I think that’s the technical term) in Dirk Nowitzki.  Overall, I think Butler will be more motivated because he’s going from a truly crappy/depressing situation in WAS to a title-contending (in theory) situation, so I’d at least expect some of the hustle/defensive numbers to creep up.

And since I’m having trouble making a decision in one of my leagues, I’ll solicit your opinions:

7 minutes in heaven? Seventh graders are getting more play than T-Mac is right now... (Getty Images)

In Week 8, some of the most important fantasy happenings occurred off the court, with several fantasy stars on the verge of returning to the court.  It also featured Superman returning to form, T-Mac getting “out-played” by seventh graders, and a possible new contender in the fantasy ROY race.

Lou Williams, Jameer Nelson, and Tyrus Thomas (and Marreese Speights)

Hopefully you heard some of my barking (as well as some of the guys on my message boards) and were quick enough to pick up Williams, Nelson, or Thomas over the past week.  Williams actually already returned to action with a subpar outing versus the Clippers, but with Allen Iverson out at least a week due to arthritis, Sweet Lou will have plenty of time to get back into form… and before we know it, Iverson will be the one adjusting to him instead of the other way around.

Meanwhile, Nelson is expected to return early in Week 9, while Thomas will likely return at the end of the week.  And another guy who returned to the lineup after an extended absence and has already turned in 3 solid (including one great) game is Marreese Speights.  With both Elton Brand and Samuel Dalembert healthy and playing decently, I’m not expecting too much consistency from Speights.  But if you need help at C, he’s definitely worth a look, and he’s only taken in 30% of Yahoo leagues right now.

By the way, if you missed out on any of the above guys, the next (mini) wave of injured guys returning includes Leandro Barbosa (expected to return around mid-to-late week) and in deeper leagues, Yi Jianlian (expected back mid-week).

Dwight Howard

Meanwhile, Superman returned to form, averaging 17 and 18 with 4.5 bpg in 4 games.  It’s no coincidence this Superman-esque stretch occurred after a Dec. 11 game at Phoenix in which the Suns went Hack-a-Howard and allowed D-12 to only get off 1 (yes ONE) field goal attempt.  I unsuccessfully tried to buy low on Howard all year in one H2H league where I already own Rajon Rondo and Andrew Bogut (FT% punt, anyone?), and that window has probably slammed shut for good now.  Oh well.

By the way, I happened to play against this same guy who owns D-12 in that H2H league this week and still managed to eke out a 5-3-1 win with a classic anti-D-12 strategy: targeting FT%, 3PM, AST, and STL; punting FG% and REB; and churning to go after one of his strong categories — BLK, which I ended up tying him in.  (I also happened to win TO.)  Just in case anyone has to face the reborn D-12 anytime soon…

Caron Butler

Thanks to a few fantasy-friendly matchups and an injury hampered (but still active) Antawn Jamison, Butler had possibly his best week of the year, averaging 18.5 and 7 with 3.3 spg and solid percentages in 4 road games.  Even with an expected drop in AST, I thought Butler had the all-around game (and track record playing alongside Gilbert Arenas in 06-07) to have a top 30 season this year.  Well, he needed a favorable schedule and injury to a teammate to have a top 30 week.  But is this a buy low point or a sell high point?  The safest thing to do is probably wait and see when Jamison gets healthy again, but if you can sell him (or get him) at a nice price, by all means go for it.

Brandon Jennings vs. Tyreke Evans (vs. Stephen Curry?)

The matchup of the two best real-life and fantasy rookies played out on Saturday night, so I was of course having a holiday dinner with my girlfriend’s parents (and I also failed to negotiate the rights to my own smart phone — so alas, no stat checking until later that night).  The box score didn’t feature anything too eye-opening, with Jennings chipping in 15, 6, and 9 while Evans delivered 24, 7, and 3.  In fact, that’s pretty much what both have been doing all year — Evans with better FG%, Jennings countering with AST, Evans stepping up his STL, Jennings coming back with 3′s, etc.

But in real life the game was much more exciting, and Evans may have delivered the perfect counter-punch to Jennings’ double-nickel in the real life ROY race, scoring the go-ahead bucket with 0.9 seconds left.

But in the fantasy race, we just might have a new contender in Stephen Curry, who had the best game of his career on Friday versus the Wizards with 30, 8, and 4, including 5 threes and 3 steals.  Don’t look now, but over the last month Curry is ranked #33 in Yahoo leagues by averages, averaging 14, 4, and 4 with 1.4 3pg and 2.5 spg.  I don’t believe in selling low on any of my players, but I’ve even been considering offering Russell Westbrook for Curry in a roto league where I need a boost in FG% without sacrificing too much elsewhere.  Just a thought; I’ll keep you posted if anything happens.

Other Week 8 Highlights

A couple fantasy “surprises” continue to roll.  Raymond Felton posted another top 50 week, punctuated by a studly 27, 9 and 7 line against the Knicks on Sunday.  Yes, the Bobcats were without Gerald Wallace the entire game and Stephen Jackson during crunch time, but Felton still hit 11-22 shots and only turned the ball over 3 times.  His efficiency continues to amaze me, and each week it looks more and more like a 45+ FG% might actually be possible…

Meanwhile, Danilo Gallinari might have had his best (real life, not fantasy… but also very solid in fantasy) game of the year in that same game on Sunday, chipping in 22 pts and 2/2/2 3pm/stl/blk, including the game-saving/winning block.  His starting spot seems pretty safe for now.

Also, don’t look now but the Knicks are 9-8 after a 1-9 start (and 6-2 in their last 8).  Looks like their D’Antoni’s decision not to sign AI has really inspired the team to play better ball.  Al Harrington has been a big part of that, but the two most important ingredients have been Chris Duhon (65% owned) and Wilson Chandler (76%).  Make sure both those guys aren’t available on waivers.  Jared Jeffries (3%) is also worth a look if you need help in the defensive categories.

And in other news…

Andre Miller is starting but not doing too much with the extra vote of confidence yet.

Jason Thompson is rapidly approaching center-eligibility (at least in Yahoo leagues).

And Tracy McGrady is spending less time on the court than seventh-graders spend locking lips in the closet on a Friday night.

WEEK 9 PICKUPS

If you missed out on Lou Williams (56% owned), Jameer Nelson (76%), or Tyrus Thomas (41%), check out Leandro Barbosa (54%) or Yi Jianlian (21%).  I’ve also already mentioned Marreese Speights (31%) and for deeper leagues Jared Jeffries (3%).  Here are some more potential short-term and long-term pickups.

Roy Hibbert (43%)

Given my man-crush on Hibbert, after he dominated Tim Duncan Saturday night (20 and 7 with 6 blk), I absolutely had to drop Tyrus Thomas (who I had just picked up) for him in one league.  (I already own Hibbert in all my other leagues.)  Just click on Hibbert’s name in the Tag Cloud to the right to see why, but mainly it’s because I think Hibbert will average close to a double-double with 2 bpg when all is said and done, with an added boost in points this next month while Danny Granger mends.

Omri Casspi wishes Gilbert Arenas a Happy Hanukkah by delivering a kosher facial. (Getty Images)

Omri Casspi (16%)

It looks like Casspi will be a fixture in the starting lineup for now, at least until Kevin Martin (and Francisco Garcia) return.  He contributed back-to-back 20-pt games in his first two starts, and Paul Westphal seems determined to keep him in the starting lineup for now, starting him at — get this — PF then SG then SF to see where Casspi best fits.  It doesn’t hurt that the Kings have gone 2-1 in those 3 games as well.

By the way, this move initially sent Spencer Hawes to the bench in what was likely a motivational ploy.  Hawes has since returned to the starting lineup, and I still own him in most my leagues, although as I mentioned in an earlier post I dropped him for Thomas (then Hibbert) in one league.  In other words, he should still be rostered in most formats.

Quentin Richardson (13%)

Yes, that’s right.  Q went 7-7 on 3′s against the Blazers Sunday.  The Heat need his defense to help spell Dwyane Wade from guarding the other team’s top wing player, and of course Q responds by hitting some 3′s too.  He’s just as likely to go 0-7 his next game, but I’d be willing to find out if I needed 3′s in a deeper league, especially with 1 of the Heat’s 3 games this week against the Knicks (Christmas day).

Delonte West (18%)

West’s minutes and production have steadily increased his last 3 games, culminating in an 18, 7, and 4 performance against the Mavs on Sunday.  I’m not sure whether the bigger fantasy story here is West’s increasing production, or Mo Williams’ sub-par last 3 games though…

Earl Watson (4%)

Not only do the Pacers have a nice 4-game schedule this week, but Watson started his second game of the year over T.J. Ford on Saturday and the Pacers nearly upset the Spurs.  Watson’s stats (3 pts, 5 ast) were nothing spectacular, but keep a close eye on this situation.

Tim Thomas (1%)

Thomas had a nice spot-start for Dirk Nowitzki on Sunday and might be worth a fantasy spot-start if Dirk can get the teeth kinks out of his elbow by the Mavs’ next game on Tuesday.

Other guys I’ve mentioned before and still like: Joel Przybilla (39%), C.J. Watson (17%), Anderson Varejao (47%), Martell Webster (12%), Jonas Jerebko (7%), C.J. Miles (3%), Josh Boone (4%).

Other guys to keep an eye on: Andray Blatche (38%), Jarrett Jack (35%), Jose Juan Barea (12%), James Harden (36%), Kyle Lowry (9%), Dorell Wright (3%), Willie Green (3%).

Marc Gasol is pleading for you to buy him for pennies on the dollar. (AP)

Marc Gasol

Just a couple weeks ago, Marc Gasol seemed untouchable, and in fact many of you put him on par with Al Horford in value according to a recent poll.  If you still value him that much, now is your chance to get him on the cheap.

Zach Randolph has been on an offensive tear recently, which has translated into bigger minutes, which has also translated into eating up some of Gasol’s REB stats and shot attempts this month.  Yes, that’s exactly what Z-Bo excels at, but he’s also playing a crazy 39 mpg this month, and his career high for a season is about 35 mpg, so I don’t think he can keep up this pace…

And of course, as I was writing the first part of this post Sunday night, Z-Bo had an off-night while Gasol went off for a big double-double on 7-7 shooting.  However, Gasol fell back to earth a little facing a tough front line in the form of Kendrick Perkins and Kevin Garnett last night, so hopefully his owner has already forgotten about his 16 and 15 performance from Sunday.  In other words, I think Randolph’s strong play as of late has definitely influenced Gasol’s stats.  And as Randolph gets more comfortable in MEM, Gasol will probably have trouble stringing monster double-doubles in a row.  But Gasol’s last 6-game stretch (excluding MIA) will probably end up being one of his worse ones all year, so if you can convince Gasol’s owner that those games represent his true value, you could land yourself a nice starting C.

The other variable to keep an eye on here is Hasheem Thabeet, who has totaled 9 blocks in his last two games.  Even if Thabeet can muster 20 mpg eventually (he was at 9 mpg in Nov and is currently at 14 mpg in Dec), Gasol should still get 30+ mpg, as they’re on the floor together for stretches.  I don’t think it will hurt Gasol’s overall numbers too much (otherwise I wouldn’t be mentioning Gasol here), but it could negatively impact Gasol’s bpg, which were already at a higher per-minute clip than last year.  Nonetheless, most of Gasol’s value comes in his efficiency and nice steals from the C spot a la Nene Hilario, so I’m still banking on a top 50 finish.

Anthony Morrow

As for Morrow, he was on an absolute tear before a death in the family.  He missed 2 games and hasn’t been the same in 4 games since he returned, shooting 27% from the field after topping 50% all year.  Part of it might be mental.  Part of it might just be the law of averages.  Either way, last year he shot 48% from the field, and since he’s such a pure shooter, he’s probably much closer to the 50% guy even if he can’t keep that pace up all year.

Another factor here might be CJ Watson’s recent emergence, which I keep raving about in my weekly pickup posts.  (Although I’m sure Don Nelson will start inexplicably benching him once you’ve picked him up.)  But like I mentioned in my last post, I still like Morrow to find his touch again even if Watson continues to excel.  To reiterate, they have very different roles on the team, with Watson a distributor and Morrow a gunner.

Even with his horrible 4-game stretch, Morrow is ranked #44 by averages over the last month, mainly based on the strength of his 2.4 3pg and amazing efficiency before these last 4 games.  He probably won’t end up that high, but if you can steal him away for an under-performing middle rounder like Mike Bibby, Ron Artest, or Boris Diaw, consider yourself lucky.

Channing Frye

Frye is an “Approach with Caution” guy to me.  I’ve been waiting for his shots to stop falling all year, as he’s never taken close to this many attempts (especially 3’s) his entire career.  But even when Robin Lopez came back, Frye kept getting big minutes and delivering.  His recent 4-game slump (where he’s still hit 4 3’s) is probably just a result of the law of averages, as he was on fire to start the year.  It might also be worth noting that two of those games came against Dwight Howard and Andrew Bynum/Pau Gasol, not exactly the easiest front lines to go up against.  The other two games came against Dirk Nowitzki and Nene Hilario/Kenyon Martin, some of the more mobile big men in the league (and thus guys who could contest Frye on the perimeter).

I’m a little wary of the inconsistency, but if you can stomach that, I think it’s still safe to expect an Andrea Bargnani-ish combination of 3′s/blk when all is said and done.  Factoring in decent percentages, Frye could still finish the year as a top 60 player, although please don’t overpay.

And speaking of Bargnani, I think he’s a great buy low candidate right now as well.  In fact, I just traded Aaron Brooks for him in one league.  He’s not even ranked in the top 100 over the last month after a sizzling start to the year, in large part because a sprained ankle and confidence issues.  But head coach Jay Triano still wants Bargnani to be aggressive, and anyone who noticed AB’s post-all star splits from last year (which is also when Triano came aboard) knows what AB is capable of.

Andrew Bynum

After his last few underwhelming rebounding games, Andrew Bynum might be the biggest prize on this list.  Yes, I know.  If you’re a regular reader of Fantasy Hoopster, I said Bynum would be at his rock bottom during Gasol’s first week back.  Well, I was wrong because after Bynum bounced back in Gasol’s second week, Drew took another downturn last (Gasol’s third) week.

But here’s a safe bet: Pau Gasol is not going to get 20 reb every night.  In fact, if you look at Gasol’s game log and Bynum’s game log, you’ll see Pau went through a similar rough rebounding stretch just before his back-to-back 20 reb outburst, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Bynum rebounds with a nice rebounding stretch eventually as well.  (See what I did there?  It’s called clever word play being a dork.)

Sure enough, if you look at both their game logs last year, you’ll notice they took turns dominating for games at a time.  So sadly, it doesn’t look like they’ll both be able to produce monster games on the same night.  But Bynum still averaged 14 and 8 with 1.8 bpg last year alongside Pau.  With improvements in both his offensive and defensive skill sets (and mpg), I think he can up those numbers to 16 and 8 with 2 bpg.  Add in his impactful FG% and solid FT% for a C, and that’s a top 30-40 finish.  If you need a reference point, check out Greg Oden’s ranking by Yahoo averages: 11 and 8 with 2.3 bpg and solid %s = #36.

In other words, I think this week is just one of those bad stretches for Bynum, and next week could very well be one of the good ones.  I might not trade a first, second, or even third-round draft pick for him, but if you can convince Bynum’s owner that Gasol has officially crushed his value, you might be able to steal him for a middle-rounder.

[And on a side note, Bynum is also getting majorly out-(offensive) rebounded by Gasol, which tends to happen when you become a black hole anytime anyone feeds you the ball... because it's kind of hard to rebound your own fallaway jumpers.  If/when Bynum becomes truly comfortable alongside Pau, hopefully his forced shot attempts will decrease, while his offensive rebounds, easy putback attempts, and maybe even assists might creep up again.  But this might just be wishful thinking...]

Don't call it a comeback, Brand's been here all year long. He's just finally making some noise. (Getty Images)

WEEK 4 RECAP

They’re Ba-aaack

Week 4 featured the return of several fantasy studs: Rashard Lewis, Devin Harris, Troy Murphy, and Pau Gasol.  (Thanks for playing, Ryan Andersen and Rafer Alston.  Here are some nice parting gifts…)

As for Murphy and Gasol, their fantasy impact is a little more complicated.  Murphy will definitely take away some of Roy Hibbert’s stats, but I think the young center will still be valuable contributing a near double-double with 2 bpg.  Meanwhile, if you didn’t sell high on Andrew Bynum before Gasol’s return, please don’t panic and let someone buy low on him these next few (or more?) games as he readjusts to Gasol.  19 and 11 might be a little much to expect, but he’ll be much better than 11 and 8 (his first game with Pau back).

On the flip side, Week 4 also saw some key injuries, including Jameer Nelson and Andrew Bogut.  If you’re looking for replacements, Jason Williams has had a couple decent games thus far, while Kurt Thomas/Hakim Warrick have each had a nice game (depending on the matchup) in Bogut’s absence.  (There are some more exciting pickups further below.)

They’re “Ba-aaack”

Week 4 also featured the “return” of two stud centers: Elton Brand and Al Jefferson. With Marresse Speights out of the way due to injury, Brand absolutely erupted, averaging 20 and 10 with 2.7/3.7 spg/bpg this week, good for the #2 ranking by averages in Yahoo leagues.  I’m not sure what to make of this unexpected outburst quite yet, as the 76ers lost two of those games and barely beat a new-look CHA team in the other game, but I’ll have my thoughts on whether Brand is a sell high or buy low guy shortly.

As for Jefferson, he put up back-to-back strong outings (in the form of 20 and 10 games) as well.  The most telling number here might be his 36 minutes played in a blowout loss to POR.  Looks like Big Al is finally getting his legs back.

ROY = Brandon Jennings.  Fantasy ROY = Not so fast…

Brandon Jennings has already bagged ROY honors, but Fantasy ROY is still up for grabs... (Getty Images)

In week 4, Tyreke Evans continued to give Brandon Jennings a run for fantasy rookie of the year.  Before missing his last game with a sprained finger, Evans was on a torrid 6-game run averaging about 24, 6, and 6.

WEEK 5 PICKUPS

First, just wanted to make sure I dotted my I’s and crossed my T’s.  These first six guys are likely not available in your leagues anymore, but before moving onto the pickups below, please make sure they’re already taken.  (Current % ownership in Yahoo leagues in parentheses)

Larry Hughes (68%)

Hughes has shown flashes of brilliance over the past few years, but they usually end after a week or so.  Under Mike D’Antoni, it looks like he’s flashed back to his fantasy prime back in WAS.  After 10 games, Hughes is flirting with that elusive 15, 5, and 5 status from the G-F spot, not to mention chipping in 1.3 3pg and 2.2 spg.  There are two stats that hint he might actually be able to keep this up (well, maybe everything but the 2+ spg): he’s averaging 34+ mpg, his most since his CLE days, and he’s hoisting 3.9 3-pt attempts per game, his most ever.

I keep waiting for Nate Robinson to eat into his minutes, and the addition of Allen Iverson would have certainly hurt Hughes as well, but neither seems to be happening for now, so unless you can score something great in a trade, I’d enjoy the ride.  (And by the way, if you already own him, I agree he’s a sell high candidate… but you have to own him before you can sell him.)

Chris Douglas-Roberts (60%) and Peja Stojakovic (69%)

Here are two guys at opposite points in their careers who are making the most of starting gigs due to injury.  Well, CDR had already posted a couple nice lines before Yi Jianlian got hurt, but he absolutely took over the offensive load for the Nets after Devin Harris’ injury.  Well, Devin returned Saturday night off the bench, and CDR still managed 24 pts on 19 shots.  This is scary, but it looks like CDR has a chance to at least maintain his 18 ppg this year.  Is it any wonder the Nets are 0-13?

Meanwhile, even though they obviously play different positions, Peja has been a huge beneficiary to Chris Paul’s injury.  Even though he doesn’t have CP3 setting him up anymore, the main reason is because Peja’s shot attempts have increased from below 10 per game to about 15 per game, translating into 20+ ppg over the four games Paul has missed.  I’m not exactly sure what will happen once CP3 returns, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Peja continuing to get at least 10 shots per game when that happens.

Rudy Fernandez (48%), Anthony Morrow (44%), and Stephen Curry (66%)

Just a friendly reminder, but here are three guys I mentioned in my last Pick Me Up post.  (You’ll notice Allen Iverson is no longer on this list.  And as long as AI isn’t a Knick — probably the only team desperate enough to start him — I’m not owning him.)  All three are benefiting from injury/trade, with Curry potentially benefiting from a Monta Ellis deal as well.

Now onto some more readily available guys…

Ben Wallace (47%)

Wallace is another guy (joining the ranks of Andrei Kirilenko and Jermaine O’Neal) who has seemingly found the Fountain of Youth this year.  He won’t help you on offense at all, but with his measly 1.7 FT attempts per game, he won’t hurt you as much as he did in the past.  And after a month of games, he looks like he has a legit chance at maintaining his 9+ rpg and 1.2/1.5 spg/bpg… especially if he can keep getting 30+ mpg.

Dahntay Jones (40%)

Here’s a guy who crushed the value of a popular preseason sleeper, Brandon Rush.  In 7 games as the starting SF, he’s averaging 19 and 5 with 1+ spg/bpg.  Keep an eye on this situation, as Murphy returned to action over the weekend, which will likely push Danny Granger to the SF spot again.  If Jones slides into that starting SG spot, Rush’s value drops even more (if that’s even possible), and Dahntay should probably be owned in more than 2/5 of leagues.

Mickael Pietrus (14%)

Pietrus is averaging 30+ mpg, 12.7 ppg, and 3.0 3pg in 3 games as the starting SF since Rashard Lewis returned.  Of course, he’s also shooting 9-13 from 3-pt range in that span, which is unmaintainable.  With Matt Barnes as a more-than-capable backup, it’s hard to recommend Pietrus with high confidence, but as long as he’s starting and getting minutes (it doesn’t hurt that the Magic are winning), he could be a nice play as he contributes a little everywhere.

James Harden (33%)

He's already on the Evite, but is James Harden finally ready to join the Class of '09 rookie PG party? (Getty Images)

Harden followed a 24 pt/6 3pm garbage time performance with a 25 pt with 4 3pm/stl performance in a more highly contested game versus WAS.  Maybe it’s just a hot 2-game stretch, or maybe Harden is finally turning the corner and playing up to the hype.  If he’s someone you’ve had your eye on, now is the time to pounce.  Although don’t be surprised if he’s back on waivers by week’s end.

Beno Udrih (40%)

While Tyreke Evans has gotten most of the attention post-Kevin Martin’s injury, Udrih has resurrected his fantasy career.  I’m not sure what happens to Udrih whenever Martin comes back, but he’s been very solid in his absence.  As a starter he’s quietly averaging 17 ppg and 5 apg with 1.3 3pg with great %s.  Martin is out at least 6 more weeks, so Udrih should probably be on more rosters.

Steve Blake (15%)

Blake was an unflashy yet highly productive fantasy play last season, and he’s slowly creeping back to that status, having averaged 2+ threes and 4+ assists in November (while average more mpg than Andre Miller).  He’s worth a look in deeper leagues if you need a PG.  Personally, I’d rather own him than Miller because of the threes.

Jared Dudley (19%)

Again, here’s another guy who’s not doing anything flashy, but he’s quietly a top 100 player (by Yahoo averages) because he hits 1.8 3pg and 1.2 spg.  His upside is limited with the talent on that team, but you could do worse on the end of your bench.

Ramon Sessions (33%)

I abandoned Sessions, one of my preseason sleepers before Jonny Flynn started impressing, in all my leagues long ago.  But if you’re looking for assists, Sessions has averaged nearly 5 over his last 5 games.

Luke Ridnour (7%)

With Michael Redd out of the lineup, Brandon Jennings has actually shifted over to SG much of the time with Ridnour running the point, including a 12-assist effort on Saturday night.  With Redd on the verge of returning, who knows what will happen to Ridnour’s minutes (Redd could spend more time at SF in the aforementioned arrangement, or he could squeeze Ridnour’s minutes altogether).  But if you’re desperate for a PG or are in a deep league, Ridnour’s worth a look.

Flip Murray (4%)

For some reason, Stephen Jackson’s arrival in CHA has caused Flip to catch fire, including a 31-point effort and a more well-rounded 17, 5, and 6 outing.  If anyone has theories, please let me know.  It’s most likely a coincidence, but keep an eye on the situation if it keeps happening.

Marco Belinelli (9%)

Before his latest goose egg, Belinelli had nailed 11 threes in a 4-game stretch.  He’s always been streaky, but if he can manage 24+ mpg like in that 4-game stretch, he might be worth owning in deeper leagues.

And finally, a look at some temporary rentals with long-term potential:

Will Bynum (42%) has been tearing it up lately with both Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince out.  Personally, I’d sell high if you can (by packaging him with someone else for an upgrade of that certain someone else).

Drew Gooden (25%) has been a double-double machine (even notching 3 blk against the Spurs) without Erick Dampier.  Once Dampier comes back, it will be interesting to see who starts, as Gooden was rumored to be the starter during the preseason.  Note: Both Gooden and Dampier’s strong play probably kills any (preseason) rumors of Dirk Nowitzki starting at C, gaining F-C status, and turning into the potentially most valuable player in fantasy this year.

J.J. Hickson (15%) has been a FG% machine with Anderson Varejao out of the lineup.  He’s certainly made the case for more playing time in CLE, but we’ll see what happens when both Varejao and Shaquille O’Neal return.

Ersan Ilyasova (13%) has made the most out of Michael Redd’s injury.  We’ll see if he can keep his spot in the rotation once Redd returns.

While most of the hype immediately after Chris Paul’s injury centered on Darren Collison (11%), Marcus Thornton (3%) has been slightly more relevant because of his 3-pt range.

It probably makes more sense to own Andres Nocioni (14%), but for those of you in deep, deep leagues, Omri Casspi (3%) and Donte Greene (1%) are worth a look after posting some solid lines without Kevin Martin.

"Aflac!" -Gilbert Gottfried, all de time (Scott Gries/Getty Images)

"When I had fun, I got criticized. So we’ll see what happens when I’m serious.” -Gilbert Arenas, Sept 2009 (AP/Haraz Ghanbari)

It just might be the single-most important decision affecting fantasy leagues this season.  And the answer’s right here: I’m drafting Gilbert Gottfried in the third round of my Fantasy Jewish Comedians League.  Think about it.  He’s basically the Jason Kidd of Jewish comedians, consistently delivering across multiple platforms: television, film, even video games.

“Thanks for wasting my time, buddy.  But where the hell do I draft Gilbert Arenas?”  I’m glad you asked.  I’m also glad Erik over at Points in the Paint already answered this question, because it makes my life a whole lot easier.

So what’s the point of this article?  First, I’m going to touch on one great point Erik makes that I also alluded to in my Draft Rankings, as well as pose two important questions you should ask yourself on draft day.  And I’ll throw in a case study… FOR FREE!  (By the way, you’ll see I have Gilbert ranked #39.  I’ll explain why I have him down there, but you’ll probably have to draft him much earlier if you want him.)  Second, I’m going to touch on “The World” part of Gilbert vs. The World.  Namely, how does Agent 0′s return affect two other fantasy studs: Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison?

THE GILBERT PART

Okay.  This is it.  The third round’s about to begin.  Gilbert’s still on the board.  What do you do?  For me, it comes down to two (okay, three) questions:

a) Who else is on the draft board?

b) Who else is on my team?  (And who else do I want on my team later?)

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Third round. You're on the clock. What do you do? WHAT. DO. YOU. DO. (20th Century Fox)

When the third round (aka “my chance to draft Gilbert”) comes up, I think the first question you should ask is “Who else is on the draft board?“  Since I don’t think he’ll have a totally disastrous year where he misses 60+ games, there are two likely scenarios for Gilbert’s much-ballyhooed return to the NBA and fantasy basketball: Either he blows up and regains Top 10 fantasy status… or he regains near-All Star form, is inconsistent, misses a game every couple weeks, but is still a Top 50 player.

Gilbert’s average draft position (ADP) in Yahoo leagues is 31.5, which puts him almost smack in the middle of those two projections.  One way to look at it is, half of you think he’ll be a Top 10 guy again.  Half of you think otherwise.  To be honest, I’ve got no clue.  I even briefly contemplated taking him with the 13th pick of a 12-team H2H league, knowing that he’d be gone by my next pick, #36.  Now, that’s much too early considering Gilbert’s upside, but it gives you an idea of the kind of tricks Gilbert can play on you on draft day.

However, there’s one recent example that might point towards the latter, less exciting scenario: Dwyane Wade circa 2007-08.  When we last left Wade in his monster 2006-07 season, he was coming off a pair of surgeries to repair his dislocated left shoulder and left knee.  In 2007-08, a lot of fantasy managers took a (slight) risk and drafted Wade in the late first round, upon which Wade proceeded to slowly sabotage all their fantasy hopes and aspirations en route to missing 31 games and delivering sub-Wade numbers when he did play.

I know, I know.  Different player, different situation.  And all the reports out of Gilbertology, D.C., have Gilbert coming back better than ever.  It’s just something to think about, especially when you consider: Who else is on the draft board?  Or more specifically, who are some sure bets on the draft board that I wouldn’t be embarrassed to pick up even if Gilbert explodes?

Okay, there’s no such thing as a “sure bet” in fantasy, but here are some guys with higher ADP’s (going later) than Gilbert in Yahoo leagues:

David West
Rashard Lewis
Troy Murphy
Josh Smith
Rajon Rondo
Kevin Martin

Like I said, no such thing as a sure bet.  Each of these guys, with the exception of West, has their own issues this year.  10-game suspension, coming off a career-year, injuries, etc.  But I think they’re all safer bets than Gilbert over 82 games (or even 72 for Lewis).  Feel free to check out my Draft Rankings for further analysis on each guy.

So, after you’ve figured out who else is on the draft board and determined you still like Gilbert best, the next question(s) you should ask are “Who else is on my team?  (And who else do I want on my team later?)”

Erik over at Points in the Paint does a great job answering this question.  Specifically, he advises that you draft Arenas only if you also drafted a Top 5 guy.  I agree with that in concept, but with some slight tweaks.  (And if you’re reading, Erik, feel free to clarify anything I misinterpreted.)

It all comes down to managing risk.  And usually Top 5 guys are not only the best players, but also the most consistent ones.  And I totally agree when it comes to CP3, LeBron, Durant, and Kobe.  However, it might be just a tad risky to draft Wade, a Top 5 guy, and Arenas, considering both of their injury pasts.  Also, I think I’d be comfortable drafting Arenas with someone like Dirk, who’s just so consistent, or Deron on my team.  Or even Dwight Howard, depending on my strategy (although that one could get tricky).

And speaking of managing risk, if you take Arenas in the third round, it will also affect who else you want to draft later.  For instance, someone I’m targeting this year is Andrew Bynum.  But there’s no way I’m taking Arenas and Bynum on the same team.  (Well, not unless I reeeeeally manage my risk well everywhere else…)  Other potentially risky players you might have to avoid later if you draft Arenas:

Baron Davis
Jameer Nelson
Monta Ellis
Marcus Camby
Nene Hilario
Andrew Bogut

(Disclaimer: If you do draft Arenas, however, I’d still take risks in the last couple rounds, where’s it’s all about upside anyway.)

THE ‘THE WORLD’ PART

As for Butler and Jamison, I have them ranked at #22 and #30, respectively.  (Notice, both before Agent 0.)  And I like them to finish in the Top 30 regardless of whatever year Arenas has.  Of course, certain stats will be helped or hindered depending if Arenas plays or is a (gulp) surprise DNP.  First, let’s look at both of their averages during Arenas’ last two healthy seasons:

Jamison actually took and made more 3’s when Arenas was healthy than when Arenas wasn’t (1.5 and 1.4 the last two years), likely because Agent 0 freed him up for more open shots.  His PTS might decline a little this year, but you’re paying for consistent near-double-doubles and 3’s from the PF spot with Jamison anyway.  If he returns to those 06-07 numbers, I like him to crack the Top 30.

For Butler, he was pretty good those years as well, and more importantly, each of those years he improved considerably from the previous season.  I think his PTS will dip as well this year.  And more worrisome, his AST will likely drop from the 4.3+ apg he enjoyed the last couple years.  However, Butler added a 3-pt shot the last two years (1+ per game) and I see no reason why that won’t continue.  Butler’s biggest question mark is actually his health, but with the Wizards back in playoff contention, that should mean more motivation for him to stay healthy.  In theory.  Considering Butler was already improving year-after-year before Arenas was injured, I expect his numbers to fall somewhere between those 06-07 stats and the Top 10 (by averages) stats he put up the last couple years.

SO WHAT?

• I like Butler and Jamison to enjoy Top 30-caliber fantasy years, whether Arenas regains his Top 10 form or not.
• If you’re thinking of drafting Arenas, just make sure you’re not passing on a “sure bet” who’s still on the draft board, and also make sure you minimize risk on the rest of your roster.
• And since you’ve read this far, here’s a bonus tip: If you do land Gilbert, it might be worth picking up a cheap insurance policy later (in certain league formats, especially if your team roster is big enough).  Hint: His name is Randy Foye.

CP3 or LeBron? Who knows. But Homer Simpson could whoop Peter Griffin any day (©Fox Broadcasting)

Simpsons or Family Guy?

Tupac or Biggie?

Transformers or G.I. Joe?

Easy.  Simpsons, Biggie, and G.I. Joe (the originals, not the remakes).

But when it comes to CP3 or LeBron, my head hurts.  It’s one of fantasy basketball’s most basic questions, even though only 1 out of every 10 or 12 of us have to make this difficult decision for any given league.  I heard it asked several times this past weekend alone, so I figured I’d give it some more attention.

The short answer?  Pick who you like better.  Yeah.  That’s my sage advice.  These two guys are so far out in the lead, fantasy-wise, that you can’t really go wrong with either.  (Well, Wade wasn’t too far behind last year, but he’s also more of an injury risk.)  So if you like your top guy to flirt with triple-doubles on a nightly basis, go with LeBron.  If you want your guy to have a legit shot at a quadruple-double any given night, go with CP3.  Wow, that was an easy article to write!

Except… oh yeah… the long answer.  Well, the long answer depends on a couple things, namely a) the numbers and b) your league format.  Geeks, buckle up your seat belts!

THE NUMBERS

Perhaps all we really need to do is look at CP3 and LeBron’s stats from last year, as they’re pretty indicative of what these guys have been doing the last few years.

LeBron has a clear edge in 4 categories: 3PM, PTS, REB, BLK.  Paul has a clear edge in 3 categories (FT%, AST, STL) and a slight edge in 2 (FG%, TO).  At first glance, it might seem that LeBron is the favorite, having a clear edge in more categories.  But there’s another layer of meaning beneath the surface, and it has a lot to do with how difficult it is to accumulate certain stats.  (Non-mathletes, beware!  Just kidding, I’ll do my best to speak to those of you who don’t watch Battlestar Galactica.)

Josh Whitling over at that sports website (that also broadcasts a lot of sporting events on TV) did a pretty good analysis of the easiest and hardest categories to fill (bottom of the article).  Okay, I’ll admit those numbers are giving me a headache, and I even went to math camp one summer in high school.  (Don’t worry, I just gave myself a wedgie.)  But in general, the lower the numbers on that chart, the fewer the number of players who were able to deliver significantly higher than the league average of players’ season totals for that category.

Huuuuhhhhh?  Let me try to explain, or you can just skip a couple of paragraphs down.  For points, 79+19+5 = 103 players were at least one standard deviation above the league average for players’ total points last year.  The “5″ means that 5 guys were especially studly in this category, and they were (in order) Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki, and Kevin Durant.  (Remember, these are player totals, not averages.)  CP3 just missed the cut for being especially studly by ranking seventh in total points last year.

Meanwhile, for assists only 58+11+4 = 73 players were at least one standard deviation above the league average for players’ total assists last year.  In this case, CP3 was far and ahead at the top of the list, while LeBron just missed the cut for being especially studly by ranking eighth in total assists.

What the heck does this all mean?  According to Whitling’s analysis, there are easy categories to fill, and hard categories to fill.

The easy categories:

Points, rebounds, threes, steals.

The hard categories:

FG%, FT%, assists, blocks.

By the numbers, CP3 schooled LeBron last year. In fact, CP3 loves basketball so much he even took one to his senior prom. (Layne Murdoch/NBAE via Getty Images)

Whitling didn’t discuss TO, but CP3 and LeBron were pretty much a wash there anyway.  If you look at the other 8 categories, 3 of the 4 categories LeBron has a clear edge in are so-called “easy” categories.  Meanwhile, 2 out of the 3 categories CP3 has a clear edge in are “hard” categories.  And for the one “easy” category that CP3 has a clear edge in, steals, he is by far the runaway leader in that category.  (If you look at the chart, you’ll see a “1″ under “4+ standard deviations” for steals.  Yup, that 1 is CP3.)

Then again, you might look at BLK, where CP3 only recorded 10 all year, and LeBron averaged over 1 bpg last year.  That seems like total domination, and in a hard category nonetheless.  Yes, LeBron dominates CP3 in this category, but he was only about 2 standard deviations above the league average for total blocks last year.  That’s nice, but it doesn’t compare to the 4+ standard deviations that CP3 dominates the entire league in for steals.

I could go through an analysis of CP3 vs. LeBron for every single category, but I’ll just let Yahoo and ESPN do the work for me.  If you look at the player raters (by player totals) for each site for the 08-09 season, Chris Paul is ranked above LeBron on both.  And here’s the kicker: CP3 only played in 78 games last year.  LeBron played in 81.  CP3 had a bigger statistical impact than LeBron playing 3 less games.  That’s hard to argue against…

THE FORMAT: Roto vs. H2H leagues

…but it is indeed arguable, depending on the league format.  If you’ve fished around my site, you may have noticed I’m a huge fan of NBA scheduling and its impact on H2H fantasy leagues.  Specifically, I’m a huge fan of owning players that play on a lot of Off-Days — those days where there isn’t much NBA action going on, but there are a few teams playing.  And more often than not, they’re the same teams playing over and over again.  (Note: You want to own players on these teams to maximize your ‘games played’ each week in H2H leagues.)  Here’s an excerpt from my article on Off-Days — “Draft Strategy: Don’t hate the player, hate the team“:

"I can't believe this guy just quoted himself. And picked G.I. Joe over ME." (Maxim)

“This Off-Day schedule should help in making some difficult first-round decisions in particular.  While the fantasy gods have tried to level the playing field in the fantasy playoffs by giving both LeBron’s Cavs and CP3’s Hornets only 11 games (as opposed to 14 for HOU, MIL, OKC, SA, TOR, WAS), LeBron has the clearly favorable Off-Day schedule during the regular season.  In fact of the 14 days on the NBA calendar with only 2 games in action, the Cavs play on 8 of those days.  8 out of 14.  Meanwhile, there are 11 other teams that don’t play on any of those days.  (The Hornets play on 1.)  Although CP3 is statistically the most valuable player in the league, that’s enough for me to take LeBron H2H.  Although I’m sticking with CP3 in roto.”

There you have it.  If you’re just looking at 82 games, played on any days, CP3 is more valuable than LeBron.  But in H2H, they don’t play those 82 games on just any days.  See, there’s this schedule those suits in the NBA head office concocted to maximize the exposure of its posterchilds.  And apparently, the league considers LeBron much more of a posterchild than CP3.  In other words, when CP3 and the Hornets play, the NBA schedule is usually going to be pretty full that night, which means you’ll likely have your third or fourth best guard or forward on the bench and not contributing to the cause.  However, when LeBron plays on those Off-Days, it frees up a roster spot on the other days where the schedule is pretty full so that you don’t have to sit your third or fourth best G or F.  In other words, during those weeks that LeBron plays on more Off-Days, it’s essentially like getting free games against your opponent.

Your point is?

While I haven’t done the exact mathematical analysis (you’re welcome, world), I believe these extra games on LeBron-led fantasy teams outweigh the advantage that CP3 holds in statistics alone.  At least in H2H leagues.  But for roto, it’s CP3.

If you drafted Noah in the third round of your 56-team league, congratulations. And seek help immediately (Chris McGrath/Getty Images)

Fantasy drafts are all about getting value.  If you land Derrick Rose on your squad, that’s great.  If you land Derrick Rose on your squad in the second round?  Only great if you’re in a 24-team league.  When labeling people “busts,” I’m mainly trying to point out guys that are probably not going to provide good value for their average draft position (ADP).  So if you happen to draft one of the guys below, it’s not necessarily a bust if you drafted him late enough.

GUYS WHO SHOULD BE ON TEAMS, JUST NOT YOURS

Kevin Garnett, BOS, PF and Tim Duncan, SA, PF, C

Obviously, if these guys slide to the third round, maybe even early second, you probably have to take them.  But both are on the downside of their careers.  Although KG says he’s healthy, his minutes will likely be monitored all year.  As for TD, his minutes have already decreased in 7 of the previous 8 seasons.  It doesn’t help that both BOS and SA added depth to their rosters in the offseason, BOS with Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels and SA with Antonio McDyess, Richard Jefferson, and Theo Ratliff.  Although Daniels and Jefferson aren’t even bigs, their scoring is likely intended to take some pressure off Garnett and Duncan.

Mehmet Okur, UTA, PF, C

Lost in the Carlos Boozer vs. Paul Millsap battle is the fact that they’re not the only ones affected by a crowded frontcourt in UTA.  In fact, Okur’s minutes already trended downward month-to-month last year, with lows in March and April (when both Boozer and Millsap were healthy).  News out of UTA also has it that Andrei Kirilenko put on some weight this summer, supposedly for durability reasons, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the post at some point.  And it doesn’t help that Okur’s 3PA have declined the last three seasons (although his 3P% has increased).  If you’re looking for a 3-pt shooting C, there are plenty of cheaper options: Al Harrington, Andrea Bargnani, and Rasheed Wallace to name a few.

Mike Conley, MEM, PG

This is actually an area of debate among fantasy basketball enthusiasts.  Who will be impacted more negatively by Allen Iverson’s arrival in MEM — O.J. Mayo or Mike Conley?  Well, after finishing his rookie year strong, Conley was expected by many (including me) to kick off his sophomore campaign in style.  Enter O.J. Mayo, and Conley couldn’t get his act straight until his backup, Kyle Lowry, went down with an injury in February (and was subsequently traded).  Who knows, really, but in their short history together, Mayo seems to do more acting than reacting (see: Rudy Gay’s stats last year), so my guess is that while both will be affected by AI, Conley will suffer more growing pains.

Lou Williams, PHI, PG, SG

How does someone make both your sleeper and bust lists?  When the hype isn’t justified.  I would make a comparison to the U.S. housing market, but that’s probably a little harsh.  Williams’ numbers will definitely improve across the board, but when you hear the new coach talking about letting Thaddeus Young initiate the offense every so often, it’s not exactly a vote of confidence in your starting PG’s ball-distributing skills. He should get around 5 apg just from handling the ball so much, but he probably wont justify his draft position.

The bad news: he's a shoot-first PG. The good news: no subcommittees will be needed for this crisis

Josh Howard, DAL, SF

Howard is slated to slide in to the starting SG spot this year, which actually adds to his value because of the position flexibility.  But the reason he’s sliding over is the reason he’s on this list.  Shawn Marion.  They’re both expected to run the wing next year with Jason Kidd at the helm.  That doesn’t seem so bad for one’s fantasy prospects.  However, there’s a couple other guys that might want to take some shots too.  Dirk and Jason Terry, anyone?  Terry’s fantasy value is in his 3′s, which I think he’ll continue to hit.  But Howard’s value is in his scoring and overall contribution, the latter of which also happens to be Marion’s strength.  Something’s gotta give.

Al Thornton, LAC, SF

It’s not like Thornton is being taken too early in drafts this year.  But there will be some people who just look at his stats from last year — 17 and 5 with almost 1 STL/BLK — and think they’ve found a steal in the tenth round.  Hell, they might even look at Thornton’s progression from his rookie year and reach for him even earlier.  Of course, they’d be forgetting that the Clippers have a ton of talent joining/rejoining the team this year.  Blake Griffin, Chris Kaman, and Baron Davis just to name a few.

BECAUSE I NEED TO MAKE AN EXAMPLE OF SOMEONE

Blake Griffin, LAC, PF

Yes, I do believe Griffin will probably finish the season ranked lower than where he’s drafted — even if he puts up 16 and 8 — because people are just drafting him so early.  But the main reason he’s on this list is because I needed to make an example out of a rookie.  Rookies are generally grossly overrated on draft day.  Add in the fact that last year’s rookie class was so good (in fantasy and real life), and people will probably really overvalue rookies this year.  Even if rookies do end up panning out, you usually have a chance to grab them off waivers after their original owner (who is probably pissed they’re not performing at an eighth-round level, where they drafted them) finally drops them in December.  See: Russell Westbrook, 2008.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST

Hey, it’s kind of fun bustin’ on people.  But if you’re going to dish it, you have to be willing to take it.  So my final bust is none other than…

Fantasy Hoopster, various intramural and rec teams, SG

One thing fantasy hoopster has working in his favor is his work ethic.  This guy never gives up on a play, even after the whistle blows.  However, his face is buuuuusted.  Slam.

These rankings are based on a standard 9-category format, with a slight leaning towards H2H leagues, although differing strategies for roto leagues are noted when applicable.