Posts Tagged Chris Paul
Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Why trading LeBron* might deliver you a H2H Championship
Posted by fantasy hoopster in Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Strategy, Fantasy Basketball Trades on February 24, 2010
This will be my last post for the next couple weeks, as I’m going on vacation. (Later, suckas!) But before I leave, I just wanted to point out an important date coming up in 10 days: March 4, the trade deadline for most Yahoo leagues. And if you own LeBron James, this might be your last chance to trade for Kevin Durant.
Hold on, WTF?!?!
I’ll explain further down below, but first: If you’re in a H2H league — and this post is primarily for H2H leaguers — this is your last chance to make your team as bulletproof as possible for the fantasy playoffs. I’ve already done so for my own teams, but I suggest you click forward on your team’s weekly schedule to see if there are any particular weeks where the NBA scheduling gods have screwed you over. These next 10 days are your best bet to make the schedule work in your favor.
Even if CP3 comes back at full strength and LeBron continues to dominate, Durant might be the fantasy MVP of H2H leagues. (Getty)
For example, skip ahead to Week 22 (Mar 22-28), the first or second week of most leagues’ fantasy playoffs. You might notice that all (or almost all) of your players play on Mon/Wed/Fri/Sun, while nobody (or close to nobody) plays on Tues/Thur/Sat. Well, if you’re only allowed to start 6, 8, or even 10 players per day, that means some of your players — maybe even some of your studs — might be riding the bench on Mon/Wed/Fri or Sun of that week.
Somehow, that’s what happened in one of my leagues, and I partially corrected the situation by making a trade I probably would’ve done anyway, by shipping out Al Jefferson and Brandon Jennings for Nene Hilario and Mike Miller.
Let’s ignore the fact that Big Al has been losing minutes to Darko (Darko?!) Milicic lately, or that Jennings’ FG% has amazingly declined every single month, or that Josh Howard is out for the year, perhaps rejuvenating Miller’s season. Even if the players involved were exactly even, I just gained 3 extra games for that week because Miller has a Tues/Wed/Fri/Sat sked that week, while Nene has a Tues/Wed/Fri/Sun sked. Meanwhile, Big Al and Jennings both have Mon/Wed/Fri/Sun skeds, like nearly everyone else on my squad, and I possibly wouldn’t even have used either that week. (This particular league only has 6 starting spots per day.) In other words, I just made my road to a three-peat in this league a little bit more manageable. (Yes, that’s me kissing my own ass.)
Every league has different settings, so check to see when your playoffs start. The first round is usually Week 22. Before the season began, I actually did an analysis of which teams have the best playoff schedules — factoring in both total games played and if these games occur on “Off-Days”, or days with only a few games on the NBA schedule. (Although, again, double-check your own schedule against the NBA schedule to see where you need help.) This might help you get started though:
BEST PLAYOFF SCHEDULES
[Note: The specific numbers below are for leagues with playoffs from Mar 22 to Apr 14. Apparently the Yahoo default is Mar 15 to Apr 4 this year. Most of this still applies, but use it as a general guide, and I'll point out any big discrepancies. For games by week (without the Off-Days), check out Basketball Monster's Schedule Grid.]
Chicago — plays 13 times over the last 3.5 weeks, and in leagues where you can only start 6-8 per night, CHI is especially useful as they have games on 3 Off-Days, 2 of which are during the finals. How can you use this info for your benefit? Well if you’re ballsy, buy low on Joakim Noah. He’s a gamble, but if you’ve already secured a first round bye (and even more time for him to heal), he might be worth it.
There's a good chance all of the guys above will be in play during the fantasy playoffs. (Getty
Dallas — plays 13 times with 3 Off-Days. I’ve been targeting Jason Kidd for a while…
[Note: In leagues where the playoffs begin Mar 15: DAL only has 2 games the first week. In other words, only make a deal for Kidd if you're almost guaranteed of a first round bye.]
Houston — plays 14 times with 1 Off-Day. As Trevor Ariza becomes option #3 or 3.5 in that HOU offense, I like his efficiency to increase, making him a potentially cheap addition this late in the season. Kevin Martin is a good buy low target as well.
Washington — plays 14 times with 1 Off-Day. By the way, yes, this fantasy-friendly playoff schedule is yet another reason why I’ve been so big on Andray Blatche. When your opponent scrambles for spot starts from guys like David Andersen in Week 22, you’ll especially enjoy Blatche’s double-doubles.
Milwaukee, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, and Toronto — all play 14 times, but none on Off-Days.
Which brings us back to our initial topic: Why trading LeBron* might deliver you a H2H Championship. Well, that asterisk has Durant’s name written all over it. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that KD will be on a higher percentage of H2H champion rosters than LBJ. OKC’s fantasy playoff schedule is a big part of the reason; keep reading for the other half of the story…
[Note: In leagues where the playoffs begin Mar 15: WAS, HOU, and SA are the only teams to play 4 games each week.]
WORST PLAYOFF SCHEDULES
Cleveland and New Orleans — they both only play 11 times over the last 3.5 weeks. But it’s not like you’d ever trade LeBron away… Right? Well, maaaaybe for Durant? Talk about ballsy, but 3 extra games over the entirety of the playoffs — one extra game per week — just might be worth it. (Although in fairness, this is more like comparing 3 LeBron games + 1 ‘To be determined’ game vs. 4 Durant games. But on the other hand, if you did decide to trade LeBron for Durant, you could probably get a pretty nice upgrade on another player — probably a PG to make up for the assists. So many factors…)
[Note: In leagues where the playoffs begin Mar 15, CLE actually has a 4-game week for the first week, whereas OKC only has a 3-game week. However, those of you with LeBron probably have a first round bye anyway. So, for rounds 2 and 3 of your playoffs, you're actually comparing 3 LBJ games to 4 KD games each week.]
Also, New Orlean’s hideous fantasy schedule, including only 4 games during the finals (one and a half weeks in most leagues) is one reason why I didn’t gamble and trade for Chris Paul.
[Note: In leagues where the playoffs begin Mar 15, NO actually has a nice schedule, starting with a 4-game week. While CP3 is a risky play for that week, he does have a nice 4-game week in the finals for these leagues. If you have a first-round bye, Kidd or CP3 are nice gambles, with Kidd being safer of course.]
MIXED BAG PLAYOFF SCHEDULES
Denver — only plays 12 times, but 4 of those games come on Off-Days, including 2 during the finals. Again, the Off-Days are more important in leagues starting less than 10 players per night, but this is a big reason why I targeted Nene in that specific league.
[Note: In leagues where the playoffs begin Mar 15, DEN is a great play.]
Portland — only plays 11 times, but 2 of those games come on Off-Days.
[Note: In leagues where the playoffs begin Mar 15, POR is still tricky, with only 8 games over 3 weeks, but 2 of those games on Off-Days. Meanwhile, ORL is also tricky, with only 9 games over 3 weeks, but 2 of those games on Off-Days as well.]
And here, again, is the Off-Days chart, if I haven’t made this confusing enough already. (No, this isn’t a Verizon 3G coverage chart. “4G” means the team is playing on a night with only four NBA games on the schedule. For example, take Week 1 of the fantasy playoffs (Week 22 overall, NOT Week 21). Of Dallas’ 4 games that week, it plays one of them on a night with only 4 games on the schedule and another on a night with only 3 games on the schedule.)
Happy shopping.
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Week 17 Recap (Snatch Blatche) and Week 18 Pickups
Posted by fantasy hoopster in Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Pickups, Fantasy Basketball Strategy on February 21, 2010
Week 17 was all about the trades. It saw the emergence of a perennial sleeper candidate (or two), the triumphant (at least for now) return of a former first rounder, and the early deaths of some promising fantasy seasons… all the result of big-time trades. The Recap:
Not to rain on T-Mac's parade, but another former Magic/Rocket, Steve Francis, also had a solid Knick debut with 16, 5, and 4. Just saying... (Getty)
Cavs lose! Cavs lose! Cavs lose!
That’s right, the new-look Cavs are 0-3 after acquiring Antawn Jamison. Is it the curse of Big Z? Or is it a hex of fantasy owners of Jamison, Ilgauskas, J.J. Hickson, and Anderson Varejao? Of course, the trade had obvious fantasy ramifications (basically, it sucked for all the guys mentioned above), but why is the losing streak so important? Because it means the Cavs and Lakers are in a near-dead heat for the top record in the NBA… which is great news if you own guys like LeBron or Kobe, who probably can’t afford to rest late into the season as the race for home court advantage comes down to the wire.
(Meanwhile, Jamison put up a dud in his first game but bounced back on Sunday. All those other bigs in CLE? I’m not sure they’ll ever bounce back.)
T-Mac + D’Antoni = WTF
If you look at my rankings of the biggest trade deadline winners (and losers), I had Tracy McGrady ranked near the top of the second tier (although of course qualified that by saying he had the biggest upside of anyone on the list). Well, he made his case for being ranked near the top of the first tier in his first game as a Knick, going off for 26, 4, and 5 with great percentages. Hell, he even shocked himself, as he didn’t expect to play more than 20 min and was admittedly exhausted by the end of the OT game.
I’ve always said the main reason I would own McGrady would be to sell high on him after a hot streak. Well, this might be the right time if you can get a good bounty in return. However, Mike D’Antoni has said the Knicks are going to run the rest of the way (See: Wilson Chandler starting at PF instead of SG, where he has started all year). And with T-Mac playing nice and saying he’s willing to come back to NY at a discount next year, D’Antoni just might keep running him out there for 30+ mpg to build chemistry. Because of his injury risk, I’d be inclined to sell high, but don’t sell yourself short.
Fantasy ROY Race
First it was Tyreke Evans vs. Brandon Jennings. Then it was Evans vs. Stephen Curry. Now is it Curry vs. Darren Collison? Okay, that’s an overstatement. But over the last three weeks, it’s been pretty close:
| FG% | FT% | 3PM | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | |
| Stephen Curry | .434 | .933 | 2.2 | 18.4 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 4.1 |
| Darren Collison | .473 | .829 | 1.1 | 19.7 | 4.7 | 9.8 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 4.9 |
Of course, when Chris Paul returns, this race ends, but it just goes to show how valuable both have been over the last three weeks, and how valuable Curry will be the rest of the year.
WEEK 18 PICKUPS
I’m going to steal from myself and just reiterate some of the biggest trade deadline winners, with some slight adjustments given 3 days-worth of new info.
First of all, trade deadline winners like Andray Blatche (62%) , Tyrus Thomas (63%), T-Mac (74%), and Josh Howard (76%) have already cleared the 50% ownership mark in Yahoo leagues and will thus be excluded. (I like them in that order by the way.) The rest:
Casspi & Butler. Ambiguously gay photo, unambiguously solid fantasy pickups. (Getty)
Omri Casspi (33%)
Casspi posted 15, 5, and 3 with 3 steals in his first game with the new-look Kings. Nothing flashy, but he should get relatively consistent minutes in SAC the rest of the way, as he and Evans are the clear building blocks of that team’s future.
JaVale McGee (17%)
It’s tough to find 11 ppg, 7.3 rpg, and 2.7 bpg off the FA list, but that’s exactly what McGee has delivered in 3 post-trade starts… and all while playing with a sprained wrist.
Rasual Butler (31%)
He can be streaky, but right now he’s streaking the right direction with 17 treys in his last 5 games. It might take some time, but with Al Thornton out of the way and Travis Outlaw’s indefinite return, Butler could slowly make his was off this list by clearing the 50% hurdle.
C.J. Watson (18%)
Watson has reemerged with Monta Ellis starting to burn out. Don Nelson recently stated he would not be running guys out for 40+ mpg sometime soon, which means Watson should/might start getting consistent playing time again. So while I wouldn’t expect the 27, 4, and 4 with great percentages and ~2 treys/stl per game that Watson posted last week, I’d still expect useful fantasy stats.
DeAndre Jordan (5%)
Jordan had a mixed bag of results in the Clips’ first 3 games without Marcus Camby, averaging 8 and 8 with 2.3 bpg. Those numbers might not be worth taking on his atrocious FT%, but if you’ve already punted that category, he’s a nice pickup. If not, approach with caution. (Also keep in mind that Drew Gooden has decided not to take a buy-out and will stay with the Clips. Obviously Gooden cares about winning and not living in sunny southern California…)
Sergio Rodriguez (9%) and Eddie House (13%)
Rodriguez was the hot pickup after whispers that he might start in New York. And even though he had a lackluster debut, he’d still be a big catch running the Knicks’ new old up-tempo offense. Meanwhile, House — who has played and excelled for D’Antoni before — stepped right in and had a huge first game as the Knicks’ super-6th man. Looks like they both have a chance to make a splash in NY, but just remember that Rodriguez has a real chance to average 8+ apg if/when he steps into that starter’s role before you give up on him.
Keep an eye on… everyone from my trade deadline post, with some tweaks:
Taj Gibson (24% — I’m slightly downgrading him from my previous list because Joakim Noah has already returned; check Noah’s status and think about selling high on Gibson if Noah’s foot starts feeling better), Nate Robinson (52% — been dropped so much he might actually be available; keep an eye on his new role in BOS), Al Thornton and Hakim Warrick (45% and 14% — slight upgrades after debuts on new squads), Jonas Jerebko (9%), Shannon Brown (6% — check Kobe’s status), Mario Chalmers (33% — check Rafer Alston’s status), and last but not least, Anthony Tolliver (6%)
Loading ...Week 16 Recap (That was short) and Week 17 Pickups
Posted by fantasy hoopster in Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Pickups, Fantasy Basketball Strategy, Fantasy Basketball Trades on February 15, 2010
WEEK 16 RECAP
After a shortened week and a lackluster dunk contest, I have to admit the All Star game itself was kind of exciting, at least for an exhibition game. You could tell the 108,000+ spectators helped to motivate the players (or distract, in the case of one Deron Williams).
Hmm, did anything else happen last week? Well, there was that trade. And oh yeah, Stephen Curry put up a ridiculous triple-double (36, 10, and 13 with 7 treys) thanks to a buzzer-beating rebound with the help of one of the most clutch box-outs I’ve ever seen…by Anthony Tolliver (more on him below). Check out the 6:30 mark for the play:
In fact, Curry has been so impressive lately, I’m not even going to mention those two other guys until they show me they’re capable of making this a Fantasy ROY race again.
See, I told you Week 16 was short.
WEEK 17 PICKUPS
As has been the theme around here lately, most of these pickups will actually be speculative long-term adds based on trade rumors. Others will be named Anthony Tolliver. (p.s. Anthony Morrow and Darren Collison have both cleared the 50% ownership mark required for this list, but make sure neither are taken before continuing below.)
Andray Blatche (34%)
See my post from over the weekend. But essentially, with Brendan Haywood out of the picture and Antawn Jamison likely (but not surely) to follow, the door is open for Blatche to get 35+ minutes a night. In 4 games as a starter this year, Blatche is only averaging 11 ppg and 7.5 rpg with 1.8 bpg in 34 mpg, but that was as a starting PF playing alongside Haywood. Last year, he averaged 12 ppg and 6 rpg with ~1 spg/bpg in 28 mpg as a starting C without Haywood. Project that to 35 mpg, and those numbers come out to roughly 14 ppg and 8 rpg with 1+ spg/bpg. Add in the Wizards’ great playoff schedule in H2H leagues, and you want to own this kid.
Drew Gooden (28%)
I also like Gooden’s value to take a step up as he’ll get more consistent minutes in WAS (assuming he isn’t flipped to a contender). In fact, the only downside to owning Blatche will be seeing Gooden gobble up double-digit boards on certain nights, while Blatche only snatches 5 or so. That being said, I’d still prefer Blatche for his steals and blocks, but Gooden will be an excellent source of rebounds.
Anthony Tolliver (7%)
Curry and Tolliver probably won't lead Golden State to many W's this year. Good thing we live in a fantasy world. (Getty)
Gasp! What is this — a player who likely doesn’t stand to benefit from a trade on this list? Well, with the rate that Monta Ellis, Corey Maggette, and the rest of the Warriors get injured, Tolliver is essentially getting theboost in minutes a trade would have. (Not to mention Andris Biedrins actually has been mentioned in some rumors. But then again, who hasn’t this year?) There are so many different ways to hype Tolliver, but I’ll just go with his averages from the last 3 games: 17 ppg and 8 rpg with 1.3/1.0/0.7 3s/stl/blk.
The Warriors recently decided to cut Speedy Claxton’s valuable expiring contract to keep Tolliver (a move that angered many GS fans), so you can expect management will give him plenty of minutes to prove himself the rest of the way. I recently picked up Tolliver, then dropped him for Blatche. If Carlos Boozer doesn’t get traded, I’m dropping Paul Millsap for this kid.
[02/18/10 UPDATE -- Boozer didn't get dealt, but Ronnie Brewer did, freeing up time for both Andrei Kirilenko and Millsap. Add in the fact that Millsap has been on fire lately and looks to get 30+ mpg, and no, I am in fact not dropping him for Tolliver at this point. Just to clarify...]
Robin Lopez (38%)
He sputtered a bit last week, but with Amare Stoudemire trade rumors swirling faster than a Mid-Atlantic snowstorm, Lopez is worth owning (or at least keeping a close eye on) over the next 3 days.
J.J. Hickson (9%)
Speaking of Amare trade rumors, Hickson will be a likely beneficiary of any trade the Cavs make because the Cavs will likely be bringing in a stud PF (Amare, Jamison, or Troy Murphy), leaving a nice, empty starting PF spot on the other team. Of course, Hickson wouldn’t have LeBron James feeding him for easy scores anymore, but considering the opposing team would most likely be rebuilding (except in the case of the Suns), and Hickson should get more run than he did/does in CLE.
Keep an eye on:
Wow, I didn’t realize this list was so F-C heavy. Here are some other guys to keep an eye on (including G’s!), either due to trade speculation or strong play: Brad Miller and Taj Gibson (43% and 10% respectively — Joakim Noah still hurting and Tyrus Thomas on the trade block), Ryan Gomes (32%), Marcus Thornton (38% — coming back from injury and should still benefit from Chris Paul’s absence), DeJuan Blair (25%), George Hill (38% — better with Tony Parker healthy?), Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (8% — 11 rpg over last 3), Jared Jeffries (8%), T.J. Ford (33% — don’t get your hopes up, but back in rotation), Marquis Daniels (2%), Charlie Bell (4% — a trey in 12 straight games)
Week 14 Recap (Who Dat? It’s Darren Collison) and Week 15 Pickups
Posted by fantasy hoopster in Fantasy Basketball on January 31, 2010
Week 14 was business as usual for the most part… until it was reported Sunday that Chris Paul will undergo arthroscopic surgery on his left knee and miss 1-2 months. Before you even read anything else, run out and pick up Darren Collison, who had 18 assists in Paul’s absence on Saturday. More on that below, but first the (abbrev.) recap:
Darren Collison, it's time to shake up some fantasy basketball leagues. (Getty Images)
WEEK 14 RECAP
- Mike Miller exploded for 25, 9, and 8 including 7-10 from downtown against the Knicks on Saturday. When news of Gilbert Arenas’ legal woes first broke, I thought Miller would give Randy Foye a run for his money in terms of being the most valuable pickup. It’s just one game (and chances are the Knicks won’t play zone against WAS when they meet again this week), but at the very least make sure Miller isn’t a FA in your league.
- Attention, Tyreke Evans and Brandon Jennings: Stephen Curry is running away with the fantasy ROY race.
- The Detroit backcourt is slowly getting healthy… putting a dent in the fantasy values of every member of that team, as there are only so many minutes to go around.
- Channing Frye might be better as a sixth man, as he’s become a much more efficient player. Lou Williams: better as a sixth man? Not so much. (Although Lou posted a nice line Sunday, it seems whenever Jrue Holiday or Willie Green are playing well, Lou is the odd man out.) Both are worth holding, especially Frye, as the Suns and 76ers figure to make deals before the trade deadline. (I dropped Lou for Paul Millsap in one league though.) And if Amare Stoudemire gets shipped out of Phoenix, Frye could very well end up back in the starting lineup starting alongside Robin Lopez.
- Andrew Bynum is learning to coexist with Pau Gasol.
- And after nearly getting suspended earlier in the week, J.R. Smith had his best week of the year, averaging 17 ppg, 3.3 threes and 2.3 spg in Carmelo Anthony’s absence. Meanwhile, Kenyon Martin continues to dominate the boards, hurting Nene Hilario’s value. I expect that to even out (some) in the long term though, and since KMart is a perennial injury risk, I would sell high. (Nene could be a sneaky buy low as well, as nagging injuries have slowed him down some lately.)
WEEK 15 PICKUPS
In New Orleans, everyone's saying "Who Dat?" lately. Why, it's Darren Collison again. Pick him up. (Getty Images)
Darren Collison (15%)
At the time I’m writing this, Collison has already jumped up from being owned in 2% of Yahoo leagues to start the week to 15% and rising. He filled in admirably for Paul on Saturday night and could deliver some teams to fantasy victory in the coming months.
Marcus Thornton (25%)
Likewise, Thornton should benefit from Paul’s absence. I was already going to include him on this list as he was recently inserted into the starting lineup, but now his playing time/value increases even more. In 4 games as a starter (one without CP3), Thornton is averaging 18 ppg and 2.3 treys.
Goerge Hill (23%)
Continuing with the point/combo-guard theme, Hill is a great add with Tony Parker out in the short term. And, like Thornton above, Hill had recently been inserted into the starting lineup anyway, where he was already being productive. I give a slight nod to Thornton in preference, but only because the Hornets will need him to step up without CP3 the next 1-2 months, whereas Parker’s injury isn’t as serious.
Brandon Rush (39%)
One of my preseason sleepers, Rush is quietly averaging 13.6 ppg and 5 rpg to go with 2.1/0.6/1.0 threes/stl/blk per game over the last two weeks. Like I mentioned last week, Danny Granger’s return has really sparked him.
Robin Lopez (40%)
There’s no reason Lopez should be owned in less than half of Yahoo leagues (unless all his owners are dropping him for Collison). If Amare Stoudemire does in fact get traded, Lopez should get all the minutes he can handle, with Steve Nash spoon-feeding him buckets. He had a mediocre week last week, but he’s still worth a calculated gamble in my book.
Jared Jeffries (5%)
If you need defensive help in deeper leagues, Jeffries has averaged 1.3 spg and bpg over the last two months.
Keep an eye on: Keyon Dooling (2% — check Devin Harris’ status), Brad Miller (41% — resurrected his season this past week), Kris Humprhies (7%), Chase Budinger (3% — second guy off the bench with Kyle Lowry out), Goran Dragic (16%)
And before I go…
Corey Brewer (54%)
He’s made my “Keep an eye on” list the last several weeks, and Brewer has finally cleared the 50% hurdle with another stellar 3-pt shooting week. Add in the fact that MIN only has 2 games this week, and you’re probably wondering why I’m including him here though. Well, I just needed an excuse to post this video. (Apologies, Derek Fisher.)
Week 7 Recap (Raymond Felton is a model of efficiency) and Week 8 Pickups
Posted by fantasy hoopster in Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Pickups, Fantasy Basketball Strategy on December 13, 2009
In Week 7, Rip Hamilton and Michael Redd returned from injury. Allen Iverson returned from the grave. Several fast-starters hit a wall. Raymond Felton did his best Chris Paul impersonation. And in the biggest news of all, Danny Granger did his best, well, Danny Granger impersonation. (And Jose Calderon might have done his Jose Calderon impersonation as well.)
Is Raymond Felton turning into a crafty veteran? Because here he sure looks like that old dude at the Y who somehow uses his off-elbow when he shoots. (Getty Images)
Danny Granger
I already posted an immediate reaction to Granger’s injury, and a lot of it holds true. As a lot of you agreed, Mike Dunleavy is the guy to own, especially after a monster performance against the Wizards Friday. Roy Hibbert indeed shifted into the starting lineup and has taken about 12 shots per game since DG went down, but he only hit those shots in one game where he went off for 20 and 9 (on his birthday). Once those shots start falling, he’ll be a very useful fantasy C over the next month. I’d expect somewhere in the neighborhood of 14 and 8 with 1.5 bpg. And last but not least, Tyler Hansbrough has had three very solid performances, averaging about 18 and 7 with 1.7 spg.
Raymond Felton
It’s already almost been a month since Stephen Jackson was traded to Charlotte, and there are some clear patterns emerging. First of all, I decided to play my “wild card” guess on Gerald Wallace, predicting that Jackson’s arrival would spark him, so I’ll pat myself on the back for that. I also took an educated guess that Raymond Felton’s AST would go down, which was also true (barely), but I didn’t expect his value to skyrocket to the tune of a #57 ranking over the last month (Yahoo averages).
| FG% | FT% | 3PM | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | |
| Raymond Felton | .482 | .769 | 0.9 | 11.9 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 1.6 |
There’s a few things working in Felton’s favor here. First of all, he’s enjoying what might be his most efficient stretch in his career, shooting 48% from the field (career 40%) with only 1.6 TO per game (career 2.7) over the last month. A lot of that has to do with taking less shots because of Jackson, and also more efficient shots playing alongside another playmaker for once. Over the last week in particular, he’s shooting 60% from the field with 3.7 spg, which probably qualifies him as a sell high candidate… Read the rest of this entry »
Week 6 Recap (Starring Kevin Love as Troy Murphy) and Week 7 Pickups
Posted by fantasy hoopster in Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Pickups, Fantasy Basketball Strategy on December 6, 2009
I'm so sad I can't even make fun of Oden's 58-yr-old face. Oops I did it again. (Getty Images)
Week 6 featured the return of Chris Paul and Troy Murphy Kevin Love, although the “return” on everyone’s minds doesn’t come until tomorrow night in Philadelphia. It also featured the fall of one of my favorite sleepers on the year. Greg “Sigh” Oden.
Chris Paul
In case anyone forgot, Paul returned to the lineup earlier than expected to remind everyone why he’s the most valuable player in fantasy with a near triple-double (the CP3 way): 16 pts, 15 ast, and 8 stl.
Some other immediate ramifications: Peja Stojakovic’s shot attempts sunk to 10 after enjoying about 13 per game during Paul’s absence (although in Peja’s defense he was returning from a minor injury). Emeka Okafor saw an immediate boost in productivity, and I expect David West to follow shortly, in case you were looking to BUY LOW on either. And Devin Brown (2% owned in Yahoo leagues) is emerging as a fantasy-viable player as the starting SG, totaling 11 treys in Paul’s last 4 (complete) healthy games.
Kevin Love (and Al Jefferson)
Love did his best impersonation of Troy Murphy in his first two games of action, averaging 14.5 pts and 10.5 reb to go with 2.0 3pg. The 3’s were a pleasant surprise and after hitting only 2 all of last year, it looks like he’ll take at least 1 or 2 attempts per game this year.
Meanwhile, Al Jefferson enjoyed his two best rebounding games in a while, totaling 25 in Love’s first two games back. It might seem a little counter-intuitive, but I like this trend to continue, even when Love is inserted into the starting lineup. As I mentioned back when Love got injured, Jefferson doesn’t have to shoulder the entire rebounding load anymore, as the other team will actually have to box out another legitimate rebounder now. The other contributing factor? Jefferson has looked lackadaisical at times this year, but not the last two games. Energy is contagious around Love, and even though the Wolves won’t be fighting for a playoff spot anytime soon, I like Jefferson to play with a little more fire now that their squad has a legit chance to win every most some nights.
If you can convince Big Al’s owner that Love will actually eat into his stats, he could still be a nice BUY LOW option if you can get him at a reasonable price. Read the rest of this entry »
Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Week 4 Recap and Week 5 Pickups
Posted by fantasy hoopster in Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Injuries, Fantasy Basketball Pickups, Fantasy Basketball Strategy on November 22, 2009
Don't call it a comeback, Brand's been here all year long. He's just finally making some noise. (Getty Images)
WEEK 4 RECAP
They’re Ba-aaack
Week 4 featured the return of several fantasy studs: Rashard Lewis, Devin Harris, Troy Murphy, and Pau Gasol. (Thanks for playing, Ryan Andersen and Rafer Alston. Here are some nice parting gifts…)
As for Murphy and Gasol, their fantasy impact is a little more complicated. Murphy will definitely take away some of Roy Hibbert’s stats, but I think the young center will still be valuable contributing a near double-double with 2 bpg. Meanwhile, if you didn’t sell high on Andrew Bynum before Gasol’s return, please don’t panic and let someone buy low on him these next few (or more?) games as he readjusts to Gasol. 19 and 11 might be a little much to expect, but he’ll be much better than 11 and 8 (his first game with Pau back).
On the flip side, Week 4 also saw some key injuries, including Jameer Nelson and Andrew Bogut. If you’re looking for replacements, Jason Williams has had a couple decent games thus far, while Kurt Thomas/Hakim Warrick have each had a nice game (depending on the matchup) in Bogut’s absence. (There are some more exciting pickups further below.)
They’re “Ba-aaack”
Week 4 also featured the “return” of two stud centers: Elton Brand and Al Jefferson. With Marresse Speights out of the way due to injury, Brand absolutely erupted, averaging 20 and 10 with 2.7/3.7 spg/bpg this week, good for the #2 ranking by averages in Yahoo leagues. I’m not sure what to make of this unexpected outburst quite yet, as the 76ers lost two of those games and barely beat a new-look CHA team in the other game, but I’ll have my thoughts on whether Brand is a sell high or buy low guy shortly.
Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Eye-Opening Lines from Week 2
Posted by fantasy hoopster in Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Rankings, Fantasy Basketball Strategy on November 8, 2009
The only thing that can stop Kaman so far is Kaman himself. Or Reggie Evans' right hand. (AP)
Week 2 had plenty of surprises, including a fantasy stud who keeps getting better, some old-timers rising from the dead, some sleepers living up to the hype, and plenty of potential free agents who might be able to help your squad.
THE RICH GET RICHER
Chris Paul
First of all, I just want to point out one of the sickest stats of this young season. As if there was any doubt who the (statistically) best fantasy player in the league is, Paul has hit a ridiculous 72% of his threes this year. (He’s only hitting 64% of his overall shots though. Slacker.)
ZOMBIELAND
Meanwhile, a handful of fantasy old-timers (some older than others) have seemingly risen from the dead to put up top-notch fantasy stats.
Andrei Kirilenko
In 4 November games, AK-47 approached his pre-Boozer/Deron AK-47 numbers with 1.8 spg/bpg to go along with 13 ppg and solid %’s, good for a top 25 Yahoo ranking by averages.
Chris Kaman
Kaman’s monster season continued in week 2. His game log speaks for itself. Sell high, anyone?
Andrew Bogut
It’s been a couple years since Bogut was a top-tier fantasy C, but last week he sure played like one, averaging 18 and 10 with 1/2 spg/bpg. With Michael Redd coming back in the next week or so, I’m not sure Bogut will continue to get 14 shots per game, but he’s clearly found his offensive rhythm again.
Draft Strategy: Gilbert vs. The World
Posted by fantasy hoopster in Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Draft, Fantasy Basketball Draft Strategy, Fantasy Basketball Rankings on October 10, 2009
"Aflac!" -Gilbert Gottfried, all de time (Scott Gries/Getty Images)
"When I had fun, I got criticized. So we’ll see what happens when I’m serious.” -Gilbert Arenas, Sept 2009 (AP/Haraz Ghanbari)
It just might be the single-most important decision affecting fantasy leagues this season. And the answer’s right here: I’m drafting Gilbert Gottfried in the third round of my Fantasy Jewish Comedians League. Think about it. He’s basically the Jason Kidd of Jewish comedians, consistently delivering across multiple platforms: television, film, even video games.
“Thanks for wasting my time, buddy. But where the hell do I draft Gilbert Arenas?” I’m glad you asked. I’m also glad Erik over at Points in the Paint already answered this question, because it makes my life a whole lot easier.
So what’s the point of this article? First, I’m going to touch on one great point Erik makes that I also alluded to in my Draft Rankings, as well as pose two important questions you should ask yourself on draft day. And I’ll throw in a case study… FOR FREE! (By the way, you’ll see I have Gilbert ranked #39. I’ll explain why I have him down there, but you’ll probably have to draft him much earlier if you want him.) Second, I’m going to touch on “The World” part of Gilbert vs. The World. Namely, how does Agent 0’s return affect two other fantasy studs: Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison?
THE GILBERT PART
Okay. This is it. The third round’s about to begin. Gilbert’s still on the board. What do you do? For me, it comes down to two (okay, three) questions:
a) Who else is on the draft board?
b) Who else is on my team? (And who else do I want on my team later?)
Draft Strategy: CP3 or LeBron?
Posted by fantasy hoopster in Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Draft, Fantasy Basketball Draft Strategy, Fantasy Basketball Rankings on October 7, 2009
CP3 or LeBron? Who knows. But Homer Simpson could whoop Peter Griffin any day (©Fox Broadcasting)
Simpsons or Family Guy?
Tupac or Biggie?
Transformers or G.I. Joe?
Easy. Simpsons, Biggie, and G.I. Joe (the originals, not the remakes).
But when it comes to CP3 or LeBron, my head hurts. It’s one of fantasy basketball’s most basic questions, even though only 1 out of every 10 or 12 of us have to make this difficult decision for any given league. I heard it asked several times this past weekend alone, so I figured I’d give it some more attention.
The short answer? Pick who you like better. Yeah. That’s my sage advice. These two guys are so far out in the lead, fantasy-wise, that you can’t really go wrong with either. (Well, Wade wasn’t too far behind last year, but he’s also more of an injury risk.) So if you like your top guy to flirt with triple-doubles on a nightly basis, go with LeBron. If you want your guy to have a legit shot at a quadruple-double any given night, go with CP3. Wow, that was an easy article to write!
Except… oh yeah… the long answer. Well, the long answer depends on a couple things, namely a) the numbers and b) your league format. Geeks, buckle up your seat belts!
THE NUMBERS
Perhaps all we really need to do is look at CP3 and LeBron’s stats from last year, as they’re pretty indicative of what these guys have been doing the last few years.
| FG% | FT% | 3PM | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | |
| Chris Paul 08-09 TOT | .503 | .868 | 64 | 1781 | 432 | 861 | 216 | 10 | 231 |
| LeBron James 08-09 TOT | .489 | .780 | 132 | 2304 | 613 | 587 | 137 | 93 | 241 |
LeBron has a clear edge in 4 categories: 3PM, PTS, REB, BLK. Paul has a clear edge in 3 categories (FT%, AST, STL) and a slight edge in 2 (FG%, TO). At first glance, it might seem that LeBron is the favorite, having a clear edge in more categories. But there’s another layer of meaning beneath the surface, and it has a lot to do with how difficult it is to accumulate certain stats. (Non-mathletes, beware! Just kidding, I’ll do my best to speak to those of you who don’t watch Battlestar Galactica.)
Josh Whitling over at that sports website (that also broadcasts a lot of sporting events on TV) did a pretty good analysis of the easiest and hardest categories to fill (bottom of the article). Okay, I’ll admit those numbers are giving me a headache, and I even went to math camp one summer in high school. (Don’t worry, I just gave myself a wedgie.) But in general, the lower the numbers on that chart, the fewer the number of players who were able to deliver significantly higher than the league average of players’ season totals for that category.
Huuuuhhhhh? Let me try to explain, or you can just skip a couple of paragraphs down. For points, 79+19+5 = 103 players were at least one standard deviation above the league average for players’ total points last year. The “5″ means that 5 guys were especially studly in this category, and they were (in order) Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki, and Kevin Durant. (Remember, these are player totals, not averages.) CP3 just missed the cut for being especially studly by ranking seventh in total points last year.
Meanwhile, for assists only 58+11+4 = 73 players were at least one standard deviation above the league average for players’ total assists last year. In this case, CP3 was far and ahead at the top of the list, while LeBron just missed the cut for being especially studly by ranking eighth in total assists.
What the heck does this all mean? According to Whitling’s analysis, there are easy categories to fill, and hard categories to fill.
The easy categories:
Points, rebounds, threes, steals.
The hard categories:
FG%, FT%, assists, blocks.
By the numbers, CP3 schooled LeBron last year. In fact, CP3 loves basketball so much he even took one to his senior prom. (Layne Murdoch/NBAE via Getty Images)
Whitling didn’t discuss TO, but CP3 and LeBron were pretty much a wash there anyway. If you look at the other 8 categories, 3 of the 4 categories LeBron has a clear edge in are so-called “easy” categories. Meanwhile, 2 out of the 3 categories CP3 has a clear edge in are “hard” categories. And for the one “easy” category that CP3 has a clear edge in, steals, he is by far the runaway leader in that category. (If you look at the chart, you’ll see a “1″ under “4+ standard deviations” for steals. Yup, that 1 is CP3.)
Then again, you might look at BLK, where CP3 only recorded 10 all year, and LeBron averaged over 1 bpg last year. That seems like total domination, and in a hard category nonetheless. Yes, LeBron dominates CP3 in this category, but he was only about 2 standard deviations above the league average for total blocks last year. That’s nice, but it doesn’t compare to the 4+ standard deviations that CP3 dominates the entire league in for steals.
I could go through an analysis of CP3 vs. LeBron for every single category, but I’ll just let Yahoo and ESPN do the work for me. If you look at the player raters (by player totals) for each site for the 08-09 season, Chris Paul is ranked above LeBron on both. And here’s the kicker: CP3 only played in 78 games last year. LeBron played in 81. CP3 had a bigger statistical impact than LeBron playing 3 less games. That’s hard to argue against…
THE FORMAT: Roto vs. H2H leagues
…but it is indeed arguable, depending on the league format. If you’ve fished around my site, you may have noticed I’m a huge fan of NBA scheduling and its impact on H2H fantasy leagues. Specifically, I’m a huge fan of owning players that play on a lot of Off-Days — those days where there isn’t much NBA action going on, but there are a few teams playing. And more often than not, they’re the same teams playing over and over again. (Note: You want to own players on these teams to maximize your ‘games played’ each week in H2H leagues.) Here’s an excerpt from my article on Off-Days — “Draft Strategy: Don’t hate the player, hate the team“:
"I can't believe this guy just quoted himself. And picked G.I. Joe over ME." (Maxim)
“This Off-Day schedule should help in making some difficult first-round decisions in particular. While the fantasy gods have tried to level the playing field in the fantasy playoffs by giving both LeBron’s Cavs and CP3’s Hornets only 11 games (as opposed to 14 for HOU, MIL, OKC, SA, TOR, WAS), LeBron has the clearly favorable Off-Day schedule during the regular season. In fact of the 14 days on the NBA calendar with only 2 games in action, the Cavs play on 8 of those days. 8 out of 14. Meanwhile, there are 11 other teams that don’t play on any of those days. (The Hornets play on 1.) Although CP3 is statistically the most valuable player in the league, that’s enough for me to take LeBron H2H. Although I’m sticking with CP3 in roto.”
There you have it. If you’re just looking at 82 games, played on any days, CP3 is more valuable than LeBron. But in H2H, they don’t play those 82 games on just any days. See, there’s this schedule those suits in the NBA head office concocted to maximize the exposure of its posterchilds. And apparently, the league considers LeBron much more of a posterchild than CP3. In other words, when CP3 and the Hornets play, the NBA schedule is usually going to be pretty full that night, which means you’ll likely have your third or fourth best guard or forward on the bench and not contributing to the cause. However, when LeBron plays on those Off-Days, it frees up a roster spot on the other days where the schedule is pretty full so that you don’t have to sit your third or fourth best G or F. In other words, during those weeks that LeBron plays on more Off-Days, it’s essentially like getting free games against your opponent.
Your point is?
While I haven’t done the exact mathematical analysis (you’re welcome, world), I believe these extra games on LeBron-led fantasy teams outweigh the advantage that CP3 holds in statistics alone. At least in H2H leagues. But for roto, it’s CP3.
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- Walker donezo - Bill Walker (G/F) New York Knicks
- Adrian Wojnarowski
- WojYahooNBA: RT @DanWetzel: I'm giddy over this Tiger-Ari Fleischer deal. A sure-to-be disastrous PR campaign is always good for a columnist
- WojYahooNBA: Column: Donald Sterling has big plans for the Clippers now. Next, he should fire himself. http://tinyurl.com/yhbokyp
- WojYahooNBA: RT @jimrome: You know you're having a bad day if Lester Munson is on tv talking about you.
- WojYahooNBA: Gonzo took Times vaccine at Duane Reade RT @PeteThamelNYT: When asked his reaction toTimes story, Gonzo said, "I’m immune to those things."
- WojYahooNBA: Larry Brown had been pushing for Sixers job too, but hard to believe MJ will let him out of contract to leave for Philly or Clips.
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