Posts Tagged Channing Frye

Week 19 Recap (I don’t like mosquitoes) and Week 20 Pickups

The Week 19 Recap will be a little different this week because, amazingly, I only spent 5 minutes checking fantasy stats while vacationing in Central America, with just one mid-week check-in on my main H2H squad to make sure Gerald Wallace and Dwight Howard weren’t pummeling me too much.  (A special thanks to Andrew Bogut for making me rest easy the rest of the week.)

The final fantasy tally from my trip? About 13 fishies devoured, 2 oceans dipped in, 1 cave spelunked, 1 river rafted, 1 military coup averted, 30+ mosquito bites, 3 fire ant bites, 1 sprained ankle, 1 allergic reaction, and 1 cartoonishly swollen foot.  (Unfortunately, the last four items all occurred to the same foot.  I’d post pictures but they’re NSFW.)

And now back to reality.  Or, uh, fantasy.  After a Sunday of devouring stats and updates, here are the…

WEEK 20 PICKUPS

First of all, make sure guys like Drew Gooden (49%), Taj Gibson (42%), and George Hill (48%) aren’t taken.  You might also want to consider Richard Jefferson, who’s owned in 50+% of Yahoo leagues but might have been dropped anytime in the last several weeks.  He carried some of the offensive burden when Tony Parker exited the Spurs’ last game with a broken hand.  Carlos Delfino (46%) is another guy who might have been dropped recently who is putting things together again.

Quentin Richardson (21%)

He’s on fire, with 12 makes from downtown over his last 2 games.  It’s hard to fully endorse him because he’s been streaky his entire career, but with Jermaine O’Neal out, Q is taking more shots and could singlehandedly decide 3’s in H2H leagues.

Anthony Tolliver (17%)

I probably overhyped him the first time I mentioned him several weeks ago, but with Andris Biedrins out, Tolliver is a nice Channing Frye-ish (pre-Robin Lopez) clone.  Ronny Turiaf is also useful for blocks, although I’d rather own the guy two spots below.

Rodrigue Beaubois (14%)

Beaubois was my first pickup upon returning stateside.  He’s posted back-to-back-to-back career highs in scoring his last three games with Jason Terry out of commission.

JaVale McGee (21%)

He’s slowly rounding into the form that made him one of my “must-owns” (at least in deeper leagues) in the aftermath of the trade deadline, averaging nearly 4 bpg over his last 5.

Jonas Jerebko (18%)

Posted near-1/1/1 stats last week and is getting plenty of touches as DET continues to jostle for lottery position.

Keep an eye on:

James Harden (32% — his up-and-down rookie season was “up” last week), Jrue Holiday (11% — ditto), J.J. Hickson (17%), Matt Bonner (6% — another candidate to hoist more shots sans Tony P), Matt Barnes (20% — playing well + nice sked this week), Bill Walker (5%), Serge Ibaka (4%).

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

No Comments

Trade Fallout: So many trades, so few roster spots

Wow, that was a busy trade season.  I haven’t seen that many players swapped since baseball cards were still cool to collect.  But since, realistically, most of us only had one or two roster spots to tinker with, how do we make sense of all the trade winners and losers?  Well, here’s my preliminary ranking (by tiers) of guys who are available in 50+% of Yahoo leagues (at least, before the trading deadline):

MUST-OWNS

Andray Blatche

First game post-Jamison and Haywood said it all, even if it came against the undersized T-Wolves.

Omri Casspi

Put up top 50 numbers when Martin was out earlier this year, and is a clear building block of the franchise.

Tyrus Thomas

With ample playing time, expect some wild stl/blk stat lines in the future.

JaVale McGee (at least in deeper leagues)

Like Blatche, he had an eye-opening effort against the T-Wolves,  Before that, he’s been very promising in stretches, albeit inconsistent.  He’s in the top tier because of his upside and the fact that his FT% isn’t nearly as bad as another C I’ll mention below.

NICE-TO-OWNS

Taj Gibson

Should see a nice boost while Joakim Noah is out.  Otherwise, at least he should enjoy a nice boost in confidence with Thomas gone.

Sergio Rodriguez

This guy might belong in the top tier if he can take Chris Duhon’s starting job, as has been rumored.  He’s probably a must-own in deeper leagues based purely on speculation.

Tracy McGrady

It’s kind of sad I would rather own Sergio Rodriguez right now, but T-Mac probably has more upside than anyone on this list.  He’s the true wild card of this group.

Josh Howard

Okay, he’s probably already taken in your league.  But if not, I’d rank him right below T-Mac.

Rasual Butler

Al Thornton’s exit and Travis Outlaw’s uncertain return mean big minutes for Butler.

DeAndre Jordan

Mixed bag in first two games post-Marcus Camby.  His upside is equal to McGee’s, but in his career as a starter he’s shooting a putrid 36% on a substantial 4.4 FT attempts per game.  His inconsistency might not be worth that negative pressure.

Craig Smith

Doesn’t do much besides score and score efficiently.  Those looking to make a last minute charge up the FG% ranks in roto leagues should consider him.

Francisco Garcia

He was a stud last year after the Kings traded away John Salmons.  The only problem this year — Tyreke Evans, Donte Greene, and Omri Casspi are all emerging and playing well.  And who knows what Larry Hughes’ role will be.

Donte Greene

See: Garcia, Francisco.

KEEP AN EYE ON

Nate Robinson

I dropped Nate for JaVale McGee in what was a needs-based move in one league, but BOS might actually be a good situation for Nate.  You know they want to rest Ray Allen for the playoffs, so it’s possible Nate could get 25-30 mpg as an instant offense sixth man.  Or, he could get the same minutes Eddie House was getting.  Who knows?  So keep an eye on him.

Nick Young

WAS is playing for the future, and Young would qualify as such.  If you need 3’s, they might start falling soon…

Rudy Fernandez and Jerryd Bayless

Even with Steve Blake gone, these guys kind of cancel each other out.  If Brandon Roy continues to be hampered by his hammy, both would enjoy instant upgrades.

Jared Jeffries and Hilton Armstrong

Jeffries’ skills are a perfect match for Houston’s style of play.  However, he probably won’t get close to the minutes he was getting in NY.  We’ll have to wait and see what that averages out to.  And speaking of playing time, Armstrong will be battling Jeffries for the minutes that Carl Landry vacated in Houston.  He hasn’t done much this year, but has been useful for stretches in the past.

Hakim Warrick

He doesn’t do much besides score, but CHI chose him over more defensive big men like Kurt Thomas and Francisco Elson for a reason.  With Salmons gone, Warrick could be leaned on for some (unorthodox) post scoring.

Beno Udrih

Udrih was useful the first time Martin was missing games, but the return of Francisco Garcia complicates that backcourt enough for me to be cautiously optimistic about Udrih the rest of the way.

Al Thornton

A change of scenery might do him good, but he’s still playing behind Mike Miller and Howard.

IT’S NOT YOU, IT’S ME…

You might not want to cut some of these guys right away, but if you have to in order to snatch one of the “Must-Owns” I’d probably make the move.

Channing Frye

I’m sticking Frye on this list because he was probably hurt the most by the Suns’ inability to trade Amare Stoudemire.  He could still very possibly get hot for multiple games at a time, but Robin Lopez is entrenched as the starter now, killing Frye’s consistency.  (I’d hang onto him in deeper leagues though.)

J.J. Hickson and Anderson Varejao

Again, maybe wait at least a couple days before dropping these guys, but that CLE frontcourt is awfully crowded now. But do what you gotta do and don’t look back.

Drew Gooden

Looks like he’s staying in Clipperland, where he might actually be somewhat useful, but his upside is limited.

Ronnie Brewer and Charlie Bell

Brewer and Bell are headed to the MEM and MIL benches, and there are definitely more attractive fish in the sea.

Zydrunas Ilgauskas

If his contract is bought out, he’s worthless for 4 weeks.  If he rejoins CLE or goes to DAL, it’s not much better.

Erick Dampier

I was down on him from the start.  A broken finger sealed his fate.

Did I miss anyone?  Of course I did.  Feel free to let me know below…

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

1 Comment

Week 14 Recap (Who Dat? It’s Darren Collison) and Week 15 Pickups

Week 14 was business as usual for the most part… until it was reported Sunday that Chris Paul will undergo arthroscopic surgery on his left knee and miss 1-2 months.  Before you even read anything else, run out and pick up Darren Collison, who had 18 assists in Paul’s absence on Saturday.  More on that below, but first the (abbrev.) recap:

Darren Collison, it's time to shake up some fantasy basketball leagues.  (Getty Images)

Darren Collison, it's time to shake up some fantasy basketball leagues. (Getty Images)

WEEK 14 RECAP

  • Mike Miller exploded for 25, 9, and 8 including 7-10 from downtown against the Knicks on Saturday.  When news of Gilbert Arenas’ legal woes first broke, I thought Miller would give Randy Foye a run for his money in terms of being the most valuable pickup.  It’s just one game (and chances are the Knicks won’t play zone against WAS when they meet again this week), but at the very least make sure Miller isn’t a FA in your league.
  • Attention, Tyreke Evans and Brandon Jennings: Stephen Curry is running away with the fantasy ROY race.
  • The Detroit backcourt is slowly getting healthy… putting a dent in the fantasy values of every member of that team, as there are only so many minutes to go around.
  • Channing Frye might be better as a sixth man, as he’s become a much more efficient player.  Lou Williams: better as a sixth man?  Not so much.  (Although Lou posted a nice line Sunday, it seems whenever Jrue Holiday or Willie Green are playing well, Lou is the odd man out.)  Both are worth holding, especially Frye, as the Suns and 76ers figure to make deals before the trade deadline.  (I dropped Lou for Paul Millsap in one league though.)  And if Amare Stoudemire gets shipped out of Phoenix, Frye could very well end up back in the starting lineup starting alongside Robin Lopez.
  • Andrew Bynum is learning to coexist with Pau Gasol.
  • And after nearly getting suspended earlier in the week, J.R. Smith had his best week of the year, averaging 17 ppg, 3.3 threes and 2.3 spg in Carmelo Anthony’s absence.  Meanwhile, Kenyon Martin continues to dominate the boards, hurting Nene Hilario’s value.  I expect that to even out (some) in the long term though, and since KMart is a perennial injury risk, I would sell high.  (Nene could be a sneaky buy low as well, as nagging injuries have slowed him down some lately.)

WEEK 15 PICKUPS

In New Orleans, everyone's saying "Who Dat?" lately.  Why, it's Darren Collison again.  Pick him up.  (Getty Images)

In New Orleans, everyone's saying "Who Dat?" lately. Why, it's Darren Collison again. Pick him up. (Getty Images)

Darren Collison (15%)

At the time I’m writing this, Collison has already jumped up from being owned in 2% of Yahoo leagues to start the week to 15% and rising.  He filled in admirably for Paul on Saturday night and could deliver some teams to fantasy victory in the coming months.

Marcus Thornton (25%)

Likewise, Thornton should benefit from Paul’s absence.  I was already going to include him on this list as he was recently inserted into the starting lineup, but now his playing time/value increases even more.  In 4 games as a starter (one without CP3), Thornton is averaging 18 ppg and 2.3 treys.

Goerge Hill (23%)

Continuing with the point/combo-guard theme, Hill is a great add with Tony Parker out in the short term.  And, like Thornton above, Hill had recently been inserted into the starting lineup anyway, where he was already being productive.  I give a slight nod to Thornton in preference, but only because the Hornets will need him to step up without CP3 the next 1-2 months, whereas Parker’s injury isn’t as serious.

Brandon Rush (39%)

One of my preseason sleepers, Rush is quietly averaging 13.6 ppg and 5 rpg to go with 2.1/0.6/1.0 threes/stl/blk per game over the last two weeks.  Like I mentioned last week, Danny Granger’s return has really sparked him.

Robin Lopez (40%)

There’s no reason Lopez should be owned in less than half of Yahoo leagues (unless all his owners are dropping him for Collison).  If Amare Stoudemire does in fact get traded, Lopez should get all the minutes he can handle, with Steve Nash spoon-feeding him buckets.  He had a mediocre week last week, but he’s still worth a calculated gamble in my book.

Jared Jeffries (5%)

If you need defensive help in deeper leagues, Jeffries has averaged 1.3 spg and bpg over the last two months.

Keep an eye on: Keyon Dooling (2% — check Devin Harris’ status), Brad Miller (41% — resurrected his season this past week), Kris Humprhies (7%), Chase Budinger (3% — second guy off the bench with Kyle Lowry out), Goran Dragic (16%)

And before I go…

Corey Brewer (54%)

He’s made my “Keep an eye on” list the last several weeks, and Brewer has finally cleared the 50% hurdle with another stellar 3-pt shooting week.  Add in the fact that MIN only has 2 games this week, and you’re probably wondering why I’m including him here though.  Well, I just needed an excuse to post this video.  (Apologies, Derek Fisher.)

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

2 Comments

Eye-Opening Lines: Robin Lopez

And introducing Robin Lopez as the other brother from the same mother.  (AP)

And introducing Robin Lopez as the other brother from the same mother. (AP)

I mentioned him in my latest weekly pickups, but after two solid lines in two starts, Robin “The Other” Lopez is officially the hottest pickup in fantasy basketball right now.  When I mentioned him earlier this week, he was only owned in 7% of Yahoo leagues, and that number is up to 29% already so act fast if you want him.  Here’s why:

In a Monday night start against Marc “The Other” Gasol and the Grizzlies, he tallied 19 and 7 with 3 blk.

He followed that up with another start on Wednesday against twin brother Brook Lopez and the Nets, scoring another career high with 20 and 7 with 1 blk.

Granted, as good as Marc Gasol and Brook Lopez are fantasy-wise, in real life the Grizzlies and Nets tend to let opposing centers put up some pretty nice fantasy lines.  But you can’t ignore a) the minutes and b) the production.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the Suns switch back to Channing Frye if this experiment doesn’t pan out (because, really, the Suns could’ve beaten the Nets starting Lisa Leslie at center).  But Lopez is clearly worth a look whether or not you need a center, because he could very well turn into a nice mid-season trade bargaining chip to get what you really need.

And of course, RLopez could put up two duds in a row and get benched in which case you reevaluate everything and question my sanity (honestly I wouldn’t be surprised by Roy Hibbert-like inconsistency) but I think it’s worth the risk if you don’t have to part with a key piece of your team.

Which big man would you prefer on your team?

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...

, , , ,

No Comments

Week 12 Recap (Raaaaaaaandy!) and Week 13 Pickups

Week 12 featured a franchise quickly forgetting its (once) franchise player, the return of another (once?) franchise player in Sacramento, and the continued (and now seemingly sustainable) dominance of a player playing with a purpose.

(By the way, “Raaaaaaaandy!” is actually spelled exactly correctly.  It’s a reference to Aziz Ansari’s character in the movie Funny People.  Check it out at LaughYourDickOff.com.  Yes, you read that right.)

Randy Foye got off to such a hot start as Agent 0's replacement, you knew Fantasy Hoopster had to trade him.  (Getty Images)

Randy Foye got off to such a hot start as Agent 0's replacement, you knew Fantasy Hoopster had to trade him. (Getty Images)

Randy Foye

Gilbert who?  Life went on in WAS without Gilbert Arenas, with Antawn Jamison picking up much of the slack.  But it was Foye who particular impressed this past week, playing the best stretch of his year, so of course I just traded him.  Was it the right move?  Who knows, but here’s my reasoning.

Reasons to sell high: He’s shooting well above his career FG% right now.  If Caron Butler or Jamison gets traded, that might translate into more points but at a less efficient rate, which equals a bad tradeoff in my mind (at least for my particular team).  Also, when Mike Miller returns that’ll likely dent into Foye’s AST totals.

Reasons to keep: Apparently he has the reins to the team.  He took shots at the end of both overtimes (missing both) against Chicago.  Maybe he just needed a new setting and style of offense to excel.  His only (current) competition at PG is technically considered a dwarf in certain countries.

Obviously, I leaned towards the former.  In my trade, I packaged Foye along with Andre Iguodala (I also threw in Yi Jianlian) for Dwyane Wade and a couple scrubs who I plan to drop for Luke Ridnour and another player to be determined.  Yes, I know I overpaid, but the trade made sense to me for several reasons, which I might point out in another post if people are interested.

Also, going back to an earlier post when Arenas was first suspended, back then I decided not to drop Nate Robinson for Foye, but then quickly decided to drop Tyrus Thomas instead.  I’m sure most of you have already figured out Foye is currently the hottest player of all three, although as exhibited on Saturday night, he’s not perfect.

Kevin Martin

Martin returned this week and quickly resumed draining threes again.  That’s not too surprising.  The more interesting subplot (or is it main plot now?) to this story involves his effect on a couple of Sacto’s rising rookies: Tyreke Evans and Omri Casspi.

Two games isn’t much of a sample, but it appears as if Evans won’t be affected too much at all — he still controlled the ball for the most part and his shot attempts were still there — while Casspi’s role in the offense was reduced.  This isn’t too surprising; even though Martin just signed a nice extension, I’d argue Evans is Sacto’s new franchise player now.  It’s still early, but I’m glad I didn’t advise anyone to sell high on Evans.  Sadly, I also didn’t have enough balls to advise trading for him from a panicked manager who might’ve sold him on the cheap.  Either way, if you own Evans I’d breathe a slight sigh of relief, although everything is fluid in fantasy of course.

As for Casspi, I think some of those shot attempts might come back, but probably not at a consistent enough level for him to be mentioned in the fantasy ROY race anymore.  Evans and Martin are going to get their shots, so that probably means a lot of inconsistency for the rest of the Kings, especially Casspi.

ROY Race

This hasn’t been much of a race lately, at least not between Brandon Jennings and Tyreke Evans.  (Hello, Stephen Curry with your 6 stl/fouls against MIL on Friday night.)  I just mentioned Evans has a great chance to retain most of his value even with KevMart back, but it’s the absence of Michael Redd that might revitalize Jennings’ season.  Jennings is clearly a rhythm shooter, and he never quite found the rhythm (or volume) for his shots with Redd back.  But now that he (and Andrew Bogut) are the primary offensive options in MIL again, Jennings has a chance to get back to his old numbers… although I wouldn’t expect him to shoot above 40%.  If you can handle the ugly shooting, you might be able to snag him with a lowball offer.

Samuel Dalembert

Dalembert has been on a tear the entire month of January, and his last couple games have been particularly sweet.  In the past, I’ve recommended him as a waiver wire pickup that people should sell high on if possible because of his historic inconsistency, but I think I’m changing my tune now, for two (non-stat-based) reasons.

Dalembert’s productivity (along with a lot of other NBA players) is often directly related to his motivation/focus.  Well non-stat-based reason #1 that I like Sammy D the rest of the way is because he really plays with more passion whenever Allen Iverson is on the court.  Back when Iverson was first signed by the 76ers, I mentioned Dalembert even had dreams that AI would return to the squad.  Man-crush or motivation?  Who knows, but it’s translated into great numbers for Sammy D.

Non-stat-based reason #2, on the other hand, is no joking matter at all.  Dalembert is a native Haitian, and in the two games since the tragedy in Haiti, a lot of people have been saying he’s played with a clear focus (14.5 ppg and 16.5 rpg with 2 bpg while shooting a combined 13-15 from the floor).  I hate to bring reality into a blog about pure fantasy, but if you’ve ever had something absolutely shitty happen to you in real life, I’m sure you can relate with “focusing on work” as a temporary escape.  I don’t think NBA players are an exception to that, and it looks like Dalembert might be playing with a heavy heart from here on out.

By the way, there are a ton of ways to help out with the earthquake in Haiti.  Here’s one organization that’s already been working there for 20 years that some friends of mine have volunteered for.  It’s called Partners in Health, and I know they make a difference if you’re worried about how your donations are spent.

standwithhaiti

And in other Week 12 (fantasy) news:

As the guys at GiveMeTheRock point out, Charlotte is on a roll, led by none other than Stephen JacksonGerald Wallace and Raymond Felton are still playing well, but the other big fantasy news out of CHA is Boris Diaw, who is finally adjusting to his new teammate.  Buy low if you can.

In LA, Pau Gasol returned from injury, and Andrew Bynum decided to put up another great line.  This is encouraging news if you own Bynum, although I wouldn’t expect it to be the norm.  I still expect Bynum to have many more night like this, but with some mediocre games sprinkled in.

In Chicago, Joakim Noah is on fire from the free throw line and the sole reason why I’ve risen a couple spots in that category so far this month in one roto league.

In Indiana, Roy Hibbert is on fire from everywhere… and that’s with Danny Granger and Troy Murphy back.  Remember when I said he’d average a double-double with 2 bpg back when he was mired in a slump?  Even I laughed at myself.  Expect some inconsistency, but I’m glad/relieved I still have him in all my leagues.

WEEK 13 PICKUPS

Since my top pick from last week is still owned in less than half of Yahoo leagues, I’ll just mention Kirk Hinrich (49%) first.  Okay, there.  Now onto to some fresh meat.

Rasual Butler (26%)

Just in case you were wondering who that guy who keeps hitting 3's for your team looks like... (Getty Images)

Just in case you were wondering who that guy who keeps hitting 3's for your team looks like... (Getty Images)

Okay, so he’s not exactly fresh because this is probably the fourth time he’s made this list.  Also, I alluded to this earlier in the week, but with Blake Griffin out for the year, both Butler and Al Thornton don’t have to look over their shoulders quite as much anymore.  I much prefer Butler (as does Mike Dunleavy Sr.), and he has a real chance to keep up his current pace of 13.8 ppg with 1.7 threes as starting SF (including 33 pts and 4 treys versus the Cavs Saturday night), albeit with some inconsistency.

DeJuan Blair (23%)

I mentioned Blair in a recent Eye-Opening Lines post.  Since then, the undersized center had 8 and 8 in a foul-plagued game against MEM.  If you need a big man, check him out.

Luke Ridnour (38%), Ersan Ilyasova (38%), and Carlos Delfino (6%)

I mentioned these guys last week, and I still like them to benefit from Michael Redd’s season-ending injury (roughly in this order).  At one point earlier in the year, Ridnour was actually ranked in the top 50 as he was an efficient source of 3’s and ast.  Meanwhile Ilyasova had already been solid in recent weeks, while Delfino exploded for 28 pts in his last game.

Robin Lopez (7%)

I’ve been waiting for Lopez to eat into Channing Frye’s minutes all year and it finally happened last week.  In PHO’s two most recent games, Lopez averaged 12.5 ppg and 4.5 bpg in 27 mpg (all season highs).  One of the games was a blowout; one was highly contested.  I’m not sure if this is a trend, but pay close to attention if you need blk.

Some guys I’ve spent plenty of ink on already:

Mike Miller (37% — no official word on return, but should be owned in most leagues), Martell Webster (47%), Matt Barnes (29% — if you’re worried about Rashard Lewis, it’s actually Barnes and not Vince Carter who is hurting him more)

Some other guys to keep an eye on:

Corey Brewer (34%), Jonas Jerebko (7% — back in the starting lineup…for now), Delonte West (21%), Steve Blake (10% — still hitting 3’s as a sub), Vladimir Radmanovic (5% — check status), Chuck Hayes (12% — last week’s averages were inflated by a monster 3OT game, but he was relevant earlier in the year), Earl Watson (10%), Jared Jeffries (1% — still a cheap source of stl/blk), James Posey (5%), Shannon Brown (2%), DeAndre Jordan (3% — check Chris Kaman’s status)

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

1 Comment

Schmuck Bait: Marc Gasol, Anthony Morrow, Channing Frye, and (yet again) Andrew Bynum

Several guys who rose out of obscurity the first month of the year to enjoy fantasy stardom have hit a wall in recent weeks, including Marc Gasol, Anthony Morrow, and Channing Frye.  I like Gasol and Morrow as great buy low options if you can convince their owners that reality has set in and get them at the right price.  I’m actively trying to snag both, while I’m slightly more cautious of Frye.  Meanwhile, two fantasy veterans (at least compared to those three guys) in Andrea Bargnani and Andrew Bynum are both great buy low targets as well.

Marc Gasol is pleading for you to buy him for pennies on the dollar.  (AP)

Marc Gasol is pleading for you to buy him for pennies on the dollar. (AP)

Marc Gasol

Just a couple weeks ago, Marc Gasol seemed untouchable, and in fact many of you put him on par with Al Horford in value according to a recent poll.  If you still value him that much, now is your chance to get him on the cheap.

Zach Randolph has been on an offensive tear recently, which has translated into bigger minutes, which has also translated into eating up some of Gasol’s REB stats and shot attempts this month.  Yes, that’s exactly what Z-Bo excels at, but he’s also playing a crazy 39 mpg this month, and his career high for a season is about 35 mpg, so I don’t think he can keep up this pace…

And of course, as I was writing the first part of this post Sunday night, Z-Bo had an off-night while Gasol went off for a big double-double on 7-7 shooting.  However, Gasol fell back to earth a little facing a tough front line in the form of Kendrick Perkins and Kevin Garnett last night, so hopefully his owner has already forgotten about his 16 and 15 performance from Sunday.  In other words, I think Randolph’s strong play as of late has definitely influenced Gasol’s stats.  And as Randolph gets more comfortable in MEM, Gasol will probably have trouble stringing monster double-doubles in a row.  But Gasol’s last 6-game stretch (excluding MIA) will probably end up being one of his worse ones all year, so if you can convince Gasol’s owner that those games represent his true value, you could land yourself a nice starting C.

The other variable to keep an eye on here is Hasheem Thabeet, who has totaled 9 blocks in his last two games.  Even if Thabeet can muster 20 mpg eventually (he was at 9 mpg in Nov and is currently at 14 mpg in Dec), Gasol should still get 30+ mpg, as they’re on the floor together for stretches.  I don’t think it will hurt Gasol’s overall numbers too much (otherwise I wouldn’t be mentioning Gasol here), but it could negatively impact Gasol’s bpg, which were already at a higher per-minute clip than last year.  Nonetheless, most of Gasol’s value comes in his efficiency and nice steals from the C spot a la Nene Hilario, so I’m still banking on a top 50 finish.

Anthony Morrow

As for Morrow, he was on an absolute tear before a death in the family.  He missed 2 games and hasn’t been the same in 4 games since he returned, shooting 27% from the field after topping 50% all year.  Part of it might be mental.  Part of it might just be the law of averages.  Either way, last year he shot 48% from the field, and since he’s such a pure shooter, he’s probably much closer to the 50% guy even if he can’t keep that pace up all year.

Another factor here might be CJ Watson’s recent emergence, which I keep raving about in my weekly pickup posts.  (Although I’m sure Don Nelson will start inexplicably benching him once you’ve picked him up.)  But like I mentioned in my last post, I still like Morrow to find his touch again even if Watson continues to excel.  To reiterate, they have very different roles on the team, with Watson a distributor and Morrow a gunner.

Even with his horrible 4-game stretch, Morrow is ranked #44 by averages over the last month, mainly based on the strength of his 2.4 3pg and amazing efficiency before these last 4 games.  He probably won’t end up that high, but if you can steal him away for an under-performing middle rounder like Mike Bibby, Ron Artest, or Boris Diaw, consider yourself lucky.

Channing Frye

Frye is an “Approach with Caution” guy to me.  I’ve been waiting for his shots to stop falling all year, as he’s never taken close to this many attempts (especially 3’s) his entire career.  But even when Robin Lopez came back, Frye kept getting big minutes and delivering.  His recent 4-game slump (where he’s still hit 4 3’s) is probably just a result of the law of averages, as he was on fire to start the year.  It might also be worth noting that two of those games came against Dwight Howard and Andrew Bynum/Pau Gasol, not exactly the easiest front lines to go up against.  The other two games came against Dirk Nowitzki and Nene Hilario/Kenyon Martin, some of the more mobile big men in the league (and thus guys who could contest Frye on the perimeter).

I’m a little wary of the inconsistency, but if you can stomach that, I think it’s still safe to expect an Andrea Bargnani-ish combination of 3’s/blk when all is said and done.  Factoring in decent percentages, Frye could still finish the year as a top 60 player, although please don’t overpay.

And speaking of Bargnani, I think he’s a great buy low candidate right now as well.  In fact, I just traded Aaron Brooks for him in one league.  He’s not even ranked in the top 100 over the last month after a sizzling start to the year, in large part because a sprained ankle and confidence issues.  But head coach Jay Triano still wants Bargnani to be aggressive, and anyone who noticed AB’s post-all star splits from last year (which is also when Triano came aboard) knows what AB is capable of.

Andrew Bynum

After his last few underwhelming rebounding games, Andrew Bynum might be the biggest prize on this list.  Yes, I know.  If you’re a regular reader of Fantasy Hoopster, I said Bynum would be at his rock bottom during Gasol’s first week back.  Well, I was wrong because after Bynum bounced back in Gasol’s second week, Drew took another downturn last (Gasol’s third) week.

But here’s a safe bet: Pau Gasol is not going to get 20 reb every night.  In fact, if you look at Gasol’s game log and Bynum’s game log, you’ll see Pau went through a similar rough rebounding stretch just before his back-to-back 20 reb outburst, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Bynum rebounds with a nice rebounding stretch eventually as well.  (See what I did there?  It’s called clever word play being a dork.)

Sure enough, if you look at both their game logs last year, you’ll notice they took turns dominating for games at a time.  So sadly, it doesn’t look like they’ll both be able to produce monster games on the same night.  But Bynum still averaged 14 and 8 with 1.8 bpg last year alongside Pau.  With improvements in both his offensive and defensive skill sets (and mpg), I think he can up those numbers to 16 and 8 with 2 bpg.  Add in his impactful FG% and solid FT% for a C, and that’s a top 30-40 finish.  If you need a reference point, check out Greg Oden’s ranking by Yahoo averages: 11 and 8 with 2.3 bpg and solid %s = #36.

In other words, I think this week is just one of those bad stretches for Bynum, and next week could very well be one of the good ones.  I might not trade a first, second, or even third-round draft pick for him, but if you can convince Bynum’s owner that Gasol has officially crushed his value, you might be able to steal him for a middle-rounder.

[And on a side note, Bynum is also getting majorly out-(offensive) rebounded by Gasol, which tends to happen when you become a black hole anytime anyone feeds you the ball... because it's kind of hard to rebound your own fallaway jumpers.  If/when Bynum becomes truly comfortable alongside Pau, hopefully his forced shot attempts will decrease, while his offensive rebounds, easy putback attempts, and maybe even assists might creep up again.  But this might just be wishful thinking...]

Which of these buy low options is the best "value" right now?

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

1 Comment

Week 7 Recap (Raymond Felton is a model of efficiency) and Week 8 Pickups

In Week 7, Rip Hamilton and Michael Redd returned from injury.  Allen Iverson returned from the grave.  Several fast-starters hit a wall.  Raymond Felton did his best Chris Paul impersonation.  And in the biggest news of all, Danny Granger did his best, well, Danny Granger impersonation.  (And Jose Calderon might have done his Jose Calderon impersonation as well.)

Is Raymond Felton turning into a crafty veteran?  Because here he sure looks like that old dude at the Y who somehow uses his elbows when he shoots.  (Getty Images)

Is Raymond Felton turning into a crafty veteran? Because here he sure looks like that old dude at the Y who somehow uses his off-elbow when he shoots. (Getty Images)

Danny Granger

I already posted an immediate reaction to Granger’s injury, and a lot of it holds true.  As a lot of you agreed, Mike Dunleavy is the guy to own, especially after a monster performance against the Wizards Friday.  Roy Hibbert indeed shifted into the starting lineup and has taken about 12 shots per game since DG went down, but he only hit those shots in one game where he went off for 20 and 9 (on his birthday).  Once those shots start falling, he’ll be a very useful fantasy C over the next month.  I’d expect somewhere in the neighborhood of 14 and 8 with 1.5 bpg.  And last but not least, Tyler Hansbrough has had three very solid performances, averaging about 18 and 7 with 1.7 spg.

Raymond Felton

It’s already almost been a month since Stephen Jackson was traded to Charlotte, and there are some clear patterns emerging.  First of all, I decided to play my “wild card” guess on Gerald Wallace, predicting that Jackson’s arrival would spark him, so I’ll pat myself on the back for that.  I also took an educated guess that Raymond Felton’s AST would go down, which was also true (barely), but I didn’t expect his value to skyrocket to the tune of a #57 ranking over the last month (Yahoo averages).


FG% FT% 3PM PTS REB AST STL BLK TO
Raymond Felton .482 .769 0.9 11.9 3.2 5.1 2.2 0.1 1.6

There’s a few things working in Felton’s favor here.  First of all, he’s enjoying what might be his most efficient stretch in his career, shooting 48% from the field (career 40%) with only 1.6 TO per game (career 2.7) over the last month.  A lot of that has to do with taking less shots because of Jackson, and also more efficient shots playing alongside another playmaker for once.  Over the last week in particular, he’s shooting 60% from the field with 3.7 spg, which probably qualifies him as a sell high candidate… Read the rest of this entry »

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

No Comments

Week 6 Recap (Starring Kevin Love as Troy Murphy) and Week 7 Pickups

I'm so sad I can't even make fun of Oden's 58-yr-old face.  Oops I did it again.  (Getty Images)

I'm so sad I can't even make fun of Oden's 58-yr-old face. Oops I did it again. (Getty Images)

Week 6 featured the return of Chris Paul and Troy Murphy Kevin Love, although the “return” on everyone’s minds doesn’t come until tomorrow night in Philadelphia.  It also featured the fall of one of my favorite sleepers on the year.  Greg “Sigh” Oden.

Chris Paul

In case anyone forgot, Paul returned to the lineup earlier than expected to remind everyone why he’s the most valuable player in fantasy with a near triple-double (the CP3 way): 16 pts, 15 ast, and 8 stl.

Some other immediate ramifications: Peja Stojakovic’s shot attempts sunk to 10 after enjoying about 13 per game during Paul’s absence (although in Peja’s defense he was returning from a minor injury).  Emeka Okafor saw an immediate boost in productivity, and I expect David West to follow shortly, in case you were looking to BUY LOW on either.  And Devin Brown (2% owned in Yahoo leagues) is emerging as a fantasy-viable player as the starting SG, totaling 11 treys in Paul’s last 4 (complete) healthy games.

Kevin Love (and Al Jefferson)

Love did his best impersonation of Troy Murphy in his first two games of action, averaging 14.5 pts and 10.5 reb to go with 2.0 3pg.  The 3’s were a pleasant surprise and after hitting only 2 all of last year, it looks like he’ll take at least 1 or 2 attempts per game this year.

Meanwhile, Al Jefferson enjoyed his two best rebounding games in a while, totaling 25 in Love’s first two games back.  It might seem a little counter-intuitive, but I like this trend to continue, even when Love is inserted into the starting lineup.  As I mentioned back when Love got injured, Jefferson doesn’t have to shoulder the entire rebounding load anymore, as the other team will actually have to box out another legitimate rebounder now.  The other contributing factor?  Jefferson has looked lackadaisical at times this year, but not the last two games.  Energy is contagious around Love, and even though the Wolves won’t be fighting for a playoff spot anytime soon, I like Jefferson to play with a little more fire now that their squad has a legit chance to win every most some nights.

If you can convince Big Al’s owner that Love will actually eat into his stats, he could still be a nice BUY LOW option if you can get him at a reasonable price. Read the rest of this entry »

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

No Comments

Schmuck Bait: Amare Stoudemire (buy low!)

I'd be wearing shades if I just got pummeled by Andrew Bynum and friends too. (Getty Images)

I'd be wearing shades if I just got pummeled by Andrew Bynum and friends too. (Getty Images)

There were only two games on Thursday night, with one line that really jumped out at me…

Amare Stoudemire

With 8 pts and 5 reb on 2-15 shooting, Stoudemire easily had his worst game of the season on Thursday, the third of three very mediocre games in a row (although two of them were blowouts where he didn’t top 26 min).  I actually had a chance to see the game at Staples last night (thanks for the tix, Frank), and honestly, it was one of those games that didn’t look as bad (for Amare) in person as it did on paper.  (Although the missed dunk was slightly embarrassing.)

That being said, I think he is at his absolute lowest BUY LOW point of the season right now, for a few reasons:

The Tough Schedule

As Bright Side of the Sun pointed out, the Suns were finishing a back-to-back, which also happened to be the 4th game in 5 nights, which also happened to be the 7th game in 10 nights (with 6 of those 7 games on the road).  And even though an eye injury doesn’t seem as serious as, say, a knee injury, Amare still had to sit out several months this year.  So you can imagine how winded he was trying to guard Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom last night (which, by the way, just might be the best combo of size, speed, and strength to contain someone like Stoudemire).

The Robin Lopez factor?

Stoudemire is only averaging a mediocre 7.9 rpg and sub-1 bpg, not to mention an uncharacteristic 71% on FT.  For the latter, he’s shot over 80% over the last four years, so I’m not worried about that.  As for REB, Stoudemire has never been an elite rebounder, so I wouldn’t be surprised if that hovers between 8-9 per game.

Read the rest of this entry »

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

4 Comments

Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Eye-Opening Lines from Week 2

The only thing that can stop Kaman so far is Kaman himself.  Or Reggie Evans' right hand.  (AP)

The only thing that can stop Kaman so far is Kaman himself. Or Reggie Evans' right hand. (AP)

Week 2 had plenty of surprises, including a fantasy stud who keeps getting better, some old-timers rising from the dead, some sleepers living up to the hype, and plenty of potential free agents who might be able to help your squad.

THE RICH GET RICHER

Chris Paul

First of all, I just want to point out one of the sickest stats of this young season.  As if there was any doubt who the (statistically) best fantasy player in the league is, Paul has hit a ridiculous 72% of his threes this year.  (He’s only hitting 64% of his overall shots though.  Slacker.)

ZOMBIELAND

Meanwhile, a handful of fantasy old-timers (some older than others) have seemingly risen from the dead to put up top-notch fantasy stats.

Andrei Kirilenko

In 4 November games, AK-47 approached his pre-Boozer/Deron AK-47 numbers with 1.8 spg/bpg to go along with 13 ppg and solid %’s, good for a top 25 Yahoo ranking by averages.

Chris Kaman

Kaman’s monster season continued in week 2.  His game log speaks for itself.  Sell high, anyone?

Andrew Bogut

It’s been a couple years since Bogut was a top-tier fantasy C, but last week he sure played like one, averaging 18 and 10 with 1/2 spg/bpg.  With Michael Redd coming back in the next week or so, I’m not sure Bogut will continue to get 14 shots per game, but he’s clearly found his offensive rhythm again.

Read the rest of this entry »

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

4 Comments