Posts Tagged Carlos Boozer

Trade Fallout: McGrady, Thomas, Robinson, Salmons, Boozer(?)

Thanks to the recession and the possibility of an NBA lockout next season, trading is fast and furious this season.  I’ll try to rank the biggest gainers by the end of today, as you’ll need to be quick to grab some of these names off FA lists.  So far, among potentially available pickups, Andray Blatche appears to be the biggest winner, with JaVale McGee, DeAndre Jordan, Craig Smith, Donte Greene, and Francisco Garcia trailing.  But more on that later.

You should be checking Rotowire, Rotoworld, and Adrian Wojnarowski’s Twitter feed (all in the right-hand column) up until the trade deadline of 3 pm EST and even a couple hours after, as some trades come in late.  Here’s some of the latest chatter I haven’t covered yet:

Tracy McGrady to NY (after all)

McGrady is worth a flyer in most leagues.  With Larry Hughes headed to SAC, Donte Greene and Francisco Garcia’s prospects look slightly dimmer, and I’d probably rather gamble on McGrady.

Meanwhile, for those of you looking for assists, keep an eye on Chris Duhon’s new backup, Sergio Rodriguez.  They could very well swap roles by the end of the season.

John Salmons to MIL

Salmons will likely start at SG and gets an immediate upgrade.  Charlie Bell loses his starting job, while Carlos Delfino might lose some touches.

Tyrus Thomas to CHA

Thomas gets a boost in CHA as his playing time will likely increase.  Boris Diaw might take a slight hit, while Gerald Wallace’s rebounding numbers might also dip some.

Nate Robinson to BOS

Initially I didn’t like this move for Nate, but check tonight’s game to see what his his role will (roughly) be.

Carlos Boozer to MIA?

Apparently, UTA and MIA are in last minute trade talks.  As a Paul Millsap owner, I’m hoping this happens.  As a D-Wade fan, I’m also hoping this happens.

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Week 16 Recap (That was short) and Week 17 Pickups

WEEK 16 RECAP

After a shortened week and a lackluster dunk contest, I have to admit the All Star game itself was kind of exciting, at least for an exhibition game.  You could tell the 108,000+ spectators helped to motivate the players (or distract, in the case of one Deron Williams).

Hmm, did anything else happen last week?  Well, there was that trade.  And oh yeah, Stephen Curry put up a ridiculous triple-double (36, 10, and 13 with 7 treys) thanks to a buzzer-beating rebound with the help of one of the most clutch box-outs I’ve ever seen…by Anthony Tolliver (more on him below).  Check out the 6:30 mark for the play:

In fact, Curry has been so impressive lately, I’m not even going to mention those two other guys until they show me they’re capable of making this a Fantasy ROY race again.

See, I told you Week 16 was short.

WEEK 17 PICKUPS

As has been the theme around here lately, most of these pickups will actually be speculative long-term adds based on trade rumors.  Others will be named Anthony Tolliver.  (p.s. Anthony Morrow and Darren Collison have both cleared the 50% ownership mark required for this list, but make sure neither are taken before continuing below.)

Andray Blatche (34%)

See my post from over the weekend.  But essentially, with Brendan Haywood out of the picture and Antawn Jamison likely (but not surely) to follow, the door is open for Blatche to get 35+ minutes a night.  In 4 games as a starter this year, Blatche is only averaging 11 ppg and 7.5 rpg with 1.8 bpg in 34 mpg, but that was as a starting PF playing alongside Haywood.  Last year, he averaged 12 ppg and 6 rpg with ~1 spg/bpg in 28 mpg as a starting C without Haywood.  Project that to 35 mpg, and those numbers come out to roughly 14 ppg and 8 rpg with 1+ spg/bpg.  Add in the Wizards’ great playoff schedule in H2H leagues, and you want to own this kid.

Drew Gooden (28%)

I also like Gooden’s value to take a step up as he’ll get more consistent minutes in WAS (assuming he isn’t flipped to a contender).  In fact, the only downside to owning Blatche will be seeing Gooden gobble up double-digit boards on certain nights, while Blatche only snatches 5 or so.  That being said, I’d still prefer Blatche for his steals and blocks, but Gooden will be an excellent source of rebounds.

Anthony Tolliver (7%)

Curry and Tolliver probably won't lead Golden State to many W's this year.  Good thing we live in a fantasy world.  (Getty)

Curry and Tolliver probably won't lead Golden State to many W's this year. Good thing we live in a fantasy world. (Getty)

Gasp!  What is this — a player who likely doesn’t stand to benefit from a trade on this list?  Well, with the rate that Monta Ellis, Corey Maggette, and the rest of the Warriors get injured, Tolliver is essentially getting theboost in minutes a trade would have.  (Not to mention Andris Biedrins actually has been mentioned in some rumors.  But then again, who hasn’t this year?)  There are so many different ways to hype Tolliver, but I’ll just go with his averages from the last 3 games: 17 ppg and 8 rpg with 1.3/1.0/0.7 3s/stl/blk.

The Warriors recently decided to cut Speedy Claxton’s valuable expiring contract to keep Tolliver (a move that angered many GS fans), so you can expect management will give him plenty of minutes to prove himself the rest of the way.  I recently picked up Tolliver, then dropped him for Blatche.  If Carlos Boozer doesn’t get traded, I’m dropping Paul Millsap for this kid.

[02/18/10 UPDATE -- Boozer didn't get dealt, but Ronnie Brewer did, freeing up time for both Andrei Kirilenko and Millsap.  Add in the fact that Millsap has been on fire lately and looks to get 30+ mpg, and no, I am in fact not dropping him for Tolliver at this point.  Just to clarify...]

Robin Lopez (38%)

He sputtered a bit last week, but with Amare Stoudemire trade rumors swirling faster than a Mid-Atlantic snowstorm, Lopez is worth owning (or at least keeping a close eye on) over the next 3 days.

J.J. Hickson (9%)

Speaking of Amare trade rumors, Hickson will be a likely beneficiary of any trade the Cavs make because the Cavs will likely be bringing in a stud PF (Amare, Jamison, or Troy Murphy), leaving a nice, empty starting PF spot on the other team.  Of course, Hickson wouldn’t have LeBron James feeding him for easy scores anymore, but considering the opposing team would most likely be rebuilding (except in the case of the Suns), and Hickson should get more run than he did/does in CLE.

Keep an eye on:

Wow, I didn’t realize this list was so F-C heavy.  Here are some other guys to keep an eye on (including G’s!), either due to trade speculation or strong play: Brad Miller and Taj Gibson (43% and 10% respectively — Joakim Noah still hurting and Tyrus Thomas on the trade block), Ryan Gomes (32%), Marcus Thornton (38% — coming back from injury and should still benefit from Chris Paul’s absence), DeJuan Blair (25%), George Hill (38% — better with Tony Parker healthy?), Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (8% — 11 rpg over last 3), Jared Jeffries (8%), T.J. Ford (33% — don’t get your hopes up, but back in rotation), Marquis Daniels (2%), Charlie Bell (4% — a trey in 12 straight games)

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Injury Timeout(s): Tony Parker and Carlos Boozer

According to Rotoworld, Tony Parker will miss “several games” with an ankle injury, which means George Hill — who has already been very productive since starting at SG (see my latest pickups) — will get an extra boost in value.  He’s only taken in 14% of Yahoo leagues, up from 8% over the weekend and sure to rise by the end of the week.

Meanwhile, with Carlos Boozer suffering a calf strain last night, Paul Millsap is the obvious beneficiary.  Since Millsap is already taken in most leagues (75%), this is more a reminder that you might want to actually start him now (depending on Boozer’s status).

If you’re thinking more long-term, once Parker returns, Hill will likely slide back to the starting SG spot where he’s already been fairly productive.  As for Millsap, he gets a huge boost in long-term value if a) Boozer’s injury turns out to be serious or b) Boozer is dealt by the trade deadline.  Depending on what you need, I think they’re both worth stashing, and Millsap has a higher risk/reward payout.

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Schmuck Bait: Amare Stoudemire (buy low!)

I'd be wearing shades if I just got pummeled by Andrew Bynum and friends too. (Getty Images)

I'd be wearing shades if I just got pummeled by Andrew Bynum and friends too. (Getty Images)

There were only two games on Thursday night, with one line that really jumped out at me…

Amare Stoudemire

With 8 pts and 5 reb on 2-15 shooting, Stoudemire easily had his worst game of the season on Thursday, the third of three very mediocre games in a row (although two of them were blowouts where he didn’t top 26 min).  I actually had a chance to see the game at Staples last night (thanks for the tix, Frank), and honestly, it was one of those games that didn’t look as bad (for Amare) in person as it did on paper.  (Although the missed dunk was slightly embarrassing.)

That being said, I think he is at his absolute lowest BUY LOW point of the season right now, for a few reasons:

The Tough Schedule

As Bright Side of the Sun pointed out, the Suns were finishing a back-to-back, which also happened to be the 4th game in 5 nights, which also happened to be the 7th game in 10 nights (with 6 of those 7 games on the road).  And even though an eye injury doesn’t seem as serious as, say, a knee injury, Amare still had to sit out several months this year.  So you can imagine how winded he was trying to guard Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom last night (which, by the way, just might be the best combo of size, speed, and strength to contain someone like Stoudemire).

The Robin Lopez factor?

Stoudemire is only averaging a mediocre 7.9 rpg and sub-1 bpg, not to mention an uncharacteristic 71% on FT.  For the latter, he’s shot over 80% over the last four years, so I’m not worried about that.  As for REB, Stoudemire has never been an elite rebounder, so I wouldn’t be surprised if that hovers between 8-9 per game.

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Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Eye-Opening Lines from Week 2

The only thing that can stop Kaman so far is Kaman himself.  Or Reggie Evans' right hand.  (AP)

The only thing that can stop Kaman so far is Kaman himself. Or Reggie Evans' right hand. (AP)

Week 2 had plenty of surprises, including a fantasy stud who keeps getting better, some old-timers rising from the dead, some sleepers living up to the hype, and plenty of potential free agents who might be able to help your squad.

THE RICH GET RICHER

Chris Paul

First of all, I just want to point out one of the sickest stats of this young season.  As if there was any doubt who the (statistically) best fantasy player in the league is, Paul has hit a ridiculous 72% of his threes this year.  (He’s only hitting 64% of his overall shots though.  Slacker.)

ZOMBIELAND

Meanwhile, a handful of fantasy old-timers (some older than others) have seemingly risen from the dead to put up top-notch fantasy stats.

Andrei Kirilenko

In 4 November games, AK-47 approached his pre-Boozer/Deron AK-47 numbers with 1.8 spg/bpg to go along with 13 ppg and solid %’s, good for a top 25 Yahoo ranking by averages.

Chris Kaman

Kaman’s monster season continued in week 2.  His game log speaks for itself.  Sell high, anyone?

Andrew Bogut

It’s been a couple years since Bogut was a top-tier fantasy C, but last week he sure played like one, averaging 18 and 10 with 1/2 spg/bpg.  With Michael Redd coming back in the next week or so, I’m not sure Bogut will continue to get 14 shots per game, but he’s clearly found his offensive rhythm again.

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Fantasy Basketball Draft Rankings: 126-150

I’ve finished updating my draft rankings from 101-150.  I’ll post it in two different entries, to make it a little more readable.  Be sure to check out the complete list from 1-150 on the Draft Rankings tab, complete with one-liners.

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Fantasy Basketball Busts 2009-10

If you drafted Noah in the third round of your 56-team league, congratulations.  And seek help immediately

If you drafted Noah in the third round of your 56-team league, congratulations. And seek help immediately (Chris McGrath/Getty Images)

Fantasy drafts are all about getting value.  If you land Derrick Rose on your squad, that’s great.  If you land Derrick Rose on your squad in the second round?  Only great if you’re in a 24-team league.  When labeling people “busts,” I’m mainly trying to point out guys that are probably not going to provide good value for their average draft position (ADP).  So if you happen to draft one of the guys below, it’s not necessarily a bust if you drafted him late enough.

GUYS WHO SHOULD BE ON TEAMS, JUST NOT YOURS

Kevin Garnett, BOS, PF and Tim Duncan, SA, PF, C

Obviously, if these guys slide to the third round, maybe even early second, you probably have to take them.  But both are on the downside of their careers.  Although KG says he’s healthy, his minutes will likely be monitored all year.  As for TD, his minutes have already decreased in 7 of the previous 8 seasons.  It doesn’t help that both BOS and SA added depth to their rosters in the offseason, BOS with Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels and SA with Antonio McDyess, Richard Jefferson, and Theo Ratliff.  Although Daniels and Jefferson aren’t even bigs, their scoring is likely intended to take some pressure off Garnett and Duncan.

Mehmet Okur, UTA, PF, C

Lost in the Carlos Boozer vs. Paul Millsap battle is the fact that they’re not the only ones affected by a crowded frontcourt in UTA.  In fact, Okur’s minutes already trended downward month-to-month last year, with lows in March and April (when both Boozer and Millsap were healthy).  News out of UTA also has it that Andrei Kirilenko put on some weight this summer, supposedly for durability reasons, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the post at some point.  And it doesn’t help that Okur’s 3PA have declined the last three seasons (although his 3P% has increased).  If you’re looking for a 3-pt shooting C, there are plenty of cheaper options: Al Harrington, Andrea Bargnani, and Rasheed Wallace to name a few.

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Fantasy Basketball Draft Rankings: 91-100

Fantasy basketball draft rankings: 91-100

These rankings are based on a standard 9-category format, with a slight leaning towards H2H leagues, although differing strategies for roto leagues are noted when applicable.


Player Team POS Analysis
91 Kevin Love MIN PF, C As the starting PF for the Wolves, Love should flirt with double-doubles nightly.  How will a healthy Big Al affect his stats?  Love’s FG% was erratic month-to-month last year, but it should stabilize this year with Jefferson attracting so much attention (as well as due to Love’s own sophomore progression).  The defensive numbers are more of a crapshoot, but the way this kid hustles, he should contribute some in both STL/BLK.
92 Mario Chalmers MIA PG With Wade handling the ball so much, I don’t think Chalmers can improve wildly on his rookie season.  But I am looking forward to seeing slight upticks in PTS, AST, 3PM, and STL (and he was already at 2 spg last year).
93 Mike Bibby ATL PG While Bibby is bound to lose some minutes and AST to Crawford this year, I still like him to pop a couple 3′s per game.  And like his two other backcourt mates, I like a slight increase in his efficiency as he learns to mesh with his fellow playmakers.
94 Francisco Garcia SAC SG, SF While I don’t like how Nocioni ate into his playing time at the end of last season, it’s difficult to find a consistent 1/1/1 guy this late in the draft.  None of his individual numbers stand out, but with his versatility he should finish in the top-80 by averages.
95 T.J. Ford IND PG As the lone true distributor on last season’s squad, I’m still surprised Ford only averaged 5.3 apg.  But with Danny Granger and Brandon Rush’s continued improvement (along with Jarrett Jack’s departure), I like Ford to eclipse at least 6 apg.  His month-to-month splits last year suggest he was already headed that direction, until a late-season shake-up to the starting lineup left him on the bench.
96 Mike Conley MEM PG Conley’s sophomore bump was delayed, but it happened in the nick of time to save some fantasy teams (just not the teams that drafted him).  So of course the logical move was for MEM to bring in Allen Iverson.  It took Conley half a season to get accustomed to playing alongside O.J. Mayo.  I wouldn’t be surprised if it takes Conley a while to adjust to AI as well, but he should produce eventually.  I might let someone else draft him and try to trade for him early in the season.
97 Allen Iverson MEM PG, SG AI is difficult to project because who knows where he will end the season?  If he stays in MEM, this might actually be too early to draft him.  But based on his skill level (and name recognition, for potential fantasy trades), this seems about right.  After all, he still averaged 5 apg and 1.5 spg in a less-than-ideal situation last year.
98 Nate Robinson NY PG, SG Like Francisco Garcia, Robinson is one of those guys who was a past sleeper, but didn’t pan out quite as much as people hoped.  As a result, he could slip into the later rounds of the draft, where he becomes a nice value pick.
99 Blake Griffin LAC PF Last year was the year of the rookie, and as a result, I expect people to overvalue rookies (which is usually the case anyway) this year.  Griffin is certainly capable of 15+ ppg while contributing some everywhere else, but I’ll let other people overpay for him.
100 Paul Millsap UTA PF, C If Boozer is dealt, you’ll be getting top 50 value in the eighth or ninth round of your draft.  Even if Boozer isn’t dealt, Millsap should provide usable if unspectacular numbers.  (Update: Millsap started a recent preseason game at SF for the Jazz.  It looks like Jerry Sloan will figure out a way to get him on the court, one way or the other.)

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Fantasy Basketball Draft Rankings: 51-60

Fantasy basketball draft rankings: 51-60

These rankings are based on a standard 9-category format, with a slight leaning towards H2H leagues, although differing strategies for roto leagues are noted when applicable.


Player Team POS Analysis
51 Tony Parker SA PG As I mentioned above, his numbers probably won’t be too far off from Derrick Rose’s.  But I guess since he’s already been around the block a few times, everyone’s gunning for the young guy.  Sorry, Tony.  As a consolation, you’re dating Eva Longoria.
52 Andris Biedrins GS C Nellie still drives me crazy.  Biedrins was wildly erratic month-to-month last year, largely because of playing time.  Plus, it’s hard to predict what kind of sickness Anthony Randolph will bring to the table.  At the least, Biedrins should still be good for a double-double with solid FG% and 1+ bpg.
53 Rudy Gay MEM SF I was looking for him to have a nice bounce-back year…until MEM signed Zach Randolph.  Then Allen Iverson.  (Sound familiar?)  Still, as a potential 1/1/1 guy I expect Gay to sneak into  the Top 50, but probably not the Top 25 as I was thinking pre-Z-Bo and AI.
54 Jason Richardson PHO SG, SF While Richardson has become somewhat of a category specialist in recent years, he is suddenly the #2 scoring option on a rejuvenated Suns team. It’s unfair to expect him to shoot 49% like he did with PHO last year, but I wouldn’t be surprised by a near-return to his GS numbers, except in AST. (Side note: With his F-eligibility in Yahoo leagues, I’d rank him a little higher.)
55 Andrew Bynum LAK C He has the upside (not to mention the favorable schedule in H2H leagues) but can he finally stay healthy?  I think he’s worth the gamble in the late fifth round of drafts for 12-team leagues, but you might be able to wait a little longer.  Just try not to remind anyone of that dominant 5-game stretch right before Kobe went Tonya Harding on his knee last year.
56 Mo Williams CLE PG He’ll be more comfortable in his second year as LBJ’s sidekick, but I expect that to help his FG% more than his AST.  LeBron simply handles the ball too much for Williams to average more than 5 apg.  Still, the 3′s plus CLE’s great schedule are nice positives.
57 Michael Redd MIL SG, SF Coming back from a major injury, Redd’s season is tough to project, although reports indicate he should be ready by training camp.  With only Andrew Bogut and Hakim Warrick as proven scorers, Redd will likely fill up the PTS and 3PM columns when he’s healthy.  However, his FG% and AST could suffer as a result of playing with so little talent around him.
58 Shawn Marion DAL SF, PF Reunited with J-Kidd in an up-offense won’t totally resurrect the Matrix’s career. But it means he will likely provide great value in the middle rounds. While I think his PTS and REB will tick back up, because of his age I’m more hesitant about his STL/BLK, although he still has 1/1/1 potential. The 3′s are also a difficult call. If he starts taking them again during the preseason, I’d bump him up. (Update: It seems like about one in eight people I talk to absolutely loves Marion this year, meaning if you are one of those people, you’ll likely need to draft Marion in the third/fourth rounds.)
59 Mehmet Okur UTA PF, C With Boozer and Millsap both healthy and taking up minutes, Okur could see a slight dip in his minutes and production this season. Last year, he also attempted fewer 3′s than he had in the previous few seasons. While this translated into better efficiency last year, this year be prepared for a slight dip across the board, especially in PTS and REB.
60 Ron Artest LAK SG, SF Artest has never played on a team with as much talent as the Lakers, and consequently won’t be asked to do as much on the offensive end.  His PTS will surely decrease, but theoretically with a boost in efficiency.  On the defensive end, I like him to approach his lifetimes averages of 2.1 spg and 0.6 bpg as he will be able to take more risks with Bynum and Gasol behind him.

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Fantasy Basketball Draft Rankings: 31-40

Fantasy basketball draft rankings: 31-40

These rankings are based on a standard 9-category format, with a slight leaning towards H2H leagues, although differing strategies for roto leagues are noted when applicable.


Player Team POS Analysis
31 David West NO PF What West lacks in flashiness he makes up for in consistency.  He would be a great complement to a riskier early round pick, say an Al Jefferson or Amare Stoudemire.  Even if you don’t have either of those guys, drafting consistent players like West also frees you up to make calculated risks in other rounds, like a Camby or a Bynum.
32 Kevin Martin SAC SG While Martin has increased his scoring every year in the league, he’s done it at the expense of his FG%.  I’m not sure starting alongside a rookie PG will help in that respect.  But the scoring, 3′s, and amazing FT% (at a high attempt rate) are why you draft Martin anyways.
33 Brook Lopez NJ PF, C Although D-Rose and Mayo get the hype, B-Lo should be the first sophomore taken in fantasy drafts.  With VC out of town, I wouldn’t be surprised if Lopez averages 17+ PTS while shooting solid percentages and blocking 2 shots per game.  Although Duncan will go much earlier, I’d actually rather have Lopez next year.
34 Troy Murphy IND PF, C Is Murphy a one-hit wonder?  I don’t think he’ll be quite as good as last year.  (He shot 45% on 3′s.)  But there are several reasons to believe last year wasn’t a fluke.  His career 3P% is actually 39.7%, meaning if he keeps shooting about 5 3′s per game, he should still make 2.  Not bad for a C.  Also, whenever he’s gotten 30+ mpg, he’s averaged double-digit REB that season.  Despite the drafting of Hansbrough, with no Jermaine O’Neal around, Murphy should still continue to log big minutes.
35 Elton Brand PHI PF, C If C-eligible in your league, I’d consider taking him earlier, as all reports are that his shoulder and Achilles have healed.  Just be prepared for a slow start, as the Sixers no longer have a true PG and Brand will essentially be starting over.  Again.
36 Carlos Boozer UTA PF, C Like Brand, I would consider taking him earlier if he’s C-eligible in your league.  However, if you play him as a C, just prepare for his mediocre bpg accordingly.  Also, don’t be surprised if Millsap steals a few minutes from him.  All reasons why I’m choosing brandy over booze.
37 Rajon Rondo BOS PG After nearly averaging a triple-double in the playoffs last year, Rondo is on a lot of people’s “Must-Have” lists.  But while it was one of the most impressive 14-game stretches in basketball last year, he only really came close to replicating it one month during the regular season (Feb).  That being said, I would love to own Rondo (despite the lack of 3PM and low FT%), but I think someone else will overpay for him before I have the chance.  Oh well.
38 Vince Carter ORL SG, SF You’re probably wondering why I have VC ranked so low.  I’ll be the first to admit, I always underrate him.  Every year.  And he always proves me wrong.  Maybe he burned me once when he was still Air Canada.  Maybe I should be telling my psychiatrist this instead of all of you.  On the positive side, there are few better sources of AST from the F position than Carter.  And a motivated VC (as he should be with a championship contender) could be a scary VC.
39 Gilbert Arenas WAS PG It comes down to this: Who is a sure bet you would not be embarrassed to draft even if Agent 0 explodes?  If there are none left, scoop Arenas up.  Since Arenas is a risk, if I land him I probably won’t draft similarly risky players early in the draft, such as Baron, Brand, or Camby, although I will take risks later.  (ADDENDUM: Looks like people are gambling on Gil as early as the low-30′s, so if you crave the Hibachi, adjust your draft order accordingly.  Just please don’t pay too much.)
40 Baron Davis LAC PG Like Josh Smith and Gerald Wallace, Davis is a perennial injury risk.  However, the Clippers have assembled a nice pool of talent, and, playing in his hometown, you have to think Baron has something to prove after last year’s debacle.  You can probably get him in the fourth round (just be sure to draft some depth at PG).  Although the DNPs will pop up, I like the Clippers to contend for a playoff spot this year (yes, I actually said that), which means Baron should be playing/trying deep into the fantasy playoffs…

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