Posts Tagged Brandon Jennings

Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Why trading LeBron* might deliver you a H2H Championship

This will be my last post for the next couple weeks, as I’m going on vacation.  (Later, suckas!)  But before I leave, I just wanted to point out an important date coming up in 10 days: March 4, the trade deadline for most Yahoo leagues.  And if you own LeBron James, this might be your last chance to trade for Kevin Durant.

Hold on, WTF?!?!

I’ll explain further down below, but first: If you’re in a H2H league — and this post is primarily for H2H leaguers — this is your last chance to make your team as bulletproof as possible for the fantasy playoffs.  I’ve already done so for my own teams, but I suggest you click forward on your team’s weekly schedule to see if there are any particular weeks where the NBA scheduling gods have screwed you over.  These next 10 days are your best bet to make the schedule work in your favor.

Even if CP3 comes back at full strength and LeBron continues to dominate, Durant might be the fantasy MVP of H2H leagues. (Getty)

For example, skip ahead to Week 22 (Mar 22-28), the first or second week of most leagues’ fantasy playoffs.  You might notice that all (or almost all) of your players play on Mon/Wed/Fri/Sun, while nobody (or close to nobody) plays on Tues/Thur/Sat.  Well, if you’re only allowed to start 6, 8, or even 10 players per day, that means some of your players — maybe even some of your studs — might be riding the bench on Mon/Wed/Fri or Sun of that week.

Somehow, that’s what happened in one of my leagues, and I partially corrected the situation by making a trade I probably would’ve done anyway, by shipping out Al Jefferson and Brandon Jennings for Nene Hilario and Mike Miller.

Let’s ignore the fact that Big Al has been losing minutes to Darko (Darko?!) Milicic lately, or that Jennings’ FG% has amazingly declined every single month, or that Josh Howard is out for the year, perhaps rejuvenating Miller’s season.  Even if the players involved were exactly even, I just gained 3 extra games for that week because Miller has a Tues/Wed/Fri/Sat sked that week, while Nene has a Tues/Wed/Fri/Sun sked.  Meanwhile, Big Al and Jennings both have Mon/Wed/Fri/Sun skeds, like nearly everyone else on my squad, and I possibly wouldn’t even have used either that week.  (This particular league only has 6 starting spots per day.)  In other words, I just made my road to a three-peat in this league a little bit more manageable.  (Yes, that’s me kissing my own ass.)

Every league has different settings, so check to see when your playoffs start.  The first round is usually Week 22.  Before the season began, I actually did an analysis of which teams have the best playoff schedules — factoring in both total games played and if these games occur on “Off-Days”, or days with only a few games on the NBA schedule.  (Although, again, double-check your own schedule against the NBA schedule to see where you need help.)  This might help you get started though:

BEST PLAYOFF SCHEDULES

[Note: The specific numbers below are for leagues with playoffs from Mar 22 to Apr 14.  Apparently the Yahoo default is Mar 15 to Apr 4 this year.  Most of this still applies, but use it as a general guide, and I'll point out any big discrepancies.  For games by week (without the Off-Days), check out Basketball Monster's Schedule Grid.]

Chicago — plays 13 times over the last 3.5 weeks, and in leagues where you can only start 6-8 per night, CHI is especially useful as they have games on 3 Off-Days, 2 of which are during the finals.  How can you use this info for your benefit?  Well if you’re ballsy, buy low on Joakim Noah.  He’s a gamble, but if you’ve already secured a first round bye (and even more time for him to heal), he might be worth it.

There's a good chance all of the guys above will be in play during the fantasy playoffs. (Getty

Dallas — plays 13 times with 3 Off-Days.  I’ve been targeting Jason Kidd for a while…

[Note: In leagues where the playoffs begin Mar 15: DAL only has 2 games the first week.  In other words, only make a deal for Kidd if you're almost guaranteed of a first round bye.]

Houston — plays 14 times with 1 Off-Day.  As Trevor Ariza becomes option #3 or 3.5 in that HOU offense, I like his efficiency to increase, making him a potentially cheap addition this late in the season.  Kevin Martin is a good buy low target as well.

Washington — plays 14 times with 1 Off-Day.  By the way, yes, this fantasy-friendly playoff schedule is yet another reason why I’ve been so big on Andray Blatche.  When your opponent scrambles for spot starts from guys like David Andersen in Week 22, you’ll especially enjoy Blatche’s double-doubles.

Milwaukee, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, and Toronto — all play 14 times, but none on Off-Days.

Which brings us back to our initial topic: Why trading LeBron* might deliver you a H2H Championship.  Well, that asterisk has Durant’s name written all over it.  I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that KD will be on a higher percentage of H2H champion rosters than LBJ.  OKC’s fantasy playoff schedule is a big part of the reason; keep reading for the other half of the story…

[Note: In leagues where the playoffs begin Mar 15: WAS, HOU, and SA are the only teams to play 4 games each week.]

WORST PLAYOFF SCHEDULES

Cleveland and New Orleans — they both only play 11 times over the last 3.5 weeks.  But it’s not like you’d ever trade LeBron away…  Right?  Well, maaaaybe for Durant? Talk about ballsy, but 3 extra games over the entirety of the playoffs — one extra game per week — just might be worth it.  (Although in fairness, this is more like comparing 3 LeBron games + 1 ‘To be determined’ game vs. 4 Durant games.  But on the other hand, if you did decide to trade LeBron for Durant, you could probably get a pretty nice upgrade on another player — probably a PG to make up for the assists.  So many factors…)

[Note: In leagues where the playoffs begin Mar 15, CLE actually has a 4-game week for the first week, whereas OKC only has a 3-game week.  However, those of you with LeBron probably have a first round bye anyway.  So, for rounds 2 and 3 of your playoffs, you're actually comparing 3 LBJ games to 4 KD games each week.]

Also, New Orlean’s hideous fantasy schedule, including only 4 games during the finals (one and a half weeks in most leagues) is one reason why I didn’t gamble and trade for Chris Paul.

[Note: In leagues where the playoffs begin Mar 15, NO actually has a nice schedule, starting with a 4-game week.  While CP3 is a risky play for that week, he does have a nice 4-game week in the finals for these leagues.  If you have a first-round bye, Kidd or CP3 are nice gambles, with Kidd being safer of course.]

MIXED BAG PLAYOFF SCHEDULES

Denver — only plays 12 times, but 4 of those games come on Off-Days, including 2 during the finals.  Again, the Off-Days are more important in leagues starting less than 10 players per night, but this is a big reason why I targeted Nene in that specific league.

[Note: In leagues where the playoffs begin Mar 15, DEN is a great play.]

Portland — only plays 11 times, but 2 of those games come on Off-Days.

[Note: In leagues where the playoffs begin Mar 15, POR is still tricky, with only 8 games over 3 weeks, but 2 of those games on Off-Days.  Meanwhile, ORL is also tricky, with only 9 games over 3 weeks, but 2 of those games on Off-Days as well.]

And here, again, is the Off-Days chart, if I haven’t made this confusing enough already.  (No, this isn’t a Verizon 3G coverage chart.  “4G” means the team is playing on a night with only four NBA games on the schedule.  For example, take Week 1 of the fantasy playoffs (Week 22 overall, NOT Week 21).  Of Dallas’ 4 games that week, it plays one of them on a night with only 4 games on the schedule and another on a night with only 3 games on the schedule.)

Happy shopping.

In H2H leagues, who would you rather have during the fantasy playoffs (starting Mar 15)?

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In H2H leagues, who would you rather have during the fantasy playoffs (starting Mar 22)?

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Week 17 Recap (Snatch Blatche) and Week 18 Pickups

Week 17 was all about the trades.  It saw the emergence of a perennial sleeper candidate (or two), the triumphant (at least for now) return of a former first rounder, and the early deaths of some promising fantasy seasons… all the result of big-time trades.  The Recap:

Not to rain on T-Mac's parade, but another former Magic/Rocket, Steve Francis, also had a solid Knick debut with 16, 5, and 4. Just saying... (Getty)

Cavs lose!  Cavs lose!  Cavs lose!

That’s right, the new-look Cavs are 0-3 after acquiring Antawn Jamison.  Is it the curse of Big Z?  Or is it a hex of fantasy owners of Jamison, Ilgauskas, J.J. Hickson, and Anderson Varejao?  Of course, the trade had obvious fantasy ramifications (basically, it sucked for all the guys mentioned above), but why is the losing streak so important?  Because it means the Cavs and Lakers are in a near-dead heat for the top record in the NBA… which is great news if you own guys like LeBron or Kobe, who probably can’t afford to rest late into the season as the race for home court advantage comes down to the wire.

(Meanwhile, Jamison put up a dud in his first game but bounced back on Sunday.  All those other bigs in CLE?  I’m not sure they’ll ever bounce back.)

T-Mac + D’Antoni = WTF

If you look at my rankings of the biggest trade deadline winners (and losers), I had Tracy McGrady ranked near the top of the second tier (although of course qualified that by saying he had the biggest upside of anyone on the list).  Well, he made his case for being ranked near the top of the first tier in his first game as a Knick, going off for 26, 4, and 5 with great percentages.  Hell, he even shocked himself, as he didn’t expect to play more than 20 min and was admittedly exhausted by the end of the OT game.

I’ve always said the main reason I would own McGrady would be to sell high on him after a hot streak.  Well, this might be the right time if you can get a good bounty in return.  However, Mike D’Antoni has said the Knicks are going to run the rest of the way (See: Wilson Chandler starting at PF instead of SG, where he has started all year).  And with T-Mac playing nice and saying he’s willing to come back to NY at a discount next year, D’Antoni just might keep running him out there for 30+ mpg to build chemistry.  Because of his injury risk, I’d be inclined to sell high, but don’t sell yourself short.

Fantasy ROY Race

First it was Tyreke Evans vs. Brandon Jennings.  Then it was Evans vs. Stephen Curry.  Now is it Curry vs. Darren Collison?  Okay, that’s an overstatement.  But over the last three weeks, it’s been pretty close:


FG% FT% 3PM PTS REB AST STL BLK TO
Stephen Curry .434 .933 2.2 18.4 4.6 7.6 1.8 0.0 4.1
Darren Collison .473 .829 1.1 19.7 4.7 9.8 1.7 0.2 4.9

Of course, when Chris Paul returns, this race ends, but it just goes to show how valuable both have been over the last three weeks, and how valuable Curry will be the rest of the year.

WEEK 18 PICKUPS

I’m going to steal from myself and just reiterate some of the biggest trade deadline winners, with some slight adjustments given 3 days-worth of new info.

First of all, trade deadline winners like Andray Blatche (62%) , Tyrus Thomas (63%), T-Mac (74%), and Josh Howard (76%) have already cleared the 50% ownership mark in Yahoo leagues and will thus be excluded.  (I like them in that order by the way.)  The rest:

Casspi & Butler. Ambiguously gay photo, unambiguously solid fantasy pickups. (Getty)

Omri Casspi (33%)

Casspi posted 15, 5, and 3 with 3 steals in his first game with the new-look Kings.  Nothing flashy, but he should get relatively consistent minutes in SAC the rest of the way, as he and Evans are the clear building blocks of that team’s future.

JaVale McGee (17%)

It’s tough to find 11 ppg, 7.3 rpg, and 2.7 bpg off the FA list, but that’s exactly what McGee has delivered in 3 post-trade starts… and all while playing with a sprained wrist.

Rasual Butler (31%)

He can be streaky, but right now he’s streaking the right direction with 17 treys in his last 5 games.  It might take some time, but with Al Thornton out of the way and Travis Outlaw’s indefinite return, Butler could slowly make his was off this list by clearing the 50% hurdle.

C.J. Watson (18%)

Watson has reemerged with Monta Ellis starting to burn out.  Don Nelson recently stated he would not be running guys out for 40+ mpg sometime soon, which means Watson should/might start getting consistent playing time again.  So while I wouldn’t expect the 27, 4, and 4 with great percentages and ~2 treys/stl per game that Watson posted last week, I’d still expect useful fantasy stats.

DeAndre Jordan (5%)

Jordan had a mixed bag of results in the Clips’ first 3 games without Marcus Camby, averaging 8 and 8 with 2.3 bpg.  Those numbers might not be worth taking on his atrocious FT%, but if you’ve already punted that category, he’s a nice pickup.  If not, approach with caution.  (Also keep in mind that Drew Gooden has decided not to take a buy-out and will stay with the Clips.  Obviously Gooden cares about winning and not living in sunny southern California…)

Sergio Rodriguez (9%) and Eddie House (13%)

Rodriguez was the hot pickup after whispers that he might start in New York.  And even though he had a lackluster debut, he’d still be a big catch running the Knicks’ new old up-tempo offense.  Meanwhile, House — who has played and excelled for D’Antoni before — stepped right in and had a huge first game as the Knicks’ super-6th man.  Looks like they both have a chance to make a splash in NY, but just remember that Rodriguez has a real chance to average 8+ apg if/when he steps into that starter’s role before you give up on him.

Keep an eye on… everyone from my trade deadline post, with some tweaks:

Taj Gibson (24% — I’m slightly downgrading him from my previous list because Joakim Noah has already returned; check Noah’s status and think about selling high on Gibson if Noah’s foot starts feeling better), Nate Robinson (52% — been dropped so much he might actually be available; keep an eye on his new role in BOS), Al Thornton and Hakim Warrick (45% and 14% — slight upgrades after debuts on new squads), Jonas Jerebko (9%), Shannon Brown (6% — check Kobe’s status), Mario Chalmers (33% — check Rafer Alston’s status), and last but not least, Anthony Tolliver (6%)

Which trade deadline winner would you prefer on your squad?

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RotoWaste of Time: Is Brandon Jennings bipolar?

Yesterday, I read a shocking headline.  Brandon Jennings revealed to the world (through Twitter, of course) that he is bipolar.  That’s a pretty heavy bombshell coming from any professional athlete, let alone a rookie who has been through clear ups and downs on the court this year.  NBA blogger Bethlehem Shoals (yes, of FreeDarko.com) went on to explore the ramifications of Jennings’ revelation on the public perception of mental disorders in a pretty well thought-out piece.  If you have a moment, it’s worth a look, but here are some excerpts:

“Jennings isn’t (Delonte) West, or what we thought (Michael) Beasley to be, for the simple fact that nothing appears to be wrong. That leaves us grasping for motivations, or at least rushing to figure out the consequences. Was it a boast? An off-hand remark? And doesn’t this turn ‘bipolar athlete’ from tabloid material into a potential PSA?”

“For Jennings to share this now only adds some depth, even gravitas, to a player still known as much for his hair as his stellar rookie season. That the reaction over Twitter has been muted suggests that Jennings played this right, and that unless you’ve crossed a line, being bipolar is now socially acceptable.”

And then Jennings tweeted this.

That’s just wrong, Young Money.  (Okay, not really.  It was kind of funny.  Sorry, Bethlehem Shoals.)  Then again, maybe Jennings wasn’t kidding after all.  Maybe he just meant that his home/away splits are bipolar.  (Sorry, Young Money.  Please don’t twit all over me.)

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20-Second Timeout: Nate Robinson

Nate Robinson will be making his first start at PG tonight for the Knicks.  Last year as a starter, Nate averaged 21 ppg, 5.6 rpg, and 5.0 apg to go with 1.6 treys and 1.3 spg on a respectable 44% from the field.  Unfortunately for him (and his chances to keep the starting job), the Knicks only went 3-8 in those 11 games, including 1-4 when Nate started at PG.  (They were 2-4 when he started at SG opposite Chris Duhon.)

The Knicks were 32-50 overall on the year last year, a .390 win percentage, which was sadly better than any of the splits with Nate as a starter.  (On a side note, the Knicks were 4-4 in games Nate missed altogether last year.)  And you wondered why Mike D’Antoni never wanted to give him a chance.

Add in the fact that the Knicks are apparently interested in Acie Law (likely as part of a bigger deal, but nonetheless still confusing considering their logjam in the backcourt), and I would be cautiously optimistic about Nate’s new role.  He’s currently available in 42% of Yahoo leagues, so keep a close eye on tonight’s box score.  (I should probably also mention I own him in both of my most competitive leagues.)

By the way, Nate versus Brandon Jennings should be a fun matchup tonight, especially for Knicks fans, considering they passed on Young Money in the draft…

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Week 14 Recap (Who Dat? It’s Darren Collison) and Week 15 Pickups

Week 14 was business as usual for the most part… until it was reported Sunday that Chris Paul will undergo arthroscopic surgery on his left knee and miss 1-2 months.  Before you even read anything else, run out and pick up Darren Collison, who had 18 assists in Paul’s absence on Saturday.  More on that below, but first the (abbrev.) recap:

Darren Collison, it's time to shake up some fantasy basketball leagues.  (Getty Images)

Darren Collison, it's time to shake up some fantasy basketball leagues. (Getty Images)

WEEK 14 RECAP

  • Mike Miller exploded for 25, 9, and 8 including 7-10 from downtown against the Knicks on Saturday.  When news of Gilbert Arenas’ legal woes first broke, I thought Miller would give Randy Foye a run for his money in terms of being the most valuable pickup.  It’s just one game (and chances are the Knicks won’t play zone against WAS when they meet again this week), but at the very least make sure Miller isn’t a FA in your league.
  • Attention, Tyreke Evans and Brandon Jennings: Stephen Curry is running away with the fantasy ROY race.
  • The Detroit backcourt is slowly getting healthy… putting a dent in the fantasy values of every member of that team, as there are only so many minutes to go around.
  • Channing Frye might be better as a sixth man, as he’s become a much more efficient player.  Lou Williams: better as a sixth man?  Not so much.  (Although Lou posted a nice line Sunday, it seems whenever Jrue Holiday or Willie Green are playing well, Lou is the odd man out.)  Both are worth holding, especially Frye, as the Suns and 76ers figure to make deals before the trade deadline.  (I dropped Lou for Paul Millsap in one league though.)  And if Amare Stoudemire gets shipped out of Phoenix, Frye could very well end up back in the starting lineup starting alongside Robin Lopez.
  • Andrew Bynum is learning to coexist with Pau Gasol.
  • And after nearly getting suspended earlier in the week, J.R. Smith had his best week of the year, averaging 17 ppg, 3.3 threes and 2.3 spg in Carmelo Anthony’s absence.  Meanwhile, Kenyon Martin continues to dominate the boards, hurting Nene Hilario’s value.  I expect that to even out (some) in the long term though, and since KMart is a perennial injury risk, I would sell high.  (Nene could be a sneaky buy low as well, as nagging injuries have slowed him down some lately.)

WEEK 15 PICKUPS

In New Orleans, everyone's saying "Who Dat?" lately.  Why, it's Darren Collison again.  Pick him up.  (Getty Images)

In New Orleans, everyone's saying "Who Dat?" lately. Why, it's Darren Collison again. Pick him up. (Getty Images)

Darren Collison (15%)

At the time I’m writing this, Collison has already jumped up from being owned in 2% of Yahoo leagues to start the week to 15% and rising.  He filled in admirably for Paul on Saturday night and could deliver some teams to fantasy victory in the coming months.

Marcus Thornton (25%)

Likewise, Thornton should benefit from Paul’s absence.  I was already going to include him on this list as he was recently inserted into the starting lineup, but now his playing time/value increases even more.  In 4 games as a starter (one without CP3), Thornton is averaging 18 ppg and 2.3 treys.

Goerge Hill (23%)

Continuing with the point/combo-guard theme, Hill is a great add with Tony Parker out in the short term.  And, like Thornton above, Hill had recently been inserted into the starting lineup anyway, where he was already being productive.  I give a slight nod to Thornton in preference, but only because the Hornets will need him to step up without CP3 the next 1-2 months, whereas Parker’s injury isn’t as serious.

Brandon Rush (39%)

One of my preseason sleepers, Rush is quietly averaging 13.6 ppg and 5 rpg to go with 2.1/0.6/1.0 threes/stl/blk per game over the last two weeks.  Like I mentioned last week, Danny Granger’s return has really sparked him.

Robin Lopez (40%)

There’s no reason Lopez should be owned in less than half of Yahoo leagues (unless all his owners are dropping him for Collison).  If Amare Stoudemire does in fact get traded, Lopez should get all the minutes he can handle, with Steve Nash spoon-feeding him buckets.  He had a mediocre week last week, but he’s still worth a calculated gamble in my book.

Jared Jeffries (5%)

If you need defensive help in deeper leagues, Jeffries has averaged 1.3 spg and bpg over the last two months.

Keep an eye on: Keyon Dooling (2% — check Devin Harris’ status), Brad Miller (41% — resurrected his season this past week), Kris Humprhies (7%), Chase Budinger (3% — second guy off the bench with Kyle Lowry out), Goran Dragic (16%)

And before I go…

Corey Brewer (54%)

He’s made my “Keep an eye on” list the last several weeks, and Brewer has finally cleared the 50% hurdle with another stellar 3-pt shooting week.  Add in the fact that MIN only has 2 games this week, and you’re probably wondering why I’m including him here though.  Well, I just needed an excuse to post this video.  (Apologies, Derek Fisher.)

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Week 13 Recap (It’s all about the…) Week 14 Pickups

Week 13 was really all about the pickups.  I haven’t seen this many players resurrect their fantasy basketball seasons/careers in a week that didn’t involve any major trades in a long while.  But first, the recap…

Mo Williams

The biggest fantasy news of the week involved Mo Williams’ shoulder sprain, which will sideline him 4-6 weeks.  He passed the injury bug to his replacement, Delonte West (fractured finger in shooting hand), and while I still like West over the next several weeks, it might take him a few games to heal and the another few games to regain his shooting touch, so temper your expectations.

I'm sorry, Grant Hill.  This is just wrong.  (Getty Images)

I'm sorry, Grant Hill. This is just wrong. (Getty Images)

Corey Maggette

The biggest fantasy news of the month is Corey Frickin Maggette.  I’ve hated him for years and vowed never to own him (unless I owned Dwight Howard in a roto league).  Now I hate him because I vowed never to own him.  He continues to put up top 10 numbers — amazingly, despite averaging less than ONE three/stl/blk per game — which is a tribute to his efficiency.  (He’s averaging 29 ppg on ~15 shot attempts per game.)  The fact that I want to underline this entire paragraph makes me hate him even more.

Logic says to sell high, although I probably wouldn’t do so unless I was getting a near-sure bet in return.  (That GSW squad just can’t seem to stay healthy, so Maggette will likely get his minutes.)  But, because of the sub-1 threes/stl/blk, once Maggette’s 55% FG rate dips closer to his career averages, he’ll likely plummet out of top 10 status back into the top 50 range.  That’s still nice, but if you can snag someone like, say, Brandon Roy from a panicked owner (in a packaged deal), go for it.  Hey, you never know…

ROY Race

Aided by Monta Ellis’ gimpy anke, Stephen Curry continued to take steps forward, and in my mind he took a big step ahead of the pack in the fantasy ROY race, averaging 23, 5, and 5 with a whopping 3.8 threes and 1.5 spgTyreke Evans, on the other hand, had a mediocre week (still averaging 20+ ppg with great percentages), although in his defense that entire SAC squad had a pretty terrible week.

And while he’s in danger of becoming an Also Ran, Brandon Jennings showed some signs of life, averaging 18 ppg and 7 apg with 2 threes/spg (albeit still shooting sub-40% from the field).  The emergence of Carlos Delfino and return of Jerry Stackhouse — both of which (at least for this week) seem much more like playmakers than Michael Redd ever was this year — seems to be having a positive effect on Young Money.  Sure, his big games this week also came against PGs that couldn’t quite abuse him (Aaron Brooks and Jonny Flynn), but at the least Jennings’ trade value has some life again, in case you need to unload that FG% off your squad.

And in other Week 13 news…

Randy Foye continued to hit his shots until a 3-9 dud on Sunday, which made me feel a little better about ’selling high’ on him earlier in the week.  What also made me feel better: Dwyane Wade’s awesome 2 games after my deal went through.  (In case you have no idea what I’m talking about, I traded Iggy, Foye, and Yi Jianlian for Wade + 2 scrubs who turned into Carlos Delfino and Drew GoodenRobin Lopez was sadly picked up before my trade cleared waivers.)

Rashard Lewis is still missing a lot of shots, but also seems to be a more active member of the offense.  There is hope…

F my life — Joakim Noah has plantar fasciitis.  He seemed to be upbeat about the situation, but if he’s just being optimistic, Tyrus Thomas owners have to be thrilled.  (Thomas had 6 blk in 20-something minutes against the (undersized) Rockets in Noah’s DNP over the weekend.)  And by the way, here’s a message to FourPointPlay — I know you rigged my last poll!!  Lol.

Andre Miller continues to excel in Brandon Roy’s absence.

Lastly, Lou Williams’ fantasy season is on life support, but if you can afford to, I’d try to wait until the trade deadline next month before bailing on him.  Many think the 76ers will be active in trades, which might even include Lou but will more likely include Elton Brand or maybe even Andre Iguodala, the departure(s) of which would really help Lou’s fantasy life.  If you need more immediate assistance, see below.

WEEK 14 PICKUPS

It seems like we’ve reached a point in the fantasy season where a lot of managers (namely, the ones out of contention) have checked out.  This actually has a fairly significant impact on fantasy leagues — especially leagues that aren’t as deep — because it means there is a lot of talent in the free agent pool.  If you’re in a H2H league where a lot of these guys are available, it might actually pay off to cut those iffy players and start churning players.  (Although you probably want to hang onto some of these guys.)

Robin Lopez (42%)

Last week when I mentioned him, Lopez was owned in 7% of Yahoo leagues.  That’s up to 42% now, and it should be even more.  After Lopez posted two great lines to start the week, Channing Frye bounced back with a nice performance himself against CHI.  But it’s telling that Lopez and not Frye got the minutes in PHO’s next game against run-and-gun GSW.  Expect defenses to pay closer attention to Lopez in the future, but his starting job seems secure for now.

Since I think this site has more pictures of Robin Lopez than it can handle, I'll give Delfino some well-deserved publicity.  (Getty Images)

Since I think this site has more pictures of Robin Lopez than it can handle, I'll give Delfino some well-deserved publicity. (Getty Images)

Carlos Delfino (33%)

I’ll let the numbers speak for themselves: 16.5 ppg, 9.3 rpg, and 3.5 apg with 3.0 threes and 1.5 spg in 4 games last week.  Who knows if this can last, but you want to own Delfino while we all find out.

Drew Gooden (21%)

Gooden was projected by many to be the starting C in Dallas when the year began, but due to injury and Erick Dampier’s strong play, he’s mainly played a bench role.  Sunday may have just been a spot start (Dampier was a DNP-nagging injury), as Gooden probably matched up better against the more mobile David Lee anyway, but even in a bench role Gooden has quietly put up top 50 numbers (by averages) over the last month, with 10 and 8 to go along with ~1 stl/blk and great percentages before Sunday’s 15 and 16 outburst.

Delonte West (23%) and Daniel Gibson (8%)

West is the guy to own in February, but for this week Gibson will hit some threes and get some assists just being in the same building as LeBron.

Craig Smith (5%)

I mentioned that Rasual Butler (and Al Thornton) was worth long-term consideration after it was learned Blake Griffin would miss the entire season.  But it’s Craig Smith who has really thrived while not having to look over his shoulder.  He has solidified his place as the third wheel in that Clipper frontcourt, averaging 15 and 5 on 69% shooting over the last week.

George Hill (8%)

Hill has started three games in a row at SG and produced 16 ppg with 2.3 treys.  Keep an eye on this situation.

Other guys to pick up/keep an eye on: Mike Miller (44% — slowly coming around), Corey Brewer (42% — #38 in Yahoo rankings by averages last week), DeJuan Blair (29% — see last week), Matt Barnes (40%), Brandon Rush (26% — he’s been hot since Granger returned), Rasual Butler (30%), Chase Budinger (3% — if you need 3’s in deep leagues), Cartier Martin (1%).

Here's a tough decision some owners might currently be facing -- who would you rather own?

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Week 12 Recap (Raaaaaaaandy!) and Week 13 Pickups

Week 12 featured a franchise quickly forgetting its (once) franchise player, the return of another (once?) franchise player in Sacramento, and the continued (and now seemingly sustainable) dominance of a player playing with a purpose.

(By the way, “Raaaaaaaandy!” is actually spelled exactly correctly.  It’s a reference to Aziz Ansari’s character in the movie Funny People.  Check it out at LaughYourDickOff.com.  Yes, you read that right.)

Randy Foye got off to such a hot start as Agent 0's replacement, you knew Fantasy Hoopster had to trade him.  (Getty Images)

Randy Foye got off to such a hot start as Agent 0's replacement, you knew Fantasy Hoopster had to trade him. (Getty Images)

Randy Foye

Gilbert who?  Life went on in WAS without Gilbert Arenas, with Antawn Jamison picking up much of the slack.  But it was Foye who particular impressed this past week, playing the best stretch of his year, so of course I just traded him.  Was it the right move?  Who knows, but here’s my reasoning.

Reasons to sell high: He’s shooting well above his career FG% right now.  If Caron Butler or Jamison gets traded, that might translate into more points but at a less efficient rate, which equals a bad tradeoff in my mind (at least for my particular team).  Also, when Mike Miller returns that’ll likely dent into Foye’s AST totals.

Reasons to keep: Apparently he has the reins to the team.  He took shots at the end of both overtimes (missing both) against Chicago.  Maybe he just needed a new setting and style of offense to excel.  His only (current) competition at PG is technically considered a dwarf in certain countries.

Obviously, I leaned towards the former.  In my trade, I packaged Foye along with Andre Iguodala (I also threw in Yi Jianlian) for Dwyane Wade and a couple scrubs who I plan to drop for Luke Ridnour and another player to be determined.  Yes, I know I overpaid, but the trade made sense to me for several reasons, which I might point out in another post if people are interested.

Also, going back to an earlier post when Arenas was first suspended, back then I decided not to drop Nate Robinson for Foye, but then quickly decided to drop Tyrus Thomas instead.  I’m sure most of you have already figured out Foye is currently the hottest player of all three, although as exhibited on Saturday night, he’s not perfect.

Kevin Martin

Martin returned this week and quickly resumed draining threes again.  That’s not too surprising.  The more interesting subplot (or is it main plot now?) to this story involves his effect on a couple of Sacto’s rising rookies: Tyreke Evans and Omri Casspi.

Two games isn’t much of a sample, but it appears as if Evans won’t be affected too much at all — he still controlled the ball for the most part and his shot attempts were still there — while Casspi’s role in the offense was reduced.  This isn’t too surprising; even though Martin just signed a nice extension, I’d argue Evans is Sacto’s new franchise player now.  It’s still early, but I’m glad I didn’t advise anyone to sell high on Evans.  Sadly, I also didn’t have enough balls to advise trading for him from a panicked manager who might’ve sold him on the cheap.  Either way, if you own Evans I’d breathe a slight sigh of relief, although everything is fluid in fantasy of course.

As for Casspi, I think some of those shot attempts might come back, but probably not at a consistent enough level for him to be mentioned in the fantasy ROY race anymore.  Evans and Martin are going to get their shots, so that probably means a lot of inconsistency for the rest of the Kings, especially Casspi.

ROY Race

This hasn’t been much of a race lately, at least not between Brandon Jennings and Tyreke Evans.  (Hello, Stephen Curry with your 6 stl/fouls against MIL on Friday night.)  I just mentioned Evans has a great chance to retain most of his value even with KevMart back, but it’s the absence of Michael Redd that might revitalize Jennings’ season.  Jennings is clearly a rhythm shooter, and he never quite found the rhythm (or volume) for his shots with Redd back.  But now that he (and Andrew Bogut) are the primary offensive options in MIL again, Jennings has a chance to get back to his old numbers… although I wouldn’t expect him to shoot above 40%.  If you can handle the ugly shooting, you might be able to snag him with a lowball offer.

Samuel Dalembert

Dalembert has been on a tear the entire month of January, and his last couple games have been particularly sweet.  In the past, I’ve recommended him as a waiver wire pickup that people should sell high on if possible because of his historic inconsistency, but I think I’m changing my tune now, for two (non-stat-based) reasons.

Dalembert’s productivity (along with a lot of other NBA players) is often directly related to his motivation/focus.  Well non-stat-based reason #1 that I like Sammy D the rest of the way is because he really plays with more passion whenever Allen Iverson is on the court.  Back when Iverson was first signed by the 76ers, I mentioned Dalembert even had dreams that AI would return to the squad.  Man-crush or motivation?  Who knows, but it’s translated into great numbers for Sammy D.

Non-stat-based reason #2, on the other hand, is no joking matter at all.  Dalembert is a native Haitian, and in the two games since the tragedy in Haiti, a lot of people have been saying he’s played with a clear focus (14.5 ppg and 16.5 rpg with 2 bpg while shooting a combined 13-15 from the floor).  I hate to bring reality into a blog about pure fantasy, but if you’ve ever had something absolutely shitty happen to you in real life, I’m sure you can relate with “focusing on work” as a temporary escape.  I don’t think NBA players are an exception to that, and it looks like Dalembert might be playing with a heavy heart from here on out.

By the way, there are a ton of ways to help out with the earthquake in Haiti.  Here’s one organization that’s already been working there for 20 years that some friends of mine have volunteered for.  It’s called Partners in Health, and I know they make a difference if you’re worried about how your donations are spent.

standwithhaiti

And in other Week 12 (fantasy) news:

As the guys at GiveMeTheRock point out, Charlotte is on a roll, led by none other than Stephen JacksonGerald Wallace and Raymond Felton are still playing well, but the other big fantasy news out of CHA is Boris Diaw, who is finally adjusting to his new teammate.  Buy low if you can.

In LA, Pau Gasol returned from injury, and Andrew Bynum decided to put up another great line.  This is encouraging news if you own Bynum, although I wouldn’t expect it to be the norm.  I still expect Bynum to have many more night like this, but with some mediocre games sprinkled in.

In Chicago, Joakim Noah is on fire from the free throw line and the sole reason why I’ve risen a couple spots in that category so far this month in one roto league.

In Indiana, Roy Hibbert is on fire from everywhere… and that’s with Danny Granger and Troy Murphy back.  Remember when I said he’d average a double-double with 2 bpg back when he was mired in a slump?  Even I laughed at myself.  Expect some inconsistency, but I’m glad/relieved I still have him in all my leagues.

WEEK 13 PICKUPS

Since my top pick from last week is still owned in less than half of Yahoo leagues, I’ll just mention Kirk Hinrich (49%) first.  Okay, there.  Now onto to some fresh meat.

Rasual Butler (26%)

Just in case you were wondering who that guy who keeps hitting 3's for your team looks like... (Getty Images)

Just in case you were wondering who that guy who keeps hitting 3's for your team looks like... (Getty Images)

Okay, so he’s not exactly fresh because this is probably the fourth time he’s made this list.  Also, I alluded to this earlier in the week, but with Blake Griffin out for the year, both Butler and Al Thornton don’t have to look over their shoulders quite as much anymore.  I much prefer Butler (as does Mike Dunleavy Sr.), and he has a real chance to keep up his current pace of 13.8 ppg with 1.7 threes as starting SF (including 33 pts and 4 treys versus the Cavs Saturday night), albeit with some inconsistency.

DeJuan Blair (23%)

I mentioned Blair in a recent Eye-Opening Lines post.  Since then, the undersized center had 8 and 8 in a foul-plagued game against MEM.  If you need a big man, check him out.

Luke Ridnour (38%), Ersan Ilyasova (38%), and Carlos Delfino (6%)

I mentioned these guys last week, and I still like them to benefit from Michael Redd’s season-ending injury (roughly in this order).  At one point earlier in the year, Ridnour was actually ranked in the top 50 as he was an efficient source of 3’s and ast.  Meanwhile Ilyasova had already been solid in recent weeks, while Delfino exploded for 28 pts in his last game.

Robin Lopez (7%)

I’ve been waiting for Lopez to eat into Channing Frye’s minutes all year and it finally happened last week.  In PHO’s two most recent games, Lopez averaged 12.5 ppg and 4.5 bpg in 27 mpg (all season highs).  One of the games was a blowout; one was highly contested.  I’m not sure if this is a trend, but pay close to attention if you need blk.

Some guys I’ve spent plenty of ink on already:

Mike Miller (37% — no official word on return, but should be owned in most leagues), Martell Webster (47%), Matt Barnes (29% — if you’re worried about Rashard Lewis, it’s actually Barnes and not Vince Carter who is hurting him more)

Some other guys to keep an eye on:

Corey Brewer (34%), Jonas Jerebko (7% — back in the starting lineup…for now), Delonte West (21%), Steve Blake (10% — still hitting 3’s as a sub), Vladimir Radmanovic (5% — check status), Chuck Hayes (12% — last week’s averages were inflated by a monster 3OT game, but he was relevant earlier in the year), Earl Watson (10%), Jared Jeffries (1% — still a cheap source of stl/blk), James Posey (5%), Shannon Brown (2%), DeAndre Jordan (3% — check Chris Kaman’s status)

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Week 11 Recap (Out with the “0″ and in with the Grangerous) and Week 12 Pickups

I almost pulled off a deal that would've landed me Granger to go with Durant, but then Granger came back from injury a week early.  F my life.  (Getty Images)

I almost pulled off a deal that would've landed me Granger to go with Durant, but then Granger came back from injury a week early. F my life. (Getty Images)

Week 11 featured the early end to what was turning into a triumphant return for Agent 0, the mixed bag early return of a nicknameless fantasy stud, and one of my favorite parts of fantasy basketball that can never come too early… trade winds.

Gilbert Arenas

Don’t athletes only pay tribute to their fallen teammates after they’re… uh… dead?  Well, DeShawn Stevenson felt compelled to pay tribute to Arenas before the Wizards’ home game on Sunday after the WIzards’ top brass decided to erase Arenas from their programs, marketing campaigns, and memory.  Maybe “dead” is a little strong/inappropriate, but it’s looking more and more like Arenas is dead to the Wizards.

Yet Gilbert is still owned in 72% of Yahoo leagues, which tells me most of his owners are in denial.  Feel free to stay in that lovely state, at least for another week or so, if there are no quality FA left in your league.  But if there’s a hot item, jump on it.  The fact that Arenas’ infamous Twitter account is officially dead is probably more a sign of the times than a sign of remorse.

Although Randy Foye was the obvious favorite to take over at starting PG, I really liked Mike Miller as a better pickup last week because of his efficiency.  And while I still like him (and own him in one league), he already aggravated his calf injury in just his second game back.  So, Foye is the clear guy to own now, with Nick Young playing big minutes in Miller’s absence on Sunday as well.  Young is a nice start this week, assuming the Wizards won’t rush Miller back.  And I still like Caron Butler to pull it around… if he’s still a Wizard.

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Week 10 Recap (Starring Gilbert Arenas as a Washington Bullet) and Week 11 Pickups

Three explosive fantasy guards dominated the headlines in Week 10, with only one of them doing it for the right reasons.

Are you ready for your mug shot, or, er, close up, Mr. Arenas?  (The Canadian Press)

Are you ready for your mug shot, or, er, close up, Mr. Arenas? (The Canadian Press)

Gilbert Arenas

Is that a gun in your pocket or are you just happy to…  Oh.  That is a gun in your pocket.  Agent Zero made headlines for all the wrong reasons this week as he inexplicably brought/stored three guns at work.  In his defense though, he’s kind of a bonehead (and the guns were unloaded).  There are sources reporting everything from Hibachi trying to pull off a practical joke gone awry to Arenas and teammate Javaris Crittenton going Alien vs. Predator on one another over a gambling debt.  I have a feeling it’s a little closer to the former, but regardless of the intent, this doesn’t bode well if you own Arenas.

Some people, including Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo sports, think Arenas could be in store for an extended suspension.  David Stern is hard to predict, but if he decides to make an example of Arenas, Caron Butler and Randy Foye (in theory) would enjoy an immediate jump in value.  We should all know Arenas’ fate by Monday.  Keep your fingers crossed if you spent a third round pick on him.

Nate Robinson

KryptoNate came back down to earth on Sunday, but I think you can forgive him after his 41-pt, 6-reb, 8-ast effort on Friday night — single-handedly carrying the Knicks over the Hawks.  In his post-game interview, Robinson seemed genuinely humbled by his month layoff at the hands of Mike D’Antoni, and more importantly, in the game he seemed hungry.  He’s still available in 47% of Yahoo leagues.  (I added him in one league over the weekend.)

And on a side note, Larry Hughes hasn’t played the last 2 games.

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Week 9 Recap (All Carl Landry wants for Christmas is his 2-pt buckets) and Week 10 Pickups

Elbows to his face aren't the only high-percentage shots Carl Landry is taking lately.  (Getty Images)

Elbows to his face aren't the only high-percentage shots Carl Landry is taking lately. (Getty Images)

Week 9 featured the return of some quality fantasy backups, the emergence and re-emergence of some efficiency experts, and the re-emergence of an inefficiency expert.

Tyrus Thomas, Leandro Barbosa, and Jameer Nelson

All three guys returned this week, and I’m pretty psyched to have all three on one of my squads (Thomas and Barbosa as of two weeks ago).  Thomas made the biggest noise with a 21 and 9 performance vs. the Hornets Saturday night, while Barbosa had a couple solid games and Nelson was a little up-and-down.  Needless to say, all three should be taken in most formats.

Zach Randolph and Carl Landry

Meanwhile, two guys who started off the season with fairly pedestrian numbers have really stepped their games up over the last several weeks.  Don’t look now, but Z-Bo is averaging 23 and 14 in the month of December on 51% shooting from the field and a ridiculous 92% from the stripe.  Meanwhile, Carl “All I want for Christmas is my two front teeth” Landry has averaged 17.6 and 5.6 on a whopping 63% from the field and 86% from the stripe (and with a nice 7 attempts per game).

They’re also both relatively cheap trade targets, for different reasons.  Landry, because he’s still relatively unknown, and Randolph, because he’s traditionally known as only a “points and rebounds” guy, which is still mostly true (he’s also at 1.1 spg over the last month), but his efficiency has translated into a #28 ranking by Yahoo averages over the last month.  (Landry is #44.)  Both will likely drop off  some, but if you’re going to target either, you can probably get Landry at a much better value, although you might want to wait for him to stop having 20-point games before making an offer.

(And speaking of efficiency, I also wanted to note another potentially “cheap” guy.  Raymond Felton is ranked a ridiculous #14 over the last month, shooting 53% from the field and 90% from the line.  Again, he likely can’t keep that up, but he looks to have turned a corner with his improved shot selection.)

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