Posts Tagged Al Jefferson
Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Why trading LeBron* might deliver you a H2H Championship
Posted by fantasy hoopster in Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Strategy, Fantasy Basketball Trades on February 24, 2010
This will be my last post for the next couple weeks, as I’m going on vacation. (Later, suckas!) But before I leave, I just wanted to point out an important date coming up in 10 days: March 4, the trade deadline for most Yahoo leagues. And if you own LeBron James, this might be your last chance to trade for Kevin Durant.
Hold on, WTF?!?!
I’ll explain further down below, but first: If you’re in a H2H league — and this post is primarily for H2H leaguers — this is your last chance to make your team as bulletproof as possible for the fantasy playoffs. I’ve already done so for my own teams, but I suggest you click forward on your team’s weekly schedule to see if there are any particular weeks where the NBA scheduling gods have screwed you over. These next 10 days are your best bet to make the schedule work in your favor.
Even if CP3 comes back at full strength and LeBron continues to dominate, Durant might be the fantasy MVP of H2H leagues. (Getty)
For example, skip ahead to Week 22 (Mar 22-28), the first or second week of most leagues’ fantasy playoffs. You might notice that all (or almost all) of your players play on Mon/Wed/Fri/Sun, while nobody (or close to nobody) plays on Tues/Thur/Sat. Well, if you’re only allowed to start 6, 8, or even 10 players per day, that means some of your players — maybe even some of your studs — might be riding the bench on Mon/Wed/Fri or Sun of that week.
Somehow, that’s what happened in one of my leagues, and I partially corrected the situation by making a trade I probably would’ve done anyway, by shipping out Al Jefferson and Brandon Jennings for Nene Hilario and Mike Miller.
Let’s ignore the fact that Big Al has been losing minutes to Darko (Darko?!) Milicic lately, or that Jennings’ FG% has amazingly declined every single month, or that Josh Howard is out for the year, perhaps rejuvenating Miller’s season. Even if the players involved were exactly even, I just gained 3 extra games for that week because Miller has a Tues/Wed/Fri/Sat sked that week, while Nene has a Tues/Wed/Fri/Sun sked. Meanwhile, Big Al and Jennings both have Mon/Wed/Fri/Sun skeds, like nearly everyone else on my squad, and I possibly wouldn’t even have used either that week. (This particular league only has 6 starting spots per day.) In other words, I just made my road to a three-peat in this league a little bit more manageable. (Yes, that’s me kissing my own ass.)
Every league has different settings, so check to see when your playoffs start. The first round is usually Week 22. Before the season began, I actually did an analysis of which teams have the best playoff schedules — factoring in both total games played and if these games occur on “Off-Days”, or days with only a few games on the NBA schedule. (Although, again, double-check your own schedule against the NBA schedule to see where you need help.) This might help you get started though:
BEST PLAYOFF SCHEDULES
[Note: The specific numbers below are for leagues with playoffs from Mar 22 to Apr 14. Apparently the Yahoo default is Mar 15 to Apr 4 this year. Most of this still applies, but use it as a general guide, and I'll point out any big discrepancies. For games by week (without the Off-Days), check out Basketball Monster's Schedule Grid.]
Chicago — plays 13 times over the last 3.5 weeks, and in leagues where you can only start 6-8 per night, CHI is especially useful as they have games on 3 Off-Days, 2 of which are during the finals. How can you use this info for your benefit? Well if you’re ballsy, buy low on Joakim Noah. He’s a gamble, but if you’ve already secured a first round bye (and even more time for him to heal), he might be worth it.
There's a good chance all of the guys above will be in play during the fantasy playoffs. (Getty
Dallas — plays 13 times with 3 Off-Days. I’ve been targeting Jason Kidd for a while…
[Note: In leagues where the playoffs begin Mar 15: DAL only has 2 games the first week. In other words, only make a deal for Kidd if you're almost guaranteed of a first round bye.]
Houston — plays 14 times with 1 Off-Day. As Trevor Ariza becomes option #3 or 3.5 in that HOU offense, I like his efficiency to increase, making him a potentially cheap addition this late in the season. Kevin Martin is a good buy low target as well.
Washington — plays 14 times with 1 Off-Day. By the way, yes, this fantasy-friendly playoff schedule is yet another reason why I’ve been so big on Andray Blatche. When your opponent scrambles for spot starts from guys like David Andersen in Week 22, you’ll especially enjoy Blatche’s double-doubles.
Milwaukee, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, and Toronto — all play 14 times, but none on Off-Days.
Which brings us back to our initial topic: Why trading LeBron* might deliver you a H2H Championship. Well, that asterisk has Durant’s name written all over it. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that KD will be on a higher percentage of H2H champion rosters than LBJ. OKC’s fantasy playoff schedule is a big part of the reason; keep reading for the other half of the story…
[Note: In leagues where the playoffs begin Mar 15: WAS, HOU, and SA are the only teams to play 4 games each week.]
WORST PLAYOFF SCHEDULES
Cleveland and New Orleans — they both only play 11 times over the last 3.5 weeks. But it’s not like you’d ever trade LeBron away… Right? Well, maaaaybe for Durant? Talk about ballsy, but 3 extra games over the entirety of the playoffs — one extra game per week — just might be worth it. (Although in fairness, this is more like comparing 3 LeBron games + 1 ‘To be determined’ game vs. 4 Durant games. But on the other hand, if you did decide to trade LeBron for Durant, you could probably get a pretty nice upgrade on another player — probably a PG to make up for the assists. So many factors…)
[Note: In leagues where the playoffs begin Mar 15, CLE actually has a 4-game week for the first week, whereas OKC only has a 3-game week. However, those of you with LeBron probably have a first round bye anyway. So, for rounds 2 and 3 of your playoffs, you're actually comparing 3 LBJ games to 4 KD games each week.]
Also, New Orlean’s hideous fantasy schedule, including only 4 games during the finals (one and a half weeks in most leagues) is one reason why I didn’t gamble and trade for Chris Paul.
[Note: In leagues where the playoffs begin Mar 15, NO actually has a nice schedule, starting with a 4-game week. While CP3 is a risky play for that week, he does have a nice 4-game week in the finals for these leagues. If you have a first-round bye, Kidd or CP3 are nice gambles, with Kidd being safer of course.]
MIXED BAG PLAYOFF SCHEDULES
Denver — only plays 12 times, but 4 of those games come on Off-Days, including 2 during the finals. Again, the Off-Days are more important in leagues starting less than 10 players per night, but this is a big reason why I targeted Nene in that specific league.
[Note: In leagues where the playoffs begin Mar 15, DEN is a great play.]
Portland — only plays 11 times, but 2 of those games come on Off-Days.
[Note: In leagues where the playoffs begin Mar 15, POR is still tricky, with only 8 games over 3 weeks, but 2 of those games on Off-Days. Meanwhile, ORL is also tricky, with only 9 games over 3 weeks, but 2 of those games on Off-Days as well.]
And here, again, is the Off-Days chart, if I haven’t made this confusing enough already. (No, this isn’t a Verizon 3G coverage chart. “4G” means the team is playing on a night with only four NBA games on the schedule. For example, take Week 1 of the fantasy playoffs (Week 22 overall, NOT Week 21). Of Dallas’ 4 games that week, it plays one of them on a night with only 4 games on the schedule and another on a night with only 3 games on the schedule.)
Happy shopping.
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Week 11 Recap (Out with the “0″ and in with the Grangerous) and Week 12 Pickups
Posted by fantasy hoopster in Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Injuries, Fantasy Basketball Pickups, Fantasy Basketball Strategy, Fantasy Basketball Trades on January 11, 2010
I almost pulled off a deal that would've landed me Granger to go with Durant, but then Granger came back from injury a week early. F my life. (Getty Images)
Week 11 featured the early end to what was turning into a triumphant return for Agent 0, the mixed bag early return of a nicknameless fantasy stud, and one of my favorite parts of fantasy basketball that can never come too early… trade winds.
Gilbert Arenas
Don’t athletes only pay tribute to their fallen teammates after they’re… uh… dead? Well, DeShawn Stevenson felt compelled to pay tribute to Arenas before the Wizards’ home game on Sunday after the WIzards’ top brass decided to erase Arenas from their programs, marketing campaigns, and memory. Maybe “dead” is a little strong/inappropriate, but it’s looking more and more like Arenas is dead to the Wizards.
Yet Gilbert is still owned in 72% of Yahoo leagues, which tells me most of his owners are in denial. Feel free to stay in that lovely state, at least for another week or so, if there are no quality FA left in your league. But if there’s a hot item, jump on it. The fact that Arenas’ infamous Twitter account is officially dead is probably more a sign of the times than a sign of remorse.
Although Randy Foye was the obvious favorite to take over at starting PG, I really liked Mike Miller as a better pickup last week because of his efficiency. And while I still like him (and own him in one league), he already aggravated his calf injury in just his second game back. So, Foye is the clear guy to own now, with Nick Young playing big minutes in Miller’s absence on Sunday as well. Young is a nice start this week, assuming the Wizards won’t rush Miller back. And I still like Caron Butler to pull it around… if he’s still a Wizard.
20-Second Timeout: Pau Gasol, Omri Casspi, and Tyrus Thomas
Posted by fantasy hoopster in 20-Second Timeout, Fantasy Basketball Injuries, Fantasy Basketball Pickups, Fantasy Basketball Strategy on December 18, 2009
Pau Gasol
According to Hoopsworld and Ball Don’t Lie, Gasol is on the verge of signing a 3-year extension starting in the $18.7-$19.7 million range. Hmmm… 18.7 and 19.7? That seems like about what Gasol has been averaging lately, as his owners (and Andrew Bynum’s owners) can tell you.
I don’t think Gasol’s production will drop off a cliff after he signs this extension, but if you own Bynum you must be thinking: “Just sign the F-ing thing already!!!!!!!” Maybe then Gasol will feel a little less need to prove himself (as if he really needs to) and he might let Bynum grab a few boards…just like Rajon Rondo started letting some of the other Celtics grab a few assists after he signed his extension (Rondo’s 4 games before signing extension: 11.8 apg. 4 games after extension: 6.3 apg). There’s nothing like job security to decrease productivity! At least in the NBA…
I still think Bynum is a great buy low target, and news of Gasol’s extension (oddly) reinforces that idea more (somehow). I just offered Joakim Noah for him in one roto league where I’m far out ahead in REB and need some help in FG%. That deal might not be ideal in every league (or perhaps, any league), but I think it’s the right long-term move for that specific squad. (More on that below.)
Omri Casspi
According to (early but yet to be confirmed) reports by the usually reliable Sam Amick of the Sacramento Bee, it looks like Casspi is getting his second straight start tonight against the T-Wolves. His first start was (at least according to Coach Westphal) was for matchup purposes, as Westphal wanted the more mobile Casspi to cover Antawn Jamison. However, in facing a not-exactly “mobile” front line of Al Jefferson and Kevin Love, if Casspi gets the starting nod tonight it could be more of a permanent move. He’s already made several of my weekly pickup lists, and while he might be inconsistent, this young Israeli is probably now roster-able in most formats.
Spencer Hawes looks like he will become a super-sub, and his splits as a sub were actually better than his splits as a starter, at least before his last dud off the bench. I just dropped Hawes for someone else in this post (hint: see below) in one tightly contested H2H league, but am being more patient with the young FC in a deeper roto league.
Tyrus Thomas
Thomas was back at non-contact drills Thursday. His projected return is still vague, but Sam Smith of the Bulls Blog projects it as next Saturday (10/26) versus Thomas’ home state Hornets. While there are still some question marks about Thomas’ role with the Bulls (especially with Taj Gibson playing well), I think he’s worth picking up if you need help in the defensive cats. I just picked him up in one league where I need steals, as he’s pretty solid there for a PF. And if those Thomas-Al Harrington trade rumors from a few weeks back turn out to be true, Thomas’ value would certainly spike.
Thomas’ impending return is also one reason why offering Noah for Bynum wasn’t as hard to stomach. Even if Thomas gets traded, Harrington will be another body to alleviate Noah of the big minutes he’s been logging (34 mpg… 10 more than last year) — and Noah reportedly needed a cortisone shot before his last game.
Week 6 Recap (Starring Kevin Love as Troy Murphy) and Week 7 Pickups
Posted by fantasy hoopster in Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Pickups, Fantasy Basketball Strategy on December 6, 2009
I'm so sad I can't even make fun of Oden's 58-yr-old face. Oops I did it again. (Getty Images)
Week 6 featured the return of Chris Paul and Troy Murphy Kevin Love, although the “return” on everyone’s minds doesn’t come until tomorrow night in Philadelphia. It also featured the fall of one of my favorite sleepers on the year. Greg “Sigh” Oden.
Chris Paul
In case anyone forgot, Paul returned to the lineup earlier than expected to remind everyone why he’s the most valuable player in fantasy with a near triple-double (the CP3 way): 16 pts, 15 ast, and 8 stl.
Some other immediate ramifications: Peja Stojakovic’s shot attempts sunk to 10 after enjoying about 13 per game during Paul’s absence (although in Peja’s defense he was returning from a minor injury). Emeka Okafor saw an immediate boost in productivity, and I expect David West to follow shortly, in case you were looking to BUY LOW on either. And Devin Brown (2% owned in Yahoo leagues) is emerging as a fantasy-viable player as the starting SG, totaling 11 treys in Paul’s last 4 (complete) healthy games.
Kevin Love (and Al Jefferson)
Love did his best impersonation of Troy Murphy in his first two games of action, averaging 14.5 pts and 10.5 reb to go with 2.0 3pg. The 3’s were a pleasant surprise and after hitting only 2 all of last year, it looks like he’ll take at least 1 or 2 attempts per game this year.
Meanwhile, Al Jefferson enjoyed his two best rebounding games in a while, totaling 25 in Love’s first two games back. It might seem a little counter-intuitive, but I like this trend to continue, even when Love is inserted into the starting lineup. As I mentioned back when Love got injured, Jefferson doesn’t have to shoulder the entire rebounding load anymore, as the other team will actually have to box out another legitimate rebounder now. The other contributing factor? Jefferson has looked lackadaisical at times this year, but not the last two games. Energy is contagious around Love, and even though the Wolves won’t be fighting for a playoff spot anytime soon, I like Jefferson to play with a little more fire now that their squad has a legit chance to win every most some nights.
If you can convince Big Al’s owner that Love will actually eat into his stats, he could still be a nice BUY LOW option if you can get him at a reasonable price. Read the rest of this entry »
Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Week 4 Recap and Week 5 Pickups
Posted by fantasy hoopster in Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Injuries, Fantasy Basketball Pickups, Fantasy Basketball Strategy on November 22, 2009
Don't call it a comeback, Brand's been here all year long. He's just finally making some noise. (Getty Images)
WEEK 4 RECAP
They’re Ba-aaack
Week 4 featured the return of several fantasy studs: Rashard Lewis, Devin Harris, Troy Murphy, and Pau Gasol. (Thanks for playing, Ryan Andersen and Rafer Alston. Here are some nice parting gifts…)
As for Murphy and Gasol, their fantasy impact is a little more complicated. Murphy will definitely take away some of Roy Hibbert’s stats, but I think the young center will still be valuable contributing a near double-double with 2 bpg. Meanwhile, if you didn’t sell high on Andrew Bynum before Gasol’s return, please don’t panic and let someone buy low on him these next few (or more?) games as he readjusts to Gasol. 19 and 11 might be a little much to expect, but he’ll be much better than 11 and 8 (his first game with Pau back).
On the flip side, Week 4 also saw some key injuries, including Jameer Nelson and Andrew Bogut. If you’re looking for replacements, Jason Williams has had a couple decent games thus far, while Kurt Thomas/Hakim Warrick have each had a nice game (depending on the matchup) in Bogut’s absence. (There are some more exciting pickups further below.)
They’re “Ba-aaack”
Week 4 also featured the “return” of two stud centers: Elton Brand and Al Jefferson. With Marresse Speights out of the way due to injury, Brand absolutely erupted, averaging 20 and 10 with 2.7/3.7 spg/bpg this week, good for the #2 ranking by averages in Yahoo leagues. I’m not sure what to make of this unexpected outburst quite yet, as the 76ers lost two of those games and barely beat a new-look CHA team in the other game, but I’ll have my thoughts on whether Brand is a sell high or buy low guy shortly.
Schmuck Bait: Buy Low Sell High, Week 1
Posted by fantasy hoopster in Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Rankings, Fantasy Basketball Strategy, Schmuck Bait on November 3, 2009
Jason Kidd is a nice buy-low target. His wife has nothing to do w/ this article but she, uh, looks not so bad. (SI)
A week into the season is plenty of time for people to start panicking about their teams. It’s also a perfect time to make some sneaky trades. And so, the first installment of Buy Low Sell High. (I know, I know. I’ll try to come up with a better name once my brain isn’t fried.)
As a bonus, I’ll throw in some salesman-y schmuck bait you can use with each player.
BUY LOW
Al Jefferson
He missed a good chunk of the pre-season due to a sore Achilles, and his minutes were limited the first couple games. So, in a way, he’s still getting into basketball shape. I know, because he’s sinking one of my teams right now. But if the guy who owns Big Al in your league isn’t as patient, feel free to lob him an offer.
The schmuck bait: He’s one wobbly knee from imploding your entire season. (This is actually true, but I like him to stay relatively healthy.)
Jason Kidd
Kidd hasn’t been a scorer in years, but he’s only made four shots in three games so far! I’m not even expecting double-digit scoring from him, but if he can hit 1.X threes per game, his numbers will be pretty close to last year, when he was a top 10 player by totals. And according to some of my readers, his owners are already getting antsy with his lack of 3’s/scoring, even though all the other numbers are there.
The schmuck bait: He’s old (i.e., fantasy finished).
Jose Calderon
A lot of people, including me, expected big things from Calderon this year after he took the summer off to improve his conditioning. Looks like he should’ve spent more time getting acquainted with Hedo Turkoglu. Here’s a telling stat: Calderon has already missed 4 FTs this year — more than all of last year. To me, that would hint that this initial slow start is more mental than anything else. It might take him a while to get used to Hedo, in which case you have time to decide whether he’s worth the “gamble”, but I’d act sooner than later.
The schmuck bait: He’s a Spaniard. Just kidding. He’s still unproven over an entire year as a go-to PG.
11/o6/09 UPDATE: Please see my Tough Questions post about Calderon to see exactly what I mean by “gamble”.
Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Eye-Opening Lines from the Season’s First Full Night of Action
Posted by fantasy hoopster in Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Rankings, Fantasy Basketball Strategy on October 29, 2009
Although neither of them can jump anymore, one of these O'Neals might not be fantasy-finished just quite yet... (NBAE)
Now that we’re done with those meaningless and (potentially) misleading eye-opening lines from the pre-season, how about some eye-opening lines from games that actually count. In addition to looking at some lines from guys that are probably already rostered, I’ll look at (perhaps more importantly) lines from guys you want to keep an eye on.
First, a word of caution: While it can make or break your season if you land one of these game-changing free agents that went undrafted, something that can also make or break your season is dropping one of your sleepers before he pans out. So, if you’re carrying dead weight, go ahead and jump on some of these guys. Otherwise, just keep an eye on them and be ready to pounce (like, say, during the second quarter of their third consecutive solid game — sometimes you just can’t wait until that night).
Without further ado, some eye-opening lines from the season’s first full night of action (and a few from the first night too):
STARS
Gilbert Arenas
Sure, LeBron put up back-to-back monster lines, but that wasn’t the most eye-opening performance to me. Even though I don’t own him in any leagues, it was still great to see Gilbert Arenas pour in 29 points with 9 assists in his season debut. It’s certainly not a guarantee of anything, but still, nice to see.
Danny Granger
While Kevin Durant posted a line worthy of a fantasy first-rounder with 25 and 11, those who stuck with their guns and drafted Danny Granger must quietly be thrilled with his 31 points on 5 threes. Again, it’s still early, but you geniuses may as well pat yourselves on the back (especially before Granger hurts himself).
BIGS
Nobody thrived more on opening night (and a half) than the League’s big men. Some cases in point:
Brook Lopez poured in 27 and 15 with 5 blocks, and against Al Jefferson nonetheless.
Injury Timeout: Kevin Love
Posted by fantasy hoopster in 20-Second Timeout, Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Draft, Fantasy Basketball Draft Strategy, Fantasy Basketball Injuries, Fantasy Basketball Rankings, Injury Timeout on October 18, 2009
Uh, no, that's not Kevin Love. But he might be the biggest news out of Minnesota this weekend... (Gary Dineen/Getty Images)
Add another fantasy-impacting injury to the list. This time, Kevin Love broke his (non-shooting) hand in Friday night’s game against Chicago. Initial estimates have Love out 6-8 weeks, which would put his return sometime in December. He’s definitely still worth drafting, especially in leagues with an IR spot, but I would bump him down around 15-20 spots in roto leagues and around 8-10 spots in H2H leagues. So as of now, I’d still prefer Love to, say, Tyson Chandler, but I think Greg Oden leapfrogs him in most formats. A quick look at the fantasy impact:
- There are some whispers that the Timberwolves might shift Ryan Gomes over to PF. However, I highly doubt this considering the starting tandem of Jefferson and Love was already slightly undersized to start with (at least vertically), and Gomes is only listed at 6′7″. Still, I expect to see a small bump in Gomes’ REB (and perhaps even PTS) as he won’t have to “contend” with Love for boards. I would bump Gomes up a couple slots in roto leagues, but it’s probably inconsequential in H2H. (One might also argue that Gomes isn’t even starting at SF now. But having Damien Wilkins start ahead of him seems more like a motivational ploy. At least right now.)
- If you drafted Oleksiy Pecherov before this injury occurred, either your name is Oleksiy or you are in a 32-team league. Although Kurt Rambis started Brian Cardinal at PF in the first pre-season game sans Love, Pecherov might be the biggest beneficiary of Love’s misfortune. (He chipped in 9 REB in 19 min.) My guess is the Wolves slide Jefferson to PF and slot Pecherov in at C. He actually had a decent game on Friday, chipping in 16 and 5 with a couple 3’s. However, I probably wouldn’t draft him except in deeper leagues, although he’ll probably be worth spot starts in H2H leagues during November.
- Perhaps the most important question of all: How will this, if at all, affect Al Jefferson? Well, if Big Al weren’t coming back from a major injury, I would like his REB to see a nice bump. However, the (in my opinion) more concerning news coming out of Minnesota this weekend was about Jefferson’s sore Achilles. Remember, he’s coming off a torn ACL, not Achilles, but it’s still just as concerning because it means he’s probably overcompensating for some parts of his body by putting stress on other parts. And speaking of overcompensating, hopefully the absence of Love doesn’t put too much excess pounding on Jefferson as a whole, as I could see tag team-box outs in the near future. So, while Jefferson might add some REB, it will be limited by his playing time. And the bigger worry is that Love’s absence might even have a small effect on Big Al’s long-term health for the season. I’ll probably (maybe) still draft him ahead of Chris Bosh for the BLK, but it’s a lot closer now. [10/20 UPDATE: Okay, now I'm definitely taking Bosh ahead of Al...]
Loading ...Whatever the case, it’ll be another 6-8 weeks before we see these types of shots:
Fantasy Basketball Draft Rankings: 91-100
Posted by fantasy hoopster in Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Draft, Fantasy Basketball Rankings on September 30, 2009
Fantasy basketball draft rankings: 91-100
These rankings are based on a standard 9-category format, with a slight leaning towards H2H leagues, although differing strategies for roto leagues are noted when applicable.
| Player | Team | POS | Analysis | |
| 91 | Kevin Love | MIN | PF, C | As the starting PF for the Wolves, Love should flirt with double-doubles nightly. How will a healthy Big Al affect his stats? Love’s FG% was erratic month-to-month last year, but it should stabilize this year with Jefferson attracting so much attention (as well as due to Love’s own sophomore progression). The defensive numbers are more of a crapshoot, but the way this kid hustles, he should contribute some in both STL/BLK. |
| 92 | Mario Chalmers | MIA | PG | With Wade handling the ball so much, I don’t think Chalmers can improve wildly on his rookie season. But I am looking forward to seeing slight upticks in PTS, AST, 3PM, and STL (and he was already at 2 spg last year). |
| 93 | Mike Bibby | ATL | PG | While Bibby is bound to lose some minutes and AST to Crawford this year, I still like him to pop a couple 3’s per game. And like his two other backcourt mates, I like a slight increase in his efficiency as he learns to mesh with his fellow playmakers. |
| 94 | Francisco Garcia | SAC | SG, SF | While I don’t like how Nocioni ate into his playing time at the end of last season, it’s difficult to find a consistent 1/1/1 guy this late in the draft. None of his individual numbers stand out, but with his versatility he should finish in the top-80 by averages. |
| 95 | T.J. Ford | IND | PG | As the lone true distributor on last season’s squad, I’m still surprised Ford only averaged 5.3 apg. But with Danny Granger and Brandon Rush’s continued improvement (along with Jarrett Jack’s departure), I like Ford to eclipse at least 6 apg. His month-to-month splits last year suggest he was already headed that direction, until a late-season shake-up to the starting lineup left him on the bench. |
| 96 | Mike Conley | MEM | PG | Conley’s sophomore bump was delayed, but it happened in the nick of time to save some fantasy teams (just not the teams that drafted him). So of course the logical move was for MEM to bring in Allen Iverson. It took Conley half a season to get accustomed to playing alongside O.J. Mayo. I wouldn’t be surprised if it takes Conley a while to adjust to AI as well, but he should produce eventually. I might let someone else draft him and try to trade for him early in the season. |
| 97 | Allen Iverson | MEM | PG, SG | AI is difficult to project because who knows where he will end the season? If he stays in MEM, this might actually be too early to draft him. But based on his skill level (and name recognition, for potential fantasy trades), this seems about right. After all, he still averaged 5 apg and 1.5 spg in a less-than-ideal situation last year. |
| 98 | Nate Robinson | NY | PG, SG | Like Francisco Garcia, Robinson is one of those guys who was a past sleeper, but didn’t pan out quite as much as people hoped. As a result, he could slip into the later rounds of the draft, where he becomes a nice value pick. |
| 99 | Blake Griffin | LAC | PF | Last year was the year of the rookie, and as a result, I expect people to overvalue rookies (which is usually the case anyway) this year. Griffin is certainly capable of 15+ ppg while contributing some everywhere else, but I’ll let other people overpay for him. |
| 100 | Paul Millsap | UTA | PF, C | If Boozer is dealt, you’ll be getting top 50 value in the eighth or ninth round of your draft. Even if Boozer isn’t dealt, Millsap should provide usable if unspectacular numbers. (Update: Millsap started a recent preseason game at SF for the Jazz. It looks like Jerry Sloan will figure out a way to get him on the court, one way or the other.) |
Fantasy Basketball Draft Rankings: 11-20
Posted by fantasy hoopster in Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Draft, Fantasy Basketball Rankings on September 30, 2009
Fantasy basketball draft rankings: 11-20
These rankings are based on a standard 9-category format, with a slight leaning towards H2H leagues, although differing strategies for roto leagues are noted when applicable.
| Player | Team | POS | Analysis | |
| 11 | Dwight Howard | ORL | C | It’s the same old story with Howard. Is it worth sacrificing FT% to dominate in FG%, REB, and BLK? Yes, in H2H leagues if you decide to punt FT%. In roto leagues you would need to draft the likes of a Kevin Martin or Chancey Billups later to have a shot in FT%. Personally I like Big Al and Amare better. Things get a little fuzzier with Bosh and Pau – it just depends on your personal strategy. |
| 12 | Chris Bosh | TOR | PF, C | Like Al Jefferson, Bosh will give you 20+ and 10 with nearly a steal per game. Given his track record, he’s probably a slightly safer bet as well. The only downside is his mediocre 1.0 bpg. But if you’re confident you can account for that elsewhere, Bosh should be in store for a nice bump in efficiency this year, with a healthy Calderon and newly-acquired Turkoglu setting him up. |
| 13 | Pau Gasol | LAK | PF, C | Some people are taking Pau in the first round, but I’d wait until early second. Just take a look at Pau’s splits with (18 and 9) and without (21 and 10) Bynum last season. Of course Pau’s real value is in his FG%, but I’m betting on Bynum to play 60+ games this year, which means Pau’s final numbers should be closer to the former. |
| 14 | Brandon Roy | POR | SG | He’s officially a fantasy stud, but the biggest question is how Andre Miller will affect him. A steady Steve Blake already ate into Roy’s assist numbers last year, so you’d have to think those will take another slight hit. However, the %s and scoring might creep up with a more experienced floor general at the helm. |
| 15 | Andre Iguodala | PHI | SG, SF | With shoot-first Louis Williams replacing pass-first Andre Miller at PG, AI will probably control the ball more and pad his AST. Unfortunately, Miller’s departure might also negatively affect AI’s FG% and TO. (And AI’s owners already have to deal with his subpar FT%.) With a healthy Brand back in the lineup, AI’s scoring might not go up as much as expected, but it’s hard to argue against the AST value from a forward. |
| 16 | Chauncey Billips | DEN | PG | Billups is a stud PG who, like Nash, has seemingly defied Father Time. Although Nash has higher FG% and AST, I give Billups a slight edge b/c of his superior 3PM and STL. Many think having a year in Denver under his belt will lead to a slight boost in Billups’ numbers, although I think it will be negligible considering his age. In H2H leagues, I give a clear nod to Billups given Denver’s great schedule. |
| 17 | Steve Nash | PHO | PG | This guy never ceases to amaze me. After a slow start last year, Nash was back to around 10 apg the rest of the year when PHO returned to its shoot-early offense. With Shaq out of town, expect more of the same. The biggest question mark: Will his 3PM return to the 2+ range? If so he will be a steal here. If not, he’s still a solid building block. |
| 18 | Joe Johnson | ATL | PG, SG | ATL is still Joe Johnson’s team. The addition of Jamal Crawford will more likely negatively impact Bibby. I was surprised Johnson’s FG% wasn’t closer to the mid-40s last season playing off a capable set-up man in Bibby. Now that he’ll be playing off two capable set-up men nearly every second he’s on the court, I expect his FG% to get back to his early ATL years. |
| 19 | Tim Duncan | SA | PF, C | While still a solid fantasy C, Duncan’s minutes have declined in 7 of the last 8 seasons. His numbers have followed suit. Dissecting the stats another way, his minutes also declined month-to-month last year, to the point where he was essentially a glorified David Lee during the fantasy playoffs. While I wouldn’t mind owning him, I’d rather take a quality wing or guard at this point in the draft and target an up-and-coming C later. (See: Lopez, Biedrins, Horford.) |
| 20 | Carmelo Anthony | DEN | SF | Melo has come a long way in fantasy hoops. Once a notorious “brand name” player who only provided scoring, Melo has steadily raised his 3PM (not to mention 3P%) the last four years. He’s gotten his REB to a respectable level for a SF, and his AST and STL are above average for his position. He started last year in a horrible shooting slump en route to his worst FG% since his sophomore year, but now that he’s found his groove with Chauncey, I expect him to shoot 47-49% next year. |
Rotoworld- T-Mac, Sergio both starting for Knicks - Tracy McGrady (G/F) New York Knicks
- Gerald Wallace dings up neck - Gerald Wallace (F) Charlotte Bobcats
- Ray Allen has pep talk with Rondo - Ray Allen (G) Boston Celtics
- Monta leaning toward playing Thursday - Monta Ellis (G) Golden State Warriors
- Darko starts for Wolves, Love still on bench - Darko Milicic (F/C) Minnesota Timberwolves
- Johan Petro will start again for Nuggets - Johan Petro (F/C) Denver Nuggets
- Julian Wright to start for Hornets - Julian Wright (G/F) New Orleans Hornets
- Wallace, Stuckey out again for Pistons - Ben Wallace (F/C) Detroit Pistons
- Nazr Mohammed out again Wednesday - Nazr Mohammed (C) Charlotte Bobcats
- Clips' Gordon has MRI, doubtful for Wednesday - Eric Gordon (G) Los Angeles Clippers
- Adrian Wojnarowski
- WojYahooNBA: Column: Donald Sterling has big plans for the Clippers now. Next, he should fire himself. http://tinyurl.com/yhbokyp
- WojYahooNBA: RT @jimrome: You know you're having a bad day if Lester Munson is on tv talking about you.
- WojYahooNBA: Gonzo took Times vaccine at Duane Reade RT @PeteThamelNYT: When asked his reaction toTimes story, Gonzo said, "I’m immune to those things."
- WojYahooNBA: Larry Brown had been pushing for Sixers job too, but hard to believe MJ will let him out of contract to leave for Philly or Clips.
- WojYahooNBA: Agent who talked to Dunleavy in past several days says he was planning for free agency, draft and no sense he was gonna get whacked.
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