Draft Rankings

The complete list, 1-150.  (Note: These rankings were published in early October.  They’re more a reference point for how grossly mistaken I was on some things while going Aztec prophesier on others.  If there’s enough interest, I’ll do a monthly-ish player ranking update, although let’s be honest those are a pain in the arse to do on a regular basis!)

These rankings are based on a standard 9-category format, with a slight leaning towards H2H leagues, although differing strategies for roto leagues are noted when applicable.

(Click on a player’s name for a more detailed analysis of them, as well as a more detailed analysis of the players ranked near him, for comparison’s sake.)


 Player Team POS Analysis
1 LeBron James CLE SF Two words: Contract year.  (As if that really matters.)
2 Chris Paul NO PG Statistically the best player in the league.  Should go #1 in roto leagues.
3 Dwyane Wade MIA SG He’s baaaack.  (If you’re worried about his injury risk, the next guy’s not a bad option.)
4 Kevin Durant OKC SG, SF KD has the kind of stuff to finish in the top-3 by averages at year’s end.
5 Kobe Bryant LAK SG He might not end the year in the top-5 by averages, but he plays through everything.
6 Danny Granger IND SG, SF Has gotten (considerably) better every year he’s been a pro.
7 Dirk Nowitzki DAL PF Mr. Consistent.  He was engaged to a con-woman last year and still delivered a top 5 finish (totals).
8 Amare Stoudemire PHO PF, C Becoming a cyclops last year means someone will get a late first round steal this year.
9 Al Jefferson MIN PF, C His rehab is progressing well, and he should be a 20/10/2 lock.
10 Deron Williams UTA PG Clearly the second best PG in the league.
11 Dwight Howard ORL C The ultimate “trade-off” guy.
12 Chris Bosh TOR PF, C If he could block more than 1 shot per game, he’d be a couple notches higher.
13 Pau Gasol LAK PF, C Although a healthy Bynum might hurt him a little, Pau’s real value is in his FG%.
14 Brandon Roy POR SG He’s officially a fantasy stud, with or without Miller.
15 Andre Iguodala PHI SG, SF I’m calling it now.  AI will have the year’s only quadruple-double.  (PTS, REB, AST, TO)
16 Chauncey Billips DEN PG Imagine what he can do now that he’s readapted to that Mile High air.
17 Steve Nash PHO PG 7 seconds or less means 10 assists or more for Nash in 09-10.
18 Joe Johnson ATL PG, SG He’ll be playing off Bibby or Crawford nearly all the time.  Can’t be a bad thing.
19 Tim Duncan SA PF, C While still a solid fantasy C, Duncan’s minutes have declined in 7 of the last 8 seasons.
20 Carmelo Anthony DEN SF 5 years ago, people paid for the hype.  Now, the fantasy stats have caught up.
21 Devin Harris NJ PG No VC = career year for DH.
22 Caron Butler WAS SG, SF If he plays 70+ games, he’s a great value here.
23 Kevin Garnett BOS PF He’s still the Big Ticket…right? You have to take him at 23…right?
24 Jason Kidd DAL PG He’s definitely lost a step, but the stats don’t lie.
25 Rashard Lewis ORL PF Just b/c he kills in 3’s doesn’t mean he’s just a 3-point specialist. (But his 10-game ban drops him 5-10 slots in roto leagues.)
26 Jose Calderon TOR PG More playmakers in TOR might equal less apg, but also less wear and tear.
27 Paul Pierce BOS SG, SF The C’s got deeper this offseason, which means The Truth could be taking longer breaks on the bench.
28 Josh Smith ATL PF After an off year, you can probably get him at a discount.
29 Gerald Wallace CHA SF Because it’s almost mandatory to draft Crash immediately before/after J-Smoove.
30 Antawn Jamison WAS PF One of those nice consistent building blocks.
31 David West NO PF Another guy you draft so you can take some chances later.
32 Kevin Martin SAC SG Shoots 3’s good.
33 Brook Lopez NJ PF, C Should be the first sophomore taken in fantasy drafts.
34 Troy Murphy IND PF, C Is Murphy a one-hit wonder?  Hey, if Tone Loc can follow up “Wild Thing” with “Funky Cold Medina”, anything is possible.
35 Elton Brand PHI PF, C Last year’s first round bust should be this year’s third round steal.
36 Carlos Boozer UTA PF, C He must hate Paul Millsap.
37 Rajon Rondo BOS PG Nearly averaged a triple-double in the playoffs last year.
38 Vince Carter ORL SG, SF A motivated VC could be a scary VC.
39 Gilbert Arenas WAS PG It comes down to this: Who is a sure bet you would not be embarrassed to draft even if Agent 0 explodes?
40 Baron Davis LAC PG You heard it here: Clippers in the playoffs = Baron will actually be playing in April.
41 Derrick Rose CHI PG 36 and 11.  D-Rose’s PTS and AST in his playoff debut.  (Also my totals over 8 games in my current rec league.)
42 Hedo Turkoglu TOR SG, SF Will still be called on to be a playmaker.
43 David Lee NY PF, C He will average exactly 10.8 rpg.  Or exactly zero 3’s per game.  One or the other.
44 LaMarcus Aldridge POR PF, C Oden’s sophomore bump should both hurt and help Aldridge.
45 Monta Ellis GS PG, SG A great building block for FG%.
46 Nene Hilario DEN PF, C I’m nut about this guy.  Yeah, you read that right.  One nut.
47 Marcus Camby LAC PF, C Like B-Diddy, for once I like Camby to play deep into April/the fantasy playoffs.
48 Jameer Nelson ORL PG Nelson was a Top 30 player on Yahoo when healthy last year.
49 Stephen Jackson GS SG, SF My favorite love/hate player.
50 O.J. Mayo MEM SG Why did MEM sign AI again?  Oh yeah, to f**k me over in my dynasty league.
51 Tony Parker SA PG Will probably post similar numbers to D-Rose.  But who wants used goods?
52 Andris Biedrins GS C It pays in fantasy to be the tallest guy on a high shot volume team.
53 Rudy Gay MEM SF Why did MEM sign AI again?  Oh yeah, to f**k me over in my other dynasty league.
54 Jason Richardson PHO SG, SF A near-return to his GS numbers is possible.
55 Andrew Bynum LAK C If Kobe hadn’t gone Tonya Harding on his knee last year, he’d be a second round pick.
56 Mo Williams CLE PG Prediction: He will record more 3PM than AST in a game 48 times this year.
57 Michael Redd MIL SG, SF MIL’s big move this offseason?  Signing Hakim Warrick.  Sucks to be Michael Redd.
58 Shawn Marion DAL SF, PF Going as early as the third round in several drafts.
59 Mehmet Okur UTA PF, C With Boozer and Millsap both healthy, Okur could see a slight dip in mpg.
60 Ron Artest LAK SG, SF Prediction: RonRon will have his own reality show by the All Star break.
61 Al Horford ATL PF, C Post-All Star break last year, Horford averaged 13 and 10.6.
62 Ben Gordon DET SG He’s expected to handle/distribute the ball a little more this year.
63 Ray Allen BOS SG Like Pierce, Allen’s mpg should slide a bit with Boston’s added depth.
64 Andrea Bargnani TOR PF, C Post- All Star break last year, Bargnani averaged 1.7+ 3PM/BLK.
65 Al Harrington NY PF, C With a newly-minted one-year contract in hand, should be motivated.
66 Manu Ginobili SA SG So efficient, it doesn’t matter his mpg will likely be monitored.
67 Emeka Okafor NO PF, C We had the same orthodontist growing up.  You’re welcome for that fun fact.
68 Charlie Villanueva DET PF Whenever he’s gotten playing time, he’s been a fantasy stud.  He’s slated to start at PF.
69 Zach Randolph MEM PF, C Believe it or not, they’re actually talking playoffs.  They, as in the Grizzlies.
70 Andre Miller POR PG If Steve Blake were to say, fall on something sharp, I’d bump up Miller 10 spots.
71 John Salmons CHI SG, SF All around production, but AST will likely take a small hit this year.
72 Russell Westbrook OKC PG The next Steve Francis (the good version)?
73 Tyrus Thomas CHI PF Fun to own, but expect the occasional dud.  (But hopefully not as much as Tyrus Thomas circa 2007.)
74 Rasheed Wallace BOS PF, C The last time Sheed was traded to a contender, it worked out pretty well.
75 J.R. Smith DEN SG, SF With Kleiza out of town, Smith will likely improve on his numbers again.
76 Jason Terry DAL SG Will have a similar role to last year.
77 Eric Gordon LAC SG Clippers suddenly have an abundance of scorers, but EG should still get his.
78 Anthony Randolph GS PF Will also be fun to own, but expect the occasional dud.  (But hopefully not as much as Tyrus Thomas circa 2007.)
79 Trevor Ariza HOU SF After being the fifth (maybe even sixth?) option in LA last year, Ariza is suddenly the go-to guy.
80 Spencer Hawes SAC PF, C As a full-time starter, he’s a nice addition to fantasy teams.
81 Leandro Barbosa PHO SG Phoenix is Phoenix again.  Barbosa should be back as well.
82 Josh Howard DAL SG, SF Marion should steal a few stats away, but should still be useful.
83 Lamar Odom LAK PF Prediction: Will average 2.7 appearances per episode on Artest’s reality show.
84 Boris Diaw CHA PF If Diaw was still C-eligible in Yahoo leagues he’d be ranked 15 picks earlier.
85 Wilson Chandler NY SG, SF Another 1/1/1 guy with position-flexibility.
86 Andrew Bogut MIL PF, C Bogut.  Australian for bust.  (Actually, look for a mini-bounce back year.  I just wanted to plug Fosters.)
87 Luis Scola HOU PF, C With Yao out for the year, Scola could be a poor man’s David Lee.
88 Ramon Sessions MIN PG One of my favorite sleepers this year.
89 Jeff Green OKC SF, PF Not flashy, but turning into a consistently solid fantasy guy.
90 Lou Williams PHI PG, SG I can never get too excited about shoot-first PG’s.
91 Kevin Love MIN PF, C The league’s newest double-double machine.
92 Mario Chalmers MIA PG Prediction: He will average 2.1 spg against Gilbert Arenas alone.
93 Mike Bibby ATL PG Even with Crawford around, will still pop a couple 3’s per game
94 Francisco Garcia SAC SG, SF Tough to find a 1/1/1 guy this late in the draft
95 T.J. Ford IND PG With Jarret Jack gone (and other reasons), I like his apg to rise.
96 Mike Conley MEM PG Why did MEM sign AI again?  Wait, I don’t have Conley in any of my leagues this year.
97 Allen Iverson MEM PG, SG Maybe the only person glad that MEM signed AI.
98 Nate Robinson NY PG, SG Not a bad value pick in later rounds.
99 Blake Griffin LAC PF One of the cardinal fantasy basketball draft sins: Overpaying for rookies.
100 Paul Millsap UTA PF, C If Boozer gets dealt, you’ll get top 50 value from the late rounds.
101 Chris Duhon NY PG Monitored playing time means goodbye 20+ AST games, but hello sleeper status.
102 Raymond Felton CHA PG With new one-year deal, should have plenty motivation.
103 Greg Oden POR C Don’t fall asleep on Oden this year.  Remember, he was essentially only a rookie last year.
104 Rodney Stuckey DET PG, SG Didn’t fare well in a crowded backcourt last year, so of course DET brings in another shoot-first G after AI leaves.
105 Rip Hamilton DET SG, SF See above.
106 Thaddeus Young PHI SF Really only excelled in Brand’s absence last year, but could still make a jump in his third year.
107 Luol Deng CHI SG, SF Could be a good value after back-to-back injury-filled seasons and all the hype around D-Rose and Salmons.
108 Tayshaun Prince DET SF Might be the most consistent Piston across the board, but also with the least upside.
109 Michael Beasley MIA SF Rehab after one year of being a pro can’t be good.  But if he gets his head on straight, could be a steal late in drafts this year.
110 Jamal Crawford ATL PG, SG Destined to play in crowded backcourts.
111 Joakim Noah CHI C Even as sub, the “other” Sideshow Bob should still get minutes and provide D.
112 Jermaine O’Neal MIA C Two words: Contract year.  (As if that will really help much.)
113 Ronnie Brewer UTA SG, SF A cheap source of steals, while slowly improving other stats too.
114 Marvin Williams ATL SF Injuries derailed what would’ve been a fourth consecutive season of improved stats last year.
115 Aaron Brooks HOU PG Love the energy but beware the FG% w/o Yao or T-Mac drawing defenders.
116 Tyson Chandler CHA C Not exactly a defensive stopper when it comes to fantasy…
117 Drew Gooden DAL PF, C Should have an opportunity to pad his REB stats in Dallas’ up-tempo (high shot volume) offense.
118 Shaquille O’Neal CLE C Starring on a reality TV show can’t be good for anyone’s career.
119 Jason Thompson SAC PF Improvement every month last season = sleeper this season.
120 Randy Foye WAS PG, SG No longer the go-to guy on his team, or even close, but should still hit some 3’s.
121 Richard Jefferson SA SF RJ also becomes a role player for the first time in his career.
122 Corey Maggette GS SF Somewhat useful, but I will never own him.  Ever.
123 Stephen Curry GS PG, SG Will hit some 3’s, but I bet there will be quality players available when he’s drafted.
124 Al Thornton LAC SF All those new bodies in Clipper Nation can’t be good for his stats.
125 Kendrick Perkins BOS C The Celtics’ primary enforcer should still see enough time to contribute in FG%, REB and BLK.
126 Yi Jianlian NJ PF With the Nets rebuilding, might get enough playing time to approach 1/1/1 territory.
127 Courtney Lee NJ SG Did I mention the Nets were rebuilding?
128 Samuel Dalembert PHI C Eddie Jordan doesn’t exactly have the best track record with giving C’s consistent min.
129 Chris Kaman LAC C If you own Kaman, pray he gets traded.  But will still be serviceable as a backup.
130 Andrei Kirilenko UTA SF Remember when AK-47 used to go in the second round?…
131 Kenyon Martin DEN PF Personally, I like to avoid injury-riddled veterans this late in the draft.
132 Peja Stojakovic NO SF See “injury-riddled veterans” comment.
133 Brandon Rush IND SG, SF When he started at SG last year, Rush averaged 17 and 5 with decent stats elsewhere. He’s starting at SG this year.
134 Antonio McDyess SA PF, C As the starting C in SA, should put up usable stats starting opposite Timmy.
135 Brad Miller CHI C 3+ apg are his primary source of value from the C position.
136 Chris Wilcox DET PF, C Should be a decent source of FG% and REB this late.
137 Mike Miller WAS SG, SF By the end of the year, Miller could be a 6-man candidate.
138 Hakim Warrick MIL PF Doesn’t have huge upside, but can score and rebound some.
139 Shane Battier HOU SF Not bad if your sexier sleepers are already taken.
140 Larry Hughes NY SG Still likely the starting SG in a D’Antoni offense.
141 Delonte West CLE SG Fantasy viable last year.  Certifiable this year.
142 Mickael Pietrus ORL SG, SF He was a popular sleeper last year, but disappointed for the most part.  Take two, anyone?
143 Tracy McGrady HOU SG, SF This is more just a reminder that T-Mac exists.
144 Mike Dunleavy IND SG, SF Ditto.
145 Grant Hill PHO SG, SF A return to the shoot-early offense in PHO warrants a look at the versatile veteran.
146 Ryan Gomes MIN SF With Miller and Foye out of the picture, someone has to score for the T-Wolves…
147 Chris Andersen DEN PF, C Will definitely lead the league in tattoos.
148 D.J. Augustin CHA PG, SG Should provide 3PM value this late in the draft.
149 Tyreke Evans SAC PG Don’t love rookie PG’s, but should get at least 4 apg just being in the same building as Kevin Martin.
150 DeMar DeRozan TOR SG, SF Deep sleeper could generate defensive stats a la Jamario Moon circa 2007.

  1. #1 by Taiwandude on October 8, 2009 - 4:06 am

    hey, im back lol
    anyways, interesting how you rank D 12 out of the top 10
    in H2H couldnt you just “punt” his FT%, and build off his blocks, points, steals and boards? in H2H it would seem he would be ranked higher.
    Also im a bit interested in how high you have Antwan and Caron Butler rated considering Arenas is back, do you see a bad year for Arenas? or are Butler and Antwan just that good?
    thanks

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  2. #2 by Taiwandude on October 8, 2009 - 4:07 am

    also for us deep leaguers, i would be very interested in seeing a top 200, maybe even 250?
    good site you got going, i find it very helpful

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  3. #3 by fantasy hoopster on October 8, 2009 - 1:35 pm

    Hey, thanks for checking out the site. Glad it helped some. And great points…

    For D-12, he’s definitely a top-5 viable pick in H2H leagues. I’ve seen people win championships with him, but I think it’s also a bit of a risk anchoring your team around him. The reason is, you basically punt FT% each week. So, you have to win 5 out of 8 categories in a standard 9-cat league. You’ll usually have a great chance in FG%, REB, and BLK. That means you have to win 2 out of the remaining 5: 3PM, PTS, AST, STL, TO. Seems easy, but a smart opposing team would just run small-ball against you. Of course, there would be counter-moves, but you get the point. (Actually, this might warrant an article…)

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  4. #4 by fantasy hoopster on October 8, 2009 - 1:44 pm

    As for Butler and Jamison, I think they’re both that good. If you look at Arenas’ last three healthy seasons, it’s pretty interesting. Jamison actually took and made more 3’s when Arenas was healthy, likely b/c Agent 0 freed him up more. His PTS might decline a little this year, but you’re paying for consistent near-double-doubles and 3’s from the PF spot with him. For Butler, he was pretty good those years as well, and more importantly he improved each of those years. I think his PTS and (more importantly) AST will dip w/ Arenas back. However, Butler added a 3-pt shot the last two years and I see no reason why that won’t continue. Butler’s biggest question mark is actually his health, but w/ the Wizards back in playoff contention, that should mean more motivation for Butler to stay healthy. Whether that happens is another issue…

    Also, I’ll be working on the 151-200 list…

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  5. #5 by Taiwandude on October 8, 2009 - 8:58 pm

    thanks, yeah those answers make a lotta o sense, I asked about Arenas cuz I really dont think hes gonna be that great, but a lot of people think Antwan and Butler’s stock will go wayyyyyyyy down cuz of him
    thanks a bunch

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