Archive for category Fantasy Basketball Rankings

Offseason Upgrades: Darren Collison and Roy Hibbert

The Hornets, Rockets, Nets, and Pacers just pulled off a four-team deal sending Trevor Ariza to New Orleans, Courtney Lee to Houston, Troy Murphy to New Jersey, and last but certainly not least Darren Collison to Indiana.  In other words, you best update your fantasy draft rankings!  (Mine are coming soon, by the way.)

Collison gets an instant upgrade, especially with the fact that the Pacers are reportedly trying to buy out T.J. Ford’s contract.  Of course, with promising second-year point guard A.J. Price still in the picture, along with free agent Earl Watson potentially sticking around, there are no guarantees in fantasy basketball.  (See: Ramon Sessions.) But I’m pretty excited about this move for Collison.

Don’t expect Lee and Murphy to see their fantasy values change too much (I could see Lee’s touches going down, as well as Murphy’s rebounds now that he’ll be playing alongside a more established center in Brook Lopez).  And while Ariza will likely benefit — especially from an efficiency perspective — from playing alongside Chris Paul, in my opinion the second biggest winner in this deal is Roy Hibbert.  In games that Murphy missed last year, Hibbert put up 3rd/4th round-type stats.  Does that mean you should draft him there?  I’ll let you know how he stacks up when I finish my draft rankings, but there’s a decent chance he could be this year’s Brook Lopez.

Lastly — from a non-fantasy basketball perspective — I understand this trade for every team…except New Orleans.  Houston unloaded some salary without (in my opinion) losing too much talent.  (Yes, I like Courtney Lee.  And Ariza is at best a third or fourth option on a championship team.)  Indiana finally snatched the point guard it was looking for, while giving Hibbert (not to mention Tyler Hansbrough) a chance to really shine.  New Jersey took another step towards getting more competitive.  (By the way, I haven’t mentioned Anthony Morrow yet this summer, but in case you missed it he’s now a Net.)

But New Orleans?  They trade away their Chris Paul Insurance Policy for an overpaid role player.  I believe the Hornets brass had good intentions (“See, Chris?  We’re willing to spend money to build a contender!”), but this move could ultimately haunt them for years to come, especially when CP3 teams up with D12…  Or Melo and Amare…

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Trade Fallout: So many trades, so few roster spots

Wow, that was a busy trade season.  I haven’t seen that many players swapped since baseball cards were still cool to collect.  But since, realistically, most of us only had one or two roster spots to tinker with, how do we make sense of all the trade winners and losers?  Well, here’s my preliminary ranking (by tiers) of guys who are available in 50+% of Yahoo leagues (at least, before the trading deadline):

MUST-OWNS

Andray Blatche

First game post-Jamison and Haywood said it all, even if it came against the undersized T-Wolves.

Omri Casspi

Put up top 50 numbers when Martin was out earlier this year, and is a clear building block of the franchise.

Tyrus Thomas

With ample playing time, expect some wild stl/blk stat lines in the future.

JaVale McGee (at least in deeper leagues)

Like Blatche, he had an eye-opening effort against the T-Wolves,  Before that, he’s been very promising in stretches, albeit inconsistent.  He’s in the top tier because of his upside and the fact that his FT% isn’t nearly as bad as another C I’ll mention below.

NICE-TO-OWNS

Taj Gibson

Should see a nice boost while Joakim Noah is out.  Otherwise, at least he should enjoy a nice boost in confidence with Thomas gone.

Sergio Rodriguez

This guy might belong in the top tier if he can take Chris Duhon’s starting job, as has been rumored.  He’s probably a must-own in deeper leagues based purely on speculation.

Tracy McGrady

It’s kind of sad I would rather own Sergio Rodriguez right now, but T-Mac probably has more upside than anyone on this list.  He’s the true wild card of this group.

Josh Howard

Okay, he’s probably already taken in your league.  But if not, I’d rank him right below T-Mac.

Rasual Butler

Al Thornton’s exit and Travis Outlaw’s uncertain return mean big minutes for Butler.

DeAndre Jordan

Mixed bag in first two games post-Marcus Camby.  His upside is equal to McGee’s, but in his career as a starter he’s shooting a putrid 36% on a substantial 4.4 FT attempts per game.  His inconsistency might not be worth that negative pressure.

Craig Smith

Doesn’t do much besides score and score efficiently.  Those looking to make a last minute charge up the FG% ranks in roto leagues should consider him.

Francisco Garcia

He was a stud last year after the Kings traded away John Salmons.  The only problem this year — Tyreke Evans, Donte Greene, and Omri Casspi are all emerging and playing well.  And who knows what Larry Hughes’ role will be.

Donte Greene

See: Garcia, Francisco.

KEEP AN EYE ON

Nate Robinson

I dropped Nate for JaVale McGee in what was a needs-based move in one league, but BOS might actually be a good situation for Nate.  You know they want to rest Ray Allen for the playoffs, so it’s possible Nate could get 25-30 mpg as an instant offense sixth man.  Or, he could get the same minutes Eddie House was getting.  Who knows?  So keep an eye on him.

Nick Young

WAS is playing for the future, and Young would qualify as such.  If you need 3′s, they might start falling soon…

Rudy Fernandez and Jerryd Bayless

Even with Steve Blake gone, these guys kind of cancel each other out.  If Brandon Roy continues to be hampered by his hammy, both would enjoy instant upgrades.

Jared Jeffries and Hilton Armstrong

Jeffries’ skills are a perfect match for Houston’s style of play.  However, he probably won’t get close to the minutes he was getting in NY.  We’ll have to wait and see what that averages out to.  And speaking of playing time, Armstrong will be battling Jeffries for the minutes that Carl Landry vacated in Houston.  He hasn’t done much this year, but has been useful for stretches in the past.

Hakim Warrick

He doesn’t do much besides score, but CHI chose him over more defensive big men like Kurt Thomas and Francisco Elson for a reason.  With Salmons gone, Warrick could be leaned on for some (unorthodox) post scoring.

Beno Udrih

Udrih was useful the first time Martin was missing games, but the return of Francisco Garcia complicates that backcourt enough for me to be cautiously optimistic about Udrih the rest of the way.

Al Thornton

A change of scenery might do him good, but he’s still playing behind Mike Miller and Howard.

IT’S NOT YOU, IT’S ME…

You might not want to cut some of these guys right away, but if you have to in order to snatch one of the “Must-Owns” I’d probably make the move.

Channing Frye

I’m sticking Frye on this list because he was probably hurt the most by the Suns’ inability to trade Amare Stoudemire.  He could still very possibly get hot for multiple games at a time, but Robin Lopez is entrenched as the starter now, killing Frye’s consistency.  (I’d hang onto him in deeper leagues though.)

J.J. Hickson and Anderson Varejao

Again, maybe wait at least a couple days before dropping these guys, but that CLE frontcourt is awfully crowded now. But do what you gotta do and don’t look back.

Drew Gooden

Looks like he’s staying in Clipperland, where he might actually be somewhat useful, but his upside is limited.

Ronnie Brewer and Charlie Bell

Brewer and Bell are headed to the MEM and MIL benches, and there are definitely more attractive fish in the sea.

Zydrunas Ilgauskas

If his contract is bought out, he’s worthless for 4 weeks.  If he rejoins CLE or goes to DAL, it’s not much better.

Erick Dampier

I was down on him from the start.  A broken finger sealed his fate.

Did I miss anyone?  Of course I did.  Feel free to let me know below…

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Trade Fallout: McGrady, Thomas, Robinson, Salmons, Boozer(?)

Thanks to the recession and the possibility of an NBA lockout next season, trading is fast and furious this season.  I’ll try to rank the biggest gainers by the end of today, as you’ll need to be quick to grab some of these names off FA lists.  So far, among potentially available pickups, Andray Blatche appears to be the biggest winner, with JaVale McGee, DeAndre Jordan, Craig Smith, Donte Greene, and Francisco Garcia trailing.  But more on that later.

You should be checking Rotowire, Rotoworld, and Adrian Wojnarowski’s Twitter feed (all in the right-hand column) up until the trade deadline of 3 pm EST and even a couple hours after, as some trades come in late.  Here’s some of the latest chatter I haven’t covered yet:

Tracy McGrady to NY (after all)

McGrady is worth a flyer in most leagues.  With Larry Hughes headed to SAC, Donte Greene and Francisco Garcia’s prospects look slightly dimmer, and I’d probably rather gamble on McGrady.

Meanwhile, for those of you looking for assists, keep an eye on Chris Duhon’s new backup, Sergio Rodriguez.  They could very well swap roles by the end of the season.

John Salmons to MIL

Salmons will likely start at SG and gets an immediate upgrade.  Charlie Bell loses his starting job, while Carlos Delfino might lose some touches.

Tyrus Thomas to CHA

Thomas gets a boost in CHA as his playing time will likely increase.  Boris Diaw might take a slight hit, while Gerald Wallace’s rebounding numbers might also dip some.

Nate Robinson to BOS

Initially I didn’t like this move for Nate, but check tonight’s game to see what his his role will (roughly) be.

Carlos Boozer to MIA?

Apparently, UTA and MIA are in last minute trade talks.  As a Paul Millsap owner, I’m hoping this happens.  As a D-Wade fan, I’m also hoping this happens.

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Schmuck Bait: Amare Stoudemire (buy low!)

I'd be wearing shades if I just got pummeled by Andrew Bynum and friends too. (Getty Images)

I'd be wearing shades if I just got pummeled by Andrew Bynum and friends too. (Getty Images)

There were only two games on Thursday night, with one line that really jumped out at me…

Amare Stoudemire

With 8 pts and 5 reb on 2-15 shooting, Stoudemire easily had his worst game of the season on Thursday, the third of three very mediocre games in a row (although two of them were blowouts where he didn’t top 26 min).  I actually had a chance to see the game at Staples last night (thanks for the tix, Frank), and honestly, it was one of those games that didn’t look as bad (for Amare) in person as it did on paper.  (Although the missed dunk was slightly embarrassing.)

That being said, I think he is at his absolute lowest BUY LOW point of the season right now, for a few reasons:

The Tough Schedule

As Bright Side of the Sun pointed out, the Suns were finishing a back-to-back, which also happened to be the 4th game in 5 nights, which also happened to be the 7th game in 10 nights (with 6 of those 7 games on the road).  And even though an eye injury doesn’t seem as serious as, say, a knee injury, Amare still had to sit out several months this year.  So you can imagine how winded he was trying to guard Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom last night (which, by the way, just might be the best combo of size, speed, and strength to contain someone like Stoudemire).

The Robin Lopez factor?

Stoudemire is only averaging a mediocre 7.9 rpg and sub-1 bpg, not to mention an uncharacteristic 71% on FT.  For the latter, he’s shot over 80% over the last four years, so I’m not worried about that.  As for REB, Stoudemire has never been an elite rebounder, so I wouldn’t be surprised if that hovers between 8-9 per game.

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20-Second Timeout: Stephen Jackson, Anthony Randolph, and Earl Smith III

When your teammates would rather have Corey Maggette than you, that's a bad sign.  (AP)

When your teammates would rather have Corey Maggette than you, that's a bad sign. (AP)

For my more regular readers… don’t panic.  Stephen Jackson isn’t injured.  I’m changing the name of my injury updates/fallouts to what they should have been called in the first place, Injury Timeouts.  (Duh.)  20-Second Timeouts will be quick in-depth analyses from interesting news items around the Association.

Stephen Jackson

Even though he won Golden State of Mind’s “Warrior Wonder” award for his 10 point, 15 assist double-double last night (yes, it was against MIN but it still counts!), Yahoo Sports is reporting that the Warriors are anxious to part ways with S-Jax and have as many as ten suitors.  Nothing’s certain, but at this point I’d be more surprised if he ends the year as a Warrior than if he doesn’t.

What would it mean for his fantasy value?

If you drafted Jackson, like I did in one league (one of those “he’s too talented to be drafted this late” situations), you had to expect this after Jackson’s off-season griping.  His future fantasy value depends on where he’s traded, but his value will likely decline based on assists alone.  He wants to be traded to a contender, and there are few contenders I can think of who will let Jackson handle the ball as much as he did in The City.  However, I expect his other numbers to stay relatively level, but it all depends.  If you’re at all worried about his value nosediving, try to trade him now.  I’m listening to offers but not panicking.

What would it mean for the other Warriors’ value?

Again, this depends on where Jackson is headed to, or rather, what pieces are coming back to Golden State.  The Warriors are reportedly coveting a big man, so guys like Kelenna Azubuike and Anthony Morrow should be picked up and stashed.  They’re already valuable in deeper leagues, and if Jackson gets traded, they’ll be among this year’s waiver wire steals.  Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry should also see some bumps in production, particularly assists, as they would need to handle the ball more with Jackson gone.

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Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Eye-Opening Lines from Week 2

The only thing that can stop Kaman so far is Kaman himself.  Or Reggie Evans' right hand.  (AP)

The only thing that can stop Kaman so far is Kaman himself. Or Reggie Evans' right hand. (AP)

Week 2 had plenty of surprises, including a fantasy stud who keeps getting better, some old-timers rising from the dead, some sleepers living up to the hype, and plenty of potential free agents who might be able to help your squad.

THE RICH GET RICHER

Chris Paul

First of all, I just want to point out one of the sickest stats of this young season.  As if there was any doubt who the (statistically) best fantasy player in the league is, Paul has hit a ridiculous 72% of his threes this year.  (He’s only hitting 64% of his overall shots though.  Slacker.)

ZOMBIELAND

Meanwhile, a handful of fantasy old-timers (some older than others) have seemingly risen from the dead to put up top-notch fantasy stats.

Andrei Kirilenko

In 4 November games, AK-47 approached his pre-Boozer/Deron AK-47 numbers with 1.8 spg/bpg to go along with 13 ppg and solid %’s, good for a top 25 Yahoo ranking by averages.

Chris Kaman

Kaman’s monster season continued in week 2.  His game log speaks for itself.  Sell high, anyone?

Andrew Bogut

It’s been a couple years since Bogut was a top-tier fantasy C, but last week he sure played like one, averaging 18 and 10 with 1/2 spg/bpg.  With Michael Redd coming back in the next week or so, I’m not sure Bogut will continue to get 14 shots per game, but he’s clearly found his offensive rhythm again.

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Tough Questions: Jose Calderon

Notice the delirious Raptors fans behind Calderon?  Yeah, this photo wasn't taken any time recently.  (Ron Turenne/NBAE/Getty)

Notice the delirious Raptors fans behind Calderon? Yeah, this photo wasn't taken any time recently. (Ron Turenne/NBAE/Getty)

It’s still early in the fantasy season, but it’s never too early to panic about your early-round or sleeper draft picks.  (It doesn’t help when you’re watching them put up zeroes on Stat Tracker or Game Cast.)  One guy I’ve gotten plenty of questions about early is Jose Calderon.

Jose Calderon

I (and many others) were high on Calderon after he spent the off-season getting healthy for the upcoming year.  With the additions of Hedo Turkoglu and Jarrett Jack, I didn’t think Calderon’s numbers would necessarily improve — rather, I thought they would take enough pressure/stress off him so that he could last a full 82 games.  Apparently, he should’ve spent more time this off-season getting accustomed to his new teammates.

Tim Chisholm of The Sports Network (or TSN, essentially the ESPN of Canada) wrote a must-read article for those who own Calderon or who are thinking about trading for Calderon.  I still think he’s a buy-low candidate (after all, he had only 1 assist in his last game, compared to 6 for Turk and Jack each), but only for those of you who are willing/able to take on risk.  (I’ll explain below.)

If Calderon were playing in the same system/style as last year and only had to adjust to Turkoglu and Jack, I’d be a lot higher on his prospects.  However, Chisholm points out there may be more at work here:

“To watch Calderon play, though, suggests that he’s in more than just a slump. A slump suggests that he’s a little lethargic or that his shot simply isn’t falling, but that he’s otherwise ready for game action. Over the last few weeks, though (including preseason), Calderon has looked downright lost on the court, unsure of how to get his team into their offence to start games (the team has come out flat the last three games, losing their last three first quarters), he looks unsure of when to attack and when to pass and he looks wholly unable to adopt the ‘push-the-pace’ style that coach Jay Triano has been preaching since he took over the club last December. To watch him play is to see a player trying to make his mark – it just seems like he’s totally unsure of how he’s going to do it.

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Injury Timeout: Michael Redd

Get some knee braces on this guy, stat!  (D. Garrabrant/NBAE/Getty Images)

Get some knee braces on this guy, stat! (D. Garrabrant/NBAE/Getty Images)

As you’ve probably heard by now if you peruse fantasy basketball blogs, Michael Redd is out the next two weeks with a strained patella tendon.  Or rather, out at least two weeks.  Normally, I would just consider two-week injuries a natural part of fantasy basketball, but when you hear “at least” in front of that two weeks… yuck.  (But it also means it’s blog-worthy!)  The fantasy impact:

Brandon Jennings

The guys over at Brew Hoop were exactly right when they mentioned Jennings would have to shoulder more of the offensive load.  And I’m thrilled to have arguably the least-hyped (at least during the pre-season) of those rookie PGs (Tyreke Evans, Jonny Flynn, and Stephen Curry the others) on all my fantasy teams.  While I don’t think I would mind having him the entire year, despite the ups and downs, Jennings could certainly also be a sell high candidate in two weeks.  Stay tuned.

(By the way, I love this kid’s swagger.  I usually wouldn’t start a rookie PG in his third pro game in fantasy, but didn’t you just have a feeling he would bring it against D-Rose last night?  Let the man-crush begin…)

Andrew Bogut

After a putrid first two games, in which he looked “out of sorts and uninvolved”, Bogut was very involved last night, chipping in 16 and 13 with 3 blk.  I like to think he would’ve come around eventually anyway, but Redd’s absence will certainly make things easier.  I got lucky and made a small deal for him pre-Redd’s injury in one of my leagues, but there’s a small chance you won’t even have to make a trade, as he’s available in 25% of Yahoo leagues after that slow start.  So act fast if you need a C.

Hakim Warrick

I actually dropped Warrick for Jennings in one of my leagues last week, but I believe he deserves a look in most leagues, especially these next two weeks.  His minutes were limited the Bucks’ first couple games, but Scott Skiles inserted Warrick into the starting lineup because a) that was probably going to happen anyway and b) the Bucks needed the offensive lift.  Warrick only responded with 11 points on 5-15 shooting, but he also chipped in 10 rebounds and 1 stl/blk in 34 minutes.

And while I can’t get too excited about his career %s or lack of 3′s, this whole situation reminds me of a similar one in Milwaukee last year.  (Charlie Villanueva, anyone?)

Charlie Bell

If Redd’s injury turns out to be serious, all those guys above become even more valuable, and Bell becomes fantasy-viable for the first time since 2006-07.  (He’s already worth a look in deeper leagues.)  Fantasy-wise, he had a decent game last night chipping in 11 points on 5-11 shooting with one 3-pt.  Real life-wise, he had a great game, helping to shut down John Salmons (something I’m sure Scott Skiles can appreciate).

Did I leave anyone/anything out?  Feel free to let me know below…

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Schmuck Bait: Buy Low Sell High, Week 1

Jason Kidd is a nice buy-low target.  His wife has nothing to do w/ this article but she's, uh, wearing a bikini.  (SI)

Jason Kidd is a nice buy-low target. His wife has nothing to do w/ this article but she, uh, looks not so bad. (SI)

A week into the season is plenty of time for people to start panicking about their teams.  It’s also a perfect time to make some sneaky trades.  And so, the first installment of Buy Low Sell High.  (I know, I know.  I’ll try to come up with a better name once my brain isn’t fried.)

As a bonus, I’ll throw in some salesman-y schmuck bait you can use with each player.

BUY LOW

Al Jefferson

He missed a good chunk of the pre-season due to a sore Achilles, and his minutes were limited the first couple games.  So, in a way, he’s still getting into basketball shape.  I know, because he’s sinking one of my teams right now.  But if the guy who owns Big Al in your league isn’t as patient, feel free to lob him an offer.

The schmuck bait: He’s one wobbly knee from imploding your entire season.  (This is actually true, but I like him to stay relatively healthy.)

Jason Kidd

Kidd hasn’t been a scorer in years, but he’s only made four shots in three games so far!  I’m not even expecting double-digit scoring from him, but if he can hit 1.X threes per game, his numbers will be pretty close to last year, when he was a top 10 player by totals.  And according to some of my readers, his owners are already getting antsy with his lack of 3′s/scoring, even though all the other numbers are there.

The schmuck bait: He’s old (i.e., fantasy finished).

Jose Calderon

A lot of people, including me, expected big things from Calderon this year after he took the summer off to improve his conditioning.  Looks like he should’ve spent more time getting acquainted with Hedo Turkoglu.  Here’s a telling stat: Calderon has already missed 4 FTs this year — more than all of last year.  To me, that would hint that this initial slow start is more mental than anything else.  It might take him a while to get used to Hedo, in which case you have time to decide whether he’s worth the “gamble”, but I’d act sooner than later.

The schmuck bait: He’s a Spaniard.  Just kidding.  He’s still unproven over an entire year as a go-to PG.

11/o6/09 UPDATE: Please see my Tough Questions post about Calderon to see exactly what I mean by “gamble”.

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Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Eye-Opening Lines from Sunday night

Like Danilo Gallinari, Channing Frye is offically "en fuego". (P.A. Molumby/NBAE/Getty Images)

Like Danilo Gallinari, Channing Frye is offically "en fuego". (P.A. Molumby/NBAE/Getty Images)

Again, in the first couple weeks of the season, sometimes it’s all about being the first in line.  I’ll do this more regularly (probably every Sunday/Wednesday) during the season, but I just wanted to point out a few impressive lines so you can snatch these guys while they’re still around (especially if there’s an “again” next to their name).

Note: Danilo Gallinari and Brandon Jennings are not on this list because they didn’t play Sunday.

Channing Frye

A day after dropping 6 threes against the Warriors — yes, even though it’s against GS, the stats still count — Frye dropped 6 more on the T-Wolves.  (Yes, even though it’s against MIN, the stats still count.)  Frye was a popular item in many drafts after a solid pre-season, and even though his production will likely take a (small?) hit when Robin Lopez returns, Frye has clearly earned a place in the rotation.  And he’s only owned in 52% of Yahoo leagues right now.

Ryan Gomes

Gomes finally had a big game, putting up 23 and 15 with 2 threes/steals.  Sure it was against the Suns, and the Wolves are of course without Kevin Love, but sometimes we all just need a running head start to get going, right?  (Currently owned in 29% of Yahoo leagues.)

Grant Hill (again)

Even with Jason Richardson returning from a 2-game suspension, Hill put up 23 and 10 with 1/1/1.  Again, he should be rostered in most league formats.  (Currently owned in 66% of Yahoo leagues.)

Marc Gasol (again)

Okay, so he’s already owned in 78% of Yahoo leagues, but he’s playing like he should be owned in all of them right now.  He put up 20 and 11 in his last game.

Peja Stojakovic

Peja had his biggest game of the season, knocking down 6 treys against the Celtics Sunday night.  I personally think there are better options out there (like anyone above), but if you need 3′s you could do worse.  (Currently owned in 60% of Yahoo leagues.)

J.J. Redick

I really don’t feel like checking all of his career game logs, but Redick may have had the best game of his career on Sunday, posting 27, 6, and 5 with 5 threes in Vince Carter’s absence.  If Carter’s injury lingers, Reddick is definitely worth a short term rental if you don’t have to sacrifice too much.  Yes, there are a lot of “if’s” in that sentence.  (Currently owned in 6% of Yahoo leagues.)

Ryan Anderson

And speaking of short term rentals filling in for injured/suspended Magic with long term potential, Anderson had his third consecutive solid game on Sunday, chipping in 5 threes against the Raptors.  Plus, he’s C-eligible in Yahoo leagues.  (Currently owned in 15% of Yahoo leagues.)

Other guys to keep an eye on (that may not have played Sunday):

Marreese Speights, Courtney Lee, Corey Brewer, Larry Hughes, DeJuan Blair, Erick Dampier

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