Archive for category Fantasy Basketball Pickups

20-Second Timeout: Lou Williams, Sergio Rodriguez, and C.J. Watson

A few quick newsy post-trade items.  (Thanks to a friend of the blog, Alan, for pointing them out.)

Lou Williams

The headline from Liberty Ballers says it all: “Iverson out indefinitely; career with Sixers could be over”

Sweet Lou should be snatched up immediately and has a chance to regain top 50 status (the rest of the way) with Allen Iverson (potentially) out of the way.  Jrue Holiday and Willie Green, once he returns from injury, also deserve looks in deeper leagues, while Andre Iguodala owners should be all smiles right now.

Sergio Rodriguez

Getting the start for NY tonight.  The game just started, and there’s a good chance he might be gone by halftime.  Depending on how far Chris Duhon has fallen, this could also be an extra bonus for Eddie House.  (House, by the way, should probably provide bigger immediate returns, as he knows the offense much better already.  Keep an eye on the situation, as he in fact might be the right add, even though nobody’s really talking about him yet.)

C.J. Watson

Corey Maggette will be out until at least March 8, freeing up some time for Watson, Anthony Morrow, and Anthony Tolliver as fantasy squads gear up for the stretch run.  Watson has been very productive lately, and even though he plays a different position than Maggette, we all know that doesn’t really matter to Nellie.  Check to see if Lou or Sergio are available first — if they’re gone, Watson is a nice consolation.

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Week 17 Recap (Snatch Blatche) and Week 18 Pickups

Week 17 was all about the trades.  It saw the emergence of a perennial sleeper candidate (or two), the triumphant (at least for now) return of a former first rounder, and the early deaths of some promising fantasy seasons… all the result of big-time trades.  The Recap:

Not to rain on T-Mac's parade, but another former Magic/Rocket, Steve Francis, also had a solid Knick debut with 16, 5, and 4. Just saying... (Getty)

Cavs lose!  Cavs lose!  Cavs lose!

That’s right, the new-look Cavs are 0-3 after acquiring Antawn Jamison.  Is it the curse of Big Z?  Or is it a hex of fantasy owners of Jamison, Ilgauskas, J.J. Hickson, and Anderson Varejao?  Of course, the trade had obvious fantasy ramifications (basically, it sucked for all the guys mentioned above), but why is the losing streak so important?  Because it means the Cavs and Lakers are in a near-dead heat for the top record in the NBA… which is great news if you own guys like LeBron or Kobe, who probably can’t afford to rest late into the season as the race for home court advantage comes down to the wire.

(Meanwhile, Jamison put up a dud in his first game but bounced back on Sunday.  All those other bigs in CLE?  I’m not sure they’ll ever bounce back.)

T-Mac + D’Antoni = WTF

If you look at my rankings of the biggest trade deadline winners (and losers), I had Tracy McGrady ranked near the top of the second tier (although of course qualified that by saying he had the biggest upside of anyone on the list).  Well, he made his case for being ranked near the top of the first tier in his first game as a Knick, going off for 26, 4, and 5 with great percentages.  Hell, he even shocked himself, as he didn’t expect to play more than 20 min and was admittedly exhausted by the end of the OT game.

I’ve always said the main reason I would own McGrady would be to sell high on him after a hot streak.  Well, this might be the right time if you can get a good bounty in return.  However, Mike D’Antoni has said the Knicks are going to run the rest of the way (See: Wilson Chandler starting at PF instead of SG, where he has started all year).  And with T-Mac playing nice and saying he’s willing to come back to NY at a discount next year, D’Antoni just might keep running him out there for 30+ mpg to build chemistry.  Because of his injury risk, I’d be inclined to sell high, but don’t sell yourself short.

Fantasy ROY Race

First it was Tyreke Evans vs. Brandon Jennings.  Then it was Evans vs. Stephen Curry.  Now is it Curry vs. Darren Collison?  Okay, that’s an overstatement.  But over the last three weeks, it’s been pretty close:


FG% FT% 3PM PTS REB AST STL BLK TO
Stephen Curry .434 .933 2.2 18.4 4.6 7.6 1.8 0.0 4.1
Darren Collison .473 .829 1.1 19.7 4.7 9.8 1.7 0.2 4.9

Of course, when Chris Paul returns, this race ends, but it just goes to show how valuable both have been over the last three weeks, and how valuable Curry will be the rest of the year.

WEEK 18 PICKUPS

I’m going to steal from myself and just reiterate some of the biggest trade deadline winners, with some slight adjustments given 3 days-worth of new info.

First of all, trade deadline winners like Andray Blatche (62%) , Tyrus Thomas (63%), T-Mac (74%), and Josh Howard (76%) have already cleared the 50% ownership mark in Yahoo leagues and will thus be excluded.  (I like them in that order by the way.)  The rest:

Casspi & Butler. Ambiguously gay photo, unambiguously solid fantasy pickups. (Getty)

Omri Casspi (33%)

Casspi posted 15, 5, and 3 with 3 steals in his first game with the new-look Kings.  Nothing flashy, but he should get relatively consistent minutes in SAC the rest of the way, as he and Evans are the clear building blocks of that team’s future.

JaVale McGee (17%)

It’s tough to find 11 ppg, 7.3 rpg, and 2.7 bpg off the FA list, but that’s exactly what McGee has delivered in 3 post-trade starts… and all while playing with a sprained wrist.

Rasual Butler (31%)

He can be streaky, but right now he’s streaking the right direction with 17 treys in his last 5 games.  It might take some time, but with Al Thornton out of the way and Travis Outlaw’s indefinite return, Butler could slowly make his was off this list by clearing the 50% hurdle.

C.J. Watson (18%)

Watson has reemerged with Monta Ellis starting to burn out.  Don Nelson recently stated he would not be running guys out for 40+ mpg sometime soon, which means Watson should/might start getting consistent playing time again.  So while I wouldn’t expect the 27, 4, and 4 with great percentages and ~2 treys/stl per game that Watson posted last week, I’d still expect useful fantasy stats.

DeAndre Jordan (5%)

Jordan had a mixed bag of results in the Clips’ first 3 games without Marcus Camby, averaging 8 and 8 with 2.3 bpg.  Those numbers might not be worth taking on his atrocious FT%, but if you’ve already punted that category, he’s a nice pickup.  If not, approach with caution.  (Also keep in mind that Drew Gooden has decided not to take a buy-out and will stay with the Clips.  Obviously Gooden cares about winning and not living in sunny southern California…)

Sergio Rodriguez (9%) and Eddie House (13%)

Rodriguez was the hot pickup after whispers that he might start in New York.  And even though he had a lackluster debut, he’d still be a big catch running the Knicks’ new old up-tempo offense.  Meanwhile, House — who has played and excelled for D’Antoni before — stepped right in and had a huge first game as the Knicks’ super-6th man.  Looks like they both have a chance to make a splash in NY, but just remember that Rodriguez has a real chance to average 8+ apg if/when he steps into that starter’s role before you give up on him.

Keep an eye on… everyone from my trade deadline post, with some tweaks:

Taj Gibson (24% — I’m slightly downgrading him from my previous list because Joakim Noah has already returned; check Noah’s status and think about selling high on Gibson if Noah’s foot starts feeling better), Nate Robinson (52% — been dropped so much he might actually be available; keep an eye on his new role in BOS), Al Thornton and Hakim Warrick (45% and 14% — slight upgrades after debuts on new squads), Jonas Jerebko (9%), Shannon Brown (6% — check Kobe’s status), Mario Chalmers (33% — check Rafer Alston’s status), and last but not least, Anthony Tolliver (6%)

Which trade deadline winner would you prefer on your squad?

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Trade Fallout: So many trades, so few roster spots

Wow, that was a busy trade season.  I haven’t seen that many players swapped since baseball cards were still cool to collect.  But since, realistically, most of us only had one or two roster spots to tinker with, how do we make sense of all the trade winners and losers?  Well, here’s my preliminary ranking (by tiers) of guys who are available in 50+% of Yahoo leagues (at least, before the trading deadline):

MUST-OWNS

Andray Blatche

First game post-Jamison and Haywood said it all, even if it came against the undersized T-Wolves.

Omri Casspi

Put up top 50 numbers when Martin was out earlier this year, and is a clear building block of the franchise.

Tyrus Thomas

With ample playing time, expect some wild stl/blk stat lines in the future.

JaVale McGee (at least in deeper leagues)

Like Blatche, he had an eye-opening effort against the T-Wolves,  Before that, he’s been very promising in stretches, albeit inconsistent.  He’s in the top tier because of his upside and the fact that his FT% isn’t nearly as bad as another C I’ll mention below.

NICE-TO-OWNS

Taj Gibson

Should see a nice boost while Joakim Noah is out.  Otherwise, at least he should enjoy a nice boost in confidence with Thomas gone.

Sergio Rodriguez

This guy might belong in the top tier if he can take Chris Duhon’s starting job, as has been rumored.  He’s probably a must-own in deeper leagues based purely on speculation.

Tracy McGrady

It’s kind of sad I would rather own Sergio Rodriguez right now, but T-Mac probably has more upside than anyone on this list.  He’s the true wild card of this group.

Josh Howard

Okay, he’s probably already taken in your league.  But if not, I’d rank him right below T-Mac.

Rasual Butler

Al Thornton’s exit and Travis Outlaw’s uncertain return mean big minutes for Butler.

DeAndre Jordan

Mixed bag in first two games post-Marcus Camby.  His upside is equal to McGee’s, but in his career as a starter he’s shooting a putrid 36% on a substantial 4.4 FT attempts per game.  His inconsistency might not be worth that negative pressure.

Craig Smith

Doesn’t do much besides score and score efficiently.  Those looking to make a last minute charge up the FG% ranks in roto leagues should consider him.

Francisco Garcia

He was a stud last year after the Kings traded away John Salmons.  The only problem this year — Tyreke Evans, Donte Greene, and Omri Casspi are all emerging and playing well.  And who knows what Larry Hughes’ role will be.

Donte Greene

See: Garcia, Francisco.

KEEP AN EYE ON

Nate Robinson

I dropped Nate for JaVale McGee in what was a needs-based move in one league, but BOS might actually be a good situation for Nate.  You know they want to rest Ray Allen for the playoffs, so it’s possible Nate could get 25-30 mpg as an instant offense sixth man.  Or, he could get the same minutes Eddie House was getting.  Who knows?  So keep an eye on him.

Nick Young

WAS is playing for the future, and Young would qualify as such.  If you need 3’s, they might start falling soon…

Rudy Fernandez and Jerryd Bayless

Even with Steve Blake gone, these guys kind of cancel each other out.  If Brandon Roy continues to be hampered by his hammy, both would enjoy instant upgrades.

Jared Jeffries and Hilton Armstrong

Jeffries’ skills are a perfect match for Houston’s style of play.  However, he probably won’t get close to the minutes he was getting in NY.  We’ll have to wait and see what that averages out to.  And speaking of playing time, Armstrong will be battling Jeffries for the minutes that Carl Landry vacated in Houston.  He hasn’t done much this year, but has been useful for stretches in the past.

Hakim Warrick

He doesn’t do much besides score, but CHI chose him over more defensive big men like Kurt Thomas and Francisco Elson for a reason.  With Salmons gone, Warrick could be leaned on for some (unorthodox) post scoring.

Beno Udrih

Udrih was useful the first time Martin was missing games, but the return of Francisco Garcia complicates that backcourt enough for me to be cautiously optimistic about Udrih the rest of the way.

Al Thornton

A change of scenery might do him good, but he’s still playing behind Mike Miller and Howard.

IT’S NOT YOU, IT’S ME…

You might not want to cut some of these guys right away, but if you have to in order to snatch one of the “Must-Owns” I’d probably make the move.

Channing Frye

I’m sticking Frye on this list because he was probably hurt the most by the Suns’ inability to trade Amare Stoudemire.  He could still very possibly get hot for multiple games at a time, but Robin Lopez is entrenched as the starter now, killing Frye’s consistency.  (I’d hang onto him in deeper leagues though.)

J.J. Hickson and Anderson Varejao

Again, maybe wait at least a couple days before dropping these guys, but that CLE frontcourt is awfully crowded now. But do what you gotta do and don’t look back.

Drew Gooden

Looks like he’s staying in Clipperland, where he might actually be somewhat useful, but his upside is limited.

Ronnie Brewer and Charlie Bell

Brewer and Bell are headed to the MEM and MIL benches, and there are definitely more attractive fish in the sea.

Zydrunas Ilgauskas

If his contract is bought out, he’s worthless for 4 weeks.  If he rejoins CLE or goes to DAL, it’s not much better.

Erick Dampier

I was down on him from the start.  A broken finger sealed his fate.

Did I miss anyone?  Of course I did.  Feel free to let me know below…

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Trade Fallout: McGrady, Thomas, Robinson, Salmons, Boozer(?)

Thanks to the recession and the possibility of an NBA lockout next season, trading is fast and furious this season.  I’ll try to rank the biggest gainers by the end of today, as you’ll need to be quick to grab some of these names off FA lists.  So far, among potentially available pickups, Andray Blatche appears to be the biggest winner, with JaVale McGee, DeAndre Jordan, Craig Smith, Donte Greene, and Francisco Garcia trailing.  But more on that later.

You should be checking Rotowire, Rotoworld, and Adrian Wojnarowski’s Twitter feed (all in the right-hand column) up until the trade deadline of 3 pm EST and even a couple hours after, as some trades come in late.  Here’s some of the latest chatter I haven’t covered yet:

Tracy McGrady to NY (after all)

McGrady is worth a flyer in most leagues.  With Larry Hughes headed to SAC, Donte Greene and Francisco Garcia’s prospects look slightly dimmer, and I’d probably rather gamble on McGrady.

Meanwhile, for those of you looking for assists, keep an eye on Chris Duhon’s new backup, Sergio Rodriguez.  They could very well swap roles by the end of the season.

John Salmons to MIL

Salmons will likely start at SG and gets an immediate upgrade.  Charlie Bell loses his starting job, while Carlos Delfino might lose some touches.

Tyrus Thomas to CHA

Thomas gets a boost in CHA as his playing time will likely increase.  Boris Diaw might take a slight hit, while Gerald Wallace’s rebounding numbers might also dip some.

Nate Robinson to BOS

Initially I didn’t like this move for Nate, but check tonight’s game to see what his his role will (roughly) be.

Carlos Boozer to MIA?

Apparently, UTA and MIA are in last minute trade talks.  As a Paul Millsap owner, I’m hoping this happens.  As a D-Wade fan, I’m also hoping this happens.

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Trade Fallout: Tracy McGrady traded for Kevin Martin (Damn you for making me rewrite this, Daryl Morey!)

Remember that last T-Mac post?  Perhaps you glossed over the Sacramento part of it.  That’s because Daryl Morey is a sneaky bastard.

Tracy McGrady is actually headed to Sacramento in exchange for Kevin Martin (hey, at least I was right about the “marquee player” part).  Also going to Sacto: Joey Dorsey and (shockingly) Carl Landry.  Also going to H-Town: Kenny Thomas, Hilton Armstrong, and Sergio Rodriguez.  There are still a lot of moving parts to this deal — for example, T-Mac could still end up in New York by Thursday night, and Rodriquez could end up elsewhere as well, as the Rockets already have two pretty good PG’s in Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry.  But here’s the initial fallout:

Biggest winner: Martin — he desperately needed a change in scenery, and while he still won’t get the 20+ shot attempts/game he was getting at the beginning of the year, I think his shots start falling sooner rather than later.  As I said in my false last T-Mac post, I also like Trevor Ariza to improve his efficiency now that he’s a clear #3 or even #3.5 scoring option.

Meanwhile, the athletic Armstrong has a chance to carve out a place in the HOU rotation, with Landry vacating 25-30 minutes of playing time there.  And if Sacto ends up shipping T-Mac away, expect Francisco Garcia to be relevant again, as a starter or as Donte Greene’s backup.  Omri Casspi should also rediscover some of that shooting touch he enjoyed earlier this year.

One more thing: It’s hard to argue against T-Mac here, as going from zero minutes to any minutes will likely help his fantasy value.  (Yes, I copied and pasted that from the previous post, and I’m not afraid to do it again if T-Mac ends up in NY.)

Keep an eye on: That three-headed frontcourt monster of Landry, Jason Thompson, and Spencer Hawes.  I think all three will still log minutes, but this trade definitely limits the upside of all three as well.

Biggest loser: If you were using Shane Battier in a deeper league, unfortunately he might start seeing his minutes squeezed soon.  Even if he still starts, you can expect Ariza to shift over to SF with Martin at SG for long stretches, and Battier’s stats have always been pretty well-correlated with his minutes.

On the Sacramento side, the fantasy “losers” really depend on whether or not T-Mac gets shipped out.  If he stays, he basically hurts those same guys — Garcia, Greene, and Casspi — I mentioned above.

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Trade Fallout: Emir Preldzic traded!

That’s right — Cleveland has traded the rights to Emir Preldzic to Washington (in exchange for Antawn Jamison).  This was actually a three-team deal, with CLE getting Jamison and Sebastian Telfair, WAS getting Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Al Thornton, Brian Skinner, and of course EMIR PRELDZIC(!), and LAC getting Drew Gooden.  Ilgauskas and Gooden will likely both be bought out, with Ilgauskas likely returning to CLE and Gooden likely heading back to DAL.  (If true, both should be dropped, as they won’t even be in action for 30 days.)

The fantasy fallout?  No immediate hot pickups (that I haven’t already discussed in detail) jump out at me.  Here’s the quick rundown:

Biggest winner: Besides the entire city of Cleveland?  Thornton might have a chance to jumpstart his season, but I’m not rushing to own him as he’s still behind Mike Miller, Josh Howard, and possibly even James Singleton on the depth chart.  And oh yeah, Andray Blatche is a must-own now (I’ve mentioned him so much lately I almost forgot to include him), while JaVale McGee deserves a long look.

(The other winners here?  Amare Stoudemire and Troy Murphy owners, as they won’t have to worry about their big men being destroyed by that CLE frontcourt situation.)

Keep an eye on: Rasual Butler and Travis Outlaw now only have each other to compete with for minutes at the SF spot in LAC.  Both should be solid weekly plays the rest of the way, with Butler especially roster-worthy as long as Outlaw is still injured.

Biggest loser: The entire city of New York.  The much-anticipated LeBron sweepstakes of 2010 might not even happen if the LeBron/Jamison experiment works out.

From a fantasy perspective, Jamison takes a hit in value, as do all the other bigs in CLE: J.J. Hickson, Anderson Varejao, Shaquille O’Neal, and Ilgauskas (when he returns).  Hickson made my last weekly pickups list because I assumed the team willing to deal their stud PF would at least get him in return.  WAS failed me, and Hickson’s fantasy value is on life support now.  Damn you, Wizards!

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Trade Fallout: Tracy McGrady (to be) traded for the Knicks Bench… or the Bulls Bench

And I thought I procrastinated.

The Rockets are nearing a deal with the Knicks that would send Tracy McGrady to New York for Jared Jeffries, Jordan Hill, Larry Hughes and an assortment of draft picks/swaps/etc.  OR… a deal that would send T-Mac to the Bulls for Tyrus Thomas, Brad Miller, and John Salmons or Kirk Hinrich.

If you own any Rockets, you’re hoping for the first deal, as those incoming Knicks players won’t “interfere” as much with current team chemistry.  Since Houston has just been looking for a marquee player or future prospects (and because I’m feeling a little bit lazy), I’m guessing they go with the Knicks deal as well.  The fallout (Daryl Morey, please don’t make me re-write this post):

Biggest winner: It’s hard to argue against T-Mac here, as going from zero minutes to any minutes will likely help his fantasy value.  Although Mike D’Antoni has said as recently as last weekend that he planned to play “the kids” the rest of the way, he has also (contradictorily) said he’ll play T-Mac.  And here’s my theory on why:

Mike D’Antoni to LeBron and/or D-Wade: “Hey, if raggedy T-Mac can average 15-5-5 with this supporting cast, just imagine what you can do!”

So, yeah, expect T-Mac to get some run.  Don’t expect his percentages to be anywhere near respectable, but if they let him play, he’s going to put up stats.

Keep an eye on: The Knicks roster.  Jeffries was the only player of the three dealt getting significant playing time, which one would assume T-Mac will take a chunk of.  That means everyone else should get a couple more minutes, especially guys like Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari.  But Jeffries also didn’t shoot as much as T-Mac probably will, so it remains to be seen how their scoring will be affected.  If the Knicks successfully shop Al Harrington, those two guys in particular will probably gain the most.

Biggest loser: Jeffries was already only useful in deeper leagues, but I find it hard for him to maintain his numbers, which took him 30+ (and sometimes 40) mpg to get.

But the real (collective) biggest loser is all of the Houston Rockets, as the three newbies each have potential to carve out a place in the rotation.  I think Aaron Brooks is the only guy whose numbers won’t be affected.  But guys like Carl Landry and Luis Scola could easily lose some touches/rebounds to Jeffries and Hill.  They’re still worth owning, but the chance of an occasional dud just got a little bit higher for those guys.

The one exception might be Trevor Ariza, who has already been supplanted by Brooks as the #1 scoring option earlier in the year and later by Landry as the #2 scoring option.  If Ariza gets knocked down to, say, the #4 option, I think most owners would actually welcome the increased efficiency.

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Trade Fallout: Marcus Camby (about to be) traded for Pennies on the Dollar

I was about to post a Western Conference edition of my previous Trade Winds post, but since the action is already in motion, let’s just evaluate the imminent trade that will send Marcus Camby to the Blazers for Steve Blake, Travis Outlaw, and a bucket of beers.

Biggest winner: Jerryd Bayless will be a popular add over the next few days, but it’s hard for me to get too excited about him with Brandon Roy coming back soon and Rudy Fernandez healthy again.  He could have a nice week if Roy misses more time though, and has been useful when getting ~25 mpg, which is a real possibility now.  I think the two guys who stand to benefit the most are DeAndre Jordan and Craig SmithIf you need to hit a homerun to win your league, I’d take a chance on Jordan — consider him a poor man’s Camby.  Smith, meanwhile, could be a great addition for those in roto leagues looking for help in FG%.  (And even as I’m hyping them both, I also have to point out both will negatively impact your FT%, especially Jordan.)

Keep an eye on: Baron Davis.  Now that the Clippers have officially waved the white flag (yes, I know, I actually predicted they’d make the playoffs this year, and they were in contention as late as mid-January, when they proceeded to lose 8 of 9 games), it’ll be that much harder for Davis to bring his game every night.  The Clippers already put up an awful effort against Golden State in their last game before the break — perhaps they knew a big trade was already in the works.  Who knows, maybe Davis will still bring it and continue bringing it late into the season, but if I were in a H2H league I might start exploring trade options for B-Diddy.

Andre Miller is a wild card too.  This is definitely a great vote of confidence for him, and he’s been playing well (for the most part) lately.  But with Roy coming back soon, any boost in motivation might be offset by Roy’s inevitable 20, 5, and 5 every night.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he continues putting up his current February splits of 14 ppg and 7 apg — basically the Andre Miller of old.

Biggest loser: LaMarcus Aldridge was finally starting to get his rebounding stats to respectability, averaging a shade under 10 rpg in February without Greg Oden or Joel Przybilla.  Now he has to contend with a more voracious rebounder than either of those guys.  Plus, with Roy coming back, LA won’t be called upon to score as much.  He’ll still be very useful, just not nearly as good as he has been recently.  It also looks like one of my favorite waiver guys, Rasual Butler, and Al Thornton might see a slight dip in minutes/production with Outlaw (eventually) coming aboard, while Juwan Howard is now droppable in most formats.

Which big man would you prefer on your team?

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Week 16 Recap (That was short) and Week 17 Pickups

WEEK 16 RECAP

After a shortened week and a lackluster dunk contest, I have to admit the All Star game itself was kind of exciting, at least for an exhibition game.  You could tell the 108,000+ spectators helped to motivate the players (or distract, in the case of one Deron Williams).

Hmm, did anything else happen last week?  Well, there was that trade.  And oh yeah, Stephen Curry put up a ridiculous triple-double (36, 10, and 13 with 7 treys) thanks to a buzzer-beating rebound with the help of one of the most clutch box-outs I’ve ever seen…by Anthony Tolliver (more on him below).  Check out the 6:30 mark for the play:

In fact, Curry has been so impressive lately, I’m not even going to mention those two other guys until they show me they’re capable of making this a Fantasy ROY race again.

See, I told you Week 16 was short.

WEEK 17 PICKUPS

As has been the theme around here lately, most of these pickups will actually be speculative long-term adds based on trade rumors.  Others will be named Anthony Tolliver.  (p.s. Anthony Morrow and Darren Collison have both cleared the 50% ownership mark required for this list, but make sure neither are taken before continuing below.)

Andray Blatche (34%)

See my post from over the weekend.  But essentially, with Brendan Haywood out of the picture and Antawn Jamison likely (but not surely) to follow, the door is open for Blatche to get 35+ minutes a night.  In 4 games as a starter this year, Blatche is only averaging 11 ppg and 7.5 rpg with 1.8 bpg in 34 mpg, but that was as a starting PF playing alongside Haywood.  Last year, he averaged 12 ppg and 6 rpg with ~1 spg/bpg in 28 mpg as a starting C without Haywood.  Project that to 35 mpg, and those numbers come out to roughly 14 ppg and 8 rpg with 1+ spg/bpg.  Add in the Wizards’ great playoff schedule in H2H leagues, and you want to own this kid.

Drew Gooden (28%)

I also like Gooden’s value to take a step up as he’ll get more consistent minutes in WAS (assuming he isn’t flipped to a contender).  In fact, the only downside to owning Blatche will be seeing Gooden gobble up double-digit boards on certain nights, while Blatche only snatches 5 or so.  That being said, I’d still prefer Blatche for his steals and blocks, but Gooden will be an excellent source of rebounds.

Anthony Tolliver (7%)

Curry and Tolliver probably won't lead Golden State to many W's this year.  Good thing we live in a fantasy world.  (Getty)

Curry and Tolliver probably won't lead Golden State to many W's this year. Good thing we live in a fantasy world. (Getty)

Gasp!  What is this — a player who likely doesn’t stand to benefit from a trade on this list?  Well, with the rate that Monta Ellis, Corey Maggette, and the rest of the Warriors get injured, Tolliver is essentially getting theboost in minutes a trade would have.  (Not to mention Andris Biedrins actually has been mentioned in some rumors.  But then again, who hasn’t this year?)  There are so many different ways to hype Tolliver, but I’ll just go with his averages from the last 3 games: 17 ppg and 8 rpg with 1.3/1.0/0.7 3s/stl/blk.

The Warriors recently decided to cut Speedy Claxton’s valuable expiring contract to keep Tolliver (a move that angered many GS fans), so you can expect management will give him plenty of minutes to prove himself the rest of the way.  I recently picked up Tolliver, then dropped him for Blatche.  If Carlos Boozer doesn’t get traded, I’m dropping Paul Millsap for this kid.

[02/18/10 UPDATE -- Boozer didn't get dealt, but Ronnie Brewer did, freeing up time for both Andrei Kirilenko and Millsap.  Add in the fact that Millsap has been on fire lately and looks to get 30+ mpg, and no, I am in fact not dropping him for Tolliver at this point.  Just to clarify...]

Robin Lopez (38%)

He sputtered a bit last week, but with Amare Stoudemire trade rumors swirling faster than a Mid-Atlantic snowstorm, Lopez is worth owning (or at least keeping a close eye on) over the next 3 days.

J.J. Hickson (9%)

Speaking of Amare trade rumors, Hickson will be a likely beneficiary of any trade the Cavs make because the Cavs will likely be bringing in a stud PF (Amare, Jamison, or Troy Murphy), leaving a nice, empty starting PF spot on the other team.  Of course, Hickson wouldn’t have LeBron James feeding him for easy scores anymore, but considering the opposing team would most likely be rebuilding (except in the case of the Suns), and Hickson should get more run than he did/does in CLE.

Keep an eye on:

Wow, I didn’t realize this list was so F-C heavy.  Here are some other guys to keep an eye on (including G’s!), either due to trade speculation or strong play: Brad Miller and Taj Gibson (43% and 10% respectively — Joakim Noah still hurting and Tyrus Thomas on the trade block), Ryan Gomes (32%), Marcus Thornton (38% — coming back from injury and should still benefit from Chris Paul’s absence), DeJuan Blair (25%), George Hill (38% — better with Tony Parker healthy?), Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (8% — 11 rpg over last 3), Jared Jeffries (8%), T.J. Ford (33% — don’t get your hopes up, but back in rotation), Marquis Daniels (2%), Charlie Bell (4% — a trey in 12 straight games)

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Trade Fallout: Caron Butler (close to being) traded for Josh Howard

The first firm trade rumors are in, and it looks like the Wizards are dumping salary by shipping Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood, and DeShawn Stevenson (and perhaps a player to be named later) to Dallas in exchange for Josh Howard, Drew Gooden, and perhaps James Singleton (which might be relevant in deeper leagues).  Using the format from my last post, let’s evaluate this sucker:

Biggest winner: Howard has a chance to improve his value the most, but I still think the most valuable guy will be Mike Miller, as I could really see him controlling the ball for long stretches.  Meanwhile, with Haywood out of the picture (and perhaps Antawn Jamison to follow), Andray Blatche should be snatched immediately.  And although WAS should have little incentive to play him, Gooden is playing for his next contract and should be motivated (and possibly starting, depending on Jamison’s situation).

Keep an eye on: I’m not sure who will start at SG, but Nick Young should get plenty of touches.  JaVale McGee should also get more playing time.  He’s had some nice stretches but expect inconsistency.  Those in deep leagues should also track Dominic McGuire, who hasn’t done anything this year but was useful at the end of last season.

Biggest loser: Erick Dampier.  (He’s such an easy target that I feel bad picking on him, but if you Google those four words — biggest loser and Erick Dampier — you get over 1,400 hits.  Sad.)

Meanwhile, Butler’s role should be smaller in Dallas, although his efficiency might creep up playing alongside a better distributor in Jason Kidd and a better “floor-spreader guy” (I think that’s the technical term) in Dirk Nowitzki.  Overall, I think Butler will be more motivated because he’s going from a truly crappy/depressing situation in WAS to a title-contending (in theory) situation, so I’d at least expect some of the hustle/defensive numbers to creep up.

And since I’m having trouble making a decision in one of my leagues, I’ll solicit your opinions:

Heading into the trade deadline, which 2 of these 3 big men would you rather have?

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Since the above poll is a tad specific, which big man would you prefer heading into the trade deadline?

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