
I'd be wearing shades if I just got pummeled by Andrew Bynum and friends too. (Getty Images)
There were only two games on Thursday night, with one line that really jumped out at me…
Amare Stoudemire
With 8 pts and 5 reb on 2-15 shooting, Stoudemire easily had his worst game of the season on Thursday, the third of three very mediocre games in a row (although two of them were blowouts where he didn’t top 26 min). I actually had a chance to see the game at Staples last night (thanks for the tix, Frank), and honestly, it was one of those games that didn’t look as bad (for Amare) in person as it did on paper. (Although the missed dunk was slightly embarrassing.)
That being said, I think he is at his absolute lowest BUY LOW point of the season right now, for a few reasons:
The Tough Schedule
As Bright Side of the Sun pointed out, the Suns were finishing a back-to-back, which also happened to be the 4th game in 5 nights, which also happened to be the 7th game in 10 nights (with 6 of those 7 games on the road). And even though an eye injury doesn’t seem as serious as, say, a knee injury, Amare still had to sit out several months this year. So you can imagine how winded he was trying to guard Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom last night (which, by the way, just might be the best combo of size, speed, and strength to contain someone like Stoudemire).
The Robin Lopez factor?
Stoudemire is only averaging a mediocre 7.9 rpg and sub-1 bpg, not to mention an uncharacteristic 71% on FT. For the latter, he’s shot over 80% over the last four years, so I’m not worried about that. As for REB, Stoudemire has never been an elite rebounder, so I wouldn’t be surprised if that hovers between 8-9 per game.
The blocks is the most worrisome stat to me, but I still think he’ll clear 1.5 bpg. Stoudemire averaged 1.8 bpg over the first four games, but only has 2 blocks during the last 6-game stretch, in which he’s gone up against Dwight Howard, Bynum, and the Celtics. Can’t blame it all on tired legs, but I think it has played a role.
Also, when Robin Lopez comes back, I think it will actually have a positive impact on Stoudemire’s blocks. Most of Amare’s blocks come on help defense (as with most players), but when Channing Frye is the starting center on your team, it’s more like panic defense than help defense. Frye’s about as soft as they come, and somehow Bynum made him look even softer last night. With Lopez staying between guys and the rim, I like Stoudemire to sneak in some extra blocks.
Here’s a fun fact (take it for what it’s worth): Of Stoudemire’s 9 blocks this season, 4 have come with him playing alongside Frye. 5 have come with him playing alongside better defenders in Louis Amundson, Jarron Collins, and Earl Clark, even though Stoudemire has played alongside Frye 76% of the time so far. 10 games is a small sample, but again, I like Stoudemire to increase his blocks with Lopez stealing some minutes from Frye, thus lowering that “76%”.
The Goggles
It appears Amare is still getting used to those (chemistry lab) goggles. During free throws, Stoudemire flipped them up, which doesn’t seem like a big deal, but it also indicates that he’s still not totally comfortable with them. (Remember, he already ditched them once… which is why he has to wear them the rest of his career now.) Then again, there’s a 96% chance I’m reading into this too much and Stoudemire is in fact just paying homage to Horace Grant. Either way, as his conditioning and goggle-tolerance improves, expect better stats.
The “What have you done for me lately?” factor
Doesn’t it seem like more than a week ago when Stoudemire posterized Kevin Garnett? Well, a 2-15 shooting game kind of makes you forget the good times. If the guy who owns Stoudemire in your league is more focused on his last three games than the three preceding ones, you might have a chance to buy him on the cheap.
So what?
I’m considering offering Brook Lopez for Stoudemire in one league (where I’m already stacked in blocks), but you might be able to get him for much less if you play your cards right. Carlos Boozer, Al Horford, Marcus Camby? I’d rather have Amare than anyone aside from Chris Bosh, Dwight Howard (in H2H leagues), and maybe Andrew Bynum.
After three tough games, this seems like ages ago. (It was a week ago.)

#1 by Patrick on November 14, 2009 - 6:32 am
Interesting thoughts on Amare. I’m really intrigued by the Channing Frye block theory, which seems to make sense. Although you’d expect Amare’s rebound totals to be better play alongside Frye since Frye is a terrible rebounder, but maybe there are other factors at play with his rebounding.
Let us know if you’re able to steal Amare away from any nervous owners.
#2 by Doneycat on November 14, 2009 - 8:19 am
I have Amar’e in one league, and I’m in a definite hold pattern. I’m going to keep him for now for reasons you state, plus I know when he turns it on, it will likely be better than anything I can get.
BTW, aren’t you going to run out of 20 second timeouts? Maybe you should expand to a full (touch your fingertips to your shoulders then spread your arms out wide.)
#3 by fantasy hoopster on November 14, 2009 - 12:46 pm
@Patrick
Yeah, every time Amare gets less than 10 boards a game it amazes me given his athleticism. This is just a guess, but he does seem to love running out on the break (which is every missed shot in PHO). Maybe that’s why he’s only averaging ~5 dREB so far (while Grant Hill is racking up boards). Sadly, I guess Amare’s REB might even get worse w/ Lopez back.
By the way, great article on slow starters over at Give me the Rock. I’m working on a buy low/sell high piece myself and will definitely be referencing some of your thoughts (noting the dates those thoughts were observed, of course, as things tend to change quickly at this point in the season).
#4 by fantasy hoopster on November 14, 2009 - 12:57 pm
@Doneycat
I agree. I could use some help with my clock management. (Actually, these 20-second timeouts always start as quick thoughts which evolve into actual developed thoughts. You know what, I’m changing the category. You’re right, this didn’t take 20 seconds to read or write.)
Btw, great last article/interview: http://talesof9cats.blogspot.com/2009/11/basketball-monster-look-at-monster.html I’ll definitely be regularly visiting both Tales of 9 Cats and Basketball Monster now.