Fantasy Basketball Sleepers 2009-10


Since you all are drafting him, might as well know what he looks like (Rocky Widner/NBAE/Getty Images)

Since you all are drafting him, might as well know what Anthony Randolph looks like (Rocky Widner/NBAE/Getty Images)

I’m not a huge fan of the term “sleeper” when it comes to fantasy basketball.  How many people does it take to jump on the bandwagon before someone graduates from being a Sleeper to becoming just plain Good?  In any case, I’ll try to point out some guys who should provide value where they’re drafted (as long as you don’t reach too far for them).

First of all, a list of guys who have graduated from becoming sleepers: Derrick Rose, Brook Lopez (in fact, they both skipped the whole step of becoming a sleeper), John Salmons, J.R. Smith, Francisco Garcia, Charlie Villanueva, Spencer Hawes, you get the idea.  Now then…

VALUE SLEEPERS (GUYS YOU ALREADY KNOW)

Jameer Nelson, ORL, PG

Nelson already came back from injury, and thankfully for his fantasy owners this year, he didn’t look so hot.  That last image of a player looking a step too slow can sometimes play tricks on fantasy owners, even if an entire summer has passed.  Nelson was a top 30 guy when he was healthy last year, and ORL had enough confidence in his playmaking ability to lose both Rafer Alston and Hedo Turkoglu in the offseason (although of course VC came aboard).  Current average draft position (ADP) in Yahoo leagues: 57.  I like him in the late fourth round (of a 12-team draft).

Chris Duhon, NY, PG

Going along with the “bad taste in your mouth” idea, Duhon made it look easy after the All Star break last year, as he frankly just burned out.  But remember, he’s still the starting PG on a Mike D’Antoni team.  Unless the management in New York has no clue how to run a team (quite possible), they’ll likely monitor Duhon’s minutes more closely this year.  So while he probably won’t drop 22 AST on anyone this year, he’s certainly capable of averaging 7+ apg over an entire year.  He’s not even cracking the top 100 in ADP, but I’d take him in the ninth, maybe eighth round.

Andrew Bynum, LAK, C

Third time’s the charm, right?  After suffering two freak(ish) injuries in the previous two seasons, Bynum’s current ADP is 65.  I plan on taking him in the 50′s because even if he can play just 60+ games (a big if, granted), he should still provide good value there.  And if he’s healthy during your fantasy playoffs for H2H leagues, it’s like having an extra third round pick.

Wilson Chandler, NY, SG, SF

There are several reasons to like Chandler this year.  He’s a potential 1/1/1 guy with position-flexibility.  It’s also worth noting that he’s one of the few Knicks not in a contract year.  While NBA guys playing for their next contract is usually a good thing, in this case Chandler’s situation serves him well because he should be a lock for as many minutes as he can handle for development reasons.

SLEEPERS YOU MIGHT HAVE FORGOTTEN ABOUT

Ramon Sessions, MIN, PG, SG

He was a popular sleeper choice last year after an insane April (’08).  However, he split minutes with Luke Ridnour most of the year and never really found his groove.  While Sessions will be going to a team with arguably even less scorers in the T-Wolves, and also isn’t technically the starting PG, he will get the minutes he needs to produce numbers.  He’s currently not in the top 100 for ADP, but I have a feeling I’ll need to draft him in the eighth round in most of my leagues.

Mario Chalmers, MIA, PG

Here’s another second-year player primed for some improvement.  For one thing, I’m pretty sure he can handle more than the 32 mpg he got last year.  There’s just one disclaimer: with Wade handling the ball so much, Super Mario probably can’t wildly improve on his rookie season.  But I am looking forward to seeing upticks across the board (and he was already at 2 spg last year).

Count on Greg Oden to go Benjamin Button on everyone next year

This guy's only played a year? Count on Oden to go Benjamin Button on everyone next year (AP)

Greg Oden, POR, C

Oden’s current ADP is 115.  I’m fairly confident he can finish the year as at least a top 114 player.  Remember, most players enjoy their biggest statistical improvements between their first and second years, and this is essentially Oden’s sophomore campaign.  Unlike many of last year’s star rookies, Oden didn’t play big minutes, so there’s room for improvement due to both improved skill/experience (less fouling hopefully) and increased playing time.  I’d be thrilled to land him in the ninth, maybe eighth round.

SLEEPERS EVERYONE IS TALKING ABOUT

Lou Williams, PHI, PG, SG and Russell Westbrook, OKC, PG, SG

I group these guys together because a) everybody knows they’re in line for improvements across the board.  And b) there’s probably too much hype around them to call them sleepers.  Williams is a shoot-first PG, which doesn’t translate into great fantasy stats unless you make a high enough % of them like Monta Ellis.  As for Westbrook, I’m more hopeful than confident that he can get his FG% and TO in line.  Both will certainly improve next year, but it’s hard to call them sleepers if they don’t provide value where they’re drafted.

Anthony Randolph, GS, PF

Speaking of hype…  Randolph is another guy primed for a big jump in numbers.  And month-to-month, I think he’ll deliver.  Week-to-week?  Maybe not quite as consistent.  But with the minutes he’s expected to get, he should at least be able to avoid the roller coaster that was Tyrus Thomas’ first two and a half seasons.  The only question is, with Randolph being taken earlier and earlier in drafts, will he deliver good value?

SLEEPER SLEEPERS

Jason Thompson, SAC, PF

Enough people probably know about Thompson that he can’t be called a sleeper sleeper, but since he plays in a no-man’s land, I figured I’d slot him here.  Thompson finished last season averaging a double-double with 1.3 bpg in April, and he should get plenty of minutes next year as well.

Yi Jianlian, NJ, PF

New Jersey is officially in rebuilding mode (amazingly, last year they were actually trying to make the playoffs), which means Yi should get plenty of minutes.  He’s had some individual games that leave you wanting more, and with ample playing time he figures to be able to string some of those together this year.  A potential 1/1/1 guy.

Brandon Rush, IND, SG

When he started at SG last year, Rush averaged 17 and 5 with two 3PM and decent STL/BLK.  He’s starting at SG this year.  And the latest news out of Indiana has Mike Dunleavy (surprise) suffering further setbacks with his return from injury.  Granger, Ford, and Murphy will all get theirs, but Rush could provide value in the last round.

Chris Wilcox, DET, PF, C

Wilcox has been a sleeper in years past, but this year he finds himself in a pretty favorable situation.  Detroit’s frontcourt is as thin as it’s been in years, and someone will need to rebound.  Right now, Wilcox’s primary competition for that task includes Kwame Brown and Jason Maxiell.  Or rather, just Jason Maxiell.

No-Stats All-Star?  Not in fantasy basketball...

No-Stats All-Star? Thankfully not in fantasy basketball... (Robert Seale for The NY Times)

Shane Battier, HOU, F

Battier should get big minutes this year, because someone has to play on that team.  And with big minutes, he should clear that 1/1/1 hurdle, a great value in the last round of your draft.  Also, when else can you link to the New York Times on a fantasy basketball blog?

DeMar DeRozan, TOR, SG

DeRozan is slated to start on a TOR team with plenty of offensive firepower in that starting lineup, which means he will be called on for his defensive skills.  He could be a sneaky Jamario Moon-type player by season’s end.  You probably don’t have to draft him unless you’re in a very deep league, but keep an eye on him.  One thing is for sure, he will lead the league in capitalized letters per name.

10/22 UPDATE/ADDITIONS:

Gerald Henderson, CHA, SG, SF

With news of Raja Bell’s injury, D.J. Augustin looks like he should be upgraded in fantasy drafts.  However, the sleeper beneficiary of Bell’s injury is rookie Gerald Henderson, arguably the most athletic (and potentially defensive-minded) option at SG for the Bobcats.  I haven’t seen him play, but from what I’ve heard he could put up Ariza-like numbers (ORL Ariza not HOU Ariza).  Just someone to keep an eye on in deep leagues.

Roy Hibbert, IND, C

I pointed out some of Hibbert’s big lines from the pre-season already, and he’s been snatched up in late rounds in most drafts since he posted those lines.  While he’s put up some real duds since then (a good reminder that he’ll probably still lack consistency), I still like his potential as a second-year C.

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  1. #1 by George on October 22, 2009 - 4:03 pm

    Oh and I was wondering if I should pick Brandon Rush up and who I would drop. Lol sorry for all the questions. I’m in a league w/ my friends and I just wanna beat em really badly. And really, thanks for the help dude, you rock.

  2. #2 by George on October 22, 2009 - 4:04 pm

    Oops posted in wrong section lol.

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