Fantasy basketball draft rankings: 1-10
These rankings are based on a standard 9-category format, with a slight leaning towards H2H leagues, although differing strategies for roto leagues are noted when applicable.
| Player | Team | POS | Analysis | |
| 1 | LeBron James | CLE | SF | As if LeBron needs any more motivation, how about these two words: Contract year. LBJ’s FT% has increased the last three years after decreasing his first three as a pro. His only stat that might regress? REB, as the additions of Shaq and Leon Powe to Varejao, Hickson, and Big Z crowd the frontcourt. But on the other hand… |
| 2 | Chris Paul | NO | PG | Strictly by the numbers, CP3 is more valuable than LBJ. Guards who shoot 50% are rare, and we all know about the AST and STL. In roto leagues, I take CP3 first. In H2H leagues, I take LeBron b/c CLE has a superior schedule to NO. In fact, NO has one of the worst skeds in the league, especially during the fantasy playoffs. |
| 3 | Dwyane Wade | MIA | SG | The big question: Can he stay healthy two years in a row? Barring freak injuries, I see no reason why not. Although his FT% was erratic month-to-month last year, there’s not much to complain about when D-Wade drops 2+ spg and 1+ bpg as a guard. |
| 4 | Kevin Durant | OKC | SG, SF | I like Durant over Kobe because of a) his position eligibility b) his 1/1/1 potential and c) he’s still getting better. As a bonus in H2H leagues, OKC has a great playoff schedule. I have a feeling he might lead some squads to a fantasy championship… |
| 5 | Kobe Bryant | LAK | SG | Kobe is as consistent as they come, willing to play through broken fingers to deliver fantasy glory for his owners. (He probably owns himself in a dynasty league.) But his PTS, FTA, and 3PM have dropped the last four seasons. If you’re willing to take a slight risk, go with Durant or Granger. (On the other hand, the Lakers’ favorable sked in H2H formats might be enough to take Kobe ahead of those young’ns.) |
| 6 | Danny Granger | IND | SG, SF | While it will be hard for Granger to improve at the same rate as his first four seasons, there is one category with room for growth. DG managed to keep his FG% level last year despite taking 4 more shots per game. With Brandon Rush maturing and Dunleavy returning (eventually), I like DG’s FGA to stay relatively level, while his FG% ticks back above his lifetime avg of 45%. Also, his improving supporting cast should take some pressure off that achy knee. |
| 7 | Dirk Nowitzki | DAL | PF | Dirk Diggler is consistent to the point of being boring. With the exception of his slowly dwindling REB rate, his stats haven’t changed much over the last 4 years, and that’s what you’re paying for with him. Also, he’s played in 76+ games the past 10 seasons. I hope I didn’t just jinx him… |
| 8 | Amare Stoudemire | PHO | PF, C | Traditionally a top-5 pick, Amare could be a steal late in the first round thanks to a mediocre and injury-plagued 2008 campaign. With Shaq gone and the Suns’ shoot-early offense back, Amare will provide great value here. (I also expect him to get back to 1.5+ bpg without Shaq clogging the middle.) If you don’t want to be stuck without a stud center, I would consider taking him ahead of Dirk. |
| 9 | Al Jefferson | MIN | PF, C | Big Al is progressing well in his rehab. When healthy, he gives you exactly what you would expect from a stud center. The added bonus? He’s averaged 0.9 spg the last two years. Added bonus #2? He’s improved his FTA and FT% every year as a pro. While I’m not thrilled MIN will start a rookie PG not named Rubio, Big Al’s ability to create on his own should prevent a steep drop in efficiency. |
| 10 | Deron Williams | UTA | PG | He’s improved on all the major stats every year in the league, with the exception of FG% last year, when he got off to a horrible start after an offseason ankle injury. I’d expect the PTS and AST to level off around 20 and 11, with his FG% to trend back towards 50%. It’d be nice if he got more than a 3PM and STL per game, but D-Will is still the clear second-best PG in the league. |
