"Aflac!" -Gilbert Gottfried, all de time (Scott Gries/Getty Images)

"When I had fun, I got criticized. So we’ll see what happens when I’m serious.” -Gilbert Arenas, Sept 2009 (AP/Haraz Ghanbari)

It just might be the single-most important decision affecting fantasy leagues this season.  And the answer’s right here: I’m drafting Gilbert Gottfried in the third round of my Fantasy Jewish Comedians League.  Think about it.  He’s basically the Jason Kidd of Jewish comedians, consistently delivering across multiple platforms: television, film, even video games.

“Thanks for wasting my time, buddy.  But where the hell do I draft Gilbert Arenas?”  I’m glad you asked.  I’m also glad Erik over at Points in the Paint already answered this question, because it makes my life a whole lot easier.

So what’s the point of this article?  First, I’m going to touch on one great point Erik makes that I also alluded to in my Draft Rankings, as well as pose two important questions you should ask yourself on draft day.  And I’ll throw in a case study… FOR FREE!  (By the way, you’ll see I have Gilbert ranked #39.  I’ll explain why I have him down there, but you’ll probably have to draft him much earlier if you want him.)  Second, I’m going to touch on “The World” part of Gilbert vs. The World.  Namely, how does Agent 0′s return affect two other fantasy studs: Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison?

THE GILBERT PART

Okay.  This is it.  The third round’s about to begin.  Gilbert’s still on the board.  What do you do?  For me, it comes down to two (okay, three) questions:

a) Who else is on the draft board?

b) Who else is on my team?  (And who else do I want on my team later?)

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Third round. You're on the clock. What do you do? WHAT. DO. YOU. DO. (20th Century Fox)

When the third round (aka “my chance to draft Gilbert”) comes up, I think the first question you should ask is “Who else is on the draft board?“  Since I don’t think he’ll have a totally disastrous year where he misses 60+ games, there are two likely scenarios for Gilbert’s much-ballyhooed return to the NBA and fantasy basketball: Either he blows up and regains Top 10 fantasy status… or he regains near-All Star form, is inconsistent, misses a game every couple weeks, but is still a Top 50 player.

Gilbert’s average draft position (ADP) in Yahoo leagues is 31.5, which puts him almost smack in the middle of those two projections.  One way to look at it is, half of you think he’ll be a Top 10 guy again.  Half of you think otherwise.  To be honest, I’ve got no clue.  I even briefly contemplated taking him with the 13th pick of a 12-team H2H league, knowing that he’d be gone by my next pick, #36.  Now, that’s much too early considering Gilbert’s upside, but it gives you an idea of the kind of tricks Gilbert can play on you on draft day.

However, there’s one recent example that might point towards the latter, less exciting scenario: Dwyane Wade circa 2007-08.  When we last left Wade in his monster 2006-07 season, he was coming off a pair of surgeries to repair his dislocated left shoulder and left knee.  In 2007-08, a lot of fantasy managers took a (slight) risk and drafted Wade in the late first round, upon which Wade proceeded to slowly sabotage all their fantasy hopes and aspirations en route to missing 31 games and delivering sub-Wade numbers when he did play.

I know, I know.  Different player, different situation.  And all the reports out of Gilbertology, D.C., have Gilbert coming back better than ever.  It’s just something to think about, especially when you consider: Who else is on the draft board?  Or more specifically, who are some sure bets on the draft board that I wouldn’t be embarrassed to pick up even if Gilbert explodes?

Okay, there’s no such thing as a “sure bet” in fantasy, but here are some guys with higher ADP’s (going later) than Gilbert in Yahoo leagues:

David West
Rashard Lewis
Troy Murphy
Josh Smith
Rajon Rondo
Kevin Martin

Like I said, no such thing as a sure bet.  Each of these guys, with the exception of West, has their own issues this year.  10-game suspension, coming off a career-year, injuries, etc.  But I think they’re all safer bets than Gilbert over 82 games (or even 72 for Lewis).  Feel free to check out my Draft Rankings for further analysis on each guy.

So, after you’ve figured out who else is on the draft board and determined you still like Gilbert best, the next question(s) you should ask are “Who else is on my team?  (And who else do I want on my team later?)”

Erik over at Points in the Paint does a great job answering this question.  Specifically, he advises that you draft Arenas only if you also drafted a Top 5 guy.  I agree with that in concept, but with some slight tweaks.  (And if you’re reading, Erik, feel free to clarify anything I misinterpreted.)

It all comes down to managing risk.  And usually Top 5 guys are not only the best players, but also the most consistent ones.  And I totally agree when it comes to CP3, LeBron, Durant, and Kobe.  However, it might be just a tad risky to draft Wade, a Top 5 guy, and Arenas, considering both of their injury pasts.  Also, I think I’d be comfortable drafting Arenas with someone like Dirk, who’s just so consistent, or Deron on my team.  Or even Dwight Howard, depending on my strategy (although that one could get tricky).

And speaking of managing risk, if you take Arenas in the third round, it will also affect who else you want to draft later.  For instance, someone I’m targeting this year is Andrew Bynum.  But there’s no way I’m taking Arenas and Bynum on the same team.  (Well, not unless I reeeeeally manage my risk well everywhere else…)  Other potentially risky players you might have to avoid later if you draft Arenas:

Baron Davis
Jameer Nelson
Monta Ellis
Marcus Camby
Nene Hilario
Andrew Bogut

(Disclaimer: If you do draft Arenas, however, I’d still take risks in the last couple rounds, where’s it’s all about upside anyway.)

THE ‘THE WORLD’ PART

As for Butler and Jamison, I have them ranked at #22 and #30, respectively.  (Notice, both before Agent 0.)  And I like them to finish in the Top 30 regardless of whatever year Arenas has.  Of course, certain stats will be helped or hindered depending if Arenas plays or is a (gulp) surprise DNP.  First, let’s look at both of their averages during Arenas’ last two healthy seasons:

Jamison actually took and made more 3’s when Arenas was healthy than when Arenas wasn’t (1.5 and 1.4 the last two years), likely because Agent 0 freed him up for more open shots.  His PTS might decline a little this year, but you’re paying for consistent near-double-doubles and 3’s from the PF spot with Jamison anyway.  If he returns to those 06-07 numbers, I like him to crack the Top 30.

For Butler, he was pretty good those years as well, and more importantly, each of those years he improved considerably from the previous season.  I think his PTS will dip as well this year.  And more worrisome, his AST will likely drop from the 4.3+ apg he enjoyed the last couple years.  However, Butler added a 3-pt shot the last two years (1+ per game) and I see no reason why that won’t continue.  Butler’s biggest question mark is actually his health, but with the Wizards back in playoff contention, that should mean more motivation for him to stay healthy.  In theory.  Considering Butler was already improving year-after-year before Arenas was injured, I expect his numbers to fall somewhere between those 06-07 stats and the Top 10 (by averages) stats he put up the last couple years.

SO WHAT?

• I like Butler and Jamison to enjoy Top 30-caliber fantasy years, whether Arenas regains his Top 10 form or not.
• If you’re thinking of drafting Arenas, just make sure you’re not passing on a “sure bet” who’s still on the draft board, and also make sure you minimize risk on the rest of your roster.
• And since you’ve read this far, here’s a bonus tip: If you do land Gilbert, it might be worth picking up a cheap insurance policy later (in certain league formats, especially if your team roster is big enough).  Hint: His name is Randy Foye.