Good times! I only have one question. Which one's AI and which one's AI2 now? (NBA Media Ventures)

It’s official.  After a close call with the Knicks, followed by hours and hours of meetings with Philly’s top brass, Allen Iverson is un-retiring and returning to the 76ers.  According to Philadelphia’s own Stephen A. Smith, Iverson will step into the starting PG spot when he plays his first game Monday and is worth a roster spot in almost all fantasy formats.  (By the way, despite the content of my last several posts, this is not a 76ers fan blog.  It’s just the result of what I like to call Fantasy Dominos, starting with that broken jaw…)

But what exactly can we expect from AI?  And how will AI’s return affect Lou Williams, Andre Iguodala, and the other 76ers?  Well, allow me to answer my two questions with two more questions:

a) What will be AI’s new role on his old team?

b) What will be AI’s role once Williams returns?

From Stephen A.’s article:

“Team sources confirmed on Friday that Iverson would be a starter because Jordan had planned on starting Williams with rookie Jrue Holiday anyway, just to put some excitement and more ball-handlers into his Princeton-style offense.  So even once Williams returns from injury, he’d be in the starting lineup with Iverson.”

Oh.  Well that’s convenient.  As long as he stays healthy, Iverson is slated to start.  Does that mean an automatic return to AI’s numbers circa 2006, the last time he was in Philly?  Of course not.  Although the core of the roster is familiar, this is clearly Andre Iguodala and Lou Williams’ team now.  Or for the next 8 weeks, Iguodala’s team.  I can almost imagine the conversations between Iverson, Iverson’s agent, 76ers GM/President Ed Stefanski (since Dec 07), and head coach Eddie Jordan (since May 09) over the last few days in Dallas:

ED STEFANKSI

It’s an honor to meet you, Allen.  We’re all huge fans.

ALLEN IVERSON

You’re too kind.  But please, call me AI.

EDDIE JORDAN

Oh, no, that’s okay.  We’ll just call you Allen.  Wouldn’t want to disrespect the name your own mother chose for you.

IVERSON

Well then don’t worry, because my own moms calls me AI too.  So really.  Call me AI.

Awkward silence.

STEFANKSI

Well, here’s the thing.  We sort of already have an AI on our team.

Iverson stares blankly at Stefanski and Jordan.

STEFANSKI

You remember Andre?  (cutting off Iverson)  No, not the one you were traded for.  Andre Iguodala.  You know, our first round draft pick back in 2004?  One of only a handful of guys to average 18, 5, and 5 last year?  One of the most electrifying dunkers in the game today?

Iverson continues to stare blankly at Stefanski and Jordan.

JORDAN

Remember back in 2006, that lanky/athletic forward who always passed you the ball?

IVERSON

Ohhhhh!!!!!  AI-2.  Why didn’t you say so?

STEFANSKI

Well, here’s the thing.  Andre’s our AI now.  You’re going to have to be our AI-2.

Awkward silence.

IVERSON

Call me Allen.

STEFANSKI

Done.

Iverson gets up to leave, then pauses.

IVERSON

Or here’s a thought.  Instead of calling me AI, what if you call me your Brand-New AI?  Or just Sweet Lou?

STEPNASKI/JORDAN

Uh……

Fade out.

So, yeah, this isn’t the same 76er team Iverson used to play for.  There’s a lot more talent on this team than there was in PHI circa 2006 or Denver circa 2007.  In terms of the team’s talent level, it’s probably closer to Detroit circa 2008, when Iverson posted career lows almost across the board.

Back to the original question: What can we expect from Iverson?

(Disclaimer: Feel free to disregard any of this, as the only action you really need to take now is to pick up Iverson if he’s still available in your league.)

One would imagine Iverson will be controlling the ball a lot more before Williams returns.  So his value will likely be the tale of two seasons.  For the next 8 weeks, working with Iverson’s DET stats as a baseline, I like his AST to increase from the 4.9 he averaged in 08-09 as a Piston.  That DET team had more ball-handlers in Rodney Stuckey, Will Bynum, Rip Hamilton, and even Tayshaun Prince at times last year.  Now he’ll only have to deal with Iggy and rookie Jrue Holiday, who underwhelmed as a starter after a few nice performances as a sub.

However, the increase might not be as much as you’d expect, given that PHI now runs that Princeton offense.  I can almost picture the other half of those Dallas conversations (don’t worry, I won’t write it out), with Eddie Jordan telling Iverson that they need him, but they don’t need him to control the ball as much as he’s accustomed to.  And when Williams returns, I wouldn’t be surprised if those AST numbers dip back down to around 4.9 per game.

Then again, there’s also the chance that Eddie Jordan jumps ship on his Princeton offense and lets Iverson run the show a la Gilbert Arenas in Jordan’s WAS years, as John Cregan from ESPN points out.  And while I wouldn’t be surprised if this happens (purposefully if the season wanders away or accidentally if Philly just lapses into it at times), I’m not sure Jordan/Stepnaski/whoever will allow a one-year sideshow to get in the way of their building plans, especially in Jordan’s first year.  I mean, that’s why Memphis and New York already passed on the former MVP.  Of course, MEM has a clear youth movement and NY is playing for 2010-11, whereas who knows what PHI’s plan is…  So stay tuned.  (By the way, John Cregan is a really smart dude. And he’s not the only smart dude who thinks the Sixers are tanking the season.)

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Lou Williams

It’s not like the arrival of Iverson destroys Williams’ fantasy value.  It definitely makes it a lot harder to digest Williams’ goose eggs for the next 8 weeks, but once he returns, Williams should still have a chance to approach his current stats.

He was always more of a shoot-first PG anyway, now (assuming Stephen A.’s source has it right) he’ll be a pass-friendly SG in that Princeton offense.  So, yes, his AST will probably decrease some, but that’s not why you owned him in the first place.  As for his nice STL stats, as I mentioned in a previous post, they’re actually on par with his career per-minute STL numbers, and I don’t expect his MIN to decrease much when he returns.

What I’m actually most worried about is his FG% (and correspondingly, his PTS).  He was absolutely en fuego the first month of the season, and it will be hard to regain that shooting touch immediately (if ever) once he returns.  And since I don’t see him getting more shots, that means his PTS will probably drop too.  Or who knows, maybe he can regain his form right away, and he can maintain his AST levels with an added finisher in Iverson.  Personally, I think slight dips across the board are more realistic.

What do I do if I own Williams?

If you’re in the middle of the pack in your league, I’d probably cut Williams, especially in H2H leagues where Williams isn’t expected back until only 6 weeks or so remain until the fantasy playoffs.  If you’re safely in or near the lead in your league though, it might be worth holding onto him, as he will still be a viable fantasy player flirting with top 50 (by averages) status.  It all depends on how deep your league is (i.e., which FA are available).  At the exact moment he’s down to 46% ownership in Yahoo leagues (which will likely eventually drop to the 20s/30s), and I wouldn’t be surprised if a good number of the teams who keep him are in deeper roto leagues.  (As a side note, if you’re going to stash someone, I’d rather have Jameer Nelson.)

Whatever the case, at least Williams seems like he’s on board with the move, and he seems like a genuine guy, so I wouldn’t expect too much drama on his part.

Andre Iguodala

As an owner of Iggy in one league, I’m not very excited about this situation.  In the last 4 games without Williams (basically the last week), Iguodala didn’t shoot particularly well, but his across-the-board numbers as Philly’s undisputed go-to guy have him ranked #16 by averages in Yahoo leagues (versus a #46 ranking on the whole season).

Sure, Iggy could benefit from the fact that defenses (might) need to pay more attention to AI, but Iggy might be hurt by handling the ball less.  It’s the classic improvement in FG% and TO, but decrease in AST (and maybe PTS).  Add in the fact that there will likely be some growing pains the next couple weeks as Iverson gets adjusted to the new system, and as Iguodala gets readjusted to Iverson, and it’s really hard to predict how Iguodala’s net value will be affected, but I think it will unfortunately be worse than #16.

When Williams returns, Iggy’s numbers might slide some more (again with the FG% and TO improvements but PTS and AST decreases).  And, of course, there will be another round of growing pains.  Overall, I think it hurts Iguodala’s overall value on the year, although hopefully Iggy can be a consistent and more efficient player by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around in H2H leagues.  I guess we’ll have to wait and see if the efficiency counteracts the drops in counting categories.  To reiterate, this is not a “panic” scenario, more a “mild irritation” one.

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Elton Brand, Samuel Dalembert, Thaddeus Young, and the bench (starring Jrue Holiday)

How will the other 76ers be affected?  Again, we’ll have to wait and see for the exact changes, but it will likely be a mix of Iverson spreading the floor for everyone versus Iverson taking away touches from everyone.  Instead of making wild guesses, I’ll make a few observations:

As far as I can recall, Iverson has never really played with a true post player like Elton Brand.  The old Philly teams had a bunch of role players, Nene Hilario was hurt most of the time AI played in Denver, and Rasheed Wallace had his moments, but Brand is the first back-to-the basket kind of guy.  He bounced back nicely from a strained hamstring in his last game, so his owners can only hope having a new distributor won’t derail his resurrection too much.

Samuel Dalembert has really been coming on his last few games (most of the them without Brand).  Then again, Dalembert has had similar flashes the past several years, only to follow them up with a string of duds.  I don’t know what goes on in his head of course, but he seems like a guy who gets things done when he’s motivated.  And in a totally stat-less news item, Dalembert actually had a dream AI would rejoin the Sixers last week.  Maybe he can use his excitement as motivation to keep  dominating the boards.  If his numbers come back to earth, I certainly don’t think it will be because of AI.  He’s a hot pickup now, and I decided to hang onto him after picking him up for a spot-start last week.

Another guy who got off to a slow start but has picked it up recently is Thaddeus Young.  He’s also another guy who doesn’t need the ball in his hands to put up his numbers.  He’s a likely efficiency-up-but-points-down candidate as well.

Jrue Holiday takes an immediate hit to his borderline fantasy value, or rather potential value.  The funny thing is he might actually be a better player as a sub (matching up against the other team’s second unit and also being more of a go-to guy for his own squad).  As of now, I’m not rushing to own him in any leagues though.

Wow.  That was a lot more overanalysis than I was planning on.  I guess I have Virgin America/Google’s current Free Wifi promotion to thank/blame for that.  Here’s to blogging from the friendly skies…

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